No home console MH has done much more than a million. And PS4 in particular only has 2 games which have broken 1 million in Japan. So it seems a bit absurd to me to say that's the worst-case scenario for MHW.
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No home console MH has done much more than a million. And PS4 in particular only has 2 games which have broken 1 million in Japan. So it seems a bit absurd to me to say that's the worst-case scenario for MHW.
Neither MHW nor MHXX for Switch will pass MHXX for 3DS. MHW will be more frontloaded, while MHXX for Switch will have some evergreen legs simply by the fact that it offers the popular portable ad-hoc hunting game qualities on a popular system.
So DQ11 on PS4 got a similar first shipment as FF15?
Capcom obviously wants to stop its reliance on domestic sales. They are willing to sacrifice 2-3 million units at home in the hope of gaining 6-7 abroad.
I hope for them that it works out
I would hope that's not their expectation. That's a lot.
No they're not. MHXX is a port of an underperforming 3DS game that came out a few months ago. It was never going to sell gangbusters.
If you think pre-orders for the Switch version are low because of MHW, a PS4 game without local multiplayer or portability then you're being delusional.
They expect to grow the brand, not shrink it, so who knows what maths they use behind it (or if any at all).
The 6-7m abroad won't happen at all a few million at best.
Does that mean much ? We only had one new main MH on consoles ever since the IP got big...and that was MH Tri. Not saying that we should expect much more...but the Wii also wasnt really the system for this type of experiences no matter how hard Nintendo some partners tried.
Dargor
Member
Wasn't those 950k just for 2 days? I think that those 200k wouldn't last very long if they didn't have a second shipment just around the corner.
How long does it take for games to get a restock in Japan?
Nothing too exciting, mostly QOL stuff, and stuff only possible on Switch (bigger chat keyboard for example).
> http://www.4gamer.net/games/381/G038183/20170803003/
That more an argument for not doing the port at all than burying it under a bigger announcement of the same brand before release.
The situation is unprecedented: A brand gets its portable qualities (for which it is consistently popular in Japan) ripped out and redesigned for a static console experience (which they assume make it a better sell in the West) and expect it to do as well or better than two of the most consistently selling big 3rd party series on home console in Japan (DQ and FF).
With the costs of development beeing significantly higher they have to sell a lot more than their typical 4.5-5 million units worldwide to recoup their costs and turn a profit.
I just don't see Capcom expecting a 70% decline in Japan for a 200% increase in the west (with overall sales beeing below the 3DS entries worldwide)
So Capcom has to expect at least 6-7 million units outside of Japan or their gamble will make absolutely no sense.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Sense and capcom don't always go together. P
Around 70k units more shipped.
01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 690.471 / NEW <64,63%> [Units shipped => 1.068.344]
02./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 950.315 / NEW <83,61%> [Units shipped => 1.136.604]
Not even taking into account DLC revenue and reusable assets and features, just how expensive do you think MHW is to develop that they'd need to sell more than 5 million?
I'd like to see some hard data to support your logic there.
While that's true, PS3 only had one million seller (FF13, at 1.9mil, did PS3 really only have one million seller, ouch) If Tri had been released on PS3 I can't really see it selling much more than Tri on Wii.
good because the quoted post doesnt make sense either
Thanks.
Capcom wants to grow the brand, not shrink it. No amount of DLC grows a brand.
Me too, the transition to new assets will occur with or without MHW or PS4, they won't be that "cheap" on Switch either unless Swicth players like to play 3DS upresed games indefinitely at a higher price point.
I see MHW an investment for future games on both platforms. The "growth" from the 3DS sales won't be with only one game unless the game will be heavily monetised.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
There is no hard data nor is there much logic from what I can see. Some people are still a bit mad about this games existence, and it shows in these media create threads. The fact that some people are using MHW as a scapegoat for the possibility of MHXX for Switch underperforming is quite funny.
Significantly more so than the 3DS entries which sell about 4.5 million units worldwide
Or are you seriously expecting Capcom to be happy with sales on par with the 3DS games?
They want to grow the brand worldwide, not shrink it.
Selling anything above whatever Tri/MH4U sold in overseas markets is growing the brand in those markets. They have Switch to cater to the domestic market.
Implying that the existence of MHW and its recent announcement isn't a major reason of the lack of popularity of MHXX is straight up delusional.
People can be skeptical of business decisions of a company without being mad you know. Not everything has to be seen through fanboy bias...
Those kind of posts are getting super grating.
You throw the word mad around with nothing to show for it.
MHW is a gamble. It remains to be seen if it will pay off.
Do you expect that capcom devolps for 3ds until 2020 or something? Growing in the west or not, the asset and engine work would be done with or without it at this point. Also growing something can exceed one game in a series
thats like saying persona 5 is a failed game because atlus dont use ps2 assets and needed to made HD models and engine so the cost is not covered by the sales and only sold 1.8 million
I'm pretty sure you know nothing about Monster Hunter, because XX wasn't received well within the Japanese communities. There's a good reason why MHXX is not being marketed heavily.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Dang this is tense, it'll be interesting
LordRaptor
Member
I agree that unit sales are less important than average revenue per unit, factoring in long tail DLC, but I think its extremely probable that MHWs development costs are at least an order of magnitude higher than MH4s.
I'm pretty sure you shouldn't assume anything about other people. MHXX wasn't going to set charts on fire anyway, because it's a HD version of a re-release of a best-off, but the announcement of MHW definitely impacted even more its popularity. We even had reports about that.
I expect Capcom to nurture their brand by making sound decisions about it.
