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January 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 7th

W

watdaeff4

Member
MatPiscatella said:
How are some of you saying "sales were bad" or "sales were good" given available information?

How are you even defining "good" and "bad"? And how can the conversation be constructive when everyone's definition of "good" and "bad" will be different as the terms are so qualitative?

And how can anyone default to YoY growth being "bad" without some additional context?



No offense, and I don't mean to call you out personally, but this kind of thing is a bit ridiculous in the 2017 market. Look at ATVI's earnings call yesterday. What do they discuss? Active users. Why? Because engagement is the planning currency of the market now. HW unit sales only matter as a leading indicator of what player engagement might become. A unit of HW no longer has a SW $ value assigned to it, at least not one that any planner will take seriously. Not all users are equal in terms of market opportunity, engagement is a much better correlation metric to potential revs. The engagement information that is now presented in earnings calls and other announcements is far more useful for estimating value.
Click to expand...

To answer your question:

Console warz.


You're welcome and no subscription necessary if you would like more info from me.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Gamesindustry.biz just published an article going in deeper detail on digital data and some of the challenges around it.

You can find the article here.


Kind of difficult to summarize, but if you're curious as to why digital data has been so slow in expanding and improving, this should answer some of those questions.

If you have others I'd be happy to discuss.

watdaeff4 said:
To answer your question:

Console warz.

You're welcome and no subscription necessary if you would like more info from me.
Click to expand...

Thanks! Considering some people are really fond of the warz, and have been doing it so long, why aren't they better at it?
 
D

Darth Smurf X

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Thanks! Considering some people are really fond of the warz, and have been doing it so long, why aren't they better at it?
Click to expand...

WAR---its-fantastic.gif
 
B

blakep267

Member
Kill3r7 said:
My prediction is that it will drop out of the Top 10 for good once RDR 2 hits.
Click to expand...
I do wonder if Red dead catches on the same way as GTA did. Like I'm guessing that for Red dead online they aren't going to let you drive cars or build huge ramps in the sky etc. part of the appeal of GTA online was the dumb stuff. I just wanna see how grounded they make RDR
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
blakep267 said:
I do wonder if Red dead catches on the same way as GTA did. Like I'm guessing that for Red dead online they aren't going to let you drive cars or build huge ramps in the sky etc. part of the appeal of GTA online was the dumb stuff. I just wanna see how grounded they make RDR
Click to expand...

RDR MP is what I am most interested in. Are Rockstar going to create a giant playground? Or are they going to create separate modes to allow for gameplay variety?
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Kill3r7 said:
RDR MP is what I am most interested in.
Click to expand...

Me too. I'm expecting them to take multi-player onto the next step, much like CODMW did, and later Destiny. Really expect them to do things that everyone else will be scrambling to emulate. I generally keep my expectations low, but with Rockstar that goes out the window.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Me too. I'm expecting them to take multi-player onto the next step, much like CODMW did, and later Destiny. Really expect them to do things that everyone else will be scrambling to emulate. I generally keep my expectations low, but with Rockstar that goes out the window.
Click to expand...

Ditto.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Red Dead multiplayer will be interesting as the appeal of GTA Online is the modern setting allowing for stuff like Car stunts, flying the open world in planes, and all the different guests you can do in the world. Trying to do something like that in the old west will be challenging.

Me and my friends would always play the mini games in RDR like Poker. Hope they flesh those out in RDR2.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Going by the advertising thus far I think its safe to say that RDR multiplayer will center around having a crew of gunslingers/outlaws do things together. Am interested to see how they go about doing that design wise.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Is it just me or have I seen zero movement on MS newest bundles (Forza Horizon 3 & Halo Wars 2 bundle) I thought those bundles would at least pop up once in Amazon charts but they are nowhere to be found. PS4 Slim price drop eating their sales?
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
MatPiscatella said:
No offense, and I don't mean to call you out personally, but this kind of thing is a bit ridiculous in the 2017 market. Look at ATVI's earnings call yesterday. What do they discuss? Active users. Why? Because engagement is the planning currency of the market now. HW unit sales only matter as a leading indicator of what player engagement might become. A unit of HW no longer has a SW $ value assigned to it, at least not one that any planner will take seriously. Not all users are equal in terms of market opportunity, engagement is a much better correlation metric to potential revs. The engagement information that is now presented in earnings calls and other announcements is far more useful for estimating value.
Click to expand...

