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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
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EventHorizon
Member
I wouldn't say contraction, but consolidation. There will be fewer people that buy multiple consoles. The difference is that while this trend will affect the sales of first party software, it will have little effect on third party software. Note that there will probably be other trends that affect software sales like the winner-take-all buying culture causing fewer, bigger games to be made.
Also the Wii market was never really the same as the 360 and PS3's market so its drop is a separate thing unto itself. It'd kind of be like trying to portray the death of western movies as the death of the entire movie business when in reality is just meant that people didn't want to see westerns anymore.
Crimson_Gold
Member
It is true. The PS4 will definitely achieve PS4 numbers. I see PS2 numbers as a possibility if Sony is able to keep the price attractive.
Dragonborn
Member
Wouldn't the 360 drop be steeper this year? Last gen is dying a hard, swift death
There's nothing "Allegedly" about it. Google censors their shit even with safe search off. Bling does not.
Welfare
Member
I tried proposing a 50% drop in the Q1 thread, but some said the 360 wouldn't drop that fast. I sorta agree. Maybe anywhere between 40% and 45%, but I'm leaning towards 40%.
Thought it was interesting hearing Nadella say in the Q&A that Xbox Live now spans Xbox, PC, tablets, and mobile. He also mentioned several times that Xbox is one of the important areas of monetization across all those devices. I wonder when we're going to see them get more aggressive there, because right now it's still all heavily in Xbox One's corner.
Welfare
Member
I'm going to have to check this out later tonight. For research.
Can't fault his logic
Not as hard or swift as people seem to think. November cumulative Amazon rankings has it above XB1 even.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/2014-11/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#4
NPD for 2014 also show several games with the 360 version selling the most
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=972713&page=1
last gen is certainly not dead.
gamechanger87
Member
It was actually one of their biggest focuses when they started Bing. They had a whole team dedicated to it because they hoped it would allow them to take market share in the 20-30 male market.
There was a whole article on it awhile back.
Looking at the weekly, monthly and then yearly game sales charts proves how wrong you are. Last gen is alive and well. Console sales are obviously affected by new consoles being out, but game sales are still pretty strong.
Dragonborn
Member
Damn, and here I was celebrating its swift death. Last gen needs to disappear for good
theprodigy
Member
....you're not very good at this, are you
let's take a look at all the hardware in the top 100 in your link:
Xbox One w/ FIFA 15-42nd
PS4 w/ LBP3-51st
PS4-64th
Xbox 360 w/ FIFA 15-65th
Xbox One w/ 2x AC-69th
PS4 w/ GTAV+TLOU-70th
PS4 w/ Driveclub-80th
Wii U MK8 bundle-94th (huh?)
Xbox One-96th
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Good point.
But will this gen go for 9 years? The 360 and PS3 are still currently in production nearly a decade later. That's almost PS2 length of production.
While I think this will be a longer than 5 year cycle, Id' be surprised if the PS4 and Xbox One are still in production 9 years from now.
Fair point about the other two bundles but the 360 outsold the XBO unity bundle and PS4 GTA/TLOU bundle in November. I don't think the 360 is dropping as fast as people think considering the price drop.
Crimson_Gold
Member
I don't think that it will take that long for the PS4 to reach that mark. This gen will likely last ~7 years. If this last transition is any indication, the hardware and software sales for the PS4 and Xbox will fall off a cliff after that. I think the growth that will be seen over the next 2-3 years will be tremendous. I expect over 40 million sold through by next January. That is with a presumed price cut this fall. We will have to wait and see though.
The Artisan
Member
well, I hope you're right pal.
Jimmyfenix
Member
PS4 will get outsold by PS4
airmangataosenai
Member
And yet your previous post says this:
The number is actually probably closer to 1.2 million, but with the range you give at 1 million USA sales, it goes from 2-2.5 million with your numbers and 2.4-3 million with mine.... your 360 estimate range ends up having a floor lower than mine and yet my prediction is "Impossible"? I also feel it's worth pointing out you can accept a 60+% ratio for the XBO but nothing over 50% for the 360 despite it being likely that they plan to phase the platform out over the next few years.