This is a game that has gained popularity through add-hoc multiplayer gameplay/sessions. In essence, this is what makes Monster Hunter, at least in Japan.
MHW throws it all out of the window. so yes I'm skeptical of the current approach. Great for Capcom if it pans out, otherwise they'll be in trouble.
It definitely is. This is their biggest Monster Hunter project ever, but let's dial down on the crazy here if we're really believing that they'd need 5 million sales to become profitable.
That's some Square-Enix x Tomb Raider levels of crazy
thats cool, does not change the fact that your math with adding some million because of natural increasing dev costs has nothing to with it, showed how riddicoulus that line of thought is in a example
test_account
XP-39C²
That post that he responded to was mocking other people's predicition, is that anything better?
It definitely is. This is their biggest Monster Hunter project ever, but let's dial down on the crazy here if we're really believing that they'd need 5 million sales to become profitable.
That's some Square-Enix x Tomb Raider levels of crazy
You don't grow a brand by selling less unit.
Even if you sell 1 million more units in the west as a result (yeah, growth!)
It definitely is. This is their biggest Monster Hunter project ever, but let's dial down on the crazy here if we're really believing that they'd need 5 million sales to become profitable.
That's some Square-Enix x Tomb Raider levels of crazy
Who talked about just being profitable though? That's obviously not what Capcom wants with this game. By that metric MHXX was a success because it was profitable.
But all of this discussion is because (or clarify to me if i'm mistaken) IF (a big IF) MHW is the only MH that will be release in the future and honestly I think it won't be the case and a portable game in line with the last ones will be release in the future too to cater the ad-hot audience. So where is the problem when you try to have 2 products instead one?
Jawbreaker
Member
As a consumer, I applaud the gamble and encourage them to heavily market the game in the West because it has a lot of potential to catch on. I'm especially convinced it'll do very well on Steam.
This game is exactly what I've been waiting for, and I've seen a lot of excitement from non-fans if I'm allowed to cite anecdotes.
It's not like they're trading away their handheld audience for Monster Hunter World Japan will still see titles on the Switch in the future.
This game is exactly what I've been waiting for, and I've seen a lot of excitement from non-fans if I'm allowed to cite anecdotes.
It's not like they're trading away their handheld audience for Monster Hunter World Japan will still see titles on the Switch in the future.
Capcom wants to grow the brand in the west. They've been talking about taking measures to grow the Monster Hunter brand overseas for a while now. We've been talking about that topic for a while here too. This isn't really news to anyone so I'm not sure why you're confused.
Capcom selling less units overall of MHW is acceptable if they grow the brand in the west considerably which is essentially the entire purpose of the PS4 game. They're obviously not getting 4 million sales in their domestic market and this is something they accepted the moment they started work on this project, but growing the brand in the west means they'd have an IP, brand and franchise that has strong global reach rather than in just one region. This would benefit their future Switch titles as well as allowing them go entirely multiplatform (PS4, Switch, Xbox, PC) for maximum sales potential.
I agree with this. But they need a new portable game too to complement the gamble.
TheLegendaryN
Member
They'll have to merge both their current audience (Japan, now on 3DS) and the new audience (West, PC/PS4/XBO) at some point though. Else, the MHW sales concerns are totally fair. MHW not selling multiple millions of units WW LTD is only justifiable if it's for a higher goal. They'll have to find a way to please both the current hard core and their new audience in the game after MHW and bring that to PC/PS4/XBO and Nintendo (Switch).
I think, at the end of the day, some of you are arguing in circles around one another but seemingly ultimately agree on some level.
The whole thing here started on the basis of the handling of XXNS has been stupid. I am unsure if any one can really disagree (or put forth an actual valid argument against) that MHXX is ill timed and that MHW hurt it considerably. As noted, and of my personal view, XX should have been out months ago and before E3 (and actually had some effort put into it).
They kneecapped their own sales potential.
That doesnt take into consideration a lot of factors like higher entry price point, micro transactions, foreing currencies stronger than the yen...
If MHW adopts GaaS, it can monetize a smaller audience into high profitability... Assuming that a hypothetical MH: Space Exploration Portable doesn't drain the interest in World. I'd sooner actually be concerned about the dichotomy therein unless you (idiotically) do not localize one version in every market.
If you have two like-but-disparate products on very different hardware, you end up competing with yourself.
Skullwaker
Member
Watch Capcom only start localizing console MH games and keep the handheld ones Japan-exclusive once again.
That just seems like something they would do.
That just seems like something they would do.
I think we should calm down a bit for both sides of predictions about MHW
It doesn't need to sell 7 millions in the west alone to be profitable but at the same time it seems some user is implying that sell 2 millions in the west and 1 million in Japan would be seen as a great achievement
And both are wrong imho
It doesn't need to sell 7 millions in the west alone to be profitable but at the same time it seems some user is implying that sell 2 millions in the west and 1 million in Japan would be seen as a great achievement
And both are wrong imho
Of course the brand can grow when they sell more units in the west, even if it sells less overall. There will obviously still be HH (Switch) games. Their strategy is to go multiplatform with the IP, HH will still be the main versions in japan but bringing MH to PS4/XB1/PC is a good way to help broaden the IP in the west. And there is a high chance that this "grow" will happen since I doubt MHW will sell only like 1m on all three platforms combined. A bonus is if PS4 can bring a decent number of people to the IP in japan that doesn't own Nintendo Hardware and make it viable for a PS4 / Switch combo in the future.
I don't recall saying that. I used the word "considerably". It'd need 3 million in overseas markets for it to be considered a great achievement IMO, especially for a first real attempt.