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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Abdiel

Member
Just taking your info on things. I had always said the game itself would be a huge seller. That was without question. I always wondered how many consoles it would move though.

Yeah, I knew the game was going to be a big mover. The discussion always came down to whether the hardware push was going to be a huge swell behind it or not. I was always curious, but I'd heard Halo mentioned as a major reason behind purchasing since the launch of the hardware. There's just been various smaller 'waves' of it, so to speak.

Abdiel, can you share some info about what games people are buying for PS4?

I guess that really depends. There's huge variances in the PS4 audiences. There's folks like me, that buy a lot of Japanese titles (Toukiden, DQH, Tales, etc) who don't really care about a lot of the major titles, but they buy pretty much every major Japanese release.

There's the much larger, and much more common audience of the sports/shooter audience, who gets the Maddens, the NBA, etc. These get less games overall each year, but they are a *huge* audience. Largest audience for games like Madden, CoD, and the upcoming Battlefront as well.

There's the folks I see as the fans of what Playstation brings to the table, in the sense of the more diverse titles, which is stuff like Until Dawn, and other first party titles that aren't anywhere near true mainstream, but sell well enough to get attention.

I mean, any mainstream title also is selling best on PS4 at this point. If it's multi-platform, we see the larger share going PS4, so take that how you will. I just break things down into smaller subsets of buying trends, I guess, based on common customer habits.

Appreciate the insight, Abdiel.

So basically, Halo 5 the game is selling well, but the hardware isn't seeing a substantial increase in sales because many of those interested in Halo 5 (and MS exclusives) will have already bought the XB1 by now.

A lot of folks like MS's first party offerings, and have stated as much since the system was announced. There really wasn't much doubt as to which way they'd lean, just a matter of when it would be that they'd finally put their cash down, from my experience.

I think it was kind of expect it. Most people that wanted play Halo already have an Xbox one. The 500 dollar bundle is for those very few who waited This was already said before and I guess this kind of Proves it. Also the price the 500 price hurt it. I think Sony time the price cut just perfectly and I think MS knew about the price cut but expect it at the Paris games show not a the beginning of the month. Still I think it would be kind of shocking for MS to lose in Halo month. Next month is looking like a landslide victory for PS4.
Thanks for the info Abdiel...

I have no idea how Gamestop or Walmart look at this point. I can only speak for Best Buy, but these trends weren't really something we did anything special to make happen. We saw almost instant reactions from the price drops. People referencing all kinds of value sites or 'price savvy' apps and segments on local news/kind of things calling attention to it. Parents mentioning getting purchases done before the chaos of Black Friday. It's been really interesting to see.

Huh, very interesting. Thanks for your insight again, Abdiel. I think I might give the PS4 a slight win for October. I really wish we had more input from other retailers, though.

I do too. Wish Cornbread would offer some insight, and Shogun were still around.

Thank you for your observations.

This completely aligns with what I figured would occur. Halo 5 itself will sell a massive amount of units. The attach rate should be incredibly high. However, I do not see the rush for hardware being anywhere close to the software movement. It will push systems, of course, but not enough to outdo the PS4's first price cut.

I was already confident in my prediction but this has solidified how I feel.

I fully expect Halo 5 to be one of the most successful titles of the year, hands down. Won't beat CoD on the same platform, but it's already done fantastically well.

Thanks for the info always.

Now I need to know the trend at Gamestop to figure out what my predictions will be. Do we have a current Gamestop resident Bish approved guy/gal expert?

There's that new gent that was making comments on his gamestop store with the trade in offers they're seeing. Interesting perspectives there.

Thank you so much for your insight Abdiel.

I really have no idea what to predict right now. Maybe I'll make my prediction once the final Amazon monthly chart update comes out.

My pleasure. So tired. @_@

The problem with the Xbox bundle to me was that it was $500! MS should have had a $399 bundle available. How do they contend with all the PS4 bundles that started at $350. Because of that, I think that PS4 wins with a bit of a cushion, even though the standalone Halo 5 probably sold a ton, especially if Amazon is any indicator.

I agree the pricing was a problem. They made it a luxury item instead of a mass pricing item. It made the Halo bundle feel disconnected from the rush of the Halo appeal, if that makes sense. And some folks were less than enthused with the digital codes. Plenty of people do still want discs with their bundles.

