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[slavesnyder]

Market looks healthy as long as you forget about the Wii.
WiiU and NX should both count for this gen.

I wonder if we will see two lines crossing in the graph, and what will it be.
XboxOne and PS4?
XboxOne and 360?

 

[ryan299]

I wonder how many were sold the other day when Target had it listen on their app for 29.99. lol

 

[Deleted member 74300]

PS2 disk read error wasn't that widespread, You can pretend it is but that doesn't make it fact. Xbox 360 red ring was prevelant and widespread that pretty much if you had a elite / original 360, it would red ring. The slim fixed this or at least seemed to for the majority of systems but it was a big issue until than.

I guess everyone must have imagined it then.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/news101105ps2lawsuit

 

[PdotMichael]

Lol, PS2's failure rate wasn't even close to the first years 360s. It's bascially a bad batch vs. flawed design.

 

[SprachBrooks]

So when NX is released next year, and it sells like the Wii, does that count as part of this gen? Or is Nintendo excluded?

If serious, can this be saved for posterity when the NX launches?

 

[leeh]

Honestly, can't imagine the NX being more powerful than the X1/PS4, more so on the same lines. They need to be able to sell at roughly the same price point, I don't they're going to loss-lead.

Great numbers for the PS4. Console gaming is dead!

 

[Raytow]

If serious, can this be saved for posterity when the NX launches?

Yes, do it, so we can laugh in a year.

 

[Apath]

Is everyone saying that the lines are trending on the graph to cross between generations? Because there is a clear spike in sales for the 360 and PS3 that the current generation has not reached yet, that could very well transfer over to this generation. Does it coincide with price drops?

 

[googleplex]

If you prefer saying two generations of Nintendo hardware competing with one generation of Playstation/Xbox hardware be my guest.

If you want to pretend that Nintendo is starting "next Gen" about 4 years early be my guest. But you'll be the only one.

 

[PdotMichael]

If you want to pretend that Nintendo is starting "next Gen" about 4 years early be my guest. But you'll be the only one.

Would love some "NPD: 80k sales for NX - NX is leading the next gen charts" threads and posts.

Good alternative for the future: "2019 - Nintendo NX has a 10 million head start, is the console race already over?"

 

[Javin98]

9 million in the us. So what could total numbers be (world wide)? 18 million?

Try something closer to 27 million sold through worldwide. Just my predictions, at least.

Gonna be over 11mil by the end of the year.

I'm predicting 11.3-11.75 million by the end of the year.

 

[Omiee]

Is everyone saying that the lines are trending on the graph to cross between generations? Because there is a clear spike in sales for the 360 and PS3 that the current generation has not reached yet, that could very well transfer over to this generation. Does it coincide with price drops?

i think its holiday season sales if im not mistaken but i could be wrong. because we will see a clear spike in units sold in a few weeks as well because of the holiday season and black friday.

 

[Cyborg]

Congrats Sony!

 

[The Artisan]

9 million in the us. So what could total numbers be (world wide)? 18 million?

more than that. Didn't it get to 18.5 million in january?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Market looks healthy as long as you forget about the Wii.

lol

"Hey guys the 6th generation looked pretty bad if you don't count the PS2"

 

[Elandyll]

more than that. Didn't it get to 18.5 million in january?

Didn't they announce 20m+ sold through during GDC in Feb?

Other number was 25.3m sold in as of June 30th.

 

[KooopaKid]

Same time next year will be the real test.

 

[bluedawgs]

lol

"Hey guys the 6th generation looked pretty bad if you don't count the PS2"

don't know why nintendo fans keep doing this whenever people exclude the once in a lifetime success (for nintendo) that was the wii

 

[1st Course]

Nice write up. Nice to see that Zhuge now has his own website.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

don't know why nintendo fans keep doing this whenever people exclude the once in a lifetime success (for nintendo) that was the wii

Because some of us tend to live in a reality where you don't exclude the most successful console of an entire generation when analyzing the industry.

It has absolutely nothing to do with being a Nintendo fan. I own every platform this generation, just like I did last generation...and the generation before....and the generation before...

