SuperSonic1305
Member
Are you insane? Both those things will easily happen.
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April 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes May 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Are you insane? Both those things will easily happen.
100% agree. PS4 at $349 isn't going to look like much of a price drop -- especially if the Xbox One is under $300 later this year.
Chobel
Member
They're close mainly because XB1 is $50 cheaper.
I don't think the 360 had a June above 350K until 2010. It's possible but I wouldn't say "easily". I would imagine that the Batman PS4s will make up the majority of PS4 sales that month as June is typically a pretty low month for console sales.
Welfare
Member
I said it should be close to it. Destiny is probably not near 20 million, but around 15-16 million. I can't see a large amount of players buying one copy and having multiple accounts to inflate the numbers so high.
Or maybe there are. If only companies actually gave out shipment numbers.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Xbox One would be just about buried if was still the same price as the PS4, especially if it had not been much cheaper the majority of last holiday season. If price parity happens again I see a similar result.
I don't think you remember how badly things were starting to go for that console before the price drop and promotions.
anexanhume
Member
Destiny pushed PS4 to one of the best Septembers ever. I wouldn't be so sure it won't hit 350k.
I imagine there are loads of used copies floating around.
Nightengale
Member
How much do you think the Batman bundle will sell?
Chobel
Member
15 million copies seems a bit high. I say it's 12 million or less.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
You ready to make more bets already?
I know that bundle will give PS4 a significant boost, but I guess June must be a traditionally slow month if you don't think it can hit 350k.
Welfare
Member
I don't know how much the bundle itself will sell, but it won't be enough to push the PS4 past 350k. I'm predicting May sales will be lower than last year for the PS4 (this might change depending on this month's results) and Batman being at the end of the month, I don't see it being enough to push past 350k.
Fuck, all this green.
Chobel
Member
Just remember, June is 5 weeks, and last year PS4 did 269k with no notable software.
The gap was over 1 million before the holiday season last year. Xbox reduced the gap by dropping their price to $329 with two games, one brand new. MS has had to reduce their price below the PS4's to even keep it close. Do you really think Xbox one will stay close if it doesn't get a price drop below PS4's?
Welfare
Member
Destiny is bigger than Batman and June is relatively slow month.
So much that so that the actual sell through would be super far away from the actual registered users? Gamers are spending 3+ hours on Destiny every day. I doubt so many people are returning Destiny, or Activision might have a problem.
I'd say that's too low
All the times a console was at or over 350k in June last gen.You ready to make more bets already?
I know that bundle will give PS4 a significant boost, but I guess June must be a traditionally slow month if you don't think it can hit 350k.
2007 - WII 400K
2008 - PS3 406K (MGS4) WII 666K
2009 - WII 362K
2010 - 360 452K WII 423K
2011 - 360 577K
Wii was a monster, PS3 had MGS4 (GOTY) and 360 was starting to get its second wind. I don't see Batman pushing the PS4 past 350k when it is launching later in the month.
It's also $399 still and sales seem to be slowing. Without Batman I think June would be lower than last year.
I can be wrong, but that's just what I see.
You guys are truly underestimating the impact of that batman bundle. There will be a lot of batman collectors Who will have to have it. With bundles of this nature you're not just attracting gamers. It can easily hit the Destiny bundle numbers imo.
Nightengale
Member
Batman bundle will easily do 200k in my uneducated opinion.
Are you suggesting that PS4 will do over 500K in June? That's almost double what it sold in June 2014. Let's see how April and May turn out first before jumping the gun.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
How often has a game as big as Arkham Knight released in June with a special edition console? I don't think there is any data to account for this.
The closest in that group is MGS4, and it was exclusive. I think Batman will push PS4 over 300k, but not by much.
Not all ps4's sold that month were the Destiny bundle. I feel as far as bundles go the Batman is bigger. Simply because it attracts A much bigger audience Than just gamers. I feel The DC/batman guys will buy it.
IIRC ~350K were. I think you are correct in saying that Batman will reach a more diverse crowd I am not sure if it will be Destiny big.
Welfare
Member
MGS4 was bigger (exclusive) and had a special bundle.
Nightengale
Member
PS4 has the small extra advantage of being the leading/preferred console choice to date.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
We have seen that a game doesn't need to be exclusive to push console sales(Destiny). I'm not saying it will hit that mark(nor do I really care), but it seems weird to completely write off.
This too. PS3 had to overcome a lot to sell that number. PS4 has no such obstacles.
500k is probably pushing it. 350k seems possible to me though.
I wouldn't say I'm underestimating it; I'm simply basing it on how June sales usually are. 500K+ total (a la PS4 in September) for a system during a Summer month would be insane.
That's all I'm saying Destiny pulled in just gamers. The Batman bundle Is pulling from a much bigger pool. I know people who own a ps4 They're buying it just because it's batman.
Welfare
Member
I'm not writing it off. I think it won't push the PS4 past 350k.
I Don't know about total ps4 sales for June, but I do think The BM bundle while match the Destiny bundle.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
[3DS] 167k
[PS4] 264k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 113k
I do these so irregularly. But I have a feeling this month is going to be a strange one, so I'm throwing my hat in.
