RespectThySole
Member
[PS4] 220K
[XB1] 195K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 195K
[3DS] 80K
[WIU] 55K
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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
freefornow
Member
[PS4] 227K
[XB1] 191K
[3DS] 74K
[WIU] 43K
[XB1] 191K
[3DS] 74K
[WIU] 43K
It seems a slow january.
Aquamarine
Member
5 more days until the NPD release.
And two more days to predict.
And two more days to predict.
AstuteClass
Banned
I think people are predicting the PS4 and X1 to be way too close. I think there'll be an 80k difference.
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 90k
[PS4] 185k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 145k
[PS4] 185k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 145k
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Rather subdued prediction thread. Guess it is a combination of it being one of the slowest months and Xbox One pretty much losing all momentum after raising the price back temporarily.
Sangetsu-II
Member
[PS4] 230K
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 87K
[WIU] 60K
On another note, can't believe The Order is coming out in less than 2 weeks. Time passes so fast doesn't it? Hope it sells well.
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 87K
[WIU] 60K
On another note, can't believe The Order is coming out in less than 2 weeks. Time passes so fast doesn't it? Hope it sells well.
Crimson_Gold
Member
[PS4] 255K
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 73K
[WIU] 58K
Let's do this
[XB1] 170K
[3DS] 73K
[WIU] 58K
Let's do this
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
[PS4] 260k
[XB1] 180k
[3DS] 80k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 180k
[3DS] 80k
[WIU] 50k
I honestly think the alpha did more harm than good due to tech problems, and I also question the interest in asymetric online pvp, not only in "classes" but also in numbers (4v1) as too much relies on the skills of 1 player imo.
:shrug:
As for the PS4 doing better than the XB1 on Amazon, I am only surprised at the differential, not that the PS4 is ahead.
After the Holidays, buyers are generally looking with more info than just the cheapest.
I guess the free TLOU and recently PS+/ SoM didn't hurt.
[PS4] 257K
[XB1] 173K
[3DS] 74K
[WIU] 39K
I think the price bump on XB1 is gonna cause a steeper drop off than many are expecting. The raise combined with the lack of the extremely budget minded holiday shoppers is going to hurt them a lot this month. I think WiiU is going to fall of a cliff no that all its major releases are out and little to nothing is known about its upcoming titles. The poor performance during the holidays pretty much cemented a downward trend throughout the year for Nintendo in my opinion with January seeing a massive drop after the holiday rush.
[XB1] 173K
[3DS] 74K
[WIU] 39K
I think the price bump on XB1 is gonna cause a steeper drop off than many are expecting. The raise combined with the lack of the extremely budget minded holiday shoppers is going to hurt them a lot this month. I think WiiU is going to fall of a cliff no that all its major releases are out and little to nothing is known about its upcoming titles. The poor performance during the holidays pretty much cemented a downward trend throughout the year for Nintendo in my opinion with January seeing a massive drop after the holiday rush.
MasterSheen
Member
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 155k
[3DS] 85k
[WIU] 35k
[XB1] 155k
[3DS] 85k
[WIU] 35k
Aquamarine
Member
So Pachter released his January 2015 predictions to clients.
They're quite silly this month, so I want to remind everyone with a friendly Q&A before I post them.
Please read the Q&A before the predictions. Thank you.
Q&A:
Q: "LOL so Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions? Where can I sign up?
A: Actually, Pachter's job is to release complex, thorough, and intelligent company analyses and evaluate whether or not they are a good buy for investors. Pachter primarily focuses around companies in the digital entertainment and retail entertainment sectors, like AMC, Netflix, Amazon, and Nintendo.
Pachter does an amazing job with his frequent, lengthy reports to clients and definitely, 100% deserves every penny Wedbush Securities pays him. There's a reason why Pachter has kept his job all these years.
Pachter frequently discusses video game predictions in mainstream media, and he releases NPD predictions to clients. All of these video game predictions are done FOR FUN, and are in no way related to his core job.
Q: "Should we trust Pachter?"
A: Pachter subscribes to NPD (so he has the full spectrum of historical data available to him), and he conducts a variety of small-scale channel checks in the market.
Basically, Pachter calls up various store managers and asks how the retail market has been doing. He is IN NO WAY an authoritative source of video game sales or an "insider."
We have the same phenomenon here at NeoGAF where people who work in the USA video game retail sector like Abdiel and The Shogun give us sell-through trends.
There is no reason to trust Pachter over any other intelligent GAFfer. He is essentially another NeoGAF poster.
Q: "Should I make a topic about this where we make fun of Pachter ad nauseam?"
A: Unless you're comfortable making an "Aquamarine's JPMorgan Chase NPD Predictions" thread, you shouldn't be comfortable making a "Pachter's NPD Predictions" thread.
If an ignorant website picks up his predictions, please don't parrot them into a new thread.
