Fixed it yea, I got what you were getting at. But you are making an interpretation of what you think I'm saying instead of an actual direct translation.
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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
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Yea, I misread your comment and corrected myself. It would be nice you do that for some of the inferences you made about some of other people's posts.
irrotational
Member
Interesting that this thread is almost entirely about number of consoles sold as opposed to the 40 percent growth in Xbox live revenue...and how that may or may not compare to PSN.
What matters? Number of boxes or revenue per box?
What matters? Number of boxes or revenue per box?
No. Im making a direct translation. If you think that xbox one shipped 10.6m then that means that you also think Xbox 360 shipped 5.4m in CY2014.
That is an indisputable fact based on the official Microsoft sell in figures.
In regards to your second post above. I will correct myself and do correct myself when required.
test_account
XP-39C²
The total revenue is the most important thing. Unfortunately, percentage alone isnt much to go on. It just tells us that there has been an increase, but it doesnt tell anything about how much money we're talking about. PSN revenue could in theory have increase with for example 20% and still have been more total revenue compared to Xbox Live. So a comparison with percentage only doesnt tell us much.
That said, i think that both Xbox Live and PSN should see a nice increase in revenu because digital sales of full games seems to be more common in this generation compared to before.
EDIT: I fixed a typo.
Welfare
Member
Percentages are completely useless without a number to go with it.
$50 of revenue was made one quarter. Next quarter revenue increases by 40%.
Good job you just made an extra $20.
I just wish Microsoft would actually think of us Europeans. The amount of services that platform gets in US compared to the rest of the world is just unfair. If they want to actually compete they need to be aggressive about it and in UK, they are just treating us like dirt.
I really want one, but until they focus their strength on EU market, I won't be getting one.
I really want one, but until they focus their strength on EU market, I won't be getting one.
Handy Fake
Member
I'm a PS4 owner, so I'm not sure if I should be commenting. But from the outside looking in, this does seem to be the case. I find it to be a very odd approach.
serversurfer
Member
Sure, that could've happened. I'll further stipulate the server logs are all stored in escrow over at Apple, just waiting for the properly phrased Tweet to be sent to Phil to unlock the PGP keys.
So what? Since that data is 100% solid, maybe we should use it for our extrapolations. So, 1M units every 12 hours Oh, wait, should be every 11 hours tops, since people need time get it home and unwrapped.
Extrapolation can be useful in small doses. For example, based on the fairly steady 40% drops we observed in XB2 shipments in the two quarters that followed the launch of the XB3, and a third if you include the pre-launch quarter, it seems reasonable to guesstimate a 40% drop in the following three quarters to give us an idea of how much both XBoxen have shipped, more or less. In fact, that produced a number we all seem to agree with. Extrapolating sell through from two months of launch data to determine "known," minimum sell through after 14 months strikes me as less reasonable, no matter how accurate the input data. Does that seem like a reasonable stance to take?
Okay, but wasn't your original argument based on the notion that this information came from third parties like NPD, so to question Sony or MS was to question NPD themselves?
Anyway, see above. As I've said from the beginning, the accuracy of the 3M figure was never the issue, but rather, a pointless tangent. Even if the 3M figure is perfectly accurate and not subject to even unintentional error of only a few percent, I don't think you can extrapolate it out over 7x the original sampling period and 3x the number of countries and then say you know without question what the absolute minimum sell through is.
I'm saying that Microsoft's sell-through figures from a year ago may not be particularly relevant today, regardless of their accuracy.
Regarding 1, no, because again, this isn't simply a regurgitation of data provided by the tracking companies, as you admit. Both platform holders then apply their own methodologies to arrive at a final, published figure, and I have no reason to think those methodologies are identical. Regarding 2, that's why I tried to say it was pointless to even argue about this, because in the end, yes, I'm required to prove my claims and MS aren't. Have they shown you the receipts? Yeah, I haven't seen them either. They say, "This is what we've estimated," and that's that. So as I said, no point in arguing about it.
Yes?
If I'm unable to say anything concrete about 4Q2014 based on Official Data from 4Q2013, how come you are?
Okay, then 8.7M would be the absolute minimum sell through. You've estimated an additional 1.3M sales from there, based entirely on a small sampling of data from a long time ago, and then declared those sales to be etched in stone. What if your estimate just wasn't very good, and T1.5+ sell through was only 1M? That's entirely impossible? Because you say so?
