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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th

pixelation

Member
The majority of my predictions have had the PS4 on top. Only months in which I predicted XB1 winning so far have been last December, November and March 2014.

Not what i'm referring to, i mean when you post about how this upcoming holiday season may be a repeat of this past one with XB coming out on top, or how the XB still has the possibility of ending up on top (in the US), or how there maybe a sizable amount of XB guys who are yet to purchase an XBO but will do so after Halo 5 releases.

I'm not saying you're wrong, or proposing something that's outrageous... it's just that you mostly talk positively of XB as a whole, finding the silver lining and whatnot. Again, nothing against it just something that i noticed.

Now let's allow for the thread to carry on with it's original purpose!!!
i apologize if i derailed the thread for a bit, my bad
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Not what i'm referring to, i mean when you post about how this upcoming holiday season may be a repeat of this past one with XB coming out on top,

It might -- depending on price, SKUs, and/or game lineups.

or how the XB still has the possibility of ending up on top (in the US),

Less than 800K in US isn't a big gap (especially in comparison to previous gens at this point) and the gen is still young. MS needs to act fast though.

Me saying it's possible for both cases doesn't equal me thinking it WILL happen though.

or how there maybe a sizable amount of XB guys who are yet to purchase an XBO but will do so after Halo 5 releases.

I think so. I would say the (great) difference in the userbase of the 360 vs. the XB1 back this up.

it's just that you mostly talk positively of XB as a whole, finding the silver lining and whatnot. Again, nothing against it just something that i noticed.

Wouldn't say I'm really highly positive -- I just don't like to jump to conclusions.

Now let's allow for the thread to carry on with it's original purpose!!!
i apologize if i derailed the thread for a bit, my bad

Yes. Good idea (haha).
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Guess this a joke but he is claiming enough people did this to make a difference in sales.

2:1 difference in sales during a month with the PS3 winning definitely wasn't normal last gen in the US.

He has no evidence yet claiming its going to make a significant difference.

I never said anything about "significant" as I (again) obviously don't know. I simply said that there are some PS4 owners who will get an XB1 later this year for Halo 5. Not sure why that's so controversial (lol).
 

gtj1092

Member
2:1 difference in sales during a month with the PS3 winning definitely wasn't normal last gen in the US.



I never said anything about "significant" as I (again) obviously don't know. I simply said that there are some PS4 owners who will get an XB1 later this year for Halo 5. Not sure why that's so controversial (lol).

Just as controversial as claiming most of Halo 5s sales will come from people who already purchased XB1.

Yes sales were different that month MGS4 launched.

If you don't think its a significant number why keep mentioning it.

And again you are attributing the sales gap MGS4 month to 360 owners crossing over. That's the way I read your response. Maybe I'm misinterpreted though.
 

Abdiel

Member
Just as controversial as claiming most of Halo 5s sales will come from people who already purchased XB1.

Yes sales were different that month MGS4 launched.

If you don't think its a significant number why keep mentioning it.

Look, I know there's some extremely combative and/or passive aggressive XB defenders on GAF, that will come up with strange mental equations and imaginary trends to create a favorable narrative, but Bgamer really isn't one of them.

He may prefer the XB1 at this point for the games he enjoys, and some of his outlook might seem optimistic towards the XB1's futures, but that doesn't mean you should jump on him for it. He's not being nonsensical or out there. I've seen people making snide comments in other threads about him too, and it just irks me a little. No need to get on his case. He presented his personal projection for this holiday season, backed it up with his impressions of why, and that's that. He's not trying to fight you or anyone else on it.

Sales discussions are one thing, but I mean, we're what, 5 months away from seriously looking at those trends? I assure you, I'll keep you all posted on what I see in store as we lead into that, and MS's marketing machine gets underway.
 

hawk2025

Member
Look, I know there's some extremely combative and/or passive aggressive XB defenders on GAF, that will come up with strange mental equations and imaginary trends to create a favorable narrative, but Bgamer really isn't one of them.