I see 2 million as very unlikely, given that it only managed 700k in the US. The idea that retailers are ordering units worldwide at half the rate of the XB1 when any sales we see for the 360 in any territory we get numbers have the ratio much, much higher seems unfounded. Microsoft simply doesn't have the channels to sell hardware under the radar the way Sony does in emerging markets. The sales in the English speaking world represent the overwhelming majority of system sales for both platforms.
Why not? Literally every person here is predicting over half of the XBO's shipment last quarter is accounted for by confirmed US sales. Again, there for people giving estimates claiming it accounts for as high as 70% of total worldwide shipments.
makingmusic476
Member
Bullshit.
Crimson_Gold
Member
There's a chance this could happen. Sony would have to play their cards just right to make it happen though
Actually, I would say from which franchises are selling best, last-gen is pretty much dead to all but the most casual of 360/PS3 gamers. The only games selling better on last gen systems are sports games like Madden and FIFA, which are always the last to leave a console; Just Dance and Minecraft, the most recent successes among the expanded audience; and Call of Duty, which is pretty much the FPS version of Madden. Basically, the only gamer still buying last gen software is the gamer who only buys Call of Duty and Madden or FIFA every year and nothing else as well as the remnants of the formerly lucrative casual gamer market that the Wii and Kinect began.
Dragonborn
Member
And I messed up again, I meant PS1 not PS2. The PS4 has little to no chance of doing PS2 numbers. Man, I must be more tired than I thought
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Seems MS overshipped this quarter. Next quarter shipment will be low. Decrease 20% is a lot.
Banjo-Kazooie
Member
What? lol
The Artisan
Member
well, fuck. Ps1 numbers is much more feasible after all but it would be a breakthrough to say the least if Ps4 does Ps2 numbers.
anyways, you had a typo twice? first you said Ps4, then Ps2, but you really meant Ps1
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I thought they'd actually separate XBO from 360 shipments at least for Q4 since it did so well in Nov + Dec. Was wrong about that it seems.
I spent ten minutes trying to figure this out.
Portugeezer
Member
Yeah it's probably closer to 19:10
Final Verdict
Member
In the US I think they were selling like four X1s for every 360 during the holiday months, but it could be different for the rest of the world.
If X1 does have 75% split of that then that would put it at 4.95M shipped for Q4.
(meaning that they are probably around 11M+ shipped by the end of the year, and likely have sold through 10M+)
The Artisan
Member
I don't think anyone said that it was exactly that, but nearly 2 to 1 which it is.
Final Verdict
Member
How do you know they overshipped?
bananafactory
Banned
It's likely close to 2:1. Sony is sitting at 18.5 - 19 million sold through and MS is sitting somewhere around 11.5 million shipped if I read this thread right.
serversurfer
Member
Thirded. It'll be hard to get a real handle on their sell through before we get Sony's numbers, but shipments this large don't really seem sustainable.
Exactly. XB3 sell through could be 9M, and AMD's statement could still be considered accurate. AMD's input provides no useful information to us, really.
It sorta is, which is what I've been saying. One of the biggest markets in those 38 is Spain, where they probably sold less than 35k over 12 months. 28 of those countries only had access to it for less than four months. So if you figure 10 Spains at 35k each and a very generous 15k to cover four months of sales in each of the remaining 28, that only adds up to 770k. Add that to your 8.7M, and you only get 9.5M. And again, that seems a fairly generous estimate for those 38 countries. It's highly unlikely Tier 2 countries have averaged 15k each Sep-Dec. So to be clear, it seems like 9.5M would be the maximum, not the minimum.
It very likely will be, yes.
Do you work in retail?
True, but PS360 sold 170M in about 7-8 years, and PS2 was on the market for 10+, right?
