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Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

NPD recently released their report on the video games industry at US retail for September 2015. NPD noted that the PlayStation 4 remained the best selling console of the month and number one in software sales. The PlayStation 4 continues to be the cumulative sales leader in the USA with an estimated 9.0 million units sold through to end users.

You can click the link for his full analysis of September's NPD.
https://zhugeex.com/2015/10/septemb...ystation-4-hits-nine-million-units-in-the-us/

One very interesting bit that I found was this:

As mentioned above, the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are still tracking higher than the Xbox 360 and PS3. This can be seen in the chart above which compares the first 36 months of sales for each system. (Note: PS4 and XB1 only have 23 months of tracked sales so far). Sales of next generation consoles have been fairly healthy but it is important to keep in mind that at one point last year the PS4 and XB1 were ahead by over 80% where as now the combined lead versus their predecessors is only 40%. Whilst both consoles started off much better than their predecessors I am inclined to agree that they will eventually fall behind at some point in the future and I also believe that this generation will have a total install base that is smaller compared to last gen. That being said I do expect the PS4 and XB1 to have a great holiday season.

Oh and here's a chart.

edit: Removed comment that was too much for GAF to handle.

5taquitos · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
This is not what I expected. The future is looking dim.

Really? They're still leading last gen by a good margin, of course that's going to drop off.

BigBadShamoo · Oct 20, 2015

Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

Quonny · Oct 20, 2015

Future looks dim because some people say it won't have the install base of the previous generation, which had over 200 million in US/EU?

Hmm.

Gaming is truly dead.

AmethystEnd · Oct 20, 2015

Sapphire Dreams · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
This is not what I expected. The future is looking dim.

I don't see that with the figures you provided...

On Demand · Oct 20, 2015

5taquitos said:
Really? They're still leading last gen by a good margin, of course that's going to drop off.

As soon there's a period when sales are down, everybody likes to think the market is in danger. I don't understand it.

Cripshay · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
This is not what I expected. The future is looking dim.

lmao.... yeah, riiiight.

Pif · Oct 20, 2015

Wii versus ps4 graph for Pif seal of approval, please.

Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

5taquitos said:
Really? They're still leading last gen by a good margin, of course that's going to drop off.

With the Wii out of the picture and people more willing to drop $500 on plastic electronics at the drop of a hat than they were 10 years ago, I actually expected the install base to be higher this gen. :<

Game4life · Oct 20, 2015

OP no offence but I have noticed you have the tendency to over react for the smallest things. How is the future grim exactly?

NateDrake · Oct 20, 2015

No one is saying the market is doomed but it is clear that is has shrunk by a considerable margin and likely won't match the performance of the PS360 generation.

Lady Siara · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

But they addressed that issue with the Xbox One. I think they may have even overcompensated due to the large size.

shandy706 · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

LOL

Bunch of "fools" on Gaf.

Great post!

OT, nothing dim about the future.

Game4life · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

Not sure if serious....

Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

Game4life said:
OP no offence but I have noticed you have the tendency to over react for the smallest things. How is the future grim exactly?

I'm not saying it's the end of the world. I'm just disappointed. I guess I should edit the OP if this thread will end up being about that small comment.

5taquitos · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
With the Wii out of the picture and people more willing to drop $500 on plastic electronics at the drop of a hat than they were 10 years ago, I actually expected the install base to be higher this gen. :<

But that's the thing, it is higher when looked at over the lifespan. So where's the doom and gloom?

DR2K · Oct 20, 2015

Prices stagnated hence the reduction in growth over time. Prices drop and growth increases.

partyphone · Oct 20, 2015

and they'll both get good bumps when they come out with their respective revisions.

I'd be way more interested in an xbone if it was 2/3s the size and cheaper.

Quonny · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
With the Wii out of the picture and people more willing to drop $500 on plastic electronics at the drop of a hat than they were 10 years ago, I actually expected the install base to be higher this gen. :<

Wait, you expect the install base to be higher this generation because the Wii is out of the picture? The Wii is included in previous generation's figures.

