When Microsoft refuses to release sell in numbers for the X1 alone, what else can you do but estimate?
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Microsoft FY2015 Q2: 6.6M 360+XBO Shipped
- Thread starter 1st Course
- Start date
Hard numbers we have is 5.1m as of Q1 CY2014 and approaching 10m as of Nov 2014 with 10m confirmed shipped by Satya (Microsoft CEO) at the beginning of December 2014.
What we can do with those numbers for Q2-Q4 is work out what Xbox 360 would have sold and subtract it from the total Xbox units sold.
Everyone is coming to a minimum of 11.5m+
If for some reason you think it's less than 11.5m the that means that Xbox 360 is selling more than 4.5m units in CY2014 which is a bit hard to believe when the USA only sold through around ~1.4m that year and the 360 sold through 7.0m in the previous year.
A number of people have been tracking X1 sales in the past 3 quarterly threads and it's really unanimous agreement that 11.5m would be a good minimum to use. You can read through this thread and the previous quarterly threads to see everyones calculations come to 11.5m+
Brad Grenz
Member
He is taking his own guesses as authoritative.
Welfare
Member
Very good guesses with a good range.
ChronotriggerJM
Member
What is the realistic time frame in which we could see the hardware shrinks both Microsoft and Sony want? I mean we just saw Samsung consolidating, but what about the SOC's?
Brad Grenz
Member
And yet consistently too generous to the Xbox One.
How?
I'm one of the people who said the PS4 would sell like crazy and got laughed at last year because my prediction was too high.
Turns out my prediction was actually a slight bit low.
Like I said, I don't just make numbers up. I use actual data, both historical and current as well as looking at trends and estimates in order to come to a final number. With regards to sell in, a number of gaf users have arrived at the same number as me in regards to 11.5m+ shipped in this thread. If you read previous threads you'll see that gaf members including myself came to ~7.3m-7.5m for the previous quarter total.
I don't have an agenda to push, I just like to find the most accurate numbers.
freefornow
Gold Member
Maybe a "console version" of Hololens in 2017??? Might give the console a boost in sales similar to 360 Kinect??
Welfare
Member
No offence, ZhugeEX, but I agree with him. Your X1 predictions are often overly optimistic.
That's all we have( unity bundle) besides some kinect bundles with unity. Yes there are a lot of them maybe not at Walmart but other large retailers absolutely (including mine)
Final Verdict
Member
So when do y'all think MS will start giving X1 ship numbers (solely) rather than 'xbox family'....
X360 has dropped fairly fast, so by the end of the year it's sales may be small enough that it would be pointless to combine them in investor reports...
Thoughts?
X360 has dropped fairly fast, so by the end of the year it's sales may be small enough that it would be pointless to combine them in investor reports...
Thoughts?
Brad Grenz
Member
I don't know, why does it hurt you to see someone doubting someone else's complete guess?
Zhuge has an exaggerated sense of how well the Xbox One is selling outside the US/UK. It colors his estimations and projections. It's not that complicated or controversial a thing to say.
LOL, why are you getting so defensive? It's just my opinion.
What is this? They're discussing numbers, why do you have to get personal?
I don't completely agree with his estimates either, does that mean it somehow pains me that even though I bought an XB1 this year, I somehow hate and despise it? Or does it just mean that I'm not sure I agree with his numbers. Get some perspective.
I think they'll ride 'xbox family' for a while. It would just look too much like the whole thing was to hide the numbers (which it was) if they changed back as soon as things started going well.
He also frequently predicts very optimistic numbers for the X1, so yeah, that's why it hurts him
The thing is that a number of my "estimates" aren't based on solely on "estimates". In regards to sell in it is literally impossible that the Xbox One sold in less than 11 million units. If it did then the Xbox 360 is doing crazy numbers for a 10 year console and suddenly the RotW is buying the Xbox 360 at a ratio of 3:1 compared to the USA.
It's very very reasonable to predict that sell in for Xbox One will be closer to 11.5m if not even 12.0m.