He may prefer the XB1 at this point for the games he enjoys, and some of his outlook might seem optimistic towards the XB1's futures, but that doesn't mean you should jump on him for it. He's not being nonsensical or out there. I've seen people making snide comments in other threads about him too, and it just irks me a little. No need to get on his case. He presented his personal projection for this holiday season, backed it up with his impressions of why, and that's that. He's not trying to fight you or anyone else on it.

Sales discussions are one thing, but I mean, we're what, 5 months away from seriously looking at those trends? I assure you, I'll keep you all posted on what I see in store as we lead into that, and MS's marketing machine gets underway.


As someone that has a few times disagreed and debated with BGamer but have always felt honesty and an attempt at actually explaining his projections coming from his posts -- seriously, this.

It's getting annoying and excessive IMO and might be pushing some people away from engaging in the discussion.
 

gtj1092

Member
Look, I know there's some extremely combative and/or passive aggressive XB defenders on GAF, that will come up with strange mental equations and imaginary trends to create a favorable narrative, but Bgamer really isn't one of them.

He may prefer the XB1 at this point for the games he enjoys, and some of his outlook might seem optimistic towards the XB1's futures, but that doesn't mean you should jump on him for it. He's not being nonsensical or out there. I've seen people making snide comments in other threads about him too, and it just irks me a little. No need to get on his case. He presented his personal projection for this holiday season, backed it up with his impressions of why, and that's that. He's not trying to fight you or anyone else on it.

Sales discussions are one thing, but I mean, we're what, 5 months away from seriously looking at those trends? I assure you, I'll keep you all posted on what I see in store as we lead into that, and MS's marketing machine gets underway.

Huh?

I'm engaging him in debate. Why is it OK to question juniors throwing out random generalizations in the last NPD thread with no evidence but not bgamer90.

Don't think I was anymore aggressive as anyone else has been.

Bgamer90 is a great debater and does well in defending his ideas.

I like engaging him in prediction threads its like tradition now lol.
 
Not what i'm referring to, i mean when you post about how this upcoming holiday season may be a repeat of this past one with XB coming out on top, or how the XB still has the possibility of ending up on top (in the US), or how there maybe a sizable amount of XB guys who are yet to purchase an XBO but will do so after Halo 5 releases.

I'm not saying you're wrong, or proposing something that's outrageous... it's just that you mostly talk positively of XB as a whole, finding the silver lining and whatnot. Again, nothing against it just something that i noticed.

Now let's allow for the thread to carry on with it's original purpose!!!
i apologize if i derailed the thread for a bit, my bad

Nothing he has said there is remotely unreasonable and its certainly possible that all those things will happen. It you disagree you hold actually engage in a discussion as to why rather than insinuating that he has a bias towards the Xbox one. That actually leads to discussion rather than just childish bickering. Your post adds nothing to the discussion. The problem isn't detailing the thread, it's bringing another posters motives into question based on very little rather than actually discussing the content of their post.
 

Abdiel

Member
Huh?

I'm engaging him in debate. Why is it OK to question juniors throwing out random generalizations in the last NPD thread with no evidence but not bgamer90.

Don't think I was anymore aggressive as anyone else has been.

Bgamer90 is a great debater and does well in defending his ideas.

I like engaging him in prediction threads its like tradition now lol.

It's not that I have an issue with engaging his speculation, because I encourage debate and discussion, making sure that there's solid logic in place.

Most of those juniors clearly pushing an agenda and not contributing anything constructive are generally banned, for good reason.

Just seen a few times in other threads where people seem to stamp labels on Bgamer and write off his perspective, which is unfortunate, cause he's a pretty level headed guy from what I've seen.
 

Dargor

Member
Yeah, Bgamer90 has a positive outlook towards the Xbox One people, thats it. Its ok being positive about something. All of the things he said could happen, he isn't saying they will happen.
 

Abdiel

Member
I lost count of how many junior members got banned from the PS4 sales threads in the past week.

Man, that's nothing. Were you around in 2013, when Bish was outright talking about the amount of members registered via emails from very specific marketing firms? All of whom were pushing similar agendas, including similar phrasing? It was crazy.
 
