Indeed, which overall means more burnout too. This can and will affect your business model at some point. Even phones are not immune to it, and a lot of people are predicting a phone burnout period here after the 2018/2019 era. Some people say we are already in it.
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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC
- Thread starter bitbydeath
- Start date
Indeed, which overall means more burnout too. This can and will affect your business model at some point. Even phones are not immune to it, and a lot of people are predicting a phone burnout period here after the 2018/2019 era. Some people say we are already in it.
I'm expecting the next Playatation hardware to be something like 8-9 TF with a Zen CPU and 16gb of GDDR5X.
That would represent a pretty massive upgrade over PS4 Pro (double the GPU power, double the memory and a vastly more powerful CPU) and a very substantial upgrade over Zbox One X - fully 2 TF more GPU power, a monstrously more powerful CPU and 4GB more RAM.
I reckon they could do that and hit $399 - $450 in 2019.
That would represent a pretty massive upgrade over PS4 Pro (double the GPU power, double the memory and a vastly more powerful CPU) and a very substantial upgrade over Zbox One X - fully 2 TF more GPU power, a monstrously more powerful CPU and 4GB more RAM.
I reckon they could do that and hit $399 - $450 in 2019.
Another reason why flops shouldn't be the main way to measure power.
Edit: Vega64 although having the same TF as a Titan XP, doesn't even come close to performing the same.
Gemüsepizza
Member
PS5 won't be just 33% more powerful than a last gen console. Why do people have such low expectations.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Gemüsepizza;247880387 said:
Mainly because Matt has stated that some expectations here (15TF, 32GB RAM etc) should be tempered.
15TF and 32GB RAM are crazy talk so yeah, they should indeed be tempered.
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Me and you are in agreement but quite a few in this thread are not....
No console will ever target a baseline framerate. No matter what happens most developers next gen are probably gonna go for 4K/30. You might see ports of current-gen games running at 4K/60. Mainstream demand for consistent 60fps (or hell, even consistent 30) doesn't really exist.
Even then, at least in the beginning you're probably gonna see a lot of games that are like 1440p or somewhere in-between that and 4K. Developers are gonna make that sacrifice to get appreciable gains in graphics.
rokkerkory
Member
Haha... I would just be happy with 9-10TF and 16GB GDDR6
It was the same with switch, pro and XB1X. People should stop being lead around by unrealistic expectations. On the other hand, people should not be overly pessimistic either.
Nobody should be looking at 'PS5" as another PS4 Pro, they likely serve two completely different markets. When Sony is designing PS5, they are not looking at the jump from pro or in comparison to XB1X, but the jump from PS4 and XB1.
A 10tflop Navi GPU with 16 to 24GB of GDDR6 at 600+GB/s and Zen 2/3 cores at 3+GHZ is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering since Sony still believes in generational cycles. Due to this, they will allow exclusive games to be tailored for that console to take full advantage of it...which is technically what makes all the difference.
Nobody should be looking at 'PS5" as another PS4 Pro, they likely serve two completely different markets. When Sony is designing PS5, they are not looking at the jump from pro or in comparison to XB1X, but the jump from PS4 and XB1.
A 10tflop Navi GPU with 16 to 24GB of GDDR6 at 600+GB/s and Zen 2/3 cores at 3+GHZ is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering since Sony still believes in generational cycles. Due to this, they will allow exclusive games to be tailored for that console to take full advantage of it...which is technically what makes all the difference.
Gemüsepizza
Member
PS4 Pro/XB1X and Switch were different situations. PS4 Pro / XB1X were always limited by their focus on current gen. And Switch was limited by it being a Nintendo console. Next generation for Sony/Microsoft is a completely different beast.
Well there aren't any dev kits out there yet, so to me this just seems like his opinion at this point.
The whole situation reminds me a bit of the PS4 speculation back then, when people were talking about how 2GB GDDR5 RAM would be plenty and stuff like that. People seem to look too much on what is already out there. They see current high end GPUs with 11 GB RAM and think "Why would you need more". But these consoles aren't even out for at least 2 years, and they will need to last until 2025 or so.
Stuff like 2GB GDDR6 modules, for example, will likely be released in spring 2018. If the PS5 has 16 of these modules, like the PS4, this will amount to 32GB RAM. And that's easily imaginable for a console that launches in fall 2019 or later, almost 2 years later. If previous speculation threads have showed us something, it's probably that one should be careful to call something "crazy talk".
Well there aren't any dev kits out there yet, so to me this just seems like his opinion at this point.
The whole situation reminds me a bit of the PS4 speculation back then, when people were talking about how 2GB GDDR5 RAM would be plenty and stuff like that. People seem to look too much on what is already out there. They see current high end GPUs with 11 GB RAM and think "Why would you need more". But these consoles aren't even out for at least 2 years, and they will need to last until 2025 or so.