The level of discourse in new threads diminishes greatly from propagation of Pachter misinformation and mockery. Here is a fantastic example of the low-quality nonsense that rises to the surface when we make dedicated threads:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=911723
Without further ado, here are Pachter's predictions for January 2015:
XB1: 400K
PS4: 325K
WIU: 65K
They're quite silly this month, so I want to remind everyone with a friendly Q&A before I post them.
Please read the Q&A before the predictions. Thank you.
Q&A:
Q: "LOL so Pachter gets paid to make stupid video game predictions? Where can I sign up?
A: Actually, Pachter's job is to release complex, thorough, and intelligent company analyses and evaluate whether or not they are a good buy for investors. Pachter primarily focuses around companies in the digital entertainment and retail entertainment sectors, like AMC, Netflix, Amazon, and Nintendo.
Pachter does an amazing job with his frequent, lengthy reports to clients and definitely, 100% deserves every penny Wedbush Securities pays him. There's a reason why Pachter has kept his job all these years.
Pachter frequently discusses video game predictions in mainstream media, and he releases NPD predictions to clients. All of these video game predictions are done FOR FUN, and are in no way related to his core job.
Q: "Should we trust Pachter?"
A: Pachter subscribes to NPD (so he has the full spectrum of historical data available to him), and he conducts a variety of small-scale channel checks in the market.
Basically, Pachter calls up various store managers and asks how the retail market has been doing. He is IN NO WAY an authoritative source of video game sales or an "insider."
We have the same phenomenon here at NeoGAF where people who work in the USA video game retail sector like Abdiel and The Shogun give us sell-through trends.
There is no reason to trust Pachter over any other intelligent GAFfer. He is essentially another NeoGAF poster.
Q: "Should I make a topic about this where we make fun of Pachter ad nauseam?"
A: Unless you're comfortable making an "Aquamarine's JPMorgan Chase NPD Predictions" thread, you shouldn't be comfortable making a "Pachter's NPD Predictions" thread.
If an ignorant website picks up his predictions, please don't parrot them into a new thread.
The level of discourse in new threads diminishes greatly from propagation of Pachter misinformation and mockery. Here is a fantastic example of the low-quality nonsense that rises to the surface when we make dedicated threads:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=911723
Without further ado, here are Pachter's predictions for January 2015:
XB1: 400K
PS4: 325K
WIU: 65K
Crimson_Gold
Member
Pachter's numbers definitely seem high for bother the PS4 and the Xbox. The Wii U number is completely believable
Why is it everytime hes made a ridiculous prediction this gen it has XB1 massively outperforming everyone else's projections? Before it was the Destiny Debacle in September which he argued was due to the bundling of a free game and now he is doing the same in January a month where XB1 actually raised it's price for most of the month. Makes no sense.
theprodigy
Member
Now opening predictions on when someone ignores/doesn't read this and makes a thread on it anyway
1st Course
Member
300k+ for both PS4 and XBO? Way too high, if anything they will be hovering around 200K.
plasmawave
Banned
KenPokesBarbie
Banned
[PS4] 255K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 85k
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 175K
[3DS] 85k
[WIU] 50K
Oh, so he purposely predicts "for fun".
Aquamarine
Member
I give it a day.
Do you really think his clients care about his NPD predictions?
Of course not. It's a supplement to his real work.
Nobody requires him to do it...Pachter just likes going the extra mile because he's emotionally invested in video game retail, like many of us here on GAF.
Another reason why he's still employed at Wedbush.
AstuteClass
Banned
I don't get it. I really don't.
I've not got the experience he has in analysis and business modelling, etc, but when the biggest web store in the country shows the PS4 consistently having outsold the X1 all month, and the fact that a win for either one on that web store has translated to an NPD win every single time... even I can tell the X1 hasn't won.
Anyway, why is it Amazon hasn't restocked the ACU bundle? Only third party sellers are selling it right now.
MS prepping for another one?
I've not got the experience he has in analysis and business modelling, etc, but when the biggest web store in the country shows the PS4 consistently having outsold the X1 all month, and the fact that a win for either one on that web store has translated to an NPD win every single time... even I can tell the X1 hasn't won.
Anyway, why is it Amazon hasn't restocked the ACU bundle? Only third party sellers are selling it right now.
MS prepping for another one?
Even though Amazon is pretty big, the numbers they contribute to NPD numbers are pretty small.
Trends.
It has yet to be wrong predicting NPD I think (the general trend for the month that is).
I'm fully aware of the trends, but from Pachter's perspective since he has full access to NPD reports he probably ignores Amazon's Best Sellers list based on that fact.
He was very wrong about September 2014 NPD. I wouldn't pay too much attention to his predictions.
The AC bundle is in stock. Amazon usually advertises the cheaper price first. You have to go to all the buying options-
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00NFXON1Q/?tag=neogaf0e-20
Yeah i agree he probably doesn't give Amazon a