I always said that the problem was their inability to manage people expectation, and the shedule report isn't an answer to that. It still sharing what is the most optimistic estimate possible and go with it, with just a few sentences here and there to temper expectation.
Imho that's a cop-out which clearly doesn't work, jdlshore reddit post about planning schedules and release forecasts ( accompanied with a release forecast ) is pretty much something that should be at the top of the official shedule report.
Little bit of naive thinking and gross underestimations. So lets began with this:
https://waypoint.vice.com/en_us/article/4w33ed/why-its-so-hard-to-make-a-video-game
milestone deadlines approach
Everyone pauses on main development and scurries over to create sketches and mini models of the house to appease the people holding the money. Some of this is guess work—certain features haven't been locked down, art direction could change, etc. The developers might not know exactly how they want the windows to open and where the light switches will be, but they make some creative guesses to get a model out the door because they have to.
Deadlines themselves—whether attached to milestones or internal production schedules—are also determined based on educated guesswork. Artists say it might take them about three weeks to nail the environmental art pieces requested, which would theoretically lineup with a deadline designers suggested would work for submitting the concepts of what those environments would entail. But then, for any number of reasons (including potentially creative pushback from the publisher during a check-in meeting), the designers are delayed and someone will have to crunch to catch everyone else back up to the schedule.
(An that's the perspective of traditional triple A game making, still the exact premise is true, almost everywhere. That making a game is not an exact science. Inherently. But at the time time no one project will be function or make their games in the same exact, ways either)
CIG job is not to manage peoples impossible expectations, when they've already put up guidelines. They've tried that and it still kind of doesn't work. Turns out people will get bent out of shape for anything small or big and that's been proven as fact over the last four years, especially for the loud impatient ones. So yes, the schedule is a very good answer currently. That does indeed bridge the gap between technical and reasonable and it's laid out bare with
caveats and a guideline to help folks understand the process and its pretty darn clear, with what to most likely expect.
In regards to how THEIR development (Not every process is going to be the same. Not at all) works and how estimates and forecast may/will be used. Which don't have guarantees and is not therefore some kind of "cop-out"...regardless of how you may feel about it. It doesn't matter, because that their reality in regards to this project. While it's currently in alpha. The 3.0 patch contains a lot of new/updated work yet untested in a full on live environment.
Plus (as one of the developer said in a post) there are a lot of
interdependencies and at play and all jdlshore post is doing is relaying the most obvious outcome. Based, what has been explained in every update and it's therefore a no brainier that a delay may happen given that context. Plus it's a small sample base and it's a abnormal situation. So the probability margins will be more predictable, depending on. Whats explained in the next update. It's the simplest of deduction skills but it has little barring on game development and the scheduling process itself. Especially under the weight of being ambitions in alpha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOjXfNnhxf0
(Star Citizen: Building a Schedule for a Universe, they made this video for the masses to understand how they try and contain all the shit they are doing and will be doing or should be doing.)
I'm stealing this answer from somewhere on SO. I can't seem to find the original author but the answer stuck with me.
Pointy Haired Manager: how long will this take?
Employee: hard to say, a month? maybe a month and a half?
PHM: We need a better estimate
E: Look, how long does it take you to drive to work?
PHM: Huh? 30 minutes why?
E: 30 minutes plus or minus what?
PHM: +- 5 minutes depending on traffic
E: So you can estimate a task you have done hundreds of times before with a single bounded unknown variable to within 17% and when I estimate how long a task will take that is so complex as to need to hire a [certified-professional/contractor/whatever-qualification-you-have], to do something that's never been done before, that has thousands of unknowns, to better than 20%, you say that's not good enough!?
PMH: Oh...
So what's a top of the official schedule already perfectly explains it to people, the why's and how's and possible when's. That's why agile/scrum development always caveats and utilize estimates. It's just that people don't read that shit nor do they understand the rigmarole of dealing with having to both work and finish new features, new mechanics, new everything and then worry about all the possible positive and negatives. Not just for themselves but for all the backers...it would turn out much, much different if the community wasn't that other mouth to feed. Because the developers wouldn't give a shit about things being in a relatively polished state. Truth be told CIG has done plenty at this point in time to help folks manage it themselves.
While their main job is to make the game and let the chips fall where they may on the other end of the spectrum. Because it's almost all out there for people to understand their world and there are a lot of stories from the industry itself as-well. To avoid double standards.