Stuff like 2GB GDDR6 modules, for example, will likely be released in spring 2018. If the PS5 has 16 of these modules, like the PS4, this will amount to 32GB RAM. And that's easily imaginable for a console that launches in fall 2019 or later, almost 2 years later. If previous speculation threads have showed us something, it's probably that one should be careful to call something "crazy talk".
Candescence
Member
Gemüsepizza;247881992 said:
That's a fairly uncharitable descriptor. The Switch is limited by being a handheld, and it's still an obscenely powerful handheld that can run PS4 games without too many compromises or that much effort, in many cases, though that's considerably easier if you're working with an engine like UE4 or Unity, but still. And that's despite using an off-the-ship mobile chip from 2015, albeit one made by Nvidia. The Switch's successor is likely going to be an absolute beast of a handheld device, if the Tegra Xavier's specs are of any indicator. But that's for another topic.
The exact amount of power in the PS5 is inevitably up in the air, but I'm wondering how that power will be used. Sony and MS have been pushing 4K hard as of late, and I sincerely doubt they'd want devs to go back to 1080p as the standard. But 4K is also incredibly intensive in terms of rendering requirements, and would greatly reduce the capacity devs would have to improve graphics in other ways, making the power gains on paper look much less impressive in practice aside from nicer but not that impressive image quality improvements. And mandating roughly 4K rendering would give Nintendo and Nvidia an opportunity to release a PS4+ level system that could potentially play the same games but in 720p/1080p and with relatively worse graphics (but not massively compromised) on the go. But not mandating/heavily encouraging 4K rendering would severely undermine Sony's 4K push, mainly because devs prefer to cut back on resolution in favor of shinier bells and whistles most of the time, and I doubt there won't be devs who'll by happy to sacrifice 4K support because 1080p is "good enough". It's a nasty catch-22.
Laplasakos
Member
If PS5 is coming out 2019, when should we start hearing rumors about it? I remember reading some details about PS4 dev kits a year before launch. I guess summer 2018 at the earliest?
Just_myles
Member
I know. That had me at a loss.
I don't see Microsoft having that much more power if they're releasing at the same time as PS5. If they're waiting a year then they're already dead.
Ascenion
Member
I don't see either of them dropping before 2021. The Pro and X should extend the generation by a good 4-5 years. Plus those are just the ranges I had in mind to demonstrate differences. It could easily be 8.5TF PS5 vs a 9.2 Xbox 4. I'm just thinking 12 is the absolute maximum.
There will be no "next gen" imo. Microsoft and Sony will release an updated console and drop the xbox one and ps4 as the min spec. Consoles will go the PC route. Min Spec and Recommended Spec Hardware.Gemüsepizza;247881992 said:
4-5 years from now:
Xbox One / PS4 - Drop Support, or if games scale really well, maybe they will support it longer.
Xbox One X / PS4 Pro - Min Spec
New Xbox / New PS - Recommended Spec
4-5 years after that:
Xbox One X / PS4 Pro - Drop Support
New Xbox and PS - Min Spec
Even Newer Xbox and PS - Recommended Spec
The question is how long hardware will be supported with the newest games, will they keep xbox one and Ps4 around after the new updated consoles are released? idk. Anyway, i don't see them moving to a new generation so to speak , i think they will incrementally update their hardware platform like the pc.
well they may call it next gen but i have my doubts that they would drop new game support for the PS4 Pro so soon. We'll see.
How do you quantify a difference between a 'PS5" and "PS4 Pro+" hardware wise?
By default no matter what happens, hardware gains are slowing down in all areas due to the limitations of silicon. i think based on that new reality, what we get will most certainly qualify for a PS5 moniker compared to base PS4. The jump between Xbox 1 to XB1X almost qualifies for a whole new gen jump in of itself if not for the CPU.
Why does it have to be either or? I see traditional crossgen going away and being replaced by devs working on PS4/pro games, being patched to take advantage of the pS5 hardware(via BC) so devs can use both PS4/Pro's userbase and the new PS5 userbase, with sony allowing for exclusive games to be made as well. Devs can continue on like that until the PS5 userbase gets big enough to sustain itself. Make sense?
An 5x raw power increase from X1 to X1X would be the smallest leap ever for a next gen entry then.
A true next gen successor for ps4/x1 would start at 10TFlops and that would still be a small leap compared to previous gens.
It's called a 'mid gen refresh' for a reason, and the CPUs for both are severly hampering the system, whether on Pro or X.
2019 is the plan imo, possibly 2020 if there is a delay in expected techs to be provided in mass amounts.
Pro won't be the upgrade baseline, the vanilla PS4 will.