I understand your point but ATVI don't sell hardware .
For MS and Sony it is different .
Yes engagement matter a lot but without hardware sales you don't have actives users at all.
Which is why i think hardware numbers is still the most important factor.
It was only 3 - 2 years ago when people were saying consoles hardware was dead.

Also for MS and Sony more hardware sales also means more possible subs.
Which is a huge amount of money for them along with other factors.
 
B

blakep267

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Is it just me or have I seen zero movement on MS newest bundles (Forza Horizon 3 & Halo Wars 2 bundle) I thought those bundles would at least pop up once in Amazon charts but they are nowhere to be found. PS4 Slim price drop eating their sales?
Click to expand...
The halo wars bundle is 1tb and $349 so it's not going to be as popular as a $299 bundle

And for some reason the 299 forza bundle says it ships within 1-2 months even though it came out yeaterday
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Is it just me or have I seen zero movement on MS newest bundles (Forza Horizon 3 & Halo Wars 2 bundle) I thought those bundles would at least pop up once in Amazon charts but they are nowhere to be found. PS4 Slim price drop eating their sales?
Click to expand...
Competition is cheaper and has way more games coming to it which is a factor. Not very compelling bundles on their front either compared to their holiday bundles.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Should be getting something any minute now.
Probably Venturebeat (Nothing yet from Windows Central?)...

Talking of the devil...

http://venturebeat.com/2017/02/16/january-2017-npd-resident-evil-7-lifts-slumping-hardware-sales/


“Video games software spending increased by 14 percent to $313 million,” NPD analyst Sam Naji said in a statement. “This was due in large part to the stronger comparison this January with the release of Capcom’s Resident Evil 7: Biohazard.”

The horror game was a huge boost to the industry, but it couldn’t stop the systems from dragging down overall spending.

“Total hardware spending in January reached $127 million,” said Naji. “That’s a 19 percent decline versus January 2016.”
Click to expand...
 
J

jbug617

Banned
From Zhuge
Top 10 (via Venture Beat)
C40u1zqXUAELlpN.jpg:small


Top 10 XB1
Resident Evil 7
COD IW
BF1
GTAV
NBA 2K17
Madden 17
Overwatch
Watch Dogs 2
TitanFall 2
Rainbow Six Siege

Top 10 PS4
Resident Evil 7
KH HD 2.8
COD IW
GTA V
BF1
NBA 2K17
Madden 17
Watch Dogs 2
Tales of Berseria
FFXV

 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
If I recall correctly Tales of Zestiria sold 58,000 units although I don't know if that was the total for both PlayStation 3 and 4 versions. I don't know if Tales of Berseria had better luck, but anyway Final Fantasy XV can't be much higher than 50,000 on PlayStation 4 unless Tales over-performed which means that sales collapsed really hard.

Edit: I always forget this is a chart by value and Tales of Berseria was more expensive, so by units Final Fantasy XV could be above, even so the second week drop is massive.
 
C

Chris1

Member
blakep267 said:
I do wonder if Red dead catches on the same way as GTA did. Like I'm guessing that for Red dead online they aren't going to let you drive cars or build huge ramps in the sky etc. part of the appeal of GTA online was the dumb stuff. I just wanna see how grounded they make RDR
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm curious how RDRO will effect GTAO.

I think it's gonna take players away from it, but like you said they're so widely different I could see both thriving.. unless RDRO flops, but I doubt that.

If they fix the loading screens and constant disconnections I get, I'll be on board with RDRO if it's even remotely similar to GTAO. Really liked GTAO but the loading screens made me quit, I just don't have the time to spend 30 minutes trying to get into a heist.
 
K

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Bruno MB said:
If I recall correctly Tales of Zestiria sold 58,000 units although I don't know if that was the total for both PlayStation 3 and 4 versions. I don't know if Tales of Berseria had better luck, but anyway Final Fantasy XV can't be much higher than 50,000 on PlayStation 4 unless Tales over-performed which means that sales collapsed really hard.

Edit: I always forget this is a chart by value and Tales of Berseria was more expensive, so by units Final Fantasy XV could be above, even so the second week drop is massive.
Click to expand...

So much for XV having legs.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Two weeks from release and Horizon is already at #3 on amazon charts ahead of Zelda, going to be a big hit. I can see it doing 600K Plus on NPD. For a new IP that would be outstanding.
 
R

Rob2K19

Member
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