Sorry, I could've been more clear. I didn't mean that most of the 10M came from the 3M figure. I meant that the 1.3M mostly came from manipulations you applied to a number originally derived by subtracting observed sales from claimed sales.
As to the rest of it, yes, that's exactly my point. You've shown the sales floor to be 8.7M, and you estimate 1.3M more. My problem is that you then claim you have proven sell through can be no less than 10M, when you've done nothing of the sort. All you've done is come up with an estimate that produced the 10M figure, and said, "But it could be way more!! It just can't be less!!" Well, by your own admission, it could be 1.3M less, as unlikely as that would be. Could it be 100k more? Very fucking likely. Could it be 100k less? ALSO VERY FUCKING LIKELY. Do you seriously not understand what I'm trying to say here?
Umm, because the number of unsold units is kinda relevant here? =/
/sigh I dunno, man. What gave you the right to call it hard to believe? Maybe it was that.
Sure, that's cool. Stocks are meaningless. No sense even discussing it, since it may lead us astray from the cold, hard truth of extrapolation.
Yeah, too bad that rule only seems to apply to me. You provide NPD/GfK data showing 8.7M sales and claim that means we "know" a minimum of 10M have been sold. Where's your GfK data that allows you to make such bold claims? Any number greater than 8.7M is just your best guess, and nothing more.
I thought 4 was true because 1 actually wasn't. Putting sell through in their financials would make them liable, but are they held to the same standard of accuracy for statements made to the press? Isn't 4 what they're actually on the hook for, and 1 is simply marketing? Do press releases get them in trouble with the SEC like their filings do? Honest question.
Regarding 2, you're right; my bad. I recall them breaking out the dates by region, and thought they mentioned the trackers at the same time.
My actual point was that both companies freely admit that to some extent, these numbers are self-generated, and are not actually Gospel directly from the mouth of NPD.
They thought that because they had too much confidence in their ability to extrapolate.
What I actually said from the very beginning was that while there was a possibility of small error in Microsoft's number whether through malfeasance or incompetence there wasn't much point in bickering about the possibility. My argument all along has been that you can't make extrapolations like this and then declare them to be the minimum sell through. You can account for 8.7M units. That's the floor on sell through. You may estimate they sold an additional 1.3M units, but that's only an estimation; it doesn't actually raise the floor.
My other point was that if we have other information which indicates your estimate was a bit high, then it's possible your estimate is a bit high. Your estimate doesn't stand as proof that the other information is misleading.
The Artisan
Member
I guess. But I expected the total number to be much lower.
I honestly didn't check too much last year. I was checking PS4 shipments for people who were trying to find a PS4 but that's about it. XB1 we had in stock at this point last year so I wasn't looking at them (kinda wish I did to get an idea)
serversurfer
Member
Fair enough, and thanks again. <3 Nice tag, BTW.
This would get them a lower bound, but as not everybody turns on their console on day one (e.g. when bought as gift) would seriously lowball the numbers.
In other words, it seems unlikely that the reported day one sell-through is console activations.
huntingzibod
Member
Just tryin to get my head round this stuff:
Let me work this out:
THis time last year MS reported 3.9m Xbox One's shipped.
Of those, their PR admitted to 3.0 m sold.
THe next quarter sold 1.2 million, and shortly after they announced 'over 5 million shipped'.
http://www.polygon.com/2014/4/17/5626130/xbox-one-sales-5-million
The next quarter they combined XBOX unit sales, and that was 1.1 m.
http://www.geekwire.com/2014/microsoft-sold-1-1m-xbox-one/
So by the end of june, the absolute maximum number of XBOX One units that could have been sold to retail would be 6.2m, however sales of XBOX 360 are included in 1.1 m of that. It could be anything from half to a quarter of that - nobody knows.
The following quarter they noted that they had sold 2.4 'combined' xbox units again. This was when the XBOX One shipped to 13 new territories, including 100k to China alone.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-10-23-xbox-sold-2-4m-consoles-last-quarter
That brings us up to a maximum of 8.6m X bones in retail by the end of September, with the same caveat as the previous quarter.
Finally, we get the last result here - 6,6 m sold, bringing is to 15.2m, with the same caveats as before.
But - the press release from mid November with the 'we will soon have shipped over 10 million to retail' tells us that at least 10 million of that 15.2m are XBOX Ones.
Again, this is only shipped, not sold. How many of that total are XBOX 360s?
