Disagree. In my opinion, PS4 Pro and Xbox One X and its future equivalent ( PS5 Pro/XB2X ) will never be the 'min-spec.' Min-spec cut-offs will be products that are the first of its family of products.
They're called PS4 and Xbox One for a reason, in that they were never meant to be treated as anything outside an extension of their product and their generation. A mid-gen product is still part of its existing generation.
2019: PS5 < - new min-spec.
2020: XB2 <- new min-spec
2022: PS5 Pro <- PS5's mid-gen
2023: XB2 X <- XB2's mid-gen
2025: PS6 <- new min-spec
2026: XB3 <- new min-spec
tldr; nothing will change, there will still be generation-like min-spec separations ( every 5-7 years ), companies now just have an excuse to sell you iterative upgrades every mid-generation that do nothing but play the same games that the min-spec platform does, but prettier.
I can't tell what Microsoft is doing but I do think this is how Sony will go about it. PS5 becomes the new required minimum spec when it comes out. Good chance of BC with PS4 games. But...
I think they should just make it optional. Leave it up to developers to decide to support the old systems or not.
The above will create a degree of market confusion. At a retail level, you have to introduce product boxes that has various labels of "XB2' and 'XB2 X" or "PS5" or "PS5 Pro", and then there will be a variety of SKU mixtures that could leave audiences confused.
Current setup is simple and best.
There are only PS4 and XB1 games. These games play on systems named PS4s and XB1s.
In future, there are also only PS5 and XB2 games. Those games will also only play on systems named PS5s and XB2s.
I think Microsoft WILL do this or something like this, it's just a question of whether it slides the Xbox One X into the min spec position or skip over it in favor of what comes after. Sony might establish PS5 as the minimum spec but give the developers the option to decide for themselves whether to keep supporting PS4 and PS4 Pro for a time, and most would in such a situation, at least for the first 18 months or so after the PS5 launches.
The confusion issue is really just an issue of branding, and it's hardly unsolvable. Microsoft is already dealing with this in the form of retail Xbox 360 games that are playable on Xbox One. It simply has both logos on the new boxes. Nintendo dealt with this with Game Boy Color games. You'd probably just see a logo somewhere on the box with pictures flatly explaining what systems a certain game is compatible with.
Effectively speaking, traditional cross-gen would just be replaced by current gen games that are patched to take advantage of the next-gen systems.
Sony will not hamper their next console by giving forwards-compatability software support to the ps4 or ps4 pro.
Of all the console manufacturers, they've been most clear on that PS5 will be a separate generation for them.
Agree completely.
Tbh, mandatory support for legacy consoles going into next-gen serves no-one. It holds back the new-gen consoles from really shining, and doesn't really offer much more to existing console owners.
As the start of this gen showed quite clearly, cross-gen games are a thing and are necessitated by the size of AAA publishing investments today. So whether Sony/MS mandate PS4/Pro/XB1/XB1X support next-gen or not, those consoles will get all the big AAA games anyway, for as long as those consoles remain relevant in the marketplace (i.e. when gamer retails spending moves over to the new-gen consoles, after they've established a big enough installed base).
In which case, mandating legacy console support only cripples the new-gen consoles in the long-run, offering nothing really of benefit to existing PS4/Pro/XB1/X owners.
Oh there's no way they'll mandate legacy console support, but there's a chance they could allow it. I guess it's a matter of whether you consider it a PS5 game that's playable on PS4, or a PS4 game that's been patched to take advantage of PS5 whenever you play it on one.
I guess the issue this post brings up is revenue. How much revenue would AAA publishers lose from customers who normally double-dip on cross-gen games? Do that many people even do that? I guess a lot of people buy HD remasters but how many are double dippers and how many are people just playing that game for the first time? I guess it's not impossible to charge money for those next-gen patches, but if the architecture is staying the same from PS4 to PS5, is the development of a PS5 version of a cross-gen game really gonna be that different from development of the PS4 version? Might it end up being basically the same code but with some graphics settings turned up and maybe programmed for a different CPU? To me that sounds like a lot less extra work than making separate PS3 and PS4 versions of a game, meaning less expensive cross-gen development.