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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

J

Javin98

Banned
[PS4] 423K
[XB1] 408K
[3DS] 90K
[WIU] 65K

Still subject to change, but I think the PS4 was ahead in October anyway.
 
S

Shabad

Member
There will only be a couple of days tracked post-Halo 5 - the most important ones in term of impact, but still. On the other side, we have the PS4 price being down the whole month, and Uncharted Collection released on the 9th should have an impact too.

This will be a close month. I would still bet on Xbox taking the crown by a small margin.

Like 7-10k
 
A

AmaterasuOni

Banned
orochi91 said:
I'm not noticing any Halo 5 launch PR or any news of record breaking Day 1 sales.

Unless I missed it?
Click to expand...

Halo 5 seems to be doing pretty bad if we're looking at the Twitch viewer numbers. Overwatch beta and Blade and Soul beta are beating it. And of course Hearthstone, DOTA2, LoL and CSGO.

Overwatch has been beating it since the launch though.

Halo 5 is at 17k and even Destiny is at 14k at the moment.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
N.Domixis said:
probably wasnt anyhting special, or are waiting for more sales.
Click to expand...

I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Primethius said:
[3DS] 140k
[PS4] 512k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 480k

Think the PS4 edges out the XB1 this month based on the more immediate impact of the price cut combined with how many days the price dropped PS4 had on the market.

I can keep revising the prediction until the deadline, correct? I want to have something here so I don't forget but I also want to see how the rest of the month plays out (and look at charts from other markets).
Click to expand...

I'm thinking this too. I think Halo might effect Nov results more than Oct.

[3DS] 115k
[PS4] 420k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 400k

These numbers will probably change a few times before deadline.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Just taking your info on things. I had always said the game itself would be a huge seller. That was without question. I always wondered how many consoles it would move though.
 
Mikey Jr.

Mikey Jr.

Member
I genuinely have no idea this month. It is a complete toss up for me. I'm leaning towards XB1 because if there is just 1 thing that defines the Xbox, its Halo. So I figure Halo has to do SOMETHING for the Xbox.

Then again, all the die hard Halo fans could have already bought an XB1 before October, especially for MCC.

Yeah, I have no idea.

It will definitely be an interesting month, thats for damn sure.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
jroc74 said:
I'm thinking this too. I think Halo might effect Nov results more than Oct.

[3DS] 115k
[PS4] 480k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 450k

These numbers will probably change a few times before deadline.
Click to expand...

It's possible but even then it kinda hard to tell how much Halo will have an impact in Nov because the marketing will no doubt be dominated by COD and Battlefront.
 
B

blakep267

Member
orochi91 said:
I'm not noticing any Halo 5 launch PR or any news of record breaking Day 1 sales.

Unless I missed it?
Click to expand...
Microsoft hasn't really been giving any concrete numbers out recently so it's not that weird. The last number they gave was halo had reached 60 mill a few months ago. They don't do the whole 1 millions sales after a week etc
 
mejin

mejin

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Abdiel, can you share some info about what games people are buying for PS4?
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
orochi91 said:
I'm not noticing any Halo 5 launch PR or any news of record breaking Day 1 sales.

Unless I missed it?
Click to expand...

I think MS knows they will lose this month and are saving the good Halo PR for the NPD. So it looks good saying halo Sold this many and so many bullets where shot and so fort...
 
O

orochi91

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the insight, Abdiel.

So basically, Halo 5 the game is selling well, but the hardware isn't seeing a substantial increase in sales because many of those interested in Halo 5 (and MS exclusives) will have already bought the XB1 by now.
 
P

Pocky4Th3Win

Member
[3DS] 80K
[PS4] 460K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 390K

Think Sonys price drop moved more consoles than Halo 5. I expected to see a press release the day after about how awesome its opening day was but its all been quiet on the news front. We saw news 24 hours after Halo 4 released about how it sold almost 2 million units in that time period... we got nothing of the sorts for Halo 5.
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

I think it was kind of expect it. Most people that wanted play Halo already have an Xbox one. The 500 dollar bundle is for those very few who waited This was already said before and I guess this kind of Proves it. Also the price the 500 price hurt it. I think Sony time the price cut just perfectly and I think MS knew about the price cut but expect it at the Paris games show not a the beginning of the month. Still I think it would be kind of shocking for MS to lose in Halo month. Next month is looking like a landslide victory for PS4.
Thanks for the info Abdiel...
 