 

[bluedawgs]

Because some of us tend to live in a reality where you don't exclude the most successful console of an entire generation when analyzing the industry.

It has absolutely nothing to do with being a Nintendo fan. I own every platform this generation, just like I did last generation...and the generation before....and the generation before...

is it okay with you if people point out the reality that the ps4 and xbox one are outpacing their last gen counter parts? or should wii and wii u always be included?

 

[OrbitalBeard]

is it okay with you if people point out the reality that the ps4 and xbox one are outpacing their last gen counter parts? or should wii and wii u always be included?

If you only want to talk about a portion of the industry, be my guest. I'm more interested in the overall trends, which means all platforms need to be included in the discussion.

 

[bluedawgs]

If you only want to talk about a portion of the industry, be my guest. I'm more interested in the overall trends, which means all platforms need to be included in the discussion.

you see we could do that, but the result will always be the same, due to the 90 or so million less sales the wii u will garner in comparison to the wii

 

[SwolBro]

Because some of us tend to live in a reality where you don't exclude the most successful console of an entire generation when analyzing the industry.

It has absolutely nothing to do with being a Nintendo fan. I own every platform this generation, just like I did last generation...and the generation before....and the generation before...

yeah but they hit a completely different demographic. The demographic the Wii hit are the same people that play only cell phone based games now, like candy crush.

The core base of the console demographic is doing just fine.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

you see we could do that, but the result will always be the same, due to the 90 or so million less sales the wii u will garner in comparison to the wii

So? Again, I'm interested in the industry as a whole, not a portion of it. Anyone who is actually serious about learning about the market, where it's been, and where it's going feels the same way.

That being said, the thread isn't really about this, so I'll refrain from posting further on the subject.

 

[backbreaker65]

Why doesn't the title of this thread state that these are estimates on "NPD" numbers?

 

[Freeman]

Because some of us tend to live in a reality where you don't exclude the most successful console of an entire generation when analyzing the industry.

It has absolutely nothing to do with being a Nintendo fan. I own every platform this generation, just like I did last generation...and the generation before....and the generation before...

Great industry analysis that ignores the obvious nature of the Wii's success. Please...

 

[Elandyll]

If you only want to talk about a portion of the industry, be my guest. I'm more interested in the overall trends, which means all platforms need to be included in the discussion.

At the same time, people have not imagined that something weird happened with the Wii I think.
People who say that (for the most part) do not mean that the Wii was not a "real" console, but that there were extraneous factors to consider,and in the case of the Wii specifically it was Huge imo.

The PS1, PS2 and PS3 also had that btw (the CD Karaoke playing/ DVD player/ Blu Ray player thing), but it seemed that for the Wii it transformed into some kind of weird cultural Zeitgeist phenomenon for a few years where "you have to have a Wii and try this crazy movement detection thing!".
I have personally been in two different organizations during that period which both did giveaways of a dozen or so Wiis during Employee Committee events, per example.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

At the same time, people have not imagined that something weird happened with the Wii I think.
People who say that (for the most part) do not mean that the Wii was not a "real" console, but that there were extraneous factors to consider,and in the case of the Wii specifically it was Huge imo.

The PS1, PS2 and PS3 also had that btw (the CD Karaoke playing/ DVD player/ Blu Ray player thing), but it seemed that for the Wii it transformed into some kind of weird cultural Zeitgeist phenomenon for a few years where "you have to have a Wii and try this crazy movement detection thing!".
I have personally been in two different organizations during that period which both did giveaways of a dozen or so Wiis during Employee Committee events, per example.

I agree. The Wii was an anomaly. I'm just not going to pretend Nintendo doesn't exist when looking at the industry in 2015.

You bring up good points for sure though.

Anyway, lol, I said I was done. My apologies.

 

[jroc74]

Because some of us tend to live in a reality where you don't exclude the most successful console of an entire generation when analyzing the industry.

It has absolutely nothing to do with being a Nintendo fan. I own every platform this generation, just like I did last generation...and the generation before....and the generation before...

