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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

B

Blanquito

Member
Steve Ballmer hasn't seen the MAU light yet.

The company should disclose profit margins and sales for its cloud and hardware businesses, Microsoft’s former chief executive officer said.

“It’s sort of a key metric -- if they talk about it as key to the company, they should report it,” Ballmer, who is the company’s biggest individual shareholder, told Bloomberg at the software maker’s annual meeting in Bellevue, Washington.
Click to expand...

Bloomberg
 
EventHorizon

EventHorizon

Member
TheOfficeMut said:
Can someone fill me in on what the hell MAU is or link me to where this started?

Thanks
Click to expand...

MAU: Monthly Active Users

I believe everyone is mocking Microsoft for dropping the use of console sales numbers in reports to instead use monthly active users. This is widely believed to be in an attempt to hide the growing discrepancy between sales of the PS4 and XB1.

Edit:

Oh, and because Microsoft can't just come out and say that they are switching to MAUs instead of sales to hide how badly they are losing, they have to overhype the importance of MAUs in relation to sales. That comes off as an incredibly bad case of PR doublespeak. So now that PR doublespeak is being sarcastically exaggerated and treated as if it were true. It also doesn't hurt that MAU is a funny sounding word and sounds like the first name of Mao Zedong, the former Chairman of the Communist Party of China.
 
O

OléGunner

Member
Y2Kev said:
Our Father, MAU,
Who art selling Services,
Downloadable be your games.
Thy Services matter,
Though thoust hardware sales splatter,
Except for in the US and UK.

Give us this month,
An active user,
And ignore the other metrics,
As we ignore those who are not monthly and not active.
Lead us not into low margin businesses,
But sell us thine Services forever.
Amen.
Click to expand...

MAU first broke Cosmic and has now turned Kev towards the church of MAU.

RexNovis said:
Do you guys think the Black Friday sales of XB1+PS4 will grow at a similar rate as UK (~14%) this year? I feel like it is likely to be less for Black Friday specifically but significantly more for the whole month of November thanks to the release of big AAA games with bundles in the weeks before BF.
Click to expand...

I agree that it will be more for the entire month but I suspect PS4 is up for Black Friday specifically thanks to the price drop. XB1 Black Friday sales will be a bit lower but that's just because Microsoft went balls to the wall crazy last year to recover market share.

By pure virtue of more mega titles and bundles for Star Wars, Fallout, Blops III etc all consoles will be up yoy (similar percentage to UK).
 
J

Javin98

Banned
EventHorizon said:
MAU: Monthly Active Users

I believe everyone is mocking Microsoft for dropping the use of console sales numbers in reports to instead use monthly active users. This is widely believed to be in an attempt to hide the growing discrepancy between sales of the PS4 and XB1.
Click to expand...
Blasphemy! Those of us who truly saw the holy light of MAU know that sales are nothing more than lies by corporations to conceal the truth about what really matters in the industry.
 
A

Amused

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
I was "whutting" the 2.2 million in November.
I mean... That's super low.

If PS4 Will sell only 1 million in Nov NPD, which is almost a given in My opinion, this mean the US sales are over 45%.

We shoul Know that's impossible.

PS4 sales should be ~3 million or more in November most likely.
Click to expand...

Yup - I didn't know what I was takling about numbers wise, thanks to you and others for pointing out the error :)

The main point however was "November was ps4s biggest month ever" as something that would have a bigger impact than "ps4 won BF".
 
B

Blackleg-sanji1

Banned
Javin98 said:
Blasphemy! Those of us who truly saw the holy light of MAU know that sales are nothing more than lies by corporations to conceal the truth about what really matters in the industry.
Click to expand...
Here here!! I already sent a 666 page letter to npd of why they should stop spreading these sales lies and focus on what's important
 
3

3rdamention

Member
EventHorizon said:
MAU: Monthly Active Users

I believe everyone is mocking Microsoft for dropping the use of console sales numbers in reports to instead use monthly active users. This is widely believed to be in an attempt to hide the growing discrepancy between sales of the PS4 and XB1.

Edit:

Oh, and because Microsoft can't just come out and say that they are switching to MAUs instead of sales to hide how badly they are losing, they have to overhype the importance of MAUs in relation to sales. That comes off as an incredibly bad case of PR doublespeak. So now that PR doublespeak is being sarcastically exaggerated and treated as if it were true. It also doesn't hurt that MAU is a funny sounding word and sounds like the first name of Mao Zedong, the former Chairman of the Communist Party of China.
Click to expand...



The one thing that I find interesting about Microsoft's new sales metric, MAUs, is that about a month or so after they make that call, where they are only going to report MAUs, they have that $1 for one month of Xbox Live Sales.

Now I know that getting these people in for $1 a month will open up Microsoft to some potential users that will spend money, or open the door back up to past users that could spend money again. Thats great! I just found it convenient that they have this best deal on Xbox Live you can find, about a month after making the change.


So you know for November's NPD PR, we are going to get a crazy astronomical % increase for MAUs for the month of November. It will play very nicely with their Holiday PR statements for sure. And I am having a hard time actually believing that Microsoft really doesn't want to share console sales anymore. I just dont think they want to share them when they are lower than they want. If they sell more Xbox Ones this Holiday Post Season than last, I bet they are going to get some YOY% increase in their PR about console sales, despite them saying they weren't interested in sharing those numbers any more.
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Another reason they switched to MAU is because it basically let them double their XBox numbers. Remember, Mehdi just said they had nearly as many active users on Windows as they do the consoles.

