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[Vena]

That's how console cycles go. As they get cheaper in price they become more popular with the demographics you've mentioned, which is exactly why you see the 360 leading in those areas.

Recent console cycles have not gone this way (PS2/Wii/DS). Wide market adoption was there day one, the 360 rekindled mass market adoption after the Wii with Kinect but the market was always engaged. I don't see this market at all anymore unless a Pokemon game comes out, and I don't see anyone trying to appeal to them either. Last years NPD was much the same sans Pokemon taking up two spots. Month in and month out, family oriented titles are performing better on 360/Wii.

Mobile is their platform now and no one is giving them a reason to move on from the old hardware, and that will impact the long term.

Can you elaborate on "extended audience"? How much would an extended audience really change things up considering how massive this demographic is?

The audience that helped the PS2, Wii, and DS reach record breaking highs. I don't see that audience here, or anywhere for that matter in the console space anymore. I don't see them being catered to either. What I see, while a great result from an outside view, is the consolidation of the 360/PS3 core onto the PS4 and to a lesser extent whatever is left of the Xbox core fan on the Xbox.

Great results in the now. No footing for long term propagation.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Yup, they'll have to leverage their IPs like they've been doing.

So their consoles won't light up the charts but they'll have income from apps, the theme park, amiibos, movie deals, etc.

Seems like the best way to go I think. Making a system that can directly compete with the ps4/xb1 isn't the best idea.

At this point Nintendo shouldn't be releasing a new home console at all. It's actively counterproductive to keep your games off of the mainstream consoles just so you can sell hardware to your 15 million most devoted nostalgists - Nintendo is hemorrhaging mindshare every year that a new cohort of gamers doesn't have access to their games, and they're hemorrhaging customers every time someone with fond memories of his N64 can't buy any Nintendo games to rekindle that affection.

 

[Hoje0308]

SE likes money and MS wanted an exclusive.

FTFY

 

[Jigorath]

Nintendo is in such a rough spot next year even though. I mean PS4 is going to be firing on all cylinders in terms of software.

NX is going to be launching against $299 (possible even $249) consoles with a ton of 1st and 3rd party software. It'll be interesting to see how Nintendo plans to compete.

 

[Memento]

NX is probably going to have a portable SKU. PS4 isn't likely to be much of an issue for its chances in Japan.

It is going to be two consoles then? I dont get it.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

FTFY

We don't know how much the deal really was, SE likes to play king maker, and they made a bet that the xbone would be on top and they made the wrong bet.

 

[Ghost Slayer]

Seriously. NX will have its best chance in Japan, and 2016 will be the year in which japanese software really shines on PS4. Good luck I guess.

NX need to get exclusive or timed exclusive 3rd Japanese games though. Most people predict JRPGs announced for PS4 will come to NX but I think that isn't enough. Sure, if Nintendo only aim to sell NX in Japan, they probably don't need that since Japanese love Nintendo anyway. But if they want to sell it worldwide, hell they really need miracle, 3rd party support from both Japanese and western publisher is a must, they can't rely on their 1st party games again like WiiU

 

[OrbitalBeard]

It is going to be two consoles then? I dont get it.

A family of systems. Think iOS. Think PS4 and Vita cross-buy taken to the next level.

 

[watdaeff4]

eh, it's still bad.

being flat YOY is nice....except when you remember that the previous year was also bad.


EDIT:
I wonder, what was the last time PS2 was a leading SKU for a charting game?
That'd be interesting.
Wii has one 9 years after release. Wonder if the PS2 pulled something similar. Or DS.

Expectations I guess. Hard to expect them to pull off considerably more than that at this point. WiiU has been dead from the beginning.

Your correct it's not good. But considering its sales history and such along with what I stated previously.....it's not that bad given the context IMO

 

[DriftingSpirit]

The audience that helped the PS2, Wii, and DS reach record breaking highs. I don't see that audience here, or anywhere for that matter in the console space anymore. I don't see them being catered to either. What I see, while a great result from an outside view, is the consolidation of the 360/PS3 core onto the PS4 and to a lesser extent whatever is left of the Xbox core fan on the Xbox.

Great results in the now. No footing for long term propagation.

So what are you seeing as the roof for these systems? I don't see them reaching record breaking highs but I don't think that is necessarily a problem either.

 

[Maniel]

.

