People say this but I think you need to look at last year and why Xbone had a bigger sell-through for CoD this year. Last year, MS still had 30 day DLC window. So most CoD only players bought a Xbone because of that reason. Now that the tables have switched, most normal people won't go out and buy a brand new console for one yearly game. The Xbone users are holdovers from last year, which is the reason it sold more. I think the next Nov release will be more sided for PS4.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
People say this but I think you need to look at last year and why Xbone had a bigger sell-through for CoD this year. Last year, MS still had 30 day DLC window. So most CoD only players bought a Xbone because of that reason. Now that the tables have switched, most normal people won't go out and buy a brand new console for one yearly game. The Xbone users are holdovers from last year, which is the reason it sold more. I think the next Nov release will be more sided for PS4.
Yeah, but it won't be like that forever. PS4 is not getting 150 million units. It'll be lucky to get 100 million at its final tally
Aceofspades
Banned
So when looking at the overall sales WW for X1. What is the estimated sales numbers for X1 during 2015? It seems like MS sold less than 8m for the year. those sales are seriously low and isn't starting to be outpaced by 360 and PS3?
Welfare
Member
Probably less than 6 million as of the end of November.
Dash_Riprock
Member
That depends entirely on whether or not Sony can get its price down below $200. PS3 has been $200 for years now with no price drop in sight.
The reason why smartphones could get away with a two-year cycle is because smartphones until recently were subsidized by the cell service carriers and those subsidized plans last for, guess what, two years! It had been the better option to just get a new smartphone every two years rather than keep the old one because of the subsidized plans. There is a reason why this did not translate to televisions, tablets, PCs, or set top boxes which are kept around until they break down or are outdated for general purposes that a typical consumer uses these devices for.
small44
Member
It's 99% sure that PS4 will sell over 100 millions but i agree that it have no change to top PS2 sales
Since a new model will be more powerful how the new games will work on the ancient model and the games that are already released on the old model need to get an graphics updates one by one.
Primethius
Banned
8 or less seems like a good bet for the entire year.
We should have a more concrete estimation if we get some updated LTD numbers from EU countries by the end of the year/beginning of next one to get a barometer of what percentage of sales the ROTW makes up for XB1.
cartographer
Member
It will likely fall behind the 360 sometime next year. When exactly will depend on Euro numbers for 2015.
I think the question is how long till Sony announces the PS5.
Considering how underpowered these machines are, I have a feeling that this gen won't last too long compared to the last.
Maybe emergency announcement in the next few weeks. These sales are way too good with their current strategy, bring the $800 BOM PS5.
This would be bad. There's a ton of current gen only games coming out, therefore causing people to buy current gen only consoles now. We are getting into the peak of the PS4 and Xbox One's life in terms of their game library. People who just bought a PS4 would be very upset if there's an announcement for a newer model that has more power just a year or so later.
Bad examples. Nintendo has been doing remodels for their handhelds for a long time (more than 10 years) and the Elite is just a controller (there has always been multiple options and prices for controllers). It's also a controller that will work for all Xbox One users and not just people who (say) bought the system this year.
Bad idea in my opinion. I get why people (especially the more hardcore) would have no problem with laying down the extra money in ditching their old PS4 and getting a "PS4 Plus" but a new model like that would create too many questions. "What model is best for me?", "Should I even put the time/effort into making features for me game specifically for PS4 Plus if the majority of people are on the regular model?", "What's the difference? What games make better use of the Plus? Are they games I'm even interested in?", "Is my old system useless now?", etc.
Again, all questions similar to what people were saying in terms of SEGA products during the middle of the '90s. The home console space will never be ready for this. There's too much of a foundation/expectation for a successful console getting top of the line support for at least 5 years before it gets outdated by its successor.
Narpas Sword0
Member
Let's see what you said:
Whatever you say bro
As for what you were responding to:
I don't see the word fluke. Who's making up their own argument again?
small44
Member
Consoles was always weaker then PC nothing really changed,people who buy consoles are not only caring about graphics if it was the case they would simply play on pc.
And the fact that cross-gen games lasted so long prove that 3rd party don't want shorter gen.
I don't think underpoweredness relative to PC's really matters much to the longevity of these consoles. What really matters i think is that that platform holders feel they can move on with a clean break without loosing anything in the process.
With PS3 and 360, the costs associated with dropping them before 2013 would have been unfeasible considering how much money they lost trying to get them to market and then shrunk down into a form factor that allowed a healthy profit
Primethius
Banned
I'm not even sure if the relative power of the machines even determines how long the generation lasts.
The 360 and PS3 might have been powerful when they came out but that generation went on too long regardless of the power of the machines.
I don't think PS4 will be "lucky" to reach 100 million. Seems like a given at this rate.
The question is if Xbox One can reach half of that.
PanicFreak
Member
They do look perfectly fine but that doesn't change that they are underpowered laptop crap.
Is the rate of sale really feasible for PS4 to hit 100 million by 2019?
^ And that is only a mental perception that people have. Who cares about the hardware if it makes games well enough that are beautiful? Just because people know the HW isn't bleeding edge doesn't mean a thing for their viability.
All depends on how long the gen will last.
It took two years to reach 30 million and that's mostly at $399 without a lot of major IPs still to be released. There's no doubt in my mind for me.