Estimate time:
I saw a 40% decline mentioned somewhere - but on that basis that would a minimum around 3.12 of that figure are XBOX 360s.
That would leave the remainder, or 2.08m of them are XBOX Ones. That means the XBone shipped up to 12.08 at the end of December.
Of course, that would mean a dramatic collapse of XBOX 360 sales - it sold 3.5m during the launch quarter of the XBOX One, and figure would require a total collapse of global 360 sales during most of 2014.
As for sold in vs sold through?
Given the 3:4 from the same period last year, and the reports of abundant Xbone stock - that would leave sell through at just over 9m and stock of 3m.
Gut feeling is that this is overly excessive, but then again, we don't know XBOX 360 shipments from April 2014, and there might have been significantly more than the 3 odd million I suggested earlier.
What is telling is that:
1. MS have not updated with global installed users since January 2014.
2. MS have not updated on global shipment numbers of XBOX One only since November, and even then it was a definite 'this is what we have shipped now' figure.
3. We know there is a lot of XBOX One stock available thanks to insiders here.
Let me work this out:
THis time last year MS reported 3.9m Xbox One's shipped.
Of those, their PR admitted to 3.0 m sold.
THe next quarter sold 1.2 million, and shortly after they announced 'over 5 million shipped'.
http://www.polygon.com/2014/4/17/5626130/xbox-one-sales-5-million
The next quarter they combined XBOX unit sales, and that was 1.1 m.
http://www.geekwire.com/2014/microsoft-sold-1-1m-xbox-one/
So by the end of june, the absolute maximum number of XBOX One units that could have been sold to retail would be 6.2m, however sales of XBOX 360 are included in 1.1 m of that. It could be anything from half to a quarter of that - nobody knows.
The following quarter they noted that they had sold 2.4 'combined' xbox units again. This was when the XBOX One shipped to 13 new territories, including 100k to China alone.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-10-23-xbox-sold-2-4m-consoles-last-quarter
That brings us up to a maximum of 8.6m X bones in retail by the end of September, with the same caveat as the previous quarter.
Finally, we get the last result here - 6,6 m sold, bringing is to 15.2m, with the same caveats as before.
But - the press release from mid November with the 'we will soon have shipped over 10 million to retail' tells us that at least 10 million of that 15.2m are XBOX Ones.
Again, this is only shipped, not sold. How many of that total are XBOX 360s?
Estimate time:
I saw a 40% decline mentioned somewhere - but on that basis that would a minimum around 3.12 of that figure are XBOX 360s.
That would leave the remainder, or 2.08m of them are XBOX Ones. That means the XBone shipped up to 12.08 at the end of December.
Of course, that would mean a dramatic collapse of XBOX 360 sales - it sold 3.5m during the launch quarter of the XBOX One, and figure would require a total collapse of global 360 sales during most of 2014.
As for sold in vs sold through?
Given the 3:4 from the same period last year, and the reports of abundant Xbone stock - that would leave sell through at just over 9m and stock of 3m.
Gut feeling is that this is overly excessive, but then again, we don't know XBOX 360 shipments from April 2014, and there might have been significantly more than the 3 odd million I suggested earlier.
What is telling is that:
1. MS have not updated with global installed users since January 2014.
2. MS have not updated on global shipment numbers of XBOX One only since November, and even then it was a definite 'this is what we have shipped now' figure.
3. We know there is a lot of XBOX One stock available thanks to insiders here.
You can't use that ratio like that. After the initial badge it makes sense to try to keep the shipment numbers as close to sell through as possible. Of course there are seasonal variations, but since every single console ties up capital until it is sold to the end-user, the time from assembly line to consumer's home should be minimized.
If MS handles their logistics properly, the sold through should always trail the shipment by a million or so. (And if they improve their logistics, they'll shrink the gap.)
Great post. But I seriously doubt that would be as many as 3 million X1's in warehouses. Even 2 million is a bit of a stretch but is likely possible.
I think you're too quick to extrapolate from the available data.
The actual insiders that post their numbers always point out how what they show isn't comprehensive and sometimes even limited to a single region in a country at a given point in time.
Final Verdict
Member
I agree!
Though for the holiday I think the a little more than 1M excess would not be a stretch.
I personally am thinking ~11.75M shipped, ~10.5M sold through.
Anyways, I guess it is sort of pointless with us trying to predict it if MS never gives any solid numbers again....