So basically you are saying that this gen will have no legs. We are entering these consoles third years, the standard peak year of a console, and it is looking like they will reach new heights in their sales. I don't understand where your doubts are coming from. They may not hit ps2 and ds sales, but ps4 should make it to 100m.

 

[mjp2417]

Depend of what budget for Scalebound, Activision-Platinum games like Transformer could be ignored about bad sales since it's budget game anyway. When I look at Scalebound (big world/dragons/generic main character aim to Western audience/action-RPG), I don't think it's small project or something that MS want to sell just "well"

I actually think MS is probably expecting to take a bit of a loss on this one. It's a play for the future of the brand, rather than present profits.

 

[Superman00]

PS4 is gonna hit 35M by the end of the year. Did people forget that the PS4 sold 4.1M from Nov 23, 2014-Jan 4 2015?

 

[Memento]

A family of systems. Think iOS. Think PS4 and Vita cross-buy taken to the next level.

Interesting. But very risky, isnt it?

 

[Jigorath]

NX need to get exclusive or timed exclusive 3rd Japanese games though. Most people predict JRPGs announced for PS4 will come to NX but I think that isn't enough. Sure, if Nintendo only aim to sell NX in Japan, they probably don't need that since Japanese love Nintendo anyway. But if they want to sell it worldwide, hell they really need miracle, 3rd party support from both Japanese and western publisher is a must, they can't rely on their 1st party games again like WiiU

Japanese 3rd party games means very little in the West outside of a handful of franchises (Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Dark Souls, Dragon Ball Z, Street Fighter, etc.)

 

[Goodacre0081]

I'd buy it again if it released in summer. But if it releases in fall...

... best lineup in PS4 history

 

[sörine]

It is going to be two consoles then? I dont get it.

Best guess is both handheld and console skus. Maybe more devices even. NX might refer to the OS running them all rather than each hardware formfactor, think iOS or Android.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Interesting. But very risky, isnt it?

Sure, but Nintendo is kind of in a place where they need to take risks.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

I don't think Microsoft is funding Scalebound because they are expecting it to sell well. They are funding it to establish that they are home to more than Halo/Gears/Forza. There has been a concentrated re-branding initiative over the past two years, and this is almost certainly part of it.

Brand building isn't effective when things are just one and done. I don't think MS is effective at releasing off brand titles and nurturing them to enough of a success that a sequel can be released and then continue to build.

Instead every generation it feels like they take a shotgun approach and announce a bunch of titles that seem pretty diverse (LO, Blue Dragon, Banjo Nuts & Bolts, D3, etc) but they just kind of release and go nowhere and aren't heard from again. Even with Alan Wake I feel like Remedy did a better job at marketing the PC release than MS did the 360 release and, as result, I feel like a lot of the positive conversation about AW has been largely a result of the PC exposure.

 

[Cess007]

We don't know how much the deal really was, SE likes to play king maker, and they made a bet that the xbone would be on top and they made the wrong bet.

I don't think they actually believed XBO would be on top anywhere in the world (maaaybe UK?), but i don't think the anticipated that the gap would be that huge. And even less that Fallout 4 would release on the same date.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Sure, but Nintendo is kind of in a place where they have to take risks.

Isn't being risky what led to the WiiU?

Of course now it's risky mixed with desperation.

 

[Vena]

So what are you seeing as the roof for these systems? I don't see them reaching record breaking highs but I don't think that is necessarily a problem either.

Never said it was a problem for the consoles, as I said, they are still selling well and software is still moving. Just an observation to who's here and who's buying.

So basically you are saying that this gen will have no legs. We are entering these consoles third years, the standard peak year of a console, and it is looking like they will reach new heights in their sales. I don't understand where your doubts are coming from. They may not hit ps2 and ds sales, but ps4 should make it to 100m.

That's actually pretty much in-line with my current expectations, but as I said, I see it as the consolidation of the PS3/360 crowd onto the PS4 to achieve those numbers.

 

[Kyoufu]

Isn't being risky what led to the WiiU?

Being risky is what led to the Wii.

Being foolish is what led to the Wii U.

 

[kswiston]

A family of systems. Think iOS. Think PS4 and Vita cross-buy taken to the next level.

Nintendo won't even let you cross buy their 30 year old NES roms. While I do think the handheld and console SKUs will share games, I am not entirely convinced that Nintendo will let you buy software once for both system versions.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Isn't being risky what led to the WiiU?