I've done the math on this one.
Same applies to sell through, I've done the math again, at a very minimum we can say say that the Xbox One has sold through more than 9 million units to customers. Now obviously you've all seen my post where I estimate 10 million as a minimum sell through. But if anyone says that sell through is 9m or less then they are 100% wrong as we can prove 9m through official data. In the same way that we can say with 99% confidence than Xbox One will have sold in more than 11m units to retail, but more than likely between 11.5m-12.0m.
I am much more confident with that sell in number, as are a number of gaffers.
If you want to say I'm wrong or that I'm "estimating" too high then I at least expect a post explaining why I am. If all you can say is "It's too high because the Xbox One can't be doing that well", then that's not exactly a valid reason at all...
Xbox One is doing terrible compared to it's main competitor, the PS4. Therefore Microsoft will continue to use the "Xbox Family" moniker in order to hide how well the Xbox One is doing on it's own. This will certainly go on for the rest of the fiscal year, perhaps even the calender year.
Except that the sell in calculations used don't really look at this as a factor. It looks more at what has sold through and what the Xbox 360 has sold in.
Just FYI, after CY2015 I expect the Xbox One to drop in sales quite a lot. Funny how none of you guys take into consideration that my prediction model says that.
It's very very reasonable to predict that sell in for Xbox One will be closer to 11.5m if not even 12.0m.
I've done the math on this one.
Same applies to sell through, I've done the math again, at a very minimum we can say say that the Xbox One has sold through more than 9 million units to customers. Now obviously you've all seen my post where I estimate 10 million as a minimum sell through. But if anyone says that sell through is 9m or less then they are 100% wrong as we can prove 9m through official data. In the same way that we can say with 99% confidence than Xbox One will have sold in more than 11m units to retail, but more than likely between 11.5m-12.0m.
I am much more confident with that sell in number, as are a number of gaffers.
If you want to say I'm wrong or that I'm "estimating" too high then I at least expect a post explaining why I am. If all you can say is "It's too high because the Xbox One can't be doing that well", then that's not exactly a valid reason at all...
Xbox One is doing terrible compared to it's main competitor, the PS4. Therefore Microsoft will continue to use the "Xbox Family" moniker in order to hide how well the Xbox One is doing on it's own. This will certainly go on for the rest of the fiscal year, perhaps even the calender year.
Except that the sell in calculations used don't really look at this as a factor. It looks more at what has sold through and what the Xbox 360 has sold in.
Just FYI, after CY2015 I expect the Xbox One to drop in sales quite a lot. Funny how none of you guys take into consideration that my prediction model says that.
Welfare
Member
Last time I'm posting in this thread.
~11m to ~12m shipped is not optimistic in the slightest. If you are going to go ahead and assume that is somehow optimistic despite the 360 dying very quickly in 2014, then go ahead.
I'm not being optimistic, you are being very pessimistic.
Well, I guess a few others and myself are very pessimistic then despite having shown our predictions through breakdowns. And my prediction is ~9.75 million for X1 so if that's very pessimistic to you, then you're the one with the problem.
Sold in or sold through?
Can you tell me what you think sold in figure is with a break down?
So during the holiday quarter, are shipments essentially flat or wildly variable? To a layman it seems likely that the factory would be shipping as much as they made, making amount shipped per month somewhat flat.
Your estimates don't work well if December isn't a much larger shipping month than October and November. Well, that or December shipments would have to be close to 100% XB1.
Your estimates don't work well if December isn't a much larger shipping month than October and November. Well, that or December shipments would have to be close to 100% XB1.
Final Verdict
Member
Interesting predictions, I am really curious to see how the influx of software this year will affect PS4's sales.
I would agree that 21M is a bit optimistic, but not impossible.
I personally am thinking it will be ~20M, but there are just too many factors that we can't predict.