Besides, PS2 didn't stop selling when PS3 launched.
gundamkyoukai
Member
By the end of 2019 it should be possible .
That is 3 years to sell 65 million consoles which is doable .
Get the price down more and push in emerging markets will also help .
Primethius
Banned
It's like a mental perception on GAF. Which matters very little I would think.
opticalmace
Member
End of 2019 is 4 years.
TheLaughingStock
Member
Some of the exclusives with different ambitions look great. Most of the multiplats suggest ultrabook crap though.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Math mistake lol
But point still stand .
Most multiplats always look like crap .
opticalmace
Member
Yeah, I agree with you.
SMOK3Y
Generous Member
Im thinking 125MWW by launch of PS5
^ Why is that lucky again? 
"Most of multiplats", which ones might those be?
I think a majority of these games actually made me forget how the smaller deficiencies in last gen added up to really show the difference.
"Most of multiplats", which ones might those be?
I think a majority of these games actually made me forget how the smaller deficiencies in last gen added up to really show the difference.
PS4 still has a lot of IPs to see released on it that are proven to sell gangbusters, so I think it'll sell 100 million by PS5 launch pretty easily.
Whether they can reach Andrew House's goal of 150 million though is another debate. They'd have to sell it at $150 or less with hopes of less developed markets giving it legs to sell past the launch of new hardware. PS3 has fallen off a cliff since PS4 launched but I think that's more of a price issue than anything, as CELL has proven to be problematic.
Whether they can reach Andrew House's goal of 150 million though is another debate. They'd have to sell it at $150 or less with hopes of less developed markets giving it legs to sell past the launch of new hardware. PS3 has fallen off a cliff since PS4 launched but I think that's more of a price issue than anything, as CELL has proven to be problematic.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I could potentially see PS4 hit near PS2 levels (130-150M) under the following conditions:
1. Steep price reductions. PS3 never had a chance at this due to how it was designed, but PS4 is a very elegant solution that will likely be extremely cheap to produce in a few years.
2. VR takes off and gives PS4 a very different second half with a completely different audience. This hinges on item #1. It has to be cost effective. If they can bundle the two together for $399 eventually, I think that hits the right pricing target.
Otherwise if they don't get some new re-invigoration from a new audience, then I think they'll settle slightly over 100M with their mainly "core" audience.
1. Steep price reductions. PS3 never had a chance at this due to how it was designed, but PS4 is a very elegant solution that will likely be extremely cheap to produce in a few years.
2. VR takes off and gives PS4 a very different second half with a completely different audience. This hinges on item #1. It has to be cost effective. If they can bundle the two together for $399 eventually, I think that hits the right pricing target.
Otherwise if they don't get some new re-invigoration from a new audience, then I think they'll settle slightly over 100M with their mainly "core" audience.
Bear Force One
Banned
This may sound crazy but I can see it like a Abe's Oddysey, 2D side scroller puzzler.
Anyone else?
I could be wrong but I just dont see the bolded happening this gen. Next gen maybe but not this gen. PS1 level sales for PS4 is possible for sure though.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I am seeing ~100M for PS4 too. PS2 levels are out of the question. I do not think the legs will be there for that.
ultratruman
Banned
Gotta justify that >$1000 rig
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I could see it happening. Kinect managed to give new life to the Xbox 360. And of course there is the Wii, which launched with something new that was quite rough in terms of application, but it didn't matter because it was new and engaging.
VR could be the same thing. Needs the right software and great word of mouth though. Lots of positive impressions from PSX. I think VR is ready this gen, not next.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
I think the PS4 approaching PS2 numbers is a distinct possibility. I have little doubt that we're going to see extremely low prices in the post-gen in an effort to break into developing markets in a real way - the PS2 is still the console of choice among the working class in places like the Middle East and Latin America.
Nightengale
Member
I don't think MS would hype up Recore that much if it was that kind of game.
I think it'll be a full-on 3D game, but not necessarily a large scale AAA kind. Maybe something in the vein of Tomorrow Children/Rime.
Primethius
Banned
I'm guessing it'll end up in the neighborhood of 40 million. I think 60 million is far too high and 50 is a bit optimistic. To hit those numbers, it would need a pretty good boost sometime soon.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
I mean, the PS2 was pretty underpowered too, and that didn't hurt it any. The console market wants bang for your buck, it doesn't want to spend more money on top of the line specs.
I'm inclined to agree. I'm bullish on the PS4 because I think it could have significant legs after the ninth gen starts, but I don't think a second-place console like the Bone can realistically have that kind of afterlife.
VR is something that lives and dies by word and mouth, they need to get people talking about it if they want it to be the next big thing. So I agree they need as many demos as possible, heck they should set them up at arcades and have kids play games like Rigs or the shark demo.
Hope so. Exciting times ahead!
DriftingSpirit
Member
40-50mil with 50mil being an optimistic upper limit.
Not that we will ever really know given the MAU.
James Sawyer Ford
Member
The problem with waiting on VR for next-gen is that console prices creep up again. You're starting with another $399 console + $199+ headset.
Which is why I think mid-gen, VR is ready now as PS4 gets closer to $199 pricing eventually.
The tech is ready, it's just a matter of getting the right software out there, with the right bundled price for the masses.