It also led to DS and Wii. Not all gambles pay off.

Nintendo won't even let you cross buy their 30 year old NES roms. While I do think the handheld and console SKUs will share games, I am not entirely convinced that Nintendo will let you buy software once for both system versions.

I'm not convinced either, but if they don't, it's an insanely huge missed opportunity.

 

[Michael F. Assbender]

Being risky is what led to the Wii.

Being foolish is what led to the Wii U.

Touché.

 

[heidern]

No one is saying they wouldn't survive in 2016 without new hardware. Survival isn't enough though. Blackberry is currently "surviving".

The very quote I was replying to was saying this:

So do we really believe the Wii U can survive another year on the market by itself? Or the 3DS for that matter?

3DS is also selling around 50m games a year worldwide, it would take 2 or 3 years before a successor could match that. Both the hardware and software is cheap to develop and profitable. They could stick with it for another 3 years if they wanted, it's going to be a highly profitable system once all is said and done if it isn't already.

The Wii U is doing a lot worse, but better than it was doing, it sells around 20m games a year. It's not going to win awards or make big profit, it might make a modest loss overall in fact, but it's doing well enough that Nintendo don't need to rush a successor. If they can get a quality next-gen product out for 2016 then they will but it won't be a problem if they have to release in 2017.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

pokemon go will boost nintendo, it will be huge!

 

[Led_Zeppelin]

Recent console cycles have not gone this way (PS2/Wii/DS). Wide market adoption was there day one, the 360 rekindled mass market adoption after the Wii with Kinect but the market was always engaged. I don't see this market at all anymore unless a Pokemon game comes out, and I don't see anyone trying to appeal to them either. Last years NPD was much the same sans Pokemon taking up two spots. Month in and month out, family oriented titles are performing better on 360/Wii.

Mobile is their platform now and no one is giving them a reason to move on from the old hardware, and that will impact the long term.



The audience that helped the PS2, Wii, and DS reach record breaking highs. I don't see that audience here, or anywhere for that matter in the console space anymore. I don't see them being catered to either. What I see, while a great result from an outside view, is the consolidation of the 360/PS3 core onto the PS4 and to a lesser extent whatever is left of the Xbox core fan on the Xbox.

Great results in the now. No footing for long term propagation.

I could see how the blue ocean market expanded the Wii and DS reach, but I don't see it for the PS2, I don't remember big family titles being much more popular on the PS2 or even being that many in the first place. Maybe if you consider that the PS2 was a cheap DVD player but I don't even remember what I paid for my first DVD player back in 2000 so I don't even know if the PS2 was an actual cheap DVD player when it was released.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

The very quote I was replying to was saying this:


3DS is also selling around 50m games a year worldwide, it would take 2 or 3 years before a successor could match that. Both the hardware and software is cheap to develop and profitable. They could stick with it for another 3 years if they wanted, it's going to be a highly profitable system once all is said and done if it isn't already.

The Wii U is doing a lot worse, but better than it was doing, it sells around 20m games a year. It's not going to win awards or make big profit, it might make a modest loss overall in fact, but it's doing well enough that Nintendo don't need to rush a successor. If they can get a quality next-gen product out for 2016 then they will but it won't be a problem if they have to release in 2017.

It'll be a massive problem for consumer mind share and investor confidence. Nintendo really has to get a new console out next year if at all possible.

 

[Final Verdict]

Hey guys, did we get any solid numbers for they systems or games yet?

 

[NDP_Mulcair]

Hello NeoGAF forums! I've finally finished reading through this thread, and it's quite fascinating!

Thank you all for the kind words, or for those who pined for my return.

I would very much like to share some data points from The NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) report for November 2015 throughout the next few days as I float in and out of the thread.

I am of course, very busy with personal projects at the moment. But I will definitely get around to sharing some interesting tidbits of data that don't materially affect The NPD Group's bottom line.



Looking over the data feeds, it is abundantly apparent that I am not very good at predicting Xbox One and PS4 solely on intuition! Hahahaha



I have a question. I've noticed that there is someone named "ZhugeEx" who seems to have been quoted a lot in the thread. Who is ZhugeEx? Is he someone important?

 

[Jack The Nipper]

I want old tomb raider. Would have sold more if it was like that.

Good numbers, I'm shocked wii u can be that low.

