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September 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 13th

While I don't doubt that MCC and maybe even Halo 4 had some impact had on the brand, once the ads start and we're about a couple of weeks out from 5 and the hype sets in, I'm sure most of that impact will be forgotten.

I think for those reasons, stuff like MCC and Halo 4 will more likely impact how much of the player base Halo 5 retains rather then how much it sells up front and consequently how many consoles it helps sell (which will be quite a bit).
 

Boke1879

Member
Halo was unmatched as console FPS once. this has changed. It's still good, but not the champion any more.
Also, Halo is much tamer than the others. And for a good part of the FPS-crowd, gore is a selling point.

Personally. I think the issue is when you had Halo Reach and H4. They kinda tried to imitate the modern shooters and that rubbed people the wrong way.



I check amazon periodically because I'm trying to see if the Rey Star Wars Black series figure will ever fucking be restocked. I also take this time to check the amazon hourly charts.


And holy hell why has the PS4 version of Fallout 4 jumped to number 15?

Yes I know hourly has no bearing on sales. Still impressive to see imo
 

RexNovis

Banned
Yes I know hourly has no bearing on sales. Still impressive to see imo

Hourly charts on Amazon are completely unreliable and therefore meaningless as an indication of market trends. If you are going to cite Amazon as an indication of market trends stick to the monthly summations. Hourly charts have no place in a factual sales discussion. DO NOT CITE THEM
(or any other similarly unreliable web metric like gamestop, walmart, or target).
If you want proof look at my damn tag. My error was mostly thanks to putting too much weight on the game's lack of success in hourly charts.

I'm getting really sick of seeing people have to explain this on a monthly basis. Perhaps we need to add a disclaimer in the OP or something.
 

Jigorath

Banned
While I don't doubt that MCC and maybe even Halo 4 had some impact had on the brand, once the ads start and we're about a couple of weeks out from 5 and the hype sets in, I'm sure most of that impact will be forgotten.

I think for those reasons, stuff like MCC and Halo 4 will more likely impact how much of the player base Halo 5 retains rather then how much it sells up front and consequently how many consoles it helps sell (which will be quite a bit).

Basically. Halo 5 is going to be huge.
 

Boke1879

Member
Hourly charts on Amazon are completely unreliable and therefore meaningless as an indication of market trends. If you are going to cite Amazon as an indication of market trends stick to the monthly summations. Hourly charts have no place in a factual sales discussion. DO NOT CITE THEM
(or any other similarly unreliable web metric like gamestop, walmart, or target).
If you want proof look at my damn tag. My error was mostly thanks to putting too much weight on the game's lack of success in hourly charts.

I'm getting really sick of seeing people have to explain this on a monthly basis. Perhaps we need to add a disclaimer in the OP or something.

I literally said I know hourly rankings have no bearing on sales.

I still think it's a nice a game coming out in just a little over a month from now charting so high. Even if it is hourly.
 

Blanquito

Member
Speaking of amazon, I noticed recently that the spec page for the ps4 now lists the Jaguar cores as "low power". It used to be something different, didn't it?
Insert "LOL CONSOLES" quip here...

FWIW, Amazon is listing Oct monthly sales already, too.
PS4 has two SKUs above XB1
But it's pretty early in the month so don't look into it.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Speaking of amazon, I noticed recently that the spec page for the ps4 now lists the Jaguar cores as "low power". It used to be something different, didn't it?
Insert "LOL CONSOLES" quip here...

FWIW, Amazon is listing Oct monthly sales already, too.
PS4 has two SKUs above XB1
But it's pretty early in the month so don't look into it.

Low power has always been what the jaguar cores have been described as. Because they are relatively low clocked and output low voltage. It has nothing to do with the actual speed of the components in terms of gaming.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
[3DS] 45k
[PS4] 520k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 300k
 
Speaking of amazon, I noticed recently that the spec page for the ps4 now lists the Jaguar cores as "low power". It used to be something different, didn't it?
Insert "LOL CONSOLES" quip here...

This really is poorly worded. If I was in charge, I would slap the marketing guy responsible for this on the back head. Twice.
"Power-saving" or something would be much better.

