How is 12 million optimistic?
It's realistic. Anything above 12 million is optimistic, anything below 11.5m is pessimistic.
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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
- Thread starter 1st Course
- Start date
How is 12 million optimistic?
It's realistic. Anything above 12 million is optimistic, anything below 11.5m is pessimistic.
theprodigy
Member
this isn't entirely unreasonable actually....but you'll never get those arguing with you to agree with that as a side effect of their predictions
Sold through =/= shipped.
We are talking about two completely different things.
Once again proving you don't actually know the difference yourself.
Also, You're misquoting me again, I said 10 million minimum for sell through. Seriously, does no one else see that death doesn't know what he's talking about?
Optimistic is not the opposite of Realistic. You can be realistically optimistic, and realistically pessimistic. You are confusing terms and failing to understand the point. What you're essentially trying to do without realizing it is say there is no possible thing we can call an optimistic prediction, because 12 million is the end of the scale. If that's "normal", then everything after is not optimistic it's non-existent. It's a silly place to be.
I could be wrong, but I think he was suggesting below 10 million for sold through and I agree with him on that. However, neither sides could reach an agreement and it went on and on until the thread died for a short while. And I see the war is starting again...
1st Course
Member
It does sounds low. You know I actually didn't notice we have jan-mar 2014 numbers for X360. Was going off by Wii U sales mostly and assuming X360 was shipping 0.3-0.5m or so in non-holiday quarters.
Thinking about it, I'd say 7m/12.5m XB1 seems like more realistic split.
Damn, we can't even agree on the term "optimistic" and "pessimistic" now. Come on, guys, can we all just take a deep breath and relax? No need for all this tension. If we can't see eye to eye, then just agree to disagree
You do have to admit that Death doesn't actually seem to grasp what we're talking about here and now. He keeps changing my words.
Look at the post above, he's basically saying there is no way we can know what the SHIPPED number is without gfk SELL THROUGH data.....
He's confusing two very different things....
Death2494 said:
your interpretation vs my direct quote.
You can't even accurately quote other people's posts. Why would anyone believe your numbers?
ZHugeEX and Death, you two have been going on the entire thread. Isn't this getting somewhat tiresome? Like I said, if you can't agree, then agree to disagree. As long as Microsoft does not release official numbers, there is no way we can know for sure. Even when Sony release their shipment numbers, it won't tell exactly tell us about the X1 numbers. Now I don't wanna take sides, but can we all be friends again?
You still haven't shown me sell in numbers that you've worked out. Your quick to criticise but provide no evidence on how the sell in numbers posted by myself and numerous others is wrong.
I think you need to realise these are not "my" numbers, but numbers that the majority of neogaf agrees with. (Yes, talking sell in figures)
Understand what you're saying. All I would like is for Death to put some effort into his argument in order to show me how the sell in figures quoted are incorrect. Instead he just calls me out for no reason and says that I must be wrong because he says so.
I've been saying the same thing others have. His prediction is very optimistic. Especially when there is little to no information to back his "analysis"
ZhugeEX, simple fact is you don't know the split for Xbox One and Xbox 360 so it is flawed. There isn't anyone who does outside of Microsoft. This is why ALL predictions are irrelevantZhugeEX said:
"What I tell young couples that are getting married is: you're going to have quarrels, and on some things, you're just going to have to agree to disagree. And when you go to bed at night, kiss each other and tell each other that you love each other. Don't go to bed mad. Life is too short. Keep it simple."
- Si Robertson
To be fair, he does back up his predictions with believable numbers so his predictions are still reasonable. And this is coming from someone who thinks his predictions are slightly optimistic as well
So how can I have an optimistic estimate?
If all predictions are irrelevant then surely you can't say that something is too high or too low, because as you say there is no prediction that can be made.......
It's clear to me that you will not engage in a rational debate, you are constantly trying to call me out without evidence, mislead me, provoke me and It' clear you have your own little agenda or something.