Is this like the 4th time now? You're pretty popular,BGamer. :p

Yeah, Bgamer90 has a positive outlook towards the Xbox One people, thats it. Its ok being positive about something. All of the things he said could happen, he isn't saying they will happen.

And his speculation are in line with realistic possibilities. Some parts are more optimistic than others, but he's fair on those points.

He's not like Hindle, or any others who's greyyed out by now, who were running off fuel of downright, irrational optimism like "XB1 will win China even though I'm completely fucking clueless about China, and has the maturity of a high school student who thinks in the idiotic lense of Chinese hates Japanese, so reasons!"
 

RexNovis

Banned
Placeholder

PS4] 2000K
XB1] 150

Think you might have accidentally thrown an extra zero in there on your PS4 predictions and forgot to add a K to your XB1 prediction. Either that or you're a particularly humorless troll.

It's not that I have an issue with engaging his speculation, because I encourage debate and discussion, making sure that there's solid logic in place.

Unless someone is truly making outrageous claims, parroting factually incorrect assumptions or speculating based in said assumptions there is no need to call them out personally. While I may disagree with the likelihood of some of BGs predictions about the holiday season they are reasonable and simply too far ahead to really discuss in detail either way. He has stated his thought process behind his statements and there is nothing outright objectionable or illogical about it.

Most of those juniors clearly pushing an agenda and not contributing anything constructive are generally banned, for good reason.

For proof of this just look at the March NPD results thread. 3 junior members received perma bans for agenda driven obfuscation, misinformation and intentional sidetracking the sales discussion. Sales GAF has a tremendously low tolerable fir tangential bullshit and offenders trend to be handled rather swiftly.
 

Javin98

Banned
Man, that's nothing. Were you around in 2013, when Bish was outright talking about the amount of members registered via emails from very specific marketing firms? All of whom were pushing similar agendas, including similar phrasing? It was crazy.
Unfortunately, I only started browsing this forum about a year ago. But damn, that sounds like a crazy time.
 
Unfortunately, I only started browsing this forum about a year ago. But damn, that sounds like a crazy time.

It was a glorious time where juniors compared the original Xbox one plans to steam, super secret GPUs, secret sauce bets went unpaid, and reko fell from heaven in a blaze of glory.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Unfortunately, I only started browsing this forum about a year ago. But damn, that sounds like a crazy time.

He's not exaggerating I remember one thread where 6 juniors were banned and bish posted quoting them all saying damn near the same outrageous spin. Those were dark (and exciting) times indeed.

It was a glorious time where juniors compared the original Xbox one plans to steam, super secret GPUs, secret sauce bets went unpaid, and reko fell from heaven in a blaze of glory.

My favorite were the "you aren't a real gamer if you don't support DRM because the used market is going to destroy gaming."
 

Javin98

Banned
It was a glorious time where juniors compared the original Xbox one plans to steam, super secret GPUs, secret sauce bets went unpaid, and reko fell from heaven in a blaze of glory.
He's not exaggerating I remember one thread where 6 juniors were banned and bish posted quoting them all saying damn near the same outrageous spin. Those were dark (and exciting) times indeed.
Damn, I guess the salt mines today are nothing compared to those back in 2013, then. I really should have been there.
 
It was a glorious time where juniors compared the original Xbox one plans to steam, super secret GPUs, secret sauce bets went unpaid, and reko fell from heaven in a blaze of glory.

How about when Penello made a bet with all of GAF that launch 3rd party Xbox One games would look identical to PS4 3rd party games and if not he would publicly apologize.

Man, launch was crazy
 

Javin98

Banned
How about when Penello made a bet with all of GAF that launch 3rd party Xbox One games would look identical to PS4 3rd party games and if not he would publicly apologize.

Man, launch was crazy
Say what? Who would be dumb enough to make a bet like that? Obviously the PS4 versions would be superior unless he wasn't aware of the hardware differences or was plain salty.

My favorite were the "you aren't a real gamer if you don't support DRM because the used market is going to destroy gaming."
Huh?! This shit was on GAF?! I expected this to be on Gamespot or IGN.
 