Of course, PS2 made it all the way down to $99. Then again, PS3 hit 85M and is still $200-$250, depending on whether you get it with the HDD. Sony should see good reductions on the APU and RAM, and if flash gets cheap, they may be able to eliminate the HDD, which would save a bundle. So I think it's safe to say that PS4 has a lot of potential.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Because the same happened last year when the sales were 800k higher.
theprodigy
Member
It sorta is, which is what I've been saying. One of the biggest markets in those 38 is Spain, where they probably sold less than 35k over 12 months. 28 of those countries only had access to it for less than four months. So if you figure 10 Spains at 35k each and a very generous 15k to cover four months of sales in each of the remaining 28, that only adds up to 770k. Add that to your 8.7M, and you only get 9.5M. And again, that seems a fairly generous estimate for those 38 countries. It's highly unlikely Tier 2 countries have averaged 15k each Sep-Dec. So to be clear, it seems like 9.5M would be the maximum, not the minimum.
Canada and Australia will be putting in a lot more than Spain
edit: also willing to bet Italy has slightly more Xbox One sold than Spain
Final Verdict
Member
Regarding how much the X1 sales struggle outside of the US and UK market, I think the PS4 will easily take a 2:1 worldwide lead over the X1 in the coming months and will only expand on that lead.
Remember that Sony, in contrast to MS, still has the price-cut card up their sleeve.
Saleswise this generation really could be a retake of the 5th gen when all will be said and done.
Just swap the Saturn with WiiU and the N64 with X1
Hmm, I think the split could be slightly different, but have a similar trend to it. You can quote me on this for kicks and giggles years down the road when I'm horribly off (or spot on), but am thinking that at the end of the generation, the console split will look like:
[15M] Wii U
[55M] XB1
[130M] PS4
(and by "end of generation" I mean about one year or so after the next console iteration comes out)
...I think that PS4 could go on to sell more if it can have the legs in forign markets like the PS2 did.
Yes, in the US
Final Verdict
Member
ok, well yeah, I guess 'overshipping' is what you want to do to ensure you don't lose sales....
I never consider it 'overshipping' though, I see it as simply keeping the shelves stocked.
To me, overshipping would be when you have whole palates of unsold consoles just sitting in the warehouse for extended periods of time, which could be the case here, but i wouldn't know as i don't work retail for games.
serversurfer
Member
/nod Any minute now.
Fair enough. Got any numbers to plug in?
Can you give an idea of relative stock levels, in stores and in DCs? Like, 2:1, 3:1, or what? A current snapshot would be helpful, but an idea of what things were like at the end of the year would be better. Actually, both would be best of all. lol
Also, you should probably PM Bish.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Time for you to get Bish-checked.
Will do. Guess I should PM him or do I wait for a PM?
/nod Any minute now.
Fair enough. Got any numbers to plug in?
Can you give an idea of relative stock levels, in stores and in DCs? Like, 2:1, 3:1, or what? A current snapshot would be helpful, but an idea of what things were like at the end of the year would be better. Actually, both would be best of all. lol
Also, you should probably PM Bish.
My DC was over 5:1 last I checked. Unfortunately I wasn't checking during the holidays or even beginning of the year so can't help you there. Just saw this thread while working so I checked then. Our stores are starting to get the PS4 last of us bundle so those numbers could easily change in the future but I was comparing PS4 and the XB1 unity bundle
PS2 had stuff like GOW2 at the end they gave up on 360it few years ago they didn't care.
The Artisan
Member
did they ever make one of these for the 7th gen?
Wait, so that's 5 Xbone Unity:1 PS4 regular?
Looking forward to see "the mark" below your name...
What would be the point since it would show Wii at around 100 million and both 360 and PS3 basically tied at around 80 million? Neither is as impressive as the PS1's good victory or PS2's utter domination.
serversurfer
Member
I'd go ahead and PM him, in case he's not paying attention.
So it seems safe to say that whatever Sony's channel volume comes in at, XB3 will be "considerably higher, in terms of units."
Any ideas on sales rates? Assuming no new shipments, how many weeks to clear each stockpile?
The Artisan
Member
well, just simply because there's been one for the 5th and 6th I think it'd make sense to make one for the 7th. And the Wii sold over 10 million units more than the Ps3 and 360, so it is still a considerable victory.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Probably PM him. Ask Shogun or anyone else w/ the Bish-checked tag, they should know.
But it shouldn't be any big deal if you PM him first.