Just finding out about this. Calling it right now, this game is NOT coming before 2026. I suspect they had no actual playable foundation for the game when they showed the trailer at TGS in 2020, and probably only started shortly afterwards building out (that) version of the game. Which according to this report, was going painfully slow, so 9 months passing (before they got Crystal Dynamics involved) wasn't actually 9 months worth of normal progress.
The typical AAA game (which IIRC is what this still is, right?) takes 5 years to make; at best they probably have about four months of legitimate progress on the game, so if they need about 5 years then, assuming no more issues pop up, it MIGHT be ready by Summer 2026. Just think about that: a game with a CGI trailer in December 2020, actual release probably in November 2026 (because we know Microsoft tend to not release games in the summer), from a studio initially established in 2018!!
That is actually ridiculous, but that's not even the most pressing thing. I thought The Initiative were going to be allowed to be creatively free? I thought that was the philosophy as a whole for XGS, right? So why did they lose half their talent in just a year when the game is obviously still in very early stages? Yeah, because of them having little creative control and freedom. Preach one thing publicly, do something else privately huh?
This game was simply shown way too soon, just like Everwild, and now that casts doubt on pretty much EVERY other announced XGS game in terms of how far along are they really. How well is their development going behind the scenes really. Because if we already have not one but two XGS games in a state of deep developer turmoil (despite what any studio head is going to say; of course they won't be truthful about the state of things if any of that includes more bad news or backs up the bad news already reported!), who's to say Hellblade II is actually on track for 2023 (remember when insiders were saying it could be 2022? Good times!)? Avowed for 2023? Well, maybe, but we only have Jez's word and they could've seen anything, in any state, and still say what they said. We're supposed to assume the next Forza Motorsport is this year but is it really? Where's any official word on that, or anything to reveal for it suggesting it will in fact be coming this year? Was Fable also only in extremely early phase with its 2020 CGI trailer? Is that further out than 2023 or even 2024? Who knows!!
It's kind of time to really start asking the hard questions. Is Matt Booty failing XGS? Does he need to be replaced? Because this, Everwild, Halo Infinite...it all falls under his watch. He's a Minecraft guy, maybe he is better off running Mojang. These shouldn't be controversial questions; I wouldn't have to ask them if there wasn't a trend of evidence forming to make them worth asking in the first place! Let me be clear: this is solely about the XGS teams, not the Zenimax ones, and not the ABK ones that'll be coming next year.
That said, I can definitely understand the trepidation people have in Microsoft acquiring studios, when you look at the current picture. How can Bethesda be guaranteed higher polish, and bigger success on a larger network of platforms (not Sony or Nintendo), when Halo Infinite has failed to bring polish with its content and despite being available on more platforms than ever, has miserable peak concurrent players of 10K - 12K on Steam, while dropping fast on Xbox? How is Todd going to have that assured backing to revitalize classic IP like Fallout and Elder Scrolls to their glory days when Microsoft couldn't even manage that for their marquee IP that's the face of the brand, in Halo Infinite? How are ABK's workplace culture for their teams going to be changed for the better (in terms of creative production and flow; it'll obviously get better in terms of getting rid of the harassment issues and employees) when they see things like Everwild stuck in a perpetual reboot cycle and The Initiative facing a 50% turnover rate in a single year before first gameplay has even been shown? What confidence is that supposed to inspire to ABK developers who are already considering jumping ship before the acquisition because of the BS they still have to put up with right now over there on the harassment front, let alone possibly then coming under the wing of a publisher with home-grown studios and prior acquisitions struggling to retain a stable production pipeline?
This stuff isn't in a vacuum and I can promise a lot of other people are thinking these same things, in one way or another. Honestly feels like Microsoft were scrambling at the last possible moment (2018) to prepare for this new generation, I mean they were going to shut the division down potentially some point before then, right? So obviously R&D on hardware & software investments would've been massively reduced if not frozen. But you need more than two years to prepare for a new generation these days, and it's looking kind of more obvious they needed more time specifically. I mean, why are we getting new big 1P content from Bethesda, who they only announced to acquire in 2020 (and completed in 2021) on Xbox in the form of Starfield, before we get Obsidian or Compulsion or Ninja Theory's next big game, when those studios were acquired two years before Bethesda? Why is their 2022 looking like it's going to be relying on output from an acquisition made late in 2020, and yet another expected Forza Motorsport entry? What is going on?
And yes if you can't tell I'm frustrated and I made this more about XGS as a whole and even Microsoft's strategy when it comes to some things because I thought they would finally have had a real handle on this stuff after all the issues with teams & games during the XBO generation. But they clearly don't, they still clearly have some of the same issues and now that could be magnified because of the sheer number of teams they have now and who's to say Phil Spencer is going to do that much better managing over the three divisions than Matt Booty has been doing managing over the XGS teams? I mean let's be honest Phil Spencer doesn't have a spotless track record when it comes to his tenure running XGS either, and that was during the XBO generation before his promotion. He's done some good stuff but he could've done more, but how are we to expect he'll do more with a much larger plate than he was able to with a much smaller one, in terms of competency and getting everything to gel together?
We're once again in a situation where Microsoft has to prove itself in the one way that'll shut up all the growing doubt, and very soon: show US where these games are really at, at least some of them, and do it soon. Like the saying goes, "let the games do the talking".
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