I think most people will be happy with a jump from 1.8 to ~12TF, Ryzen CPU (which by far & away will be the biggest differential in observable performance uplifts) and double/triple RAM capacity plus whatever other bells & whistles Sony add in (e.g. maybe a Vega with some Navi tech onboard).
Also worth remembering that a $499 console using the same finance model of unit+game/PSN sub gives an effective price ceiling of $550.
It will be interesting to see how Sony develops the OS ecosystem into next generation. Earlier in the thread Matt alluded to there being less emphasis on sales velocity out of the gate, so maybe you'll see Base discontinued, Pro as the legacy system available at the same time, and PS5 with PS4 BC.
wumster3000
Member
Why I stopped responding. It's crazy to think that a 15tf 32GB machine is coming within the next two years and be affordable. 8 to 10 tf I can see. 15 tf is pushing it. If they can do this and be affordable, they will be taking a massive loss.
At this point, I don't think you really do at all, not in the same way you differentiate between PS3 and PS4. There's no fundamental architecture refresh anymore. I guess if the CPU is too different for there to be any cross-compatibility, or if Sony decides to re-do the OS and development environment again, that could in theory create just enough of a difference. But I think at the very least what we're looking at is like the difference between GameCube and Wii, just with a more drastic difference in power. Like, 10 PS4s duck taped together (I'm just tossing out that number, I don't remember what people are speculating exactly)
This is what I've always hoped would happen -- that the PS5 is sort of just a more drastic Pro upgrade, Sony drops the requirement to support the original PS4, but most developers keep supporting it anyway for like the first 18 months of the PS5's life.
Shin
Banned
Don't know about that, Vega 64 is already at 12.6? three years from now 15 would be mainstream I'd say.
Next year alone GPU's will be in the 15+ not to mention Vega sports 8GB HBM2 (good for $160 of the BOM).
Since the push will be for native 4K I'd expect them to invest more in the GPU/CPU and less in the amount of memory, 16GB should be suffice.
hanspampel
Banned
Vega64 is consuming more power than an Xbox One X and Ps4 Pro combined...
If it retains legacy hardware design for backwards compatibility at the opportunity cost of newer, efficient architecture.
Shin
Banned
That's where Navi comes in, I think AMD will fix the power consumption with that...hopefully.
There's also the Vega Nano which is 150w (same as RX480 but 9.2TF?).
The GPU is not the only part draining power. More powerful CPU will also have quite a budget, same goes to ram.
Shin
Banned
CPU should remain the same 25W, RAM will go up from 12W (8GB) --> 21.6W (16GB), that shouldn't break the bank.
We've been running in circles for a while now, hopefully something new pops up soon to discuss.
BradleyLove
Member
Funny how Matt got utterly shit on in 1X threads for tempering expectations. Yet here, it's all civil. Interesting.
It's not a coincidence, it's because people who prefer Sony are just better humans. That is known.
farmerboy
Member
McHuj
Member
Are you trying to derail this thread?
TLZ
Banned
For 2019, and a next gen machine, I expect 16tf, no less.
Negotiator
Member
Pro is still tied to the CPU and RAM limitations of the OG PS4 so PS5 will be a generational leap over both models, easily.
No not easily. Sure there will be a nice leap with CPU performance and the amount of RAM. However we won't be seeing as huge of a leap in the GPU and that's what I meant.
Negotiator
Member
I wonder if this could be useful for next-gen gaming: http://wccftech.com/amds-navi-7nm-gpus-feature-ai-acceleration-hardware/
It might be:
https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/04/neural-networks-can-help-animate-video-games/
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017...aking-for-more-lifelike-video-game-animation/
https://www.quora.com/Are-there-any-video-games-that-use-neural-networks-for-their-AI
https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/01/t...ke-animations-in-games-a-little-less-awkward/
http://aigamedev.com/open/article/useful-neural-networks/
http://gizmodo.com/how-artificial-intelligence-could-prevent-the-next-mass-1794884837
It might be:
https://www.engadget.com/2017/05/04/neural-networks-can-help-animate-video-games/
https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017...aking-for-more-lifelike-video-game-animation/
https://www.quora.com/Are-there-any-video-games-that-use-neural-networks-for-their-AI
https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/01/t...ke-animations-in-games-a-little-less-awkward/
http://aigamedev.com/open/article/useful-neural-networks/
http://gizmodo.com/how-artificial-intelligence-could-prevent-the-next-mass-1794884837
The numbers may not seem massive on paper but going from 1080p, 1440p or 1800p upscaled to native 2160p for virtually every game will be massive.
And then there's HDMI 2.1's VRR feature and HDR10+, PS5 will make the Pro look like last gen tech. I have no doubt about that.
PS4 & PS4 Pro are both in the same generation so if it's a generational leap over PS4 it's a generational leap over pro.