[PS4] 264k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 113k
I do these so irregularly. But I have a feeling this month is going to be a strange one, so I'm throwing my hat in.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
They were close when the Xbox One was $500 outside of may. Also if not mistaken one of these new months of 2015 was down from last year but I could be wrong.
Nope.
Nope, Both consoles will be $299, one will have the big anticipated exclusives and TP's, one will Have TP's, and of course retailer deals on top of that for both.
Things actually weren't going that badly at all actually, September was the only issue, PS4 wasn't winning by 80-100k every month until November so I have no idea what you're talking about.
It took the PS4 quite some time to make that 1.1 million gap. Something many people ignore.
The PS4 had better deals than the Xbox one in December and still lost btw.
Also no, MS does not have to drop the price, both will be $299, and the outcome will be different, especially since MS is fixing it's preseason problem of having no games for 6 months of the year, and will be coming off a holiday of big FP and TP games. For example, march was going to happen regardless if sales matxched with the same price of $399, Xbox one had no major games that month, PS4 technically had 2, coming off the month before which also had a Major game, which Xbox one had none.
That's 2 of the 4 completed months so far. January saw the Xbox One increase the price for a time for no reason right after the holidays. If anything the only reason the PS4 is still slightly edging the Xbox One, is because MS keeps messing up.
Imo.
John Bender
Banned
Another bet?
Chobel
Member
What? No. December deals for XB1 were even better than Black Friday deals.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
I honestly don't understand why people think Batman is that big. Do we have 360/PS3 numbers of the last 2 games?
Also weird seeing people doing 100k+ gaps for this month.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
The PS4 has some pretty great deals in December, and Xbox One still won by quite the margin.
Of course, it could have been a local instead of general thing, but that's a lot of stores. But I think it is generally accepted the PS4 had better deals in December than November at the very least.
Chobel
Member
XB1 deals were way better though, every single XB1 purchase came with $50 gift cards (and in some stores $70)
All Sony did was putting an extra controller in the standard SKU.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
PS4's came with gift cards in so not sure what that means at all.
But anyway, do we have Batman numbers of the previous 2 games for 360/ps3 separate and together?
Nightengale
Member
Arkham City solid 1.5 million across PS3/360 on it's first NPD month. Globally, it shipped over 6 million copies in 4 months.
Nightengale
Member
XB1 was 349 with 2 games and gift cards. If you bought from a MS Store, it was 3 games since they had a free one game deal.
PS4's best deal was 399 with one game and gift cards.
What it means was that XB1 still had better deals, despite what Sony did for December.
Chobel
Member
Not all stores did that. In case of XB1 pretty much all retailers gave $50 (or more) gift cards.
Exactly, even if they win Holidays 2015 in US (worldwide = PS4 slaughter), which is a big *IF* if Sony drops the PS4 price in late October, they will still lose what they've gained after the New Year when PS4 goes back to obliterating them.
And that obliteration will happen with Uncharted 4 and Street Fighter 5 just around the corner.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
I could literally walk down the Street in December, get a PS4 for $350 with a Gift card, and a free game, sometimes 2 free games.
Sometimes I would get PSN+ free with the purchase of a PS4 and one game, which also came with a free game.
So I guess it just depends where you looked (Not all retailers had 2 free games and gift cards for Xbox one purchases (outside black friday), during those months, it was mostly target leading that anyway. Bestbuy occasionally had gift card deals but that wasn't much of a thin after November.)
But this all depends on where you go so this conversation is pretty much pointless, back to Batman.
Nope Xbox One actually has games in that part of the year so nope. Who will win is anyone's guess but there will be no "obliteration".
Anyway back to batman.
That's one thing is never liked about Microsoft's strategy of releasing games. I know the fall is when everyone is going to be buying, but it makes the rest of the year barren, and pushes me to buy said games for $60 when I should be looking for deals. I'd much prefer games be released year round, therefore I always have something to look forward I don't mind the cries of "no games" during the holidays generally because I'm not looking for new games, I'm looking for cheap old ones that I passed on earlier. Maybe like 1 or 2 new ones is nice, but paying $60? I'd rather wait.
For 2016 Microsoft currently has:
- Quantum Break
- Scalebound
- Crackdown
Of those three I think QB is likely to make Spring. Scalebound is a possibility, it really depends on how Platinum works. Crackdown, I'm doubtful.
What kind of games? Because I don't see any IP big enough to compete with those two. Just like their holiday win last year which came at a big price didn't do much for next year and by the time we're in Holidays this year the Gap will again be over 1 million.
anexanhume
Member
Batman could very easily obliterate Destiny. It was huge last gen and unlike Destiny it's not cross gen. Take a peak at Amazon charts. The batman bundle has been chatting both in April and May.
Microsoft Chad
Banned
Quantum Break and Unannounced games will be in that period, it won't be barren.
Back to April NPD.
Evolve didn't chart in February and Pre-orders died after mid January, was number 2 in NPD. Amazon doesn't actually work for anything.