MikeE21286 · Oct 20, 2015

The second quote just confirms for me the hypothesis (at least so far...) that this gen is extremely front loaded. I share this thought and so do many others.

In aggregate ps4 and xb1 may be ahead of the predecessor (launch months aligned) but I'd be interested to see PS3/360 month 23 (for example) compared to ps4/xb1 month 23

Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

Quonny said:
Wait, you expect the install base to be higher this generation because the Wii is out of the picture? The Wii is included in previous generation's figures.

It says "their predecessors". I assume that means PS3 + 360. If the Wii is included in that, then things are looking good.

NateDrake · Oct 20, 2015

5taquitos said:
But that's the thing, it is higher when looked at over the lifespan. So where's the doom and gloom?

How is higher? Last-gen sold more than 270 million units of home console hardware. This gen will not achieve that figure.

FloorEssence · Oct 20, 2015

Pretty sure the hardcore game market is bigger than ever. PC is enormous compared to last gen. Extremely casual people have gone from wii to phones/tablets.

Madness · Oct 20, 2015

Lady Siara said:
But they addressed that issue with the Xbox One. I think they may have even overcompensated due to the large size.

They addressed the issue pretty much by mid 2007 when the Elite console was announced and all revisions of the launch models had the newer chipsets. The Elite could still red ring but it was statistically insignificant compared to the launch console versions and by 2009, they released the slim which pretty much effectively ended the problems.

Besides, that's one of the reasons they didn't take a chance with the design of the Xbox One, it runs much cooler, quieter and kept the external power brick in case something fails. It's built like a tank to avoid any issues.

dragonyeuw · Oct 20, 2015

Wasn't there supply issues at launch last gen, especially with 360? I seem to recall some huge markups on ebay for several months post launch. Both systems were far more accessible this time around. I'm also thinking that the market for people willing to drop $400 is drying up, so things will pick up again with the price drops. A standard $299 pricetag is going to get the next wave of people willing to buy in at that price.

Jigorath · Oct 20, 2015

The console industry as whole is in decline gen on gen.

That said, PS4 continues to sell great. This generation has at least one success story.

J@hranimo · Oct 20, 2015

Good on them! Wish I could afford all three this gen...but one day I'll get them all.

I await the rest of you taking the bait though. Have fun XboxGAF and SonyGAF! :]

The12thGripper · Oct 20, 2015

> PS4 and Xbox One continues to sell more units than their predecessors did during the same time period.

"The future is looking dim.

"

ClearData · Oct 20, 2015

I was like "Oh, a ZhugeEx thread." lol.

Anyways, I hope all consoles sell well this holiday. It's hard to cut through the fanboy noise but truth is if we want our hobby to grow Xbox, Playstation, and Nintendo need to do well.

KiefbladeMaster · Oct 20, 2015

NateDrake said:
How is higher? Last-gen sold more than 270 million units of home console hardware. This gen will not achieve that figure.

Neither is this generation likely to run a decade like the previous one. And as others have pointed it, it's sold more than the previous console did in the same time-frame.

Game4life · Oct 20, 2015

NateDrake said:
How is higher? Last-gen sold more than 270 million units of home console hardware. This gen will not achieve that figure.

That is because of the Wii. The core market is still responding favorably to these consoles. The PS4 just got its first price drop nearly 2 years later. I think PS4 and Xbox one combined will still come close to their last gen counterparts total.

bananafactory · Oct 20, 2015

Explanation :

People were desperate for new hardware so all the early adopters created an unsustainable sell through rate

Now that initial demand has waned we are seeing more realistic numbers

Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

The12thGripper said:
> PS4 and Xbox One continues to sell more units than their predecessors did during the same time period.

"The future is looking dim. "

Read the OP, the lead that the PS4+XB1 have over the PS3+360 is decreasing. I'm now expecting that lead to disappear.

bananafactory said:
Explanation :

People were desperate for new hardware so all the early adopters created an unsustainable sell through rate

Now that initial demand has waned we are seeing more realistic numbers

Yeah, I was afraid of this but I think this is it.