Elandyll

Banned
2:1 difference in sales during a month with the PS3 winning definitely wasn't normal last gen in the US.



I never said anything about "significant" as I (again) obviously don't know. I simply said that there are some PS4 owners who will get an XB1 later this year for Halo 5. Not sure why that's so controversial (lol).

Just so we compare apples to apples, the situation with MGS4 wasn't actually comparable, given that there was 0 MGs games available on PS3 until MGS4 showed up afaik.

This is not the case with Halo and the XB1, quite the opposite in fact thanks to the MCC (even if its launch was borked to some extent).

I think that while Halo 5 will certainly help sell some XB1s, a ton of Halo fans already got the XB1 in order to bask in Halo 1-4 tbh, with a Halo 2 remastered, which will probably limit its impact on (hardware) sales imo.
 

RexNovis

Banned
How about when Penello made a bet with all of GAF that launch 3rd party Xbox One games would look identical to PS4 3rd party games and if not he would publicly apologize.

Man, launch was crazy

I remember that. Technical fellows and "we made DirectX" (when they technically didn't they acquired DirectX). Did we ever get that apology? AFAIK he basically dropped off the radar completely after launch.

Say what? Who would be dumb enough to make a bet like that? Obviously the PS4 versions would be superior unless he wasn't aware of the hardware differences or was plain salty.

He was claiming the power difference was minimal despite the specs proving otherwise. Seemed to imply their programming expertise would somehow make up for it which is absolutely ridiculous. Quick somebody link the post for Javin so he can see the absurdity. Oh and in case you didn't know Penello is a Microsoft employee.
 
Say what? Who would be dumb enough to make a bet like that? Obviously the PS4 versions would be superior unless he wasn't aware of the hardware differences or was plain salty.

Or was plain misleading. This was prior to launch in one of the threads. A couple months before launch Penello was everywhere arguing how Xbox One was just as powerful as PS4

I remember that. Technical fellows and "we made DirectX" (when they technically didn't they acquired DirectX). Did we ever get that apology? AFAIK he basically dropped off the radar completely after launch.

God damn that "Technical Fellows" explanation was crazy.
 

Javin98

Banned
Or was plain misleading. This was prior to launch in one of the threads. A couple months before launch Penello was everywhere arguing how Xbox One was just as powerful as PS4
I think I'm starting to remember now. Was he also behind "da power of da cloud"?

He was claiming the power difference was minimal despite the specs proving otherwise. Seemed to imply their programming expertise would somehow make up for it which is absolutely ridiculous. Quick somebody link the post for Javin so he can see the absurdity. Oh and in case you didn't know Penello is a Microsoft employee.
Yeah, I just Google searched and found out. XD My bad. I'm not very good at knowing who's who in the gaming industry but I do know several people like Mark Cerny, Phil Spencer, Don Mattrick, and the popular Kaz.
 
He's not exaggerating I remember one thread where 6 juniors were banned and bish posted quoting them all saying damn near the same outrageous spin. Those were dark (and exciting) times indeed.



My favorite were the "you aren't a real gamer if you don't support DRM because the used market is going to destroy gaming."


Ah yes. Don't forget the family plan allowing you to share one copy of a game with 20 billion people and thus bringing down the cost of games.

How about when Penello made a bet with all of GAF that launch 3rd party Xbox One games would look identical to PS4 3rd party games and if not he would publicly apologize.

Man, launch was crazy

Those technical fellows invented DirectX, they know their stuff. Don't forget Europe being a country either.

These times are tame in comparison. We even lost baconsammy in those dark days. No one was safe. I still have a meltdown thread where someone compared the Xbox hate to the way people feel about aids.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I still have a meltdown thread where someone compared the Xbox hate to the way people feel about aids.

LMFAO wait what?!?! Seriously?!?! I don't remember that at all. I beg you PM me a link so I can witness this fur myself.

But we are way off topic guys. As fun as reminiscing is lets get back to discussing sales.