Plague Doctor

Plague Doctor

Member
How has the post launch buzz been for Halo? Will that help into hardware adoption for Xbox and the game? That's could be a deciding factor for them taking the month or not.
 
B

Bear Force One

Banned
orochi91 said:
Appreciate the insight, Abdiel.

So basically, Halo 5 the game is selling well, but the hardware isn't seeing a substantial increase in sales because many of those interested in Halo 5 (and MS exclusives) will have already bought the XB1 by now.
Click to expand...

If true it's the Titanfall Effect all over again, where the people who wanted it already bought the console.


Time will tell.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Demacabre said:
How has the post launch buzz been for Halo? Will that help into hardware adoption for Xbox and the game? That's could be a deciding factor for them taking the month or not.
Click to expand...

I'm sure the game is great and I'm sure it'll be a HUGE seller but I was always curious about how it would push hardware sales. I mean it won't do what Halo 3 did for the 360 but we'll see.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...
Huh, very interesting. Thanks for your insight again, Abdiel. I think I might give the PS4 a slight win for October. I really wish we had more input from other retailers, though.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Javin98 said:
Huh, very interesting. Thanks for your insight again, Abdiel. I think I might give the PS4 a slight win for October. I really wish we had more input from other retailers, though.
Click to expand...

The big retailer in all this is Gamestop. Wish we had some insight from them.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...
Thank you for your observations.

This completely aligns with what I figured would occur. Halo 5 itself will sell a massive amount of units. The attach rate should be incredibly high. However, I do not see the rush for hardware being anywhere close to the software movement. It will push systems, of course, but not enough to outdo the PS4's first price cut.

I was already confident in my prediction but this has solidified how I feel.
 
J

jayu26

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info always.

Now I need to know the trend at Gamestop to figure out what my predictions will be. Do we have a current Gamestop resident Bish approved guy/gal expert?
 
T

Tubie

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Thank you so much for your insight Abdiel.

I really have no idea what to predict right now. Maybe I'll make my prediction once the final Amazon monthly chart update comes out.
 
H

harrisk954

Member
Abdiel said:
I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

The problem with the Xbox bundle to me was that it was $500! MS should have had a $399 bundle available. How do they contend with all the PS4 bundles that started at $350. Because of that, I think that PS4 wins with a bit of a cushion, even though the standalone Halo 5 probably sold a ton, especially if Amazon is any indicator.
 
R

Ricky_R

Member
Abdiel said:
I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Were there many cases that people got Halo 5 and the $349 Xbone instead?
 
freefornow

freefornow

Member
Abdiel said:
There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

Didn't MS have a large number of bundles that were significantly cheaper than the Halo bundle? While the Halo bundle may not have sold out, total sales of the console may have increased in October with consumers buying the cheaper bundles that were on offer and just picking up the software separately?
Not sure of using the Halo bundle as the yard stick works this month?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Abdiel said:
There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
Click to expand...

If you don't mind answering, was the amount of stock huge to begin with, and has failed to sell out, or was it actually limited and still failed to sell out?
 
T

Three

Member
I think halo has moved the needle for console sales. Not with the Halo bundle though, that thing is ridiculous with how it is gouging Halo fans. I reckon a bunch of prospective buyers are getting a kinect bundle and the game separately at a lower price. They get more and pay less than that stupid halo bundle.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Boke1879 said:
The big retailer in all this is Gamestop. Wish we had some insight from them.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. If you're going to preorder the Halo 5 bundle as an average gamer, you're probably going to do it at GameStop. If GameStop had PS4 > XB1 for the month, even by a little, it'd be a shoe-in for PS4 taking the month. Best Buy, while a great data point (thanks, Abdiel!), may not be enough to push the PS4 on top if GameStop did a ton of XB1 sales.

Wait. Halo 5 bundle was the digital game, right? GameStop has stopped selling digital bundles, right? Maybe GameStop is a non-factor in the Halo 5 bundle, then?

N.Domixis said:
The only predictions that matter
PS4[481k]
XB1[420k]
Click to expand...

What a strange way of messing up the format...

*Ahem* If you want your entry counted, you need to use the format in the OP.
 
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