Therefore please don't quote me in any of your future posts as I will not be responding.
All I want to do is have a discussion with everyone here. 10 pages was fine and then...... yeh....
This! So much this! I've been trying to say this so many times!
"What I tell young couples that are getting married is: you're going to have quarrels, and on some things, you're just going to have to agree to disagree. And when you go to bed at night, kiss each other and tell each other that you love each other. Don't go to bed mad. Life is too short. Keep it simple."
- Si Robertson
Well, except for that kissing part. And I'm sure they aren't married XD
You seen post me the 10.5M could be the ceiling but he thinks 10m is the floor.
Though I disagree with it, that's his prediction. I personally think 9.5 million is the floor. Either of us could be right or wrong. That's what I'm saying. I just hope you're mature enough not to rub it in his face if he's wrong
I'm sorry but what are you trying to prove with this? We've stopped talking about sold through for a while now and moved on to shipments. Please don't drag me into this endless and fruitless war. I'm just trying to stop it
Brad Grenz
Member
Because your estimate is a figure in the top half of the top half of the possible range based on no actual, credible evidence.
It was just to highlight that I was being reasonable. Didn't even want it to get this far...
Just want it to be noted that I've already tried to be reasonable.Death2494 said:
Dude, I don't get why you keep quoting posts about sold through numbers when we're taking about SOLD IN. He's right that SOLD IN would be somewhere around 11.5 million which is reasonable. Do you really know the difference between SOLD THROUGH and SOLD IN?
sold through = consumers
sold in= retailers
I know the difference.
My point was to highlight that I acknowledged that he could be right about his predictions whether they were sold-in or sold through. Why are you getting worked up? I was sharing these exact sentiments ....
Are you trying to pick a fight with me by questioning my intellect and understanding?Jarvin98 said:
Which figure are you referring to? Sold in or sold through?
Dude, calm down. I'm not trying to be aggressive at all. And I'm not getting worked up. Just making sure you knew the differences. The thing is if you can't agree with someone's predictions, then just don't. But don't call it stupid, unreasonable or baseless. See, I don't agree with his 10 million sold through figure but I respect his opinion regardless.
Thanks God someone else said this!!! This is literally all I have been saying. I don't know if others have been afraid or what but kudos man.
"Each market is selling"ZhugeEX said:
ALL I have seen is a chart with half of its rows empty. I understand he probably put a lot of time into his calculations and theories, but it doesn't automatically make them indisputable. People should be allowed to question it, especially after making the statement above.
does anyone have a better understanding of how Xbox One is performing in eastern markets based on his posts. Don't worry I'll wait.
Dude this is GAF, we're suppose to question and pry otherwise this forum would be like every other forum that nobody remembers.
To be clear ZhugeEX, I respect your prediction. I just happened to disagree with it. Hope to see you in the Sony thread.
iliketurtles
Banned
that's sad. They should take notes from Sony.
The Artisan
Member
Less than 10m sold through? If that is the case, than the Ps4/xbone ratio is 2:1.
There you go. All you had to say was the bolded. Now we can be friends again. And to clarify, I never said we shouldn't question others. I only said not to disrespect and criticize the opinion of others.
Well, it's just a prediction. I do believe the ratio is still 2:1 and I expect it to widen over time
Believable (as in technically "possible") does not mean realistic though.
We know that according to MS they shipped 10m units ww as of early December.
We also know by the force of sheer logic that this included the Holiday shipments.
Zhuge's number imply that MS shipped a -minimum- additional 1.5m units ww (up to 2.5 according to him) to cover the tail end of December/ rest of January, knowing (according to what we've seen at retailers and confirmed by retail insiders) that the existing inventory was not selling out completely?
Seems... Weird. Stuffing the channel wouldn't quite cover a description for that kind of move imo.
In the end though, wether the XB1 shipped 10.5 or 11.5, it probably differs very little in the grand scheme of things.