Zhug is a computer data base that keeps up with sales data 24 hours a day.

 

[demigod]

There's got to be a clause in that Tomb Raider deal. My guess is that it'll release in Summer next year.

Also MS why ya'll let me down on the no spin?

 

[VARIA]

Daaaaamn, Halo just doesn't hold the same drawing power that it once used to.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Recent console cycles have not gone this way (PS2/Wii/DS). Wide market adoption was there day one, the 360 rekindled mass market adoption after the Wii with Kinect but the market was always engaged. I don't see this market at all anymore unless a Pokemon game comes out, and I don't see anyone trying to appeal to them either.

Mobile is their platform now, and that will impact the long term.

The audience that helped the PS2, Wii, and DS reach record breaking highs. I don't see that audience here, or anywhere for that matter in the console space anymore. I don't see them being catered to either. What I see, while a great result from an outside view, is the consolidation of the 360/PS3 core onto the PS4 and to a lesser extent whatever is left of the Xbox core fan on the Xbox.

Great results in the now. No footing for long term propagation.

It's important not to conflate what "wide market adoption" meant in generation six and what it meant in generation seven. The bestselling games on PS2 for its first years on the market were almost entirely core games. The blue ocean demographic didn't start showing up until the system was in impulse purchase territory - and there's no reason to expect this generation to be any different. This is normal for home consoles: they need to launch at high price points to be attractive to the core, and this renders them unattractive to the non-core until the prices come down.

The Wii was an anomaly, and it's not going to be repeated. This isn't a problem: the home console market is obviously quite robust.

The only way consoles won't have "footing for long term propagation" is if we see large-scale defection from consoles on the part of young children. But I've seen no evidence of this.

 

[sörine]

pokemon go will boost nintendo, it will be huge!

Isn't Pokémon Co. self-publishing that? I thought Nintendo was only making the bracelet thing?

 

[ProfessorMoran]

I don't think they actually believed XBO would be on top anywhere in the world (maaaybe UK?), but i don't think the anticipated that the gap wouldn't be that huge. And even less that Fallout 4 would release on the same date.

They clearly miscalculated and while we can speculate how much MS could have compensated them, they must be realizing how much the deal has negatively impacted the long term popularity of the franchise.

 

[kswiston]

I have a question. I've noticed that there is someone named "ZhugeEx" who seems to have been quoted a lot in the thread. Who is ZhugeEx? Is he someone important?

He used to post on NeoGAF, but had his account banned. I think he just takes public data released in various press writeups and makes extrapolations/commentary based on it. He was popular in these threads for awhile, but I don't think he had any more info than anyone else that pays close attention to sales numbers.

People still follow him on twitter, hence the posts.

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

Isn't Pokémon Co. self-publishing that? I thought Nintendo was only making the bracelet thing?

i guess nintendo is on there own then...

pokemon go will be huge nonetheless!

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Daaaaamn, Halo just doesn't hold the same drawing power that it once used to.

Simple, halo isn't the game a lot of fans want. The simple answer.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Trump? Not cool. You're all a bunch of evil mofos!

<3

 

[Vena]

I could see how the blue ocean market expanded the Wii and DS reach, but I don't see it for the PS2, I don't remember big family titles being much more popular on the PS2 or even being that many in the first place. Maybe if you consider that the PS2 was a cheap DVD player but I don't even remember what I paid for my first DVD player back in 2000 so I don't even know if the PS2 was an actual cheap DVD player when it was released.

It was the DVD player that opened the door on the PS2 as a mass market product. It was one of the cheapest (of its type) products on the market for a general consumer, making the system an easy choice over other players that could also entertain Little Billy with his games. The Wii/DS just outright kicked the door down with motion gaming, and then NetFlix. Both had something for the mass market from the onset, and they were marketed/sold properly on that fact.

These are obviously non-existent factors for the PS4.

Seriously. NX will have its best chance in Japan, and 2016 will be the year in which japanese software really shines on PS4. Good luck I guess.

We're at a point in time where, in Japan, a console game is going to be lucky to outsell Splatoon, let alone grab anywhere near its level of mindshare. Japan isn't Nintendo's problem, not when you throw Pokemon, Animal Crossing, and Mario onto the pile.

The problem is the rest of the world.