Were there many cases that people got Halo 5 and the $349 Xbone instead?

We did have people doing that, but that's a lot harder to really weigh. Almost no one was doing that the night of the game release, since I mean, you could just grab the system at any time, and then preorder the game whenever for pickup. Really difficult to measure that sort of metric, you know? The Halo bundle made it a lot more obvious, so to speak.

Didn't MS have a large number of bundles that were significantly cheaper than the Halo bundle? While the Halo bundle may not have sold out, total sales of the console may have increased in October with consumers buying the cheaper bundles that were on offer and just picking up the software separately?
Not sure of using the Halo bundle as the yard stick works this month?

Reference above. We were still selling the other bundles and getting more preorders, but those were just sort of sales throughout the month. It's not like sales simply were dead right up to the Halo release. Consoles were still being sold, and I didn't mean to imply otherwise. Hope that makes it clearer.

If you don't mind answering, was the amount of stock huge to begin with, and has failed to sell out, or was it actually limited and still failed to sell out?

Mix of the two. We got quite a few into each of our stores, more than just enough to fulfill the preorders by far, but it feels like they may have misjudged or been too optimistic on the demand associated with the bundle itself, if that makes sense.
 

Welfare

Member
Jesus, mega post.

Wait. Halo 5 bundle was the digital game, right? GameStop has stopped selling digital bundles, right? Maybe GameStop is a non-factor in the Halo 5 bundle, then?

Halo 5 bundle was announced and available for preorder before Gamestop made that policy.

Mix of the two. We got quite a few into each of our stores, more than just enough to fulfill the preorders by far, but it feels like they may have misjudged or been too optimistic on the demand associated with the bundle itself, if that makes sense.
That's pretty interesting. Thank you.
 
What a post, Abdiel. Thanks for the info dump.

I feel a little bit more confident in my prediction now. And it seems Halo 5's on track for a fantastic opening month.

I'm totally that Japanese fan too.
 

mejin

Member
Abdiel, thank you for your insight. Hope more people like you and me show up to get more japanese love. XD
 

allan-bh

Member
I believe this last week of october will be big for Xbox One, besides Halo 5 some nice deals is going on and Kinect bundle is now $399.

Will be enough to offset PS4 early gains in the month ? We'll see on november 12.
 

Abdiel

Member
Abdiel, thank you for your insight. Hope more people like you and me show up to get more japanese love. XD

Hey man, look at what's on the docket for next year. Nier, Persona, FFXV, Star Ocean, Tales, Nights of Azure...

I will buy every damn one of those games.

(And I just beat DQH, I'm halfway through Zestiria, I just finished downloading Trails in the Sky Second Chapter, with Trails of Cold Steel next year too!)

We're in a Japanese game upswell. That's just the localized announcements. There's more stuff we haven't gotten concrete announcements for that I'm super eager for too.
 
So if in the last update on Amazon Monthly Chart we have Uncharted bundle behind Halo bundle. Will we get another April guys, where even though XB1 is on front PS4 will win because it has 2 more bundles charting close to Halo 5 bundle?
 

Bgamer90

Banned
So if in the last update on Amazon Monthly Chart we have Uncharted bundle behind Halo bundle. Will we get another April guys, where even though XB1 is on front PS4 will win because it has 2 more bundles charting close to Halo 5 bundle?

But the chart isn't counting Halo bundle sales from the previous month either. Don't see how anyone can greatly use Amazon for this month to be honest.
 

Opt1kon_

Member
Yeah, that's what I was thinking. If you're going to preorder the Halo 5 bundle as an average gamer, you're probably going to do it at GameStop. If GameStop had PS4 > XB1 for the month, even by a little, it'd be a shoe-in for PS4 taking the month. Best Buy, while a great data point (thanks, Abdiel!), may not be enough to push the PS4 on top if GameStop did a ton of XB1 sales.

Wait. Halo 5 bundle was the digital game, right? GameStop has stopped selling digital bundles, right? Maybe GameStop is a non-factor in the Halo 5 bundle, then?



What a strange way of messing up the format...

*Ahem* If you want your entry counted, you need to use the format in the OP.