Truth to be told, I'm still skeptical about that 11.5 million sold in figures. Seems a lot, doesn't it? But it's still possible for Microsoft to keep stuffing the channels just to artificially boost sales. That's why I'm curious about the number of unsold X1's. Regardless, excessive stock could bite them in the ass. I expect the Q1 2015 shipments to be relatively low as a result
RespectThySole
Member
There is nothing optimistic about 11.5-12 million shipped. I don't see how one could come to such a conclusion unless they don't know the meaning of the word or they haven't done much research on this.
Suggesting less than that would be very optimistic for 360 sold-in considering that it's sold-through in the US was only ~1.4 million and the U.S. makes up nearly 50% of its sales. Another 40% drop YOY is in no way "optimistic."
Suggesting less than that would be very optimistic for 360 sold-in considering that it's sold-through in the US was only ~1.4 million and the U.S. makes up nearly 50% of its sales. Another 40% drop YOY is in no way "optimistic."
Brad Grenz
Member
It's adorable how bruised some of you are over such a petty matter of semantics.
RespectThySole
Member
No one is bruised by anything. That chart and the ranges he posted were absurd. Even the most "pessimistic" person wouldn't say they are only at 9.5 million shipped. I've yet to see a single person claim this. He added nothing meaningful to the conversation with his argument.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
It's difficult to answer this post with a call of 'irony!' without doubling up on that irony, so I'll add this:
surely we'll get our answers to this quarter's potential channel stuffing numbers in the next quarter, if and when MS adjust manufacturing and shipping like they did last year, yes?
I wonder when MS starts to do a pricecut in europe. Here in germany Media Markt and Saturn are desperately trying to get them away with new offers every week.
I bet they would sell the console for 300€ by now if MS finally got around to do a pricecut.
Instead we get offers like XB1 + Controller + Forza for 379€ which won't help the console because if it's close to the PS4 price why would anyone buy a XB1.
The console already has the image of being worse than the PS4 and if it doesn't have a massive price advantage they won't be making much progress sales wise.
I bet they would sell the console for 300€ by now if MS finally got around to do a pricecut.
Instead we get offers like XB1 + Controller + Forza for 379€ which won't help the console because if it's close to the PS4 price why would anyone buy a XB1.
The console already has the image of being worse than the PS4 and if it doesn't have a massive price advantage they won't be making much progress sales wise.
Really all we're trying to figure out is a rough shipping number for December. You've got December starting numbers, so the questions about how many x360 sold during the calendar year are pretty much meaningless. If XB1 shipped 2 million in December, you've got the 12m shipped. If they shipped more than a small amount of x360's, you probably don't come to the 12m.
I'm in the 11-11.5m camp shipped personally.
I'm in the 11-11.5m camp shipped personally.
Final Verdict
Member
I really hope not.
I don't want another PS2 generation.
I think that last generation was a really really healthy generation in terms of marketshare split, and was hoping for another close cut one.
(Last gen is at like ~85M+ for PS3 & 360, and ~100M for Wii right?)
Anyways, I guess there is not crying over spilled milk. Microsoft and Nintendo messed up, and probably deserve to be where they are now. I just hope that they will rebound from this and have a much better go around next time.
RespectThySole
Member
Not sure what you're getting at here. I've posted in the thread many times. His first post was that nonsense and then he refused to even make a prediction or explain his viewpoint in a way that made sense. Based on his chart, he has no idea what he is talking about.
A big portion of the range he had is impossible(9.5-10.5). 9.5 million shipped is not a "pessimistic" view. It's a prediction no one would make. We can get to around 9 million sold-through without tier 1 2014 numbers from 9 countries and without tier 2 numbers.
Apart from that, where exactly would they be shipping 5.5-6.5 million 360s last year? They only sold 1.4 million consoles in the US. Maybe to China I guess
Then I got bad news for you, dude. The gap will not shrink and will most likely expand to a 2.5:1 or even 3:1 gap by the end of the generation. There is literally no way in which the X1 will even come close to the PS4 in sales. The X1 will be ~50 million while the PS4 will be ~120 million IMO
Chobel
Member
Any reason why?