I'm sure they will eventually, but it will probably be a while before that happens.
I think their goal for this year is to hit 20M units sold in, with 20M units sold through as a stretch goal. I think it could be possible if they play thier cards right with a global price drop, and a good software line up this holiday (Fable legends, Quantum Break, Forza 6, Tomb Raider, and capped off with Halo 5 Guardians)
20 million sold through is extremely unlikely. They'll be lucky to even hit 18 million this year, especially if Sony drops the price of the PS4 to $299
Multiple reports though and based on the fact that overshipping in Q4 of CY2014 is a trend from Microsoft that we have already seen.
However with that being said, I do expect Microsoft sales to increase (US only) YOY for January 2015 unless hardware overall takes a dip.
Jarvin98 said:
Yeah, they only sold 7.5 (if you believe some people's prediction) and Ps4 sold 14.3M (undisputable sold-through hmmmmm). Up up....there is that imaginary 2:1 ratio again. Damn it
Edit: we'll never know anyway because they're hiding the numbers with Xbox 360 and they won't tell the split. Meh, Sony did it with the PS3 until they passed it. But this first quarter for Xbox One is going to be brutal, nothing in the pipeline at all.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
No way they can hit 20m, considering how weighted their sales are to the US market.
They'd need to somehow sell around at least 6m in NA alone in the next 10 months and hope for hugely optimistic sales in Europe/ROTW.
Final Verdict
Member
They sold ~7M+ this past year, and that was with the price at $500 for the first five months.
This year they have a lower price, and much much stronger software coming out for BOTH first and third party. I don't think it is a stretch to say that they could sell ~8.5-9M this year.
As far as I know, consoles are almost always up (in sales) for their second full year of the market.....Wii U sales (for example) were up 18% this past year. (numbers from FY15 Results).
If we assume that X1 sales were about 7.2M (sold to retailers) this past year (obviously just a guess), and apply a 20% growth ratio to it, then you get ~8.7M units sold in for next year, and assuming that they are at 11.5 sold in LTD, that would put us at 20.2 sold in at the end of next year LTD.
DenogginizerOS
BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
If there are so many XB1s lying around in inventory, how come every single Wal-Mart in my area is out of XB1's with the Master Chief Collection and does not have the console by itself (only AC Unity Bundles)? Are all of these XB1s in inventories AC Unity bundles? Seems odd to me if they are.
Handy Fake
Member
Is it not worldwide? I just scanned the last few pages. MS are renowned for channel stuffing.
Someone who was in retail said on another thread that they had thousands of the AC Unity bundles in their warehouse. I wouldn't be surprised if they stuffed inventory with the ACU bundle.
I was referring to sold through numbers. Sold in seems far more likely to hit 20 million while the PS4 will be at or very close to 40 million.
Are Unity bundles not Xboxes? The MC bundle was a black friday bundle. The fact that there are still plenty of Unity bundles proves their were too many shipped considering its almost February and the promotion was scheduled to end Janurary 4th.
serversurfer
Member
I'm not sure how you applied the 40% drop, but you should've come out with ~11.8M Bones at the other end. We've been taking the XB360 shipments from the year prior, and applying a 40% drop before subtracting from the total shipment. So if they say they shipped 1.5M total this year, and they'd shipped 1M XB360 the year prior, then we assume XBone shipments were 1500k - 1000k*0.6 = 900k, give or take. Make sense?
Well, no, that's not really how the supply chains work. It has nothing to do with sell-through percentage, or anything like that. In short, it takes a long time for a given piece of hardware to make the journey from the factory to the store shelf. It costs money to warehouse stock, so you generally want your stock levels as low as possible, with the next shipment arriving just as the last unit is being sold. It's known as just-in-time logistics, and it's popular because it saves a lot of money.
So yeah, supply chains are basically measured in weeks. The amount of stock you have in the channel at any given time the volume will be roughly equal to the next 5-6 weeks worth of sales, plus a buffer to cover any random fluctuations in demand. For example, Sony had shipped 10.2M at the end of June, and they announced "over 10M sold through" about a week in to August.
That's how it's supposed to be anyway. This holiday, Sony's stocks were a little lower than they would've normally liked, at least in mainland Europe. They seemed able meet holiday demand for the most part, but the amount they have in the channel currently might not last as long as they'd normally hoped, so they'll need to step up shipments a bit to cover the difference.
