Euphoria14
Member
Coming for me on Long Island?
No way Jose! Go away!
No way Jose! Go away!
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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
Smiles and Cries
Member
next week in CT ugh06Z GFS
06Z GFS
Yikes for New England
Power and wifi up for me at my office now. Semblance of normality may return now that I have a cool place to work and browse the internet again. Just over one week since the storm hit - it has been a wild week.
Let's hope we don't have any further hurricanes this year, we couldn't take even a category 1 right now. I'm looking at these disturbances off of Africa right now with a blinding hatred. Piss off, tropical depression fourteen!
We've had so many people fly into the island to help us it's unreal though. 80+ engineers for the power grid (most of the island is still without power and will be for some time), 10 UN humanitarian assessors, Red Cross personnel, special forces from the UK to control crime etc.
Problem is now that the adrenaline of the storm has passed and people are just hot, bored, poor and upset. Still, we've just got to stick with it. Also, the stress and work and hanging out in sweat-soaked clothes have led me to develop a cold so the last two days I've felt like shit. I also lacerated my heel while removing rotting carpet from a friend's place so I'm hobbling around the place.
Unfortunately as I wasn't able to be online I wasn't able to follow Irma hitting the US. I understand you dodged the worst of it? But lots of people are apparently without power. Can't understand how such a major nation could have such a poor power grid but I hope you're all back online sooner rather than later.
EDIT:
It's crazy that Jose is back in play for you guys.
It's also crazy that my first post regarding Irma in this thread was August 31st. It has dominated two weeks of my life now. Also crazy just how accurate that initial path prediction was.
Let's hope we don't have any further hurricanes this year, we couldn't take even a category 1 right now. I'm looking at these disturbances off of Africa right now with a blinding hatred. Piss off, tropical depression fourteen!
We've had so many people fly into the island to help us it's unreal though. 80+ engineers for the power grid (most of the island is still without power and will be for some time), 10 UN humanitarian assessors, Red Cross personnel, special forces from the UK to control crime etc.
Problem is now that the adrenaline of the storm has passed and people are just hot, bored, poor and upset. Still, we've just got to stick with it. Also, the stress and work and hanging out in sweat-soaked clothes have led me to develop a cold so the last two days I've felt like shit. I also lacerated my heel while removing rotting carpet from a friend's place so I'm hobbling around the place.
Unfortunately as I wasn't able to be online I wasn't able to follow Irma hitting the US. I understand you dodged the worst of it? But lots of people are apparently without power. Can't understand how such a major nation could have such a poor power grid but I hope you're all back online sooner rather than later.
EDIT:
It's crazy that Jose is back in play for you guys.
It's also crazy that my first post regarding Irma in this thread was August 31st. It has dominated two weeks of my life now. Also crazy just how accurate that initial path prediction was.
TarpitCarnivore
Member
Again, these are 5+ day out modals. Good to be prepared, but be mindful the eye can wobble to the west a bit. Euro still has the eye remaining far enough off the coast for Del/NJ/NYC and parts of LI
Absolutely. I'm out on Long Island so I have my eyes on this one...
0Z GFS
Well. Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard are in for a bit of wind.
Don't worry about it until the NHC tells you to worry about it.
Cellbomber
Member
September is the peak of hurricane season so I'd think not really. It's just if the US lucks out on not being hit and thats out of everyone's hands.
I honestly seem to recall very active hurricane seasons in the late 80's and 90's. Sure the size of the storms seem bigger but they did insane amounts of damage back then as well. Who's to say a small compact storm can't do more damage with the same windspeed as a massive spread out storm. I'd think the shape of a smaller compact storm has more intensity overall since there is less gaps/bands. I'm curious if there is research on this?
Outside of the size and better preparedness I don't see much being different now. You don't want in the path of them then or now. It's all around timing and what other weather systems are in the area controlling the path.
Epsilon-delta
Banned
Oh boy, the possibility of another hurricane hitting Florida.
A lot of those are in poor countries where mudslides and the like kill hundreds. You're likely never going to see a storm cause deaths like that in America in this day and age.
But the damage in terms of economic from Harvey/Irma is already coming close to what we saw in 2005. Another major hurricane hitting the US and 2017 very likely will top 2005 in terms of cost.
Yeah, but afaik, most of the damage from Harvey and Irma comes from people building stuff without thinking about hurricanes. Tampa, for example.
...that's probably going to change after this year.
TarpitCarnivore
Member
You say that but a lot of houses still sit on low lying sandbars along the jersey shore. All insurance agencies did was demand they raise foundation a minimum of 8 feet.
TD15 is born and not on a very good track. Long range models have it tracking toward the US coast with landfalls between Florida and the Carolinas.
If this comes our way it's quite possible that we'd be hit before half of the island has power restored and while 30% of people (or more) are still fixing their roofs.
We would have absolutely no way to prepare for this, it's the rain that would get us. That said it's too far away to worry about for now, and puerto rico could kill it if it's small. But man, please no more of this...
Omega Kirby
Member
Damn, what are the chances of tropical depression 15 turning into a hurricane? Going straight through the already fucked up leeward islands and Puerto Rico.
Wafflecakes
Member
Man, that sucks hard for Puerto Rico.
perfectchaos007
Member
Oh shit. Relix be safe!
Panthalassic
Member
That track is so fucked up 
Agent_Carnage
Member
Oh jeeze not again...
CraigerGamer
Member
andrew sort of follows your theory though Irma was the acception. Andrew was a small compact storm that packed an amazing punch.
I've never been sold on Jose hitting the East Coast. The upper levels never looked good enough to force the storm back west or due north.
Maria and depression 15 look interesting in the future for the East Coast. The 500mb looks packed, but all of that is 10 days away.
I advise for those on the coasts to keep an eye on the track.
Maria and depression 15 look interesting in the future for the East Coast. The 500mb looks packed, but all of that is 10 days away.
I advise for those on the coasts to keep an eye on the track.
It likely won't be anything.
If anything it'll be a Montauk and Nantucket special with some high winds and light rain for Boston and NY.
Yup. Note I said literally worst case scenario it'd be a weak Cat 1, but most likely won't be shit.
And yet of course the local news is STILL acting like we're totally fucked.
It's a slow news week.
Omega Kirby
Member
Welp there she is, Maria. Coming straight at us this time
BattleMonkey
Member
Glad I didn't take my shutters down
So here we go again. Hurricane watches for the Leeward islands. Most recent official NHC forecast also has Maria hitting PR as a major Cat 3 hurricane. People there need to watch and listen to the NHC closely.
Went two and a half days without power, a week without cable/internet/cel service...friends of mine are still without power.
Would prefer to not deal with it again for a while, just saying...
butzopower
proud of his butz
Supposed to fly from Boston to NYC on Wednesday night, what's the likelihood of being affected?
Fuck. I coasted Irma in the NW side of the island just chilled outside while watching the tropical storm winds roar, close to hurricane I am guessing, but this one could exit right over where I live. Eek.
Hahaha. Oh God I hadn't seen a straight line to PR in years. And from a major! I love hurricanes but Irma was enough for one season, I don't want a landfalling major. Hell there are still people with no power in the island. Next year I am making the damn hurricane season thread again, just in case not making it this year caused the weather to unbalance.
Latest guidance I saw from 2 hours ago now has this barely impacting the upper Cape, so i doubt Boston will feel anything. NYC is not even going to get clouds.
Smiles and Cries
Member
So Jose might miss but Maria has a sick ass path smh