Obliterator · Oct 20, 2015

This guy has his own website now?

Going big time.

November and December hardware sales gonna be crazy

NateDrake · Oct 20, 2015

KiefbladeMaster said:
Neither is this generation likely to run a decade like the previous one. And as others have pointed it, it's sold more than the previous console did in the same time-frame.

The same time-frame doesn't make for a great argument or comparison since too many factors are different. PS3 sold horribly for the first 2-3yrs in the US and didn't turn things around until late 2008/early 2009. Xbox 360 had supply issues.

No one is discrediting the PS4's great start.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 20, 2015

Utter doom, I tell you.

thelastword · Oct 20, 2015

First to 10 million wins the generation says Microsoft....

Mikey Jr. · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
edit: Removed comment that was too much for GAF to handle.

I know you removed it, but this is one fucking country.

Like usual, USA=World

People can't wrap their head around that outside of the USA exist other countries that also purchase consoles.

etta · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

Oh deer.

Nice stuff, Zhuge.

PeregrinSe7en · Oct 20, 2015

thelastword said:
First to 10 million wins the generation says Microsoft....

well then Sony's got this continent in the bag then

KillerMan91 · Oct 20, 2015

Walpurgis said:
Read the OP, the lead that the PS4+XB1 have over the PS3+360 is decreasing. I'm now expecting that lead to disappear.[/B]

It's not though. Both PS4 and Xbox One will have bigger holidays than X360 had in 2007 and PS3 in 2008.

OdysseusVA · Oct 20, 2015

Much needed "analysis"

dragonyeuw · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

I think it's fair to say no way in hell was MS going to let that happen again. Back to back gens of that and they may as well pack their bags and go home now.

stay gold · Oct 20, 2015

Very strong sales. Had no idea the XB1 was outpacing the 360 also.

The overall console userbase will be lower than last gen, but thats mostly a Nintendo issue I guess.

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

Why would that be an issue? MS set a precedent of owning up to their hardware issues last gen, unlike Sony with the PS2.

shoreu · Oct 20, 2015

BigBadShamoo said:
Good, if you bought an Xbox 1 after knowing about the red rings many of the Xbox 360s had you'd be a fool to stick with them for another console.

They made sure this wouldn't happen again. Why do people have to swear off a product forever because of a mess-up that they acknowledged and made a point to fix.

Walpurgis · Oct 20, 2015

Mikey Jr. said:
I know you removed it, but this is one fucking country.

Like usual, USA=World

People can't wrap their head around that outside of the USA exist other countries that also purchase consoles.

No need to take offense. I'm not even American. I hadn't considered other emerging markets like Latin America and the Middle East though. I don't think they will be able to make up the difference this gen.

KillerMan91 said:
It's not though. Both PS4 and Xbox One will have bigger holidays than X360 had in 2007 and PS3 in 2008.

at one point last year the PS4 and XB1 were ahead by over 80% where as now the combined lead versus their predecessors is only 40%

Lights and Waves · Oct 20, 2015

Congrats to Sony! I'm still waiting on a slim model.

truth411 · Oct 20, 2015

KillerMan91 said:
It's not though. Both PS4 and Xbox One will have bigger holidays than X360 had in 2007 and PS3 in 2008.

Unless the X1 sales more than the 360 (not going to happen) it's only a matter of time before PS3/360 surpass the PS4/X1 in sales. There isn't going to be a "Kinect" affect for the X1 this generation.

PdotMichael · Oct 20, 2015

Mikey Jr. said:
I know you removed it, but this is one fucking country.

Like usual, USA=World

People can't wrap their head around that outside of the USA exist other countries that also purchase consoles.

Well, Nintendo and Microsoft are general quite US centric in their sales. It's Sony that basically dominates Europe with sales which often exceeds the US sales.

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