On the other hand, XBone seems to be overstocked. With half the rate of sales, their channel volume measured in units should be about half of what Sony's is, but there have been indications that MS actually have more volume in the channel currently.
So how many XBone have actually been sold? Right now, it's hard to say. It seems like they have more units in the channel than Sony do, but we don't know how many PS4s that is yet, and even when we do, it will be hard to say exactly how many more Bones are sitting in the distribution centers. Also, they'll only be clearing Bones at about half the rate they're clearing PS4s, so it will be that much longer before any more Bone orders are placed at all, which will reflect in MS shipments over the next quarter or two.
True, but Bish indicated this wasn't an isolated incident, and that it was indeed noteworthy levels of stock. Also, we have reports out of Germany of major retailers being unable to move stock, with at least one store manager taking it upon himself to cut the price 70. Even in the US, when the price was scheduled to go back up to $399, Amazon continued selling AC bundles for the Black Friday price of $329. Since the official price was $399, it would seem special efforts were being made to be rid of the stock, whether entirely from Amazon or backed by MS in some way. Then, there's the nearly immediate return to the $349 MSRP, which would also seem to indicate excessive stock.
It's worth noting that the disKinect didn't really seem to increase overall demand for XB3, at least in the US. They announced it early, so there were some sales that shifted from one month to the next, but after that, sales seemed to return to normal levels.
MS made a lot of hay this year with free games on top of hardware discounts as deep as $120. They were also helped by the fact that by comparison, Sony did very little in the way of holiday promotion, and probably had comparatively weaker exclusives. While we can certainly expect MS to continue to be aggressive this year, but I think it would be a mistake to assume the dragon isn't starting to wake. Sony have pretty big games already scheduled for this year, and a lot of their major studios have been fairly quiet. Yamauchi has hinted that GT7 will be coming 2015/2016, and if we take that to mean "fall or spring," then we could see an E3 announcement and possibly a Prologue by the end of the year. Then you have teams like Santa Monica, London Studios, Media Molecule, Guerilla's second team Morpheus may even launch this year. To top it all off, $299 is a real possibility for PS4. Like I said, last holiday MS made up a good amount of ground in the US by being as much as $120 cheaper than the PS4, but it's going to be a lot harder for MS to undercut Sony so significantly when the latter are already at $299. It seems pretty unlikely we'll see Bones for $180 this holiday, even in the US. Plus, Uncharted versus Tomb Raider, just as an example. It's going to be very difficult for MS to present the same value differential they presented this year.
XBone may make some YOY growth in the US, but there's also a good chance that not-US has are reaching the tipping point in favor of PlayStation, if they haven't already, so overall, MS may lose sales, even if they pick up a few more in the US.
IIRC, the MCC bundle was kind of an odd duck. It was only available at Walmart on Black Friday, but in "unlimited quantities." Basically, they had some amount of stock in each store, and after they ran out, they sold vouchers that rang up as an XBox, but after like 10 days, they automatically reverted to being a gift card of equal value. If the customer took action prior to that by going online and confirming they did want the Bone, then instead of reverting to a gift card, they'd go ahead and fulfill the order with delivery promised by Christmas.
So because of that, the MCC bundle was in effect, build to order. So they may have sent out 100k for BF, then assembled 60k more to fulfill any vouchers that were redeemed, but there would be no need to build any more than that. Therefore, the only stock available now is just any pockets that didn't sell out on BF, and haven't sold since.
Agreed. But we have enough data in order to make an accurate prediction. ROtW which accounts for 12 markets sold through 1.2m in total in CY2013 which was 2 months of tracking. In CY2014 we have real evidence that shows 3 out of those 12 markets sold through 1.2m on their own, and that's excluding December sales for 2 of those markets. So we can see that sales in tier 1 increased in CY2014 compared to CY2013, one of the reasons being that the tracking period was longer and that 3 of the 12 markets more than doubled sales. And whilst we don't have all the evidence to show that the other 9 markets would have doubled it's clear to see, even based on figures we have for Spain, that sell through remained flat at the very least, if not higher.
Yup, MS use NPD and GFK data in order to come to these sell though figures, so do Sony. Even though none of them credit them.
I'm not extrapolating it out over that many countries. We have hard data for 4 markets in CY2014 and 13 markets in CY2013. It's clear that all 4 markets saw increased sell through in CY2014 vs CY2013, more than double, even triple in the UK & US. I've already explained the reasons why (longer tracking period etc...) It's reasonable to assume at the very least that sales in the other 9 markets will at the very very least remain flat YOY.