(for example, who could have predicted Phill Spencer taking over Xbox this past year and making so many good moves for Xbox such as removing Kinect almost immediately, as well as dropping the XBL app paywall. And who would have though at this time last year that we would see X1 sell for $350 + two games)
So like I said, 21M is definitely possible....that would be ~9.5M shipped for the year, roughly a 22% YOY growth.... In comparison, the Wii U saw a 18% YOY growth from 2013-2014.....and that was without a price drop (though it did have two very big games).
Sold through of course. Only an idiot or fanboy would put 9.75 million as sold in. Sold in would be closer to ~11.5 million
Oh, and sorry, but I don't really break down sold in figures, just sold through figures. Sold in is much harder to predict in a break down
So why are you saying I'm being optimistic when you have the exact same prediction as me for sold in......
I don't get it? Why is everyone suddenly having a go at me for sold in figures yet when I ask what you think you think the same as me.
I'd like to see this brad guy post what he think sold in figures for X1 are.
Well, your sold in figure is closer to 12 million, isn't it? That's slightly too high but still possible. I was referring to your sold through numbers as optimistic. I respect your opinion if you think it's >10 million but like I said I'd put it around ~9.75 million
And I apologize if I offended you but I hope you won't take that >10 million sold through as fact in discussions
It is optimistic, but there's not necessarily some negative connotation in that and I don't know why people are acting like there is. Some wall street predictors are known as "optimistic" prognosticators, because they frequently err on the high end of the predictor scale. Others are known as "pessimistic", for the opposite reason.
The reason we might say you're 'optimistic' is because the general worldwide trend has been if anything usually worse than expected, not the other way around. This Holiday bucked the trend mainly just in UK and US. Considering that factor, we can say 12 million shipped is a very optimistic number, something like the high end of the scale.
Consider it another way: Who in there right mind would suggest XBO is at 13 million shipped? Very few if any if they've followed the news. That would mean 13 million is not a reasonable high end of the scale, it's not a plausible possibility and so it's not on the scale at all.
(Chart Note: From the Red Arrow back is 'pessimistic' predictions; from the Blue arrow forward are 'optimistic' predictions)
12 million is a plausible possibility with a probability that may or may not be low, but because it's the high end of the scale (where we say the scale is 10-12 million or something like that) we would call that prediction "optimistic". And if someone chose a 9.5-10 million number, we'd call that prediction "pessimistic". Neither have inherently negative connotations, they just represent the full range of the scale.
Nope. I've always said between 11.5m-12.0m. I've said it could be close to 12.0m (as in higher than 11.75m) but I've always maintained that the actual figure will be in between those two numbers.
The way I came to this figure is by taking 10m as a minimum sold in figure (from MS) as well as calculating X360 sales based on USA NPD sell through, estimated YOY drops and known trends for X1 and X360 in their various quarters.
And no, you didn't offend me. More this brad guy who seems to think my predictions and numbers are, and I quote "complete guesses". I work in a role within the telecommunications industry where I get access to UK sell through data for a number of handset manufacturers. I work with these numbers in order to come to conclusions. I'm also a big fan of the video game industry and use similar methods in order to work out sales figures for consoles here. In regards to sell through I myself said that 8.7m is a solid tracked number as a minimum sell through that is indisputable for X1. My predictions account for Germany and UK in December, 9 tier 1 markets for an additional 12 month tracking period and 28 tier 2 markets for a 4 month tracking period. Using that data I've been able to come up with 10 million as a minimum sell through.
But, as I said before. Anyone suggesting 9m or less would be very very wrong. I do wonder what Brad thinks..... maybe he thinks I'm making all this up....
Yeah, I know. I've been following this thread all week. And I witnessed the war between you, Serversurfer and Death too. And I tried to stop it. XD
In all seriousness, how many X1's do you think are lying around in warehouses WW?
I added a bit to my post above to clarify some stuff.
In all honesty, I have absolutely no idea how many X1's are in channel and I'd be taking a complete guess If I was to say a number. There really isn't enough actual data for me to even take a stab in the dark at this.
What I will say is that MS shipped a lot more this quarter than I expected and I'd imagine that there are a large number in channel. I think it's also one of the reasons why MS have kept the price drop, in order to sell through their stock quicker in order to ship more units.