I Can Confirm since I work at gamestop that the Halo 5 LE Collectors edition MSPR $249.99 and the XBOX one bundle which both came out on the 20th of October both had Digital Copies of Halo 5 Guardians included with them
 

panda-zebra

Banned
But the chart isn't counting Halo bundle sales from the previous month either. Don't see how anyone can greatly use Amazon for this month to be honest.

It was #24 in August which would account for a fair few units, AFAICT in September it was outside the top 100.
 

Conduit

Banned
I'll wait until next Wednesday for prediction. If MS don't publish any news about Halo 5 until then, i think they will lose October.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Amazon monthly, almost there.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-10/videogames


#22 Xbox One Halo 5 LE
#24 PS4 UCC

#29 PS4 SWBF LE (doesn't count for october)
#39 PS4 TLOU
#47 PS4 Destiny TKK

#50 PS4 COD BO3 (doesn't count for october)
#97 Xbox One Gears

This plus August pre orders would seem to indicate an XB1 win, but it doesn't seem to reflect the past week of sales.
Hopefully we get at least one more update before the end of the month.
Man it looks like it could be close.

PS: Thanks Abdiel as always for your infos.

PPS: We used to have a Gamestop insider... Was he banned?
 
I'm just so surprised how well Halo bundle is selling, at that price. I would have thought it stays very low on sales charts. MS must make pretty good profit with that. But I still see PS4 winning October.
 
If MS loses, then it's because of the stupid Halo bundle.

Should've have a 349€ Halo 5 bundle. The console looks shit and it's too expensive (former is subjective of course).
 

Hammer24

Banned
[PS4] 387K
[XB1] 407K
[3DS] 117K
[WIU] 77K

Didn´t we have the exact same arguments in August 2007? "Everyone who wants Halo already has a 360!"
 

Javin98

Banned
So if in the last update on Amazon Monthly Chart we have Uncharted bundle behind Halo bundle. Will we get another April guys, where even though XB1 is on front PS4 will win because it has 2 more bundles charting close to Halo 5 bundle?
The current monthly charts aren't final, though. If I'm not mistaken, it's still missing the final week of October and the Uncharted NDC bundle has been significantly ahead of the Halo 5 bundle for a few days now. Also, Amazon ran out of the Destiny and TLOU bundles halfway through the month, but I wonder if it's the case for other retailers too. The monthly charts could potentially lean more towards an XB1 win if Amazon was the only retailer that ran out of stock.
 

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
The current monthly charts aren't final, though. If I'm not mistaken, it's still missing the final week of October and the Uncharted NDC bundle has been significantly ahead of the Halo 5 bundle for a few days now. Also, Amazon ran out of the Destiny and TLOU bundles halfway through the month, but I wonder if it's the case for other retailers too. The monthly charts could potentially lean more towards an XB1 win if Amazon was the only retailer that ran out of stock.

That's right and the final week currently looks like this:

PS4 NDC bundle: #13
XBO Halo 5 bundle: #25
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #33
PS4 COD bundle: #41
XBO Gears bundle: #49
XBO Madden bundle: #68
PS4 Basic Star Wars bundle: #81
New 3DS XL: #87
XBO 500GB MCC bundle: #98
XBO 1TB Holiday bundle: #99
XBO Forza bundle: #100
 
That's right and the final week currently looks like this:

PS4 NDC bundle: #13
XBO Halo 5 bundle: #25
PS4 LE Star Wars bundle: #33
PS4 COD bundle: #41
XBO Gears bundle: #49
XBO Madden bundle: #68
PS4 Basic Star Wars bundle: #81
New 3DS XL: #87
XBO 500GB MCC bundle: #98
XBO 1TB Holiday bundle: #99
XBO Forza bundle: #100
Is there weekly charts?
 

Conduit

Banned
So if in the last update on Amazon Monthly Chart we have Uncharted bundle behind Halo bundle. Will we get another April guys, where even though XB1 is on front PS4 will win because it has 2 more bundles charting close to Halo 5 bundle?

Just my repost :

There should be one more monthly update for October. When you put it all together, Uncharted Collection bundle spent more time ( and still is ) ahead of Halo 5 bundle than Halo 5 ahead of Uncharted Collection bundle on hourly charts.
 

driver116

Member
So instead of just putting the month (10), you enter the date of the Monday of the given week?