Even the Wii U remained flat in the USA in it's first year compared to launch year and the Wii U saw the biggest drop of any console ever.
They're relevant when you have the up to to date data to compare to the older data. (referring to US, UK, FRA, GER)
But then you can't say that you think sell through is X like you did before. If there are too many variables then you simply step back and say you can't come to a decison. Instead you came to a decision based on the numbers we have, except you didn't believe MS could sell that many. That's not exactly proving anything is it?
Because channel is different. That's looking at the shipped number vs the sold through number. Microsoft combined shipments for Q2-Q4 so it's impossible to say that Microsoft must have shipped X amount. We can estimate a certain number, but we can't say 100% that this number must be the exact number.
We have data for 2014 as well and are able to use that in order to create a minimum sell through model. There are a number of factors and trends taken into account. The 1.3m number uses these factors and trends. In fact 0.25m of that number would account as a minimum for Germany and the UK in just December alone when Europe (and the world) see's the biggest uptake in retail sales across all categories, tbh it should be higher, but again I've low balled it remember in November Black Friday (which is not as popular as Christmas) the UK sold more than 110k Xbox One's. So it's not unreasonable to say that Xbox One in the UK would sell more than 200k in the entire month of December. That's just simple maths. + Xbox One was tracking as a top seller in the UK retail market.
Which leaves around ~1.05m as an absolute minimum, likely it should be less than that for the RotW which is 37 markets. And I've shown how we can get to that number.
Understand. The bit above should answer this. Again, this is a low balling from myself. So being able to arrive at 10m so confidently should say something.
If PS4 has 1m in the channel, we cannot say Xbox One will have more, we cannot say Xbox One will have less. It's impossible to put a figure on X1 channel units as we don't know what Xbox One shipped. We can put a figure on PS4 though.
It's pointless trying to consider this. And same goes to the poster above who did the whole 3/4 calculation as you pointed out.
When I say hard to believe, I mean "surprising", "unexpected". Not "omg that can't be true, Microsoft must be lying to us".
Look at my Blackberry in the UK example.
Yes, it's an estimate, but it's an estimate based on actual data and is an estimate that has been calculated to work out an absolute minimum.
Well they could include sell through if they want in their financials, but they recognise revenue on shipments. Hence why they post shipped figures.
Press releases can get them in trouble if very misleading, but at the end of the day those sell through figures don't contribute to the financials as they recognise revenue on shipped figures, if it sells to a user after that it doesn't matter. (well it does but not in their financials)
They rarely do, but it's always from market research companies as well as what they're able to estimate.
Sell through is always estimated. You're never going to get a 100% accurate sell through number when you're talking about millions and millions of product through hundreds of thousands of retailers.
I get it. But you really can't just call out Microsoft and not include Sony or Nintendo. And we can't say company A is more likely to over estimate and company B is more likely to underestimate.
We can account for 8.7m units. But it doesn't stop us using that very high number in order to come to a minimum sell through.
Other information such as?
If you're talking about German retailers and such then you have to take both that and the overall data into account. We know that sales in Germany were 100k in CY2013 and 170k for 11 months in CY2014. We can still see that sales were ok in CY2014 and likely are over 200k when you factor in month 12. Yet we still see reports of Xbox One not selling out in Germany.
The issue isn't that it's not selling, the issue is that they have too much stock. Whilst 200k is a low number, it's not zero. The Xbox One still sells in Germany but it's likely that MS have been over shipping to the German market. Simple supply and demand.
I agree with the overall post you made.
But in regards to sell through, 3 million in channel is very much impossible as that would imply that 9m was sold through at the very least, despite knowing that we can get to 8.9m as a very minimum without even accounting for a further 37 markets worldwide.
We can't use a ratio for channel units. That's not how it works.
We know there is a likelihood MS over shipped, and it's something that I agree with. But we don't know how much they over shipped and what that means for channel. The Xbox One is available in a lot less markets than the PS4 so we could even see the Xbox One with lower number of units unsold.
Again, this shows me that you don't take everything into account.
In terms of sell through we can say that for CY2014 the minimum is 7m for X1. For PS4 it's certainly 14.3m which is a 2:1 ratio.
