[PS4] 395K
[XB1] 289K
Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of January and February. This is a simple month to month comparison as both January and February have 4 weeks (except for the off year where January is 5 weeks) I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for February to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
As I have stated last month, there will be no Nintendo comparison until after Switch launches.
Code:
2011
Xbox 360 January: 381K / 4 = 95,250
Xbox 360 February: 535K / 4 = 133,750
Weekly average up 40%
PS3 January: 267K / 4 = 66,750
PS3 February: 403K / 4 = 100,750
Weekly average up 51%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tax Returns
[u]PS3[/u]
Tax Returns
Killzone 3 [1 week] [279.9K]
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 January: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 February: 426K / 4 = 106,500
Weekly average up 58%
PS3 January: 195K / 4 = 48,750
PS3 February: 347K / 4 = 86,750
Weekly average up 78%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tax Returns
Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]
[u]PS3[/u]
Tax Returns
Twisted Metal [2 weeks] [221K]
Final Fantasy XIII-2 [4 weeks]
SoulCalibur V [4 weeks]
Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning [3 weeks]
UFC Undisputed 3 [2 weeks]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 January: 281K / 5 = 56,200
Xbox 360 February: 302K / 4 = 75,500
Weekly average up 34%
PS3 January: 201K / 5 = 40,200
PS3 February: 262K / 4 = 65,500
Weekly average up 63%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>70k]
[u]PS3[/u]
Tax Returns
Dead Space 3 [4 weeks]
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time [4 weeks]
Aliens: Colonial Marines [3 weeks]
Crysis 3 [2 weeks]
Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance [2 weeks] [>130k]
Code:
2014
Xbox 360 January: 48K / 4 = 12,000
Xbox 360 February: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Weekly average up 138%
Xbox One January: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Xbox One February: 258K / 4 = 64,500
Weekly average up 80%
PS3 January: 54K / 4 = 13,500
PS3 February: 102K / 4 = 25,500
Weekly average up 89%
PS4 January: 271K / 4 = 67,750
PS4 February: 269K / 4 = 67,250
Weekly average down 1%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
[u]PS4[/u]
Tax Returns
Supply constrained: Demand > Supply
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
[u]PS3[/u]
Tax Returns
The LEGO Movie Videogame [4 weeks]
Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII [3 weeks]
Thief [1 week]
Code:
2015
Xbox 360 January: 39K / 4 = 9,750
Xbox 360 February: 68K / 4 = 17,000
Weekly average up 74%
Xbox One January: 150K / 4 = 37,500
Xbox One February: 276K / 4 = 69,000
Weekly average up 84%
PS3 January: 34K / 4 = 8,500
PS3 February: 65K / 4 = 16,250
Weekly average up 91%
PS4 January: 189K / 4 = 47,250
PS4 February: 342K / 4 = 85,500
Weekly average up 81%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
[u]PS4[/u]
Tax Returns
Evolve [3 weeks]
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Tax Returns
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
[u]PS3[/u]
Tax Returns
Dragon Ball: Xenoverse [1 week]
Code:
2016
360/PS3 = Basically dead and no data leaked for January
Xbox One January: 132K / 4 = 33,000
Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Weekly average up 88%
PS4 January: 230K / 4 = 57,500
PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
Weekly average up 76%
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Tax Returns
Name Your Game 500GB Bundle $349 [Forza 6/Tomb Raider/Gears UE/Rare Replay] [3 weeks]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [157K
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<97K]]
[u]PS4[/u]
Tax Returns
Far Cry Primal 1TB bundle $399 [1 week]
Street Fighter V [2 weeks] [~207K]
Far Cry Primal [1 week] [206K]
Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 [3 weeks] [<193K]
Code:
2017 January Weekly Averages (Calculated from here - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=231192291&postcount=58
PS4: 211K / 4 = 52,750
Xbox One: 157K / 4 = 39,250
Code:
Notable Events in February
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Tax Returns
Price Cut $50 February 17th - February 25th [2 weeks / 9 days]
Forza Horizon 3 500GB bundle $299 [3 weeks]
Halo Wars 2: Ultimate Edition 1TB bundle $349 [2 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Halo Wars 2 [1 week]
[u]PS4[/u]
Tax Returns
PS4 Slim 500GB Price Cut $50 February 12th - February 25th [2 weeks / 14 days]
Call of Duty Infinite Warfare Deluxe Edition Glacier White 500GB Bundle $299 [Walmart] [3 weeks]
Nioh [3 weeks]
For Honor [2 weeks]
Notes:
From one of the slowest months of the year to the biggest non holiday month of the year, February is a massive improvement over January, almost doubling sales. This is mainly thanks to tax returns.
Xbox
The Xbox 360 rose an average of 69%, with a minimum of 34% (2013) and maximum of 138% (2014). Remove 2014 which appears to be an anomaly and the Xbox 360 rose an average of 52%.
The Xbox One has had strong surges in February compared to the massive drops in January from December. February 2014 showed a massive turnaround from the weak sales in January. 2015 benefited from a late January price cut back to $349, and 2016 had the launch of the Name Your Game bundle where you could choose either Forza 6, Rise of the Tomb Raider, Gears of War Ultimate Edition, or Rare Replay at $349. 2017 has the launch of the $299 Forza Horizon 3 and the $349 Halo Wars 2 bundles.
Last month I noted each January for the Xbox One had a worse drop than the last (besides this year), every February has seen a bigger jump than the last, averaging a raise of 84%, with a minimum of 80% (2014) and maximum of 88% (2016).
What I have found interesting is the percentage drop in January from December to the rise in February over the past few years.
2013 December to 2014 January drop: -80%
2014 January to 2014 February rise: +80%
2014 December to 2015 January drop: -86%
2015 January to 2015 February rise: +84%
2015 December to 2016 January drop: -88%
2016 January to 2016 February rise: +88%
Weird coincidence, or actual correlation?!
Playstation
The PS3 rose an average 74% with a minimum of 51% (2011) and maximum of 91% (2015).
PS4 has a pretty clear outlier in 2014 as there were stock shortages for holiday 2013 and early 2014. Sales actually fell in February 2014 compared to every other console seeing a boost. 2015 had a much more reasonable 81% increase and 2016 increased 76%.
This February is the first time the PS4 has received a temporary price drop and it is to $249. This should guarantee a massive boost in sales.
Recap
February is the third strongest selling month of the year behind November and December. A massive, almost doubling of sales from January.
The biggest February ever recorded back in the 7th was the Wii with 753,000 back in 2009. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 535,000 in 2011.
The biggest February ever recorded in the 8th is the PS4 with 404,900 in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 again with 342,000 in 2015.