Whilst I fully understand what you're saying and appreciate the explanation, we really do have enough information regarding shipped data in order to say that Xbox One cannot have shipped less than 11 million units as a minimum. If it does ship less than 11 million units then it means that the Xbox 360 sold in more than 5m units worldwide which is very very unlikely as it we know USA sold through ~1.4m and X360 shipments decreased heavily YOY from 7m. A ~40% drop is likely based on historical data.
Final Verdict
Member
I wouldn't think anymore than 1.5m...
I may be wrong, but don't retailers make the orders for more units based on how they are selling at their location?
I mean, can MS just keep sending a retailer more and more units when they don't need anymore??
Yep, I agree that anyone even suggesting 9 million or less sold through are delusional. Anyway, I predict ~1.5-2 million sitting in warehouses WW. But then again, when I said this, The Shogun called it out and he hasn't shown his face since then.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was more than that
IndoAssassin
Banned
I'm guessing next announcement will be when they hit 15/20 million shipped. But in their quarterly earnings they will continue to combine them.
So this is sold through? Seems reasonable but I think the X1 would be closer to 18 million. PS4 would hit 38 million if Sony dropped the price to $299
Final Verdict
Member
Maybe....Maybe not.
That's why I'm asking about who has control over shipments (The retailer, or Microsoft).
If the retailer has control, then more that 1.5M units wouldn't make much sense, but if MS has the ability to just ship however much they want to retailers, then it could be anything...
We have enough information to make educated guesses which may be optimistic, pessimistic or neither. 11 million shipped is a guesstimate that is probably right on the 'neither' part of the scale, neither particularly optimistic or pessimistic.
12 million is very much on the optimistic end.
I think the retailer takes what Microsoft gives under the condition they would be covered by price reductions or write downs. I just can't imagine a retailer paying for the numbers I'm seeing compared to the ps4 especially based on how each are selling
theprodigy
Member
no, not really, if XB1 shipments go down 360 shipments must go up, and at a certain point 360 levels are just unreasonable (and funnily enough, everyone always dodges this when asked)
we are talking about shipped here after all
answer this directly: do you think the Xbox 360 shipped 5 million units this CY?
er what
that would mean 360 shipped a grand total of 1.7m over the last 3 quarters, it can't be that low
1st Course
Member
Indeed. People should keep in mind: 19.5 million Xbox consoles were shipped since XB1 introduction
Of those 19.5m I'd wager 6m are X360 at most, really can't see X360 being higher than that.
Wii U shipment October 2013 - December 2014: 5.29m
^
X360 shipment can't be higher than that given that the Wii U is outselling the 360 even in its best market + Wii U Japanese sales being much stronger.
Really any talk about XB1 shipment being <13m is just ridiculous if you ask me.
This prediction could be lol worthy at the end of the year because who knows what Microsoft would do. They could end up giving it free lol
In regards to Xbox 360 shipments. In the USA we have seen a trend where sales have been dropping around 35% YOY. Applying this same ratio to the 7 million worldwide figure for CY2013 we are left with ~4.55m for CY2014.
If we look on a global scale, the trends show that we are seeing a 40% drop YOY for shipments. This drop takes us down from 7m units to ~4.20m units. Obviously we're working out global shipments so whilst we do need to take the US into account, the 40% number seems like a more accurate one to use in this case.
We can actually estimate that around ~2.1m Xbox 360 consoles were sold in to retail before Q4 if taking high numbers into consideration. 800k from Q1, 600k from Q2 and 700k from Q3. We know for a fact that the PS3 shipped ~2.3m consoles to retail before Q4. The trend for the Xbox 360 for the past couple of years has been to double Q1-3 sales for Q4. So 2.1m + 2.1m takes us to around ~4.2m. This matches with the 40% drop that we've seen worldwide. So it's safe to assume that Xbox 360 shipments could be approximately ~4.2m.