OT: I think June is when we will see the gap break last year's ore holiday figures again. The Batman console seems to be really appealing to the U.S. Market. Mostly it will friend on whether it but they treat like a true limited edition it if the produce it in large quantities similar to the White Destiny SKU. Stick is going to be the determining factor there methinks.
 
LMFAO wait what?!?! Seriously?!?! I don't remember that at all. I beg you PM me a link so I can witness this fur myself.

But we are way off topic guys. As fun as reminiscing is lets get back to discussing sales.

OT: I think June is when we will see the gap break last year's ore holiday figures again. The Batman console seems to be really appealing to the U.S. Market. Mostly it will friend on whether it but they treat like a true limited edition it if the produce it in large quantities similar to the White Destiny SKU. Stick is going to be the determining factor there methinks.

I see June being a huge month. Batman will move units. The next big momentum generator will come in September as a price drop coincides with the release of MGS5. Tearaway should do well this summer since it has little competition overall.

September would be a solid timeframe for a price drop but with the heavy hitters on XB1 coming out in October it light be better to drop it then to offset any sales bump MS sees from Halo 5 and other closely affiliated third party titles. Either way a price drop is definitely coming it's just a matter of how much and when. I don't think we will be finding out at E3 personally. It seems too soon to announce and would heavily handicap sales prior to the price drop.

I think the drop will be announced at gamescom. Beefed up bundles will be released to combat the heavy hitters. E3 will show us which titles will be coming this fall. I'd love a surprise title, but I expect Uncharted remastered and something on the level of LBP3.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I see June being a huge month. Batman will move units. The next big momentum generator will come in September as a price drop coincides with the release of MGS5. Tearaway should do well this summer since it has little competition overall.

September would be a solid timeframe for a price drop but with the heavy hitters on XB1 coming out in October it light be better to drop it then to offset any sales bump MS sees from Halo 5 and other closely affiliated third party titles. Either way a price drop is definitely coming it's just a matter of how much and when. I don't think we will be finding out at E3 personally. It seems too soon to announce and would heavily handicap sales prior to the price drop.
 

stryke

Member
How about when Penello made a bet with all of GAF that launch 3rd party Xbox One games would look identical to PS4 3rd party games and if not he would publicly apologize.

Man, launch was crazy

What made it really golden were the people who lapped it up after the post.
 
September will be a good month for a PS4 price drop since MGSV and the Destiny expansion will be out by then. The big question is whether it'll be a $50 or $100 price cut.
 

Conduit

Banned
And that's all I said. I obviously don't know exactly how many but I wouldn't be surprised if it helps in a similar fashion to how MGS4 helped previously 360-only owners get a PS3 during its launch month.

Is there any proof?? I'm not so old member here.
 

pixelation

Member
Nothing he has said there is remotely unreasonable and its certainly possible that all those things will happen. It you disagree you hold actually engage in a discussion as to why rather than insinuating that he has a bias towards the Xbox one. That actually leads to discussion rather than just childish bickering. Your post adds nothing to the discussion. The problem isn't detailing the thread, it's bringing another posters motives into question based on very little rather than actually discussing the content of their post.

...
......
..
Did you even read my post?, i said the same thing myself. And was i aggressive at any point during my conversation with him?, i just asked him an honest question. I don't know why you seem so upset about it honestly... chill out.
 
September will be a good month for a PS4 price drop since MGSV and the Destiny expansion will be out by then. The big question is whether it'll be a $50 or $100 price cut.

If Sony were cool they announced the price drop exactly for the day of the Halo launch.
That would be fun.

Missed the whole discussion about agendas, banned juniors and BG. Just wanted to say that this sweetens my morning and keeps me away from productivity. thanks for that.

Also, it's totally okay to cheer for a certain team, even predict stuff enhanced with some wishful thinking. It would be a sad place were everyone had the same opinion.
Agenda trolls are a different thing, though, but even they are entertaining, especially when the ban-hammer comes down.

Does anyone remember the thread about xboxOne where a mod even changed the thread name into "why I should take care not to register under a PR-mail-adress" or something? that was funny.