In CY2013 however we get 4.2m vs 3.0m in favour of PS4 which is a 1.4:1 ratio.
No doubt we'll more than likely see a 2:1 ratio again in CY2015, if not more.
But just because we see 2:1 in CY2014 doesn't automatically mean it's 2:1 in comparison to the 18.5m figure.
You only need to look at the who I was quoting To understand the context of the conversation to know we were referring to CY 2014. CY2013 wasn't relevant to the conversation so why would I take that into account?
Final Verdict
Member
Ok....In my post I think I said that 20M sold in was likely thier goal, with 20M sold through as a 'stretch goal'. (Stretch goals are usually not realistic, but gives them something more to reach towards) I think that if the play all their cards right (like dropping price to $299) they could reach 9M sold through, but that they probably won't, and if Sony drops the price of the PS4 too, then that could really hurt them.
Well, I can't really argue against you on the dis-kinect thing (ans there is no way to know what would have happened if they didn't unbundle), but I think that sales would have collapsed had they not made that move, and I think it took a while for the news to reach the broader consumer base that the X1 was cheaper.
Now I think your idea that the PS4 will drop to $299 is quite unlikely. While Sony could do that, they would be cutting a lot of profit, and if you think about it, the US and UK are the only regions where they need to be price competitive....PS4 could outsell X1 in Europe 2-1 easily this year if Sony decided to stick to €399.
I think they may drop the price $50 (if they drop it at all), though they can probabally get by at $400 with a few aggressive bundles.
Xbox on the other hand, need to drop to $299/€299 to stay competitive, especially if Sony decides to do a $50 price drop, or some aggressive bundles...
Now as far as non US territories....that is hard for me to predict as I live in the US myself...
I think that this year's exclusives might be more appealing to European gamers than this past year with games like Forza 6, Fable Legends, Quantum Break, and Screamride which are all made by European Developers (plus probably a Rare game).....
But I really am not sure if this would boost sales, only time will tell....
if Microsoft over ship 900 K to 13 markets, how many did they overship to 41 markets? It would be safe to assume that there are at least 1.2 million in warehouses around the world
That 44k LTD includes launch day.
The 3DS sells that much in an off-week. I don't know how you could do much worse; the PSTV is selling three times as much.
It's clear that the only markets that matter for the Xbox One is the USA and UK (and 1% of China).
The Xbox One is doing almost as good as the PS4 in these regions thanks to price drops and marketing but the PS4 is still selling through many more units, and when you add in RotW it's clear to see that the number of PS4's being sold is much much higher than the Xbox One.
I still expect the Xbox One to do well in the USA and UK but the PS4 will remain the market leaders there imo. However, without the Xbox One selling in the rest of the world I'm fairly certain we won't see it do that well this year and it could potentially start to slip up against the X360 and PS3 which it's currently tracking ahead of.
Microsoft have lost a lot this gen and they'll need to do a lot if they want a console as successful as the 360 was.
Here are cumulative shipments for PS3 and 360 for CY2008 and CY2007
360 CY2005: 1.50m
360 CY2006: 10.40m
360 CY2007: 17.70m
PS3 CY2006: 1.70m
PS3 CY2007: 10.40m
PS3 CY2008: 21.10m
One CY2013: 3.90m
One CY2014: ~11.5m-12.0m
One CY2015: ????
PS4 CY2013: 4.50m
PS4 CY2014: ~19.50m+
PS4 CY2015: ????
The Xbox One is doing almost as good as the PS4 in these regions thanks to price drops and marketing but the PS4 is still selling through many more units, and when you add in RotW it's clear to see that the number of PS4's being sold is much much higher than the Xbox One.
I still expect the Xbox One to do well in the USA and UK but the PS4 will remain the market leaders there imo. However, without the Xbox One selling in the rest of the world I'm fairly certain we won't see it do that well this year and it could potentially start to slip up against the X360 and PS3 which it's currently tracking ahead of.
Microsoft have lost a lot this gen and they'll need to do a lot if they want a console as successful as the 360 was.
Here are cumulative shipments for PS3 and 360 for CY2008 and CY2007
360 CY2005: 1.50m
360 CY2006: 10.40m
360 CY2007: 17.70m
PS3 CY2006: 1.70m
PS3 CY2007: 10.40m
PS3 CY2008: 21.10m
One CY2013: 3.90m
One CY2014: ~11.5m-12.0m
One CY2015: ????