Who knew? Good stuff.

I don't think it matters in the grand scheme of things, the monthly gets updated daily anyway.

Edit, just looking back week-by-week it looks like PS4 lead in 3 weeks of Oct (+ interim between 1-4 Oct it seems) and XB1 in 1 week of Oct.
This obviously doesn't seem to be reflected in the overall monthly chart - odd.
 
This plus August pre orders would seem to indicate an XB1 win, but it doesn't seem to reflect the past week of sales.
Hopefully we get at least one more update before the end of the month.
Man it looks like it could be close.

PS: Thanks Abdiel as always for your infos.

PPS: We used to have a Gamestop insider... Was he banned?

Yeah, we used to have The Shogun for Gamestop assessments, but unfortunately, he's no longer around =/

His insight would be quite useful since Gamestop encompasses the plurality of the marketshare.
 
Mix of the two. We got quite a few into each of our stores, more than just enough to fulfill the preorders by far, but it feels like they may have misjudged or been too optimistic on the demand associated with the bundle itself, if that makes sense.

I find this particularly telling and interesting.
 
[3DS] 80k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 445k

I think this month is really hard to predict which console will come out on top.But im going with Ps4..just
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Current Amazon rankings for two games that will be released on November 10.

#4 Fallout 4 [PS4 version]
#6 Fallout 4 [Xbone version]
#81 Rise of the Tomb Raider

Oh Square Enix.... This situation can only be commented with the immortal words of Angry Joe. "You done fucked it up, and then you did nothing to unfuck it."
 

Bgamer90

Banned
I don't think it matters in the grand scheme of things, the monthly gets updated daily anyway.

Edit, just looking back week-by-week it looks like PS4 lead in 3 weeks of Oct (+ interim between 1-4 Oct it seems) and XB1 in 1 week of Oct.
This obviously doesn't seem to be reflected in the overall monthly chart - odd.

It's not really odd. Just means that the Halo bundle did very well during that week.
 

On Demand

Banned
I don't think it matters in the grand scheme of things, the monthly gets updated daily anyway.

Edit, just looking back week-by-week it looks like PS4 lead in 3 weeks of Oct (+ interim between 1-4 Oct it seems) and XB1 in 1 week of Oct.
This obviously doesn't seem to be reflected in the overall monthly chart - odd.


1 week sales probably surpassed 3 weeks of PS4's. Just barely as seen on the monthly. Looking at it that way, it's possible after the final monthly update PS4 will still be just behind the Halo 5 bundle because total sales are still less. Or since they're so close already, PS4 will beat its total numbers.

This is just for the individual consoles of course, all the nearest PS4 bundles combined could be way higher. This is why XB1's April win was correct on Amazon even though it was one space behind PS4. The MCC bundle was only a few spaces down.


EDIT- Bgamer beat me to it with a much simpler explanation. I was in the reply window for an hour doing other things. lol.

The current monthly charts aren't final, though. If I'm not mistaken, it's still missing the final week of October and the Uncharted NDC bundle has been significantly ahead of the Halo 5 bundle for a few days now. Also, Amazon ran out of the Destiny and TLOU bundles halfway through the month, but I wonder if it's the case for other retailers too. The monthly charts could potentially lean more towards an XB1 win if Amazon was the only retailer that ran out of stock.

They both were still available at other stores.
 
No matter what amazon monthly will show - Halo console should have high preorders from previous months, counting on top of that.
Amazon will be a bad indicator for October. I have no idea at all how this will play out and I love that.I guess I will bet on the Xbox this month. Or a tie.
 

Kayant

Member
[PS4] 400K
[XB1] 415K
[3DS] 105K
[WIU] 73K

Thanks for the insight Abdiel it's making want to put PS4 ahead but I will wait for a bit and see.
 

driver116

Member
It's not really odd. Just means that the Halo bundle did very well during that week.

This is to be assumed, but it seems odd as the console only reached 19th that week.

Wk0 1-4th - PS4 22,34 XB1 81
Wk1 PS4 22,25,36 XB1 38,91,96
Wk2 PS4 26,30 XB1 19,89
Wk3 PS4 13 XB1 22,100
Wk4 PS4 13 XB1 25,49,68,98,99,100
 
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