And now please proceed.

I am proud i have a white xbone...
that's the only white pride acceptable...
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Just so we compare apples to apples, the situation with MGS4 wasn't actually comparable, given that there was 0 MGs games available on PS3 until MGS4 showed up afaik.

This is not the case with Halo and the XB1, quite the opposite in fact thanks to the MCC (even if its launch was borked to some extent).

I think that while Halo 5 will certainly help sell some XB1s, a ton of Halo fans already got the XB1 in order to bask in Halo 1-4 tbh, with a Halo 2 remastered, which will probably limit its impact on (hardware) sales imo.

MCC did help sales but Halo 5 (like MGS4) will be the first true entry of the series for its gen. There were Halo fans who didn't care about MCC since they already played the games on older consoles with news coming out about the collection's major issues just adding on to that.

I still feel like both games are comparable due to them being the true debut of popular series for their respective gens, and both games being on consoles that weren't in the top spot in North America at their time of release even though their predecessors were.
 

Welfare

Member
Just so we compare apples to apples, the situation with MGS4 wasn't actually comparable, given that there was 0 MGs games available on PS3 until MGS4 showed up afaik.

This is not the case with Halo and the XB1, quite the opposite in fact thanks to the MCC (even if its launch was borked to some extent).

I think that while Halo 5 will certainly help sell some XB1s, a ton of Halo fans already got the XB1 in order to bask in Halo 1-4 tbh, with a Halo 2 remastered, which will probably limit its impact on (hardware) sales imo.

Launch month for the MCC was >660k. Total 2014 sales were >1m. I don't think a ton of fans got the Xbox One for MCC yet, or otherwise the MCC would've had a bigger launch.

It also doesn't help that it's just a collection of old games. The majority of Halo fans wouldn't care for Halo 2 Anniversary, they would care about the next actual game, Halo 5.
 

teiresias

Member
My favorite were the "you aren't a real gamer if you don't support DRM because the used market is going to destroy gaming."

And people wonder why some of us will never support MS's presence in this industry. The fact that they were unabashedly paying for astroturfers to try and tell gamers that kind of BS s inexcusable . . . and yes, Spencer was no doubt a part of that original behavior.
 
How much did the other Batman games sell on the 360 and PS3?

Because if the left is higher or the ratio isn't far, I don't see why people will think June will be any larger than may with the Witcher.

And people wonder why some of us will never support MS's presence in this industry. The fact that they were unabashedly paying for astroturfers to try and tell gamers that kind of BS s inexcusable . . . and yes, Spencer was no doubt a part of that original behavior.

Nah, it literally was a fusion of what was going on with PC to work on consoles, people put way to much hyperbole in them doing this horrendous deeds that burned the orphanage. I mean sure I didn't like what they were doing and am glad they backed off but I'm not going to hire Agent 47 to go after them.
 

RexNovis

Banned
What made it really golden were the people who lapped it up after the post.

Requiescat In Pace SpeedyBlueDude

And people wonder why some of us will never support MS's presence in this industry. The fact that they were unabashedly paying for astroturfers to try and tell gamers that kind of BS s inexcusable . . . and yes, Spencer was no doubt a part of that original behavior.

Meh Sony undoubtedly has used astroturfers too they just haven't been needed as much as MS thus far this gen. Honestly I find their use by MS early this gen less reprehensible and more pathetically humorous. Personally, I found Penello's and Major Nelson's blatant spin and outright lies far more reprehensible. But again this is really off topic. As amusing as it might be let's try to keep the MS bashing to minimum and stick to the topic at hand here: sales.

Sidenote: how the hell did I get a tag before you?!? Never in a million years did I think that would happen. (≧∇≦)
 
We've still had people finding out about the LE console and coming in to ask about it, though we have to tell them it was basically gone within the first two days of in store preorders.

Your store cap was reached?
You can't take more pre-orders? Are they really limited or is it like the Destiny bundle?
Amazon just made them available again so I don't know if I should get one...

I like that silver.

Edit: Sorry for the 20 questions lol
 
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