Some also look at the overall trend of Nintendo home consoles and clearly see the Wii was the exception to the norm for Nintendo. A continuous downward trend that the Wii shook up. Meanwhile Sony has had 101 mil , 152 mil, 85+? million home console sellers to where the PS4 sits now. MS went from 24 mil, 85+? million to where the XBO sits now.

Then we have the Wii U....which is continuing Nintendo's downward trend for home consoles and might not outsell the Gamecube..

Sony barely had any time in the handheld market (1 gen , 2 at the most) and MS has never had a presence in it at all. But yea...lets keep looking at the overall market with no caveats included.

I get what you and others are saying. But I always compare these console sales to stock sales. We do have graphs n all...lol As a stock which would you prefer to invest in...

 

[Bolivar687]

Nintendo's failure to hold on to their audience should not impugn the rest of the industry.

 

[fastmower]

Lots of theories straight from the ass in this thread. Even from people of which I expect better.

 

[jroc74]

edit

 

[SmokedMeat]

If you want to pretend that Nintendo is starting "next Gen" about 4 years early be my guest. But you'll be the only one.

How do you get four years?

NX is likely launching in the fall of 2016, which means Xbox One and PS4 will be three years old. If they launch new systems at the five year mark then NX will only be two years old when they show up.

And yes, it's Nintendo's next gen system no matter what you think.

 

[Arttemis]

The gap between generations isn't shrinking, it's growing. It's a linear growth, and not based on a multiple of two or three, but it's growing. At 3 months, the gap between the two generations was two million, and now it's closer to three. The holiday sales are around the corner, and this gen will get a similar bump to last gen's, keeping the gap there.

The Wii was an anomaly that appealed to demographics not typically in this market segment, so their absence may make the overall console generation look smaller, but that consistent baseline of the targeted demographic is seemingly larger. Even without a 100M-selling Wii craze and Kinect craze, the new generation is kicking ass. Mobile may be hurting Japan's console business, but there's plenty of market desire for it in the US.

 

[fastmower]

The gap between generations isn't shrinking, it's growing. It's a linear growth, and not based on a multiple of two or three, but it's growing. At 3 months, the gap between the two generations was two million, and now it's closer to three. The holiday sales are around the corner, and this gen will get a similar bump to last gen's, keeping the gap there.

The Wii was an anomaly that appealed to demographics not typically in this market segment, so their absence may make the overall console generation look smaller, but that consistent baseline of the targeted demographic is seemingly larger. Even without a 100M-selling Wii craze and Kinect craze, the new generation is kicking ass. Mobile may be hurting Japan's console business, but there's plenty of market desire for it in the US.

This post makes sense.

 

[The Artisan]

Didn't they announce 20m+ sold through during GDC in Feb?

Other number was 25.3m sold in as of June 30th.

I'm not 100% but I think 25 was shipped.

 

[Intrigue]

I'm not 100% but I think 25 was shipped.

Sony announced sold through ( to customers )

Microsoft's number is always shipped ( to retailers )

 

[Ce-Lin]

It's because it's the best system right now, with the marketing to back it. As a huge 360 fan, staight up I have no idea why people are buying a Xbone unless their huge Halo fans or just HAD to gave games like Sunset Overdrive. Or the Rare Replay which is sick no doubt.

Go PS4. Get it.

- a lot of people don't take the technology as seriously as the GAF hardcore gamer
- achievements, yes, a lot of people won't let go of them and "start over" on PSN
- friends, for most people playing with friends is a major factor over 1080p
- exclusive games, I don't like space marines shooting aliens but Halo is big in the USA

so yeah plenty of valid reasons to buy Xbox One, that said I'm in Europe and I bought a PS4 instead since I prefer Sony 1st party games, some exclusives as Bloodborne and of course I want the most powerful hardware, also I still remember what Microsoft tried to impose on us before their infamous 180. Competition is always a good thing though and it's a bit sad seeing the Xbox One being completely forgotten here, some shops don't even carry it since shelf space is more profitable when used for PlayStation stuff (Spain btw).

 

[BigDug13]

I agree. The Wii was an anomaly. I'm just not going to pretend Nintendo doesn't exist when looking at the industry in 2015.

