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February 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, March 7th
Unknown?
Member
Exactly! I know a lot of casual gamers who don't even know what the Pro is and that's been out for months! These same people have never even heard of Scorpio. It only really effects people who are more serious and visit gaming websites.
Relax it was just one person
Dash_Riprock
Member
You KNOW its bad when all they talk about is hours played...
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah.
get2sammyb
Member
There's a definite bubble on GAF that I think we're all guilty of at times. You're absolutely right that outside of the very hardcore circles the majority won't even be aware of it.
PS4 Pro, too.
CosmicQueso
Member
Yes. Scorpio has likely impacted the sales curve, however slightly, for the Xbox One. It's not why the PS4 won the month, it's not some excuse for disappointing sales. It's just one of many factors impacting the market.
It's been publicly announced, to release later this year, the people at MS keep talking about it, and there's still a lot of uncertainty about what it is and how much it will cost.
You also have a soft release slate this year, especially when compared to PS4, and the launch of the Switch in March.
All of these things impacted sales in the month, for all gaming, just as similar factors come into play in other months.
You don't need to freak out about it.
Oh, and delayed tax refunds to the list...
It's been publicly announced, to release later this year, the people at MS keep talking about it, and there's still a lot of uncertainty about what it is and how much it will cost.
You also have a soft release slate this year, especially when compared to PS4, and the launch of the Switch in March.
All of these things impacted sales in the month, for all gaming, just as similar factors come into play in other months.
You don't need to freak out about it.
Oh, and delayed tax refunds to the list...
CosmicQueso
Member
The cheapest versions aren't even leading in sales now.
And just because "many have said it" doesn't make it right.
The pro has been outselling the slim? :O
Or maybe I'm not getting what you mean to say.
CosmicQueso
Member
There are cheaper versions of the hw than the Slim and the S still on shelves, but Slim and S are leading in sales.
Yes, a very small number, sure. And no more of the old versions of the hw are being made. A small number, just like the impact of Scorpio on Xbox One sales. Small.
I had no idea there were cheaper SKUs than the Slim and S.
The only options cheaper I've seen are pre-owned consoles or refurbished consoles whenever I check Amazon or Gamestop, and I don't think there's any way for us to properly track those. The only other thing I can think of is the old Xbox and PS4 SKUs that might still be left in some stores somehow and have a discount, but I'm not sure that's a fair comparison either cause those are not widely available in every retailer anymore.
Saw your edit now:
Well my original point was that Scorpio being more expensive meant the cheaper One S would be the best selling version of the console by a considerable margin. Same with the Slim vs Pro.
I mean technically you are right, the discontinued or refurbished versions of the consoles might be cheaper and sell less lol.
that's exactly right and obvious
Obliterator
Member
NPD threads sure aren't what they used to be. Such a shame
AstroNut325
Member
Ditto. Really miss the gifs.
CosmicQueso
Member
The Osborne Effect is a real thing. I think it's in play for the Xbox One right now. If you disagree, then make an argument beyond "it's obvious" please.
That's for sure.
That's for sure.
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
I believe this is true. I was at target not long ago talking to a employee in the games department who happened to be a big Xbox fan he told me when I bought my copy of forza 6. I asked him if he was getting the Scorpio and he said what's that?. I told him it's new upgraded Xbox one and he was shocked. He had no idea what it was before I told him.
PS4 #1. That means it sold at least one console guys. Otherwise, it could only be tied for #1
. You guys saying there are no numbers. Sheesh! Maybe the Daylight Savings Time version PR of the February release will have a better range than > 0, though. Have hope!
ignoring returns during the month
I mean to be fair, a lot of retail workers have no idea about a lot of stuff. I can even go to gamestop and people will be clueless about certain things
MS is SHOOK!
FinaruDensetsu
Member
What was Xbox One's number for March 2016?
242k IIRC
The competition has better games.
ForkNetwork
Banned
I remember those days fondly, I guess all of our leakers couldnt risk it anymoreCosmicQueso
Member
Listed in the post that also included the Scorpio bit, and other factors.
Really don't know why I waste my time in these threads anymore.
PS4 won November too.
Well, looking at YOY, XB1 has been up since the XB1S in August except for November and maybe this month. You could definitely make the argument that it'd be up higher YOY without the Scoprio announcement, of course, as more of the hardcore fans would've jumped on S instead of waiting for Scorpio. Some definitely are, but it would seem to be subjective how significant that amount is without some kind of polling data. Not saying it's just the S. Price being consistently low ($200-$250 after extra controllers, gift cards, etc.) has certainly helped a lot. Some like the fact it's an UHD player, but that kind of high-end A/V caring core traditionally isn't too big. Price has always been a big factor, though.