Another reason they switched to MAU is because in a few years, they'll have 10x the users on Windows, as people say, "You need my email to play Solitaire? Okay, whatever. Details, details … blah, blah, blah … accept, accept … FINALLY!! YES, login automatically …"
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Y2Kev said:
Our Father, MAU,
Who art selling Services,
Downloadable be your games.
Thy Services matter,
Though thoust hardware sales splatter,
Except for in the US and UK.

Give us this month,
An active user,
And ignore the other metrics,
As we ignore those who are not monthly and not active.
Lead us not into low margin businesses,
But sell us thine Services forever.
Amen.
Click to expand...

and it's still early LMAO.
 
EventHorizon

EventHorizon

Member
3rdamention said:
The one thing that I find interesting about Microsoft's new sales metric, MAUs, is that about a month or so after they make that call, where they are only going to report MAUs, they have that $1 for one month of Xbox Live Sales.

Now I know that getting these people in for $1 a month will open up Microsoft to some potential users that will spend money, or open the door back up to past users that could spend money again. Thats great! I just found it convenient that they have this best deal on Xbox Live you can find, about a month after making the change.
Click to expand...

Monthly active users includes both paid (Gold) and unpaid (Silver) accounts, so the $1 sale shouldn't really change much. That also just highlights why it's such a poor metric. It's quite easy to get many such accounts for each console sold which will inflate the reported XB1's numbers. Say that on average 1.3 new accounts are created for each console sold. If you do an apples-to-oranges comparison of the number of Xbox MAUs vs PS4 sales, the MAUs will benefit by up to 30%. It's just one more level that Microsoft's PR can now use to craft favorable sounding PR statements.

serversurfer said:
Another reason they switched to MAU is because it basically let them double their XBox numbers. Remember, Mehdi just said they had nearly as many active users on Windows as they do the consoles.

Another reason they switched to MAU is because in a few years, they'll have 10x the users on Windows, as people say, "You need my email to play Solitaire? Okay, whatever. Details, details … blah, blah, blah … accept, accept … FINALLY!! YES, login automatically …"
Click to expand...

Damn, I forgot this lets them roll in Windows users too. See how easy it is to confuse people.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
slavesnyder said:
We want MAU_George
Click to expand...

But we already do.

npdmau_zps0ho40prz.png


It all makes sense now.
 
C

Cereal Enthusiast

Banned
I just read something interesting on the Amazon's reviews of the Uncharted PS4 bundle:
For the great price I couldn't pass up on this item. I have a PS3. I've never played the Uncharted games but it's from the makers of The Last of Us and that game was one of the best games I ever played
Click to expand...

The Last of Us really built some insane reputation for Naughty Dog. People are willing to play Uncharted (even if they're not particularly interested in it) just because they know it's from the dudes who made The Last of Us.
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
I believe it was MAU Tse-Tung who said:

Sales is console war without bloodshed while console war is sales with bloodshed.
Console war can only be abolished through console war, and in order to get rid of the controller it is necessary to take up the controller.
Sales power grows out of the buttons of a controller.
Click to expand...
 
B

Blackleg-sanji1

Banned
Cereal Enthusiast said:
I just read something interesting on the Amazon's reviews of the Uncharted PS4 bundle:


The Last of Us really built some insane reputation for Naughty Dog. People are willing to play Uncharted (even if they're not particularly interested in it) just because they know it's from the dudes who made The Last of Us.
Click to expand...
I mean its a given. Which is why i think uncharted 4 will have big success. Coming off the high that is the last of us, first uncharted on ps4 with a collection be bundled in with many ps4s add to he the fact naughty dog is touting nates last adventure and ps4's 35 mil install base(should be) Uncharted 4 is looking at really good MAU numbers
 
K

Kyougar

Member
serversurfer said:
Another reason they switched to MAU is because it basically let them double their XBox numbers. Remember, Mehdi just said they had nearly as many active users on Windows as they do the consoles.

Another reason they switched to MAU is because in a few years, they'll have 10x the users on Windows, as people say, "You need my email to play Solitaire? Okay, whatever. Details, details … blah, blah, blah … accept, accept … FINALLY!! YES, login automatically …"
Click to expand...

The thing is: Microsoft has a gobal Microsoft account System. Every Microsoft Account is a Live Account, is a Skype Account, is an Office Account, is a Windows 10/8 Account.

Do we trust them enough, that they dont include Office, Skype and Windows users that dont open the Xbox or Windows marketplace?

It would be the same as if WalMart would (for whatever reason) talk about their cheese section in their Stores and how many million people go to Walmart daily. What they dont say is, how many go to the Cheese section.

For obvious reasons, Microsoft doesnt tell us the active spending users metric.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Btw leaving MAUs apart for a second it's clear that this year we won't get a Black Friday specific press release.
Next sales update will be directly with the November NPD datas or (unlikely) with Sony briefly commenting on holiday season sales during the PSX.
 
Bolivar687

Bolivar687

Banned
When do we expect the press releases to start coming out?

I'm interested in knowing how the Xbox lineup did across the last few months, especially the community metrics for Forza Mautorsport 6.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Bolivar687 said:
When do we expect the press releases to start coming out?

I'm interested in knowing how the Xbox lineup did across the last few months, especially the community metrics for Forza Mautorsport 6.
Click to expand...

Pretty much anytime. They could tip their hand on performance on BF alone, the month of November, domestic or WW, etc. NPD releases next Thursday afternoon.
 
G

GobFather

Member
anexanhume said:
Pretty much anytime. They could tip their hand on performance on BF alone, the month of November, domestic or WW, etc. NPD releases next Thursday afternoon.
Click to expand...
NPD for nov is next Thursday ? I hope Sony says something during PSX this sat. Everyone has been quiet lol
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Black Friday is old news now. Nothing's coming out before NPD release unless Sony does its over 30m thing and maybe a PS+ MAU update on Saturday. We know which one is more important.
 
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