Or learn from the gods of marketing from Volkswagen and call it BlueTec or something.
 

Cornbread78

Member
Man, this is a tough month. Too clase to call right now, so I have to think about this one.

My not so bold prediction is that MS wins Oct. I mean, they are killing it at my store right now with Layaway's. like 3:1/4:1 over PS4. Granted it's a small sample size, but it's been very 1 sided as the holiday shopping begins...
 

Stanng243

Member
Man, this is a tough month. Too clase to call right now, so I have to think about this one.

My not so bold prediction is that MS wins Oct. I mean, they are killing it at my store right now with Layaway's. like 3:1/4:1 over PS4. Granted it's a small sample size, but it's been very 1 sided as the holiday shopping begins...

You mean October is a close call? This thread is for September, which is fairly obvious who won. I do agree, October will be interesting
 

Cornbread78

Member
You mean October is a close call? This thread is for September, which is fairly obvious who won. I do agree, October will be interesting

We'll see how the numbers play out as Oct., rolls on and if Sony does announce a price drop and how that affects sales.
 

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
Man, this is a tough month. Too clase to call right now, so I have to think about this one.

My not so bold prediction is that MS wins Oct. I mean, they are killing it at my store right now with Layaway's. like 3:1/4:1 over PS4. Granted it's a small sample size, but it's been very 1 sided as the holiday shopping begins...

Layaways? Isn't that what poor people did to buy stuff they could not afford back in the 80s? This is still a thing?
 
This is a hard one.

People are expecting 100k-200k gaps which is possible. However withthe delas still going on it may be less than that.

All recent Npd saves 1, had the PS4 and Xbox One very very close together, and I see nothing to change that. It will get past the 30k due to MGSV alone of course, but at the same time I don't see it pushing that much more.

I still think not bringing the MGSV bundle was a mistake.

The only people that know who 343i/Bungie are are Internet nerds, the average person doesn't know nor care about this stuff.

A better argument would be the decline in Sales in Halo 4 & the hardcore drop in MP population after launch, I'd wager that Call of Duty was the culprit, and not some Internet studios war.


Destiny has just had mucho advertising 2 years in a row, i think a lot of people noticed the "Bungie" in fact that was all over the media last year as well that Bungie was now "multiplat"
 
Man, this is a tough month. Too clase to call right now, so I have to think about this one.

My not so bold prediction is that MS wins Oct. I mean, they are killing it at my store right now with Layaway's. like 3:1/4:1 over PS4. Granted it's a small sample size, but it's been very 1 sided as the holiday shopping begins...

What store are you with?
 
[3DS] 190K
[PS4] 29900K
[WIU] 66K
[XB1] 3K

Typical placeholder

It would be glorious if you forgot to update your list and went with this one.

Question for everyone else:
I know I've asked this before, but I have forgotten the answer... so here it is again. With bundles, do the games packed in count towards their NPD score? So, would Destiny get a bump in September due to bundle sales or is it only the single copies?
 

Welfare

Member
It would be glorious if you forgot to update your list and went with this one.

Question for everyone else:
I know I've asked this before, but I have forgotten the answer... so here it is again. With bundles, do the games packed in count towards their NPD score? So, would Destiny get a bump in September due to bundle sales or is it only the single copies?

No, the top 10 chart does not include bundled copies.
 
So where do you expect Destiny TTK in software charts?
Some say it was heavy on downloads, plus there is a bundle (and we learned that does not count in software sales).
Overall, who will have the number 1 spot?
MGSV, TTK or some other title?

Happy Home Designer
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Fuck me, meant that. I swear I typed "not".

Don't worry. I did the same thing in a Nintendo thread where I said they wouldn't enter the Asian market even though I meant to say they would haha.

For clarification purposes-

The rankings that NPD release include standard software sales, CE, GOTY editions, software bundles etc... BUT not games sold with hardware (Hardware bundles)
Of course digital sales are not tracked.
 
With bundles, do the games packed in count towards their NPD score? So, would Destiny get a bump in September due to bundle sales or is it only the single copies?