I'd say that if you are looking at it as the heavy core XB1 fan is waiting for Scorpio, which lessens direct sales and also word-of-mouth of XB1s sales, then there'd be a noticeable impact. Just not sure if that's particularly quantifiable.
You're right.
So then it's:
Microsoft: July, August, September, October
Sony: November, December, January, February.
Nice!
MisterR
Member
That just proves his point.
No tides have turned.
Indeed.
wapplew
Member
YoY up the number of winning months. Not turned yet, but improving.
Hydrargyrus
Member
Congrats to Sony!
I hope this month we get the numbers...
I hope this month we get the numbers...
This gen is closer between Sony/Microsoft than any previous gen. Homogenization of the consoles? Increasing/decreasing/steadying brand power?
One of the graphs I often do is the lead of PS4 over XB1 as a percentage of XB1 userbase. This graph then shows relatively how PS4 has been ahead of XB1. Since November 2014, the range has only been 8-15%. That means the closest XB1 has been to PS4 since Nov-2014 is 8% of XB1's LTD sales, and the farthest it's been from PS4 in that timeframe is 15% of XB1's LTD sales (at the month of measurement). (Currently, it's at 11% diff, btw.) PS4 is exceedingly unlikely to lose the U.S. to XB1 this gen. Likewise, XB1 is exceedingly unlikely to fall particularly fall behind PS4 in the U.S., this gen. Still, it's been very unique to see these two manufacturers so very close as they have been this gen.
Short point, praising monthly victories in a warring sense should be passe by now. As I have been recently advised, though, "should" is usually a faulty position to take on matters. :lol
One of the graphs I often do is the lead of PS4 over XB1 as a percentage of XB1 userbase. This graph then shows relatively how PS4 has been ahead of XB1. Since November 2014, the range has only been 8-15%. That means the closest XB1 has been to PS4 since Nov-2014 is 8% of XB1's LTD sales, and the farthest it's been from PS4 in that timeframe is 15% of XB1's LTD sales (at the month of measurement). (Currently, it's at 11% diff, btw.) PS4 is exceedingly unlikely to lose the U.S. to XB1 this gen. Likewise, XB1 is exceedingly unlikely to fall particularly fall behind PS4 in the U.S., this gen. Still, it's been very unique to see these two manufacturers so very close as they have been this gen.
Short point, praising monthly victories in a warring sense should be passe by now. As I have been recently advised, though, "should" is usually a faulty position to take on matters. :lol
Well I can't speak for everyone but I know at least some of us appreciate your input... But yea NPD threads are a mere shadow of what they used to be. Feels bad man.
I'd have to know what the Osborne Effect is to disagree. Somebody enlighten a pleb? :/
Square Triangle
Member
Announcing a product like the Scorpio and misjudging the fact that it would affect the sales of the Xbox One.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I think this is gonna be my last active month in NPD threads, its just not what it used to be anymore.
I'll just casually pop in for Abdiel's posts.
I'll just casually pop in for Abdiel's posts.
Liabe Brave
Member
My personal feeling is that those factors, while they may have effect, don't tell the whole story. If we look at other regions, the companies aren't necessarily close (non-NPD areas are further apart this gen than last, etc.). So it seems there's not an overall trend driving specifically toward closer performance.
With multiple outcomes, we'll need different explanations for each region to cover the specifics. But I think a principal component analysis would find just general increase in customer desire for Sony's product explains a lot (though not all) of the difference. Sony was far ahead in Japan; now they're very far ahead. Sony was far behind in the U.S.; now they're barely ahead. And so on.
Of course, that doesn't say why consumers have an increased desire for the Sony machine. For that more difficult question, brand power is a very plausible part of the answer. But homogenization doesn't seem to be playing much of a role, since we'd expect that to reduce gen-to-gen differences.
EDITED to remove the (unintended) condescending tone, and clarify my point.
Do we know margin of win for this month?
Savantcore
Unconfirmed Member
So was this just the NPD thread? Man I miss the drama
53.4m sold through as of Jan 1.
ethomaz
Banned
PS4 probably sold about 700-800k in Jan and 900-1000k in Feb.
I will say at least 55 million sold WW.
CosmicQueso
Member
It's a pretty fascinating case study in tech history.
One may disagree that this is what's happening. But "herpderp sony has moar better gamez" probably isn't the only thing going on in the market.
ethomaz
Banned
While I believe the lack games and the Scorpio plays a good role in XB1 sales...
In normal conditions I expect PS4 just to sell more in February... since 2013 I don't see how XB1 can sell more than PS4 in US... the demand is bigger for PS4 than XB1.
I don't think Scorpio will change that... it is possible the demand for Scorpio be bigger than Pro but PS4 will still have more demand.