Well you weren't going to buy it anyways.
I think that's the reality for SF: casuals are not coming regardless of the non-MP features.
I mostly agree, depending on how you define casuals. I'd break the fighting game market down into 4 groups.
1. People who aren't really into the genre but occasionally by something like MK9 or MKX because the story mode, art style, gore etc. drew them in.
That crowd mostly wasn't coming to SF period. The SF franchise art style, characters, story/lore just doesn't have the allure that MK does--at least in the west, and especially the US.
2. Casual fighting game fans who aren't much interested in online play, but like playing story mode, arcade mode, vs. cpu and occasionally playing locally or online with real life friends.
The launch has probably hurt SFV some with that crowd. But it's probably not major. The informed will just wait until the modes they want are out, and Capcom already got a purchase from those who were uninformed. Losing future DLC sales is moslty moot as this crowd generally doesn't stick with a game long term anyway, or play it enough to buy paid DLC.
3. People that play primarily for local and/or online vs. matches, but doesn't care at ton about getting great, entering tournaments etc. A lot of this crowd also likes having Arcade mode etc. to get more practice in, so the launch hurts a tad here--but leas than with group 2 above. This group is more informed, so those that want those modes before buying waited. And a lot are fine buying now and jumping right into the online while waiting for the other modes.
This is the most important group as it's the largest of the four that will stick with the game longer term and buy the most DLC over coming years. Thus they're the real key to the game as service approach.
4. The more hardcore FGC--ranging from those trying seriously to be good online, to those entering local tournaments, to those trying to make it pro, to the best pros. The launch doesn't hurt them at all as they only care about vs. mode and training mode. The only downer is the servers being flakey, but that's unfortunately the norm the first week or two of big online games this gen, and probably made worse by this being a free PS+ weekend.
This group probably won't buy as much DLC as group 3 as they'll play more, and win more, and be able to get most content just from fight money.
So overall, I don't think this launch will hurt the game long term very much. That doesn't excuse lacking basics like Arcade Mode etc., nor change the fact that people who hate these unofficial Early Access type releases are going to hate it. That's just down to the person on what they think of the approach. But long term, I think it will be fine as I don't think many people in groups 3 and 4 are pissed, that plenty in group 2 will just buy the game down the road, or keep playing as content comes out now despite being pissed now. And group 1 is irrelevant for this franchise.
Capcom has really muddled their marketing with all the talk of being more accessible to casuals, talking to much about the cinematic story mode etc. I honeslty wonder if Sony pressured them to put in story mode etc. given the success of MKX.
That's just not SF's strength. The main market is in the west, and these Asian marital arts anime-infused characters and plot just don't have the appeal that MKs ultra violent fantasy setting has to those that want to play a fighting game for story mode.
If they hadn't put development resources into that story mode, maybe they could have released SFV with arcade mode, challenges/trials, survival, vs. CPU etc. just like they did SFIV. And then they wouldn't have drawn ire from many at all in groups 2-4, and could just state that's their focus and that SF isn't about story.