Love the idea of an NPD Score. You reading this, NPD? You guys are missing an opportunity.

For more context, the most important number for NPD is total consumer spend. With a pack in game, the value of that game being sold is included in the HW consumer spend for that particular unit. So, the value of the game is technically counted, but just not for that particular game.

Now, you could say that they should at least include the units with the software. Only problem with that is it would then screw up the average selling price calculations of the software, which doesn't really make things better.

It's a soft spot in the system for sure. No easy way to solve for it.

You mean October is a close call? This thread is for September, which is fairly obvious who won. I do agree, October will be interesting

Hardly. According to that Havok thread, Microsoft will now be pumping its chest out about their exclusive middleware solutions and pulling the license away from Sony. So, what games will Sony be able to sell in October? Not many. They all use that middleware that's going to be an MS exclusive. October and the future belong to Xbox One. Thought you guys in here would be smart enough to see that the purchase of Havok means its game over for Sony.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
It's a soft spot in the system for sure. No easy way to solve for it.

They should release Hardware SKU rankings.


Hardly. According to that Havok thread, Microsoft will now be pumping its chest out about their exclusive middleware solutions and pulling the license away from Sony. So, what games will Sony be able to sell in October? Not many. They all use that middleware that's going to be an MS exclusive. October and the future belong to Xbox One. Thought you guys in here would be smart enough to see that the purchase of Havok means its game over for Sony.

You forget about those Koei heavy hitters?
 
So where do you expect Destiny TTK in software charts?
Some say it was heavy on downloads, plus there is a bundle (and we learned that does not count in software sales).
Overall, who will have the number 1 spot?
MGSV, TTK or some other title?

Happy Home Designer

Four SKUs and an extremely popular game, but the physical version is only a deal for people who never played Destiny, or who only played and stopped Vanilla. If you bought even one DLC then the digital version is the cheaper option (leading to Taken King's PSN record breaking launch). If Europe or Japan is any indication the digital will greatly over shadow the physical version. The one possible thing the US version may have over the others is Gamestop offering 20USD trade ins on Vanilla physical for the Taken King physical (which is just a vanilla disc with DLC codes). Amazon seems to indicate it performing above Fifa, but below Madden and Metal Gear V. Top three would be those, in my opinion.

Edit: Also there is the issue of bundles. A good 300K+ of Taken King sales will not be counted, as they are in the PS4 Bundles. I think those will make them number two and close to one, but without them, number three of four.
 

crazyprac

Member
I think that price drop for ps4 is eminent. Just checked CAG and there's a listing for destiny bundle with a 50$ amazon gift card. Microsoft is pushing consoles with a 40" Insignia TV too... About to be some great deals for the holidays. Holding out on buying new games.
 

Welfare

Member
I think that price drop for ps4 is eminent. Just checked CAG and there's a listing for destiny bundle with a 50$ amazon gift card. Microsoft is pushing consoles with a 40" Insignia TV too... About to be some great deals for the holidays. Holding out on buying new games.

Where? That's new thread worthy if there already isn't one.
 

crazyprac

Member
Where? That's new thread worthy if there already isn't one.

I'm out and too lazy to make a thread but check cheapassgamers. Front page under popular deals. Xbox one is a bit lower. This is mobile btw so the layout might differ.

Looking at the Xbox deal you need an edu address.
 
Damn, if Sony cut The Price in October, next is gonna be one of The most legendary NPD ever!

Um I don't know. PS4 sells no matter it is 399 or 349, but Halo sure does sell a fuck ton of Xboxes, in the long run a price cut should benefit PS4 but for October alone I can't see it outweighs the giant that is Halo.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
I don't know. I still think a small $50 price cut won't do jackshit against Halo this month.

Um I don't know. PS4 sells no matter it is 399 or 349, but Halo sure does sell a fuck ton of Xboxes, in the long run a price cut should benefit PS4 but for October alone I can't see it outweighs the giant that is Halo.

Wanna be honest, even for me 50$ Pricedrop is not gonna to be massive, and i still think XB1 should win.

But like Sangetsu Said...

This month will be interesting™

Haha.
 
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