The main reason why the PS4 did as well as it did was because it capitalize on Microsoft fucking up big-time. Nintendo has no such leverage, plus the NX Platform would be born in to a market that's heavily pro-PS4 with no chance of even making a dent in its marketshare.
I think that depends on where Sony goes from here. If Sony tries to elongate the PS4's lifecycle to squeeze the money out of it that Sony desperately needs on their books (which is extremely likely), mostly on the back of PSVR trying to make the PS4 seem "fresh", and/or starts running into drought situations like Nintendo has by making the development times on games longer to add proper PSVR support, then Nintendo having a software platform that gives them more hardware release flexibility and market maneuverability could be the leverage they require to make a dent in that market.
For one example, people who prefer a "traditional" non-VR experience could look between Sony and Nintendo and see Sony pushing hard to change the market in the way it believes the masses want (something people harp on Nintendo for doing all the time detrimentally, as a coincidence), while Nintendo might be seen as the better option for a traditional TV gaming experience, so long as there aren't many or any compromises to be made in owning one.
Let's face it, consumers aren't going to sit on PS4 for too long just because of brand momentum and a likely-$300 VR peripheral that has its own major uphill battle that will be similar to the struggles Nintendo faced with Wii U.
Specifically, Sony will need to try to sell people on PSVR adding value to PS4 as being something everyone can enjoy instead of the nausea-inducing neck-straining gimmicky crap that most of us are aware of when the term "VR" is brought up. Wii U suffered greatly for its value-add with the Gamepad being nearly impossible to communicate correctly without live demonstration, so I can't imagine that misconceptions about what VR is capable of and sparse ability to demonstrate it to the masses is going to do it any favours.
Consumers have already been asked once before to sit and wait while their consoles become long in the tooth for the next generation to come about on baited breath and, to be frank, the new generation underwhelmed in its first year on the market. I doubt they're eager to repeat that process again. Which leaves a rather unique opportunity.
There's a LOT of potential leverage there, leaving out the fact that people might actually prefer to own a Nintendo console that is equal to its competitors if there is an absence of compromise involved. The leverage may not be as blatantly obvious or as motivated by other factors as Sony's was, but it's still a very strong possibility.
Sony isn't exactly treading a well-paved road here, nor are they as infallible in the market as you're making them seem. PSVR could just as likely end up being the SegaCD/32X of this generation at worst, and if Sony's banking on that giving PS4 a bit of freshness to excuse another longer life cycle so they can cash in on hardware margins, that's a pretty shaky house of cards they're building.
What happens here really depends on how Sony and Microsoft respond to NX, how well Nintendo is able to market NX, and how the end of the PS4's life goes. If Sony/Microsoft feel threatened and hurry up their next platforms, or if Nintendo manages to pull off an exceptionally good NX launch, or if the PS4's fortunes change for the worse, Nintendo could have an opportunity to get a major foothold in. There's also factors like how a sufficiently powerful console could potentially win big with the early adopter crowd, as well as steal the PS4's "best version on consoles" thunder.
All of this is hypothetical and far from guaranteed to happen, but I just want to point out that the NX launch is still probably a bit over a year away, and there's a lot that can happen in a year.
And a lot that can happen after they're on the market, as well. If you're not careful, this industry can change on a frickin' dime with little provocation. Just ask Microsoft. Hell, just ask Nintendo themselves.
Exactly.
If I'm Nintendo, I look at what your average smartphone will be able to do over the next 4 years graphically and try to match it. Won't be too hard as they'll be working off a lower resolution (probably 540p to 720p rather than all these 1080p and more phones) and presumably able to 'code to the metal', dedicate more power to games vs the OS etc.
It's just hugely important that the machine doesn't feel like stone age tech compared to the cell phones and iPads that kids have in their hands day-in, day-out. If that's the case the battle will be lost before it has begun. (Which is many peoples' argument already, I suppose.)
I think with game consoles, people have higher expectations of what they're able to perform. A phone or a tablet is a multi-function device, so the expectations of what it's capable of are much smaller. For a device that basically has a primary function of gaming, more is to be expected of them.
So no, just aiming for mobile spec isn't going to be sufficient.