You bring up good points for sure though.

Anyway, lol, I said I was done. My apologies.

I've said in the past that the true number of Nintendo fans outside of the casual soccer mom demographic that bought a Wii is probably close to GameCube numbers. So that number of millions would give a more accurate assessment of core gamers who owned a Wii.

 

[JPS Kai]

Besides Destiny, there wasn't much to move PS4 systems over the past couple months (Microsoft had the Gears of War and Forza models that sold decently well). I fully expect to see both Sony and Microsoft (MS moving more units just by sheer number of additional SKU's) over the next six months.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

9 million in the us. So what could total numbers be (world wide)? 18 million?

It's easy over 28 million shipped.

Didn't they announce 20m+ sold through during GDC in Feb?

+20,200,000

I'm not 100% but I think 25 was shipped.

Yup.

 

[bishbosh]

- a lot of people don't take the technology as seriously as the GAF hardcore gamer
- achievements, yes, a lot of people won't let go of them and "start over" on PSN
- friends, for most people playing with friends is a major factor over 1080p
- exclusive games, I don't like space marines shooting aliens but Halo is big in the USA

so yeah plenty of valid reasons to buy Xbox One, that said I'm in Europe and I bought a PS4 instead since I prefer Sony 1st party games, some exclusives as Bloodborne and of course I want the most powerful hardware, also I still remember what Microsoft tried to impose on us before their infamous 180. Competition is always a good thing though and it's a bit sad seeing the Xbox One being completely forgotten here, some shops don't even carry it since shelf space is more profitable when used for PlayStation stuff (Spain btw).

Good post, I bought the XB1 because of the achievements I had built up on the 360, also I prefer the exclusives on the XB1, but I am soon to pick up a PS4 for a few of their exclusives (UC4 mainly)

Buy both then you get the best of worlds

 

[Elandyll]

I'm not 100% but I think 25 was shipped.

Yup, what I said.

Sold in is shipped, sold through is to consumers.

 

[sooperkool]

People still argue over which toy sold more?

 

[viHuGi]

No one is saying the market is doomed but it is clear that is has shrunk by a considerable margin and likely won't match the performance of the PS360 generation.

Ps4 and Xbox One will Crush Ps360 numbers, it was the Wii with his magic powers that change the landscape.

NX needs to be insane !

 

[googleplex]

How do you get four years?

NX is likely launching in the fall of 2016, which means Xbox One and PS4 will be three years old. If they launch new systems at the five year mark then NX will only be two years old when they show up.

And yes, it's Nintendo's next gen system no matter what you think. .

No you just being disingenuous. You can try and refined what "Next Gen" is all you want but it's not going to stick. The NX will be lumped in with the PS4 Xbone. Period.

 

[mckmas8808]

No you just being disingenuous. You can try and refined what "Next Gen" is all you want but it's not going to stick. The NX will be lumped in with the PS4 Xbone. Period.

Mainly because they will have the same 3rd party games and they will look the same also.

 

[The Artisan]

Sony announced sold through ( to customers )

Microsoft's number is always shipped ( to retailers )

sony usually does but others who responded to me agree that 25 was a shipped number. As well as last year, around this time when they announced something like 13 million.

 

[EventHorizon]

Two points:

1) The Wii and Wii U are rightfully ignored because their success or failure has no bearing on the success and failure of the XB1 and PS4. Including their numbers only clouds any analysis. For the Xbox and PlayStation platforms, all first party and most third party developers already ignored the Wii and Wii U. Why should they care now what happens to it?

2) Previous console generations were heavily subsidized. If the XB1 were subsidized at the same level as last gen it would have originally sold for $343. Likewise the PS4 would have sold for $279. Simply put the PS4 and XB1 would have sold A LOT more if they had been subsidized at prior gen levels making any criticism of their current sales laughable.

                               Price if
                    Percent   Subsidized
Console  BOM  Price  of BOM    @75% BOM
=======  ===  =====  =======  ==========
  360    525   399     76%
  PS3    800   599     75%
  XB1    457   499    109%       343
  PS4    372   399    107%       279