Not sure what you're getting at here. I've posted in the thread many times. His first post was that nonsense and then he refused to even make a prediction or explain his viewpoint in a way that made sense. Based on his chart, he has no idea what he is talking about.
A big portion of the range he had is impossible(9.5-10.5). 9.5 million shipped is not a "pessimistic" view. It's a prediction no one would make. We can get to around 9 million sold-through without tier 1 2014 numbers from 9 countries and without tier 2 numbers.
Apart from that, where exactly would they be shipping 5.5-6.5 million 360s last year? They only sold 1.4 million consoles in the US. Maybe to China I guess
It looks like death has been banned now for his posts in this thread.
There are plenty of people who've disagreed with what i've posted which is fine. But he took it to another level by trying to cal. me out in every post and make it look like I had no idea what I was talking about when he was the one who had no idea what he was talking about and couldn't post any evidence or argument to show my figures were wrong.
Its so funny how he was adament that Sony had to be doing better no matter what that he forgot his 10.5m shipped prediction would mean that the Xbox 360 would have out sold the ps3 by more than 1 million worldwide. Something which is very hard to believe at this point. But anyway, its not like he had abut valid point to begin with.
Prototype Viktor
Member
Woman 1: That girl over there is a total 11 maybe 12!
Woman 2: Not a 13?
Woman 1: No woman that's absurd
Woman 2: Eh, your right, I'll give you that she's a 11 easily but 12 is kinda optimistic
Final Verdict
Member
Oh, well I just don't think that it is as healthy for the industry when one company takes almost everything....these situations can lead to a monopoly if it is sustained for long enough, and monopolys can be bad. (of coarse this does not mean it is allays bad, but it can be).
I think that the best situation for the consumers would be if all three platforms were equally healthy.
Now I'm not so much worried about Xbox at the moment as I am worried about Nintendo. They have (in my opinion) what is probably the best 1st party, and yet their platform is incredibly unhealthy right now (coming from a Wii U owner). I think that they need to be able to embrace 3rd parties like Playstation and Xbox have, but right now they are just sooooo far away from that.
And it is not just a HW problem (though that is a big part of it). Their network is a long ways behind XBL & PSN (opinion), though it has improved.
They have a lot of work to do, but I hope that they can improve their platform for next generation, and of coarse, their biggest obstacle is going to be name brand...
I am aware that the gap will widen over time units wise, but I think it is too early to say that it will widen ratio wise.
I think that we could have a similar 2:1 ratio by the end of 2015 once everything is all said and done.
Of coarse PS4 will almost definitely have much longer legs once next gen gets here, but
I wouldn't assume that the gap will grow that big (3:1?) until after the next Xbox come out.
EDIT: you with the calculations I'v done, I believe/predict that X1 will sell 60m units by the end of 2020. I think PS4 can do 130m in the same timeframe.
RespectThySole
Member
Yep. It seems like he was more focused on the ratio being 2:1 than using any evidence or data form a guesstimate. It's like he doesn't even realize that the ratio would still be around 1.9:1-2:1 for just last year. Even though you actually pointed this out to him. It's only when you include 2013 numbers that it would go down to about 1.7:1-1.8:1.
This year I would expect the ratio to again be 2:1 in favour of PS4 if not higher.
The USA and UK are still large markets combined with approximately 5.4m units sold through between them in CY2014. I'd expect this number to grow YOY but still expect the PS4 to maintain and extend its lead in these 2 markets.
Worldwide however.... well lets just say PS4 is going to do much much much much better.
RespectThySole
Member
I agree 100%. I still see the PS4 outselling the XB1 by a couple hundred thousand in the US/UK this year and worldwide it goes without saying that PS4 will dominate. It will definitely be a 2:1 ratio again. Both consoles will sell more than what they sold last year with how strong the lineups are and with last gen fading quite a bit more.