PS4 CY2013: 4.50m
PS4 CY2014: ~19.50m+
PS4 CY2015: ????
Welfare
Member
I think with a little bit of luck, MS will be able to keep the Xbox One ahead of the PS360 for at least next year. 2016 though? Maybe a slim revision could keep it ahead for another year (at least against the 360), but then after that, it'll fall behind.
I can certainly see X1 selling in more than 20 million cumulative units by the end of CY2015. How many more than 20m remain to be seen. I'm also fairly certain that US and UK will account for the majority of X1 sell through and maybe even shipments.
My prediction for this year is
PS4: More than 37 million cumulative units sold in
XB1: More than 21 million cumulative units sold in
WiU: More than 13 million cumulative units sold in
This would give current gen a cumulative total of 71.0m+ consoles sold in.
Compared to Last gen which had more than 83.5m+ consoles sold in during the same time frame. (Wii at 45m)
I got laughed at in the previous thread for suggesting 21 million units sold in for X1 by the end of 2015 but knowing what we know now I'd say a lot of people would agree with me. Especially when I was able to predict this time last year that we would see 11.7m Xbox One's sold in and we now know that approximately 11.5m-12.0m were sold in. I may revise my PS4 prediction once we get actual sell in data. My prediction for last calender year is below.
What's the rationale behind the nearly 50% increase in XB1 shipments? 21 million would mean that in this calendar year it'll ship nearly as much as it has ltd, and that includes two holiday seasons. What going to drive this massive upsurge?
Maybe new new games, bundles, services, a slim version, price cuts. It could happen or it could not, but totally negating it is crazy.
It'd need to ship around ~9m units worldwide to achieve cumulative sales of 21m.
It's not out of the question giving the fact that sales for next gen consoles are likely to increase this year as a whole anyway, the US and UK market have seen huge price drops and strong sell through of X1 consoles + MS will no doubt push the holiday again next year as much as they did this year. Add in new games, services etc...
I'd expect more than 6 million to be sold in to just North America + the British Isles alone.
(I also made a typo above, meant to say over 37m for PS4, over 38m is only if PS4 hits a certain price, you all know which price I mean. Although I can't help but think I might be over estimating PS4 here and my original prediction of 35m+ was better. As I said, I'll have a better of idea of PS4 predictions once we see actual sell in figures from Sony.)
Not sure what's it like in EU, but in NA, MS is pratically spoiling us with all sorts of deals and services. Shame its not the same for EU.
The UK market has seen a number of services and content compared to the overall European market where Xbox support has always been lackluster.
In the UK right now you can pick up an Xbox One with a game for around £280 which is £30-50 cheaper than the PS4. (MS are really playing on price in US + UK)
To put that into perspective for you guys, £280 is around $420 but take into account that UK prices are always expensive when compared to USA + UK prices always include tax in the price. (When you take off UK tax it comes to around ~$350).
The PS4 currently has higher unit sales and higher mind share in the UK. But you have to remember that the UK was 360 land last gen and the 360 outsold the PS3 by more than 2.5m units in the UK. That's not just going to go away and you'll find a number of users going from 360 to Xbox One because it makes sense to them. In the same way a lot of people went from PS2 to PS3 early on in the gen despite the high price and lack of games.
I think your PS4 sold in estimates are fine but you're overestimating the X1 sold in numbers.
Brad Grenz
Member
That's kind of his thing if you've been reading the thread all along.
People said the same thing about my 11.7m estimate after a while, then Q4 happened.
People also called me crazy when I predicted so many units for the PS4 as well as no one at the time was expecting it to sell as fast as it did.
How so? Pretty much everyone is very agreed on the fact that Xbox One shipments must be over 11.5m at this point, close to 12m.
It's sell through that this thread was talking about before in regards to being over 10m. But the predictions I made above have nothing to do with sell through.
IndoAssassin
Banned
PS4 is available In 123 countries by the end of 1st year on market. How many countries was PS2 available in by end of its first year?
If the PS4 really hits that $299 price, I expect the sales of X1 to take a considerable hit. But then again, who knows how aggressive Microsoft will be during the holidays and more importantly, I bet they will channel stuff again. Still, I'm predicting ~38 million sold in for PS4 and ~20 million for X1.
I kind of agree but you're being a bit too offensive. It's his prediction after all.
I may have missed it, but we actually got hard numbers? Or are you still using your own estimates as definitive?