Rather than take this as it is there are a few variables that we need to take on board. MS said 360 sales decreased a lot YOY, but we also don't have exact unit shipments for Q2-Q4. So taking everything into account I've decided to create a broad range of between 4.0m-4.5m units for Xbox 360 in CY2014.
This leaves us with between 11.5m-12.0m units for Xbox One in CY2014.
If we look on a global scale, the trends show that we are seeing a 40% drop YOY for shipments. This drop takes us down from 7m units to ~4.20m units. Obviously we're working out global shipments so whilst we do need to take the US into account, the 40% number seems like a more accurate one to use in this case.
We can actually estimate that around ~2.1m Xbox 360 consoles were sold in to retail before Q4 if taking high numbers into consideration. 800k from Q1, 600k from Q2 and 700k from Q3. We know for a fact that the PS3 shipped ~2.3m consoles to retail before Q4. The trend for the Xbox 360 for the past couple of years has been to double Q1-3 sales for Q4. So 2.1m + 2.1m takes us to around ~4.2m. This matches with the 40% drop that we've seen worldwide. So it's safe to assume that Xbox 360 shipments could be approximately ~4.2m.
Rather than take this as it is there are a few variables that we need to take on board. MS said 360 sales decreased a lot YOY, but we also don't have exact unit shipments for Q2-Q4. So taking everything into account I've decided to create a broad range of between 4.0m-4.5m units for Xbox 360 in CY2014.
This leaves us with between 11.5m-12.0m units for Xbox One in CY2014.
The Artisan
Member
what was serversurfer suggesting? less than 10m?
Lol, problem nobody knows what numbers he was citing in that conference call and people are assuming he meant actual shipments . There is no conclusive evidence that suggest that they actually shipped those. He was, more than likely, basing his statement off of the same projections used for the PR draft. He couldn't have been known numbers for Nov because the call took place on Dec. 3rd and NPD released Dec. 14thZhugeEX said:
Even your "hard data" is mere speculation.
What did people expect him to say to investors? " We put that PR out prematurely. But we aren't quite there yet."
NPD = Sell through
NPD has nothing to do with how many units Microsoft shipped.
Also I'm not using the 10m number as a definite. As you can see I've actually arrived to 11.5m-12.0m without even needing to fully consider 10m shipped. See my post above.
I really wish you'd stop trying to prove me wrong. The fact is you can't prove me wrong because you haven't looked at any numbers yourself and don't know how to use numbers to come to a conclusion. You yourself even admitted you don't know the difference between sell in and sell through at one point and also didn't consider that you said Xbox 360 shipped 5.4m in CY2014 when it's very clear that would be a very very very high number and most likely impossible unless you're telling me that the Xbox 360 is selling better than the PS3
It doesn't matter what my prediction is, that has nothing to do with the point I was making. People keep acting like that calling something an "optimistic prediction" is an inherently negative phrase,but I want to make it perfectly clear that you can have a truly legitimate prediction that is still optimistic in nature.
I do not have to predict anything, nor did I mention anything related to an actual prediction, to cause such a use of information. My point does not require it.
As we both said, understand the point you're making.
But in this case there there are limits to what can be classed as optimistic and pessimistic and the image you put up has very wide bars when they should be a lot closer between 11.5m-12.0m for the "normal" bit.
11.5-12.0 is not the 'normal bit', because as mentioned nobody would make an absurd prediction like 13m. That's not the end of the scale. 12.0 million is, therefore such a prediction is inherently optimistic while not remotely impacting the actual probability of you being right or not.
You arrived at that number without a lot of things. Apparently trends, reports, history of the eastern markets, and adoption rate just to name a few.
You don't know Germany and UK Dec 2014 sales
You don't know 9 out of 13 cumulative sales for CY2014
you don't know know Tier 2 launch numbers for CY2014
You don't difinitively if Xbox has shipped 10m
But you do know they sold at least 10.5M lol
Also I admitted to reading your comment wrong. And this is why people here question your numbers. You keep providing your own interpretation of what you think someone is saying instead of what they are actually saying.