 

[Hoje0308]

Recent console cycles have not gone this way (PS2/Wii/DS). Wide market adoption was there day one, the 360 rekindled mass market adoption after the Wii with Kinect but the market was always engaged. I don't see this market at all anymore unless a Pokemon game comes out, and I don't see anyone trying to appeal to them either. Last years NPD was much the same sans Pokemon taking up two spots. Month in and month out, family oriented titles are performing better on 360/Wii.

Mobile is their platform now and no one is giving them a reason to move on from the old hardware, and that will impact the long term.



The audience that helped the PS2, Wii, and DS reach record breaking highs. I don't see that audience here, or anywhere for that matter in the console space anymore. I don't see them being catered to either. What I see, while a great result from an outside view, is the consolidation of the 360/PS3 core onto the PS4 and to a lesser extent whatever is left of the Xbox core fan on the Xbox.

Great results in the now. No footing for long term propagation.

I don't remember this market existing day one on PS2. Remove Nintendo and the top selling games in 2001 were GTA, Madden, Metal Gear, GT3, Tony Hawk and Driver. The following year was dominated by two GTAs, Madden, GT3, Medal of Honor and Halo. Due to poor sales, Nintendo has effectively removed itself and suddenly current trends don't look that much different than they did back then.

 

[ninjablade]

Being risky is what led to the Wii.

Being foolish is what led to the Wii U.

WiiU was pretty risky, everything looks foolish when it fails, I thought the wii was foolish cause it was barely more powerful when a GC. Still think it's foolish today cause it's made them miss a gen where third-party franchises took over.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Hello NeoGAF forums! I've finally finished reading through this thread, and it's quite fascinating!

Thank you all for the kind words, or for those who pined for my return.

I would very much like to share some data points from The NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) report for November 2015 throughout the next few days as I float in and out of the thread.

I am of course, very busy with personal projects at the moment. But I will definitely get around to sharing some interesting tidbits of data that don't materially affect The NPD Group's bottom line.



Looking over the data feeds, it is abundantly apparent that I am not very good at predicting Xbox One and PS4 solely on intuition! Hahahaha



I have a question. I've noticed that there is someone named "ZhugeEx" who seems to have been quoted a lot in the thread. Who is ZhugeEx? Is he someone important?

Your such a nice and friendly guy, definitely the one we need.

Can we get numbers for things like until dawn, Splatoon.

 

[heidern]

At this point Nintendo shouldn't be releasing a new home console at all. It's actively counterproductive to keep your games off of the mainstream consoles just so you can sell hardware to your 15 million most devoted nostalgists - Nintendo is hemorrhaging mindshare every year that a new cohort of gamers doesn't have access to their games, and they're hemorrhaging customers every time someone with fond memories of his N64 can't buy any Nintendo games to rekindle that affection.

It'll be a massive problem for consumer mind share and investor confidence. Nintendo really has to get a new console out next year if at all possible.

Mindshare is overrated. Gamecube had comparable mindshare to the Wii U since it only did 20m whereas Wii U is looking to get to over 15m if they supported a 5 year life cycle. Gamecube didn't stop Wii getting to 100m so I don't see the Wii U being a problem for the NX. The problem for the NX will be whether it's any good or not.

3DS is also projected to get to around shipped 60m by March, so it should eventually end up around 70m-80m which is comparable to GBA, PS3 and 360.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Being risky is what led to the Wii.

Being foolish is what led to the Wii U.

Yeah, I can't really argue with that, though they certainly took some risks.

 

[Hoje0308]

... best lineup in PS4 history

Yep, and then there are X1 exclusives and multiplats.

 

[Mooreberg]

Nothing about the supremacy of cross platform games is even remotely surprising. It has been this way since 2009. We are now more than half a decade into an era where COD does more for Xbox than Halo. Sony has been pretty smart to place their first party titles where they can perform best, and not get steamrolled by very obvious sales behemoths. March will be a perfect window for Uncharted 4 to make a strong debut.

Tomb Raider was counter-programming for a game that is not even shipping this season. It is not even remotely similar enough to Fallout to have made a dent in what that audience was going to purchase. I hope Square Enix does not fuck anything up with Deus Ex. I am starting to wonder if Just Cause 3 is going to be "strike two" once we see the December numbers next month. Rushing out a poorly optimized game just after Black Friday, in a market awash with open world games, seems like a recipe for failure. I know FarCry 3 did well in the long run after a December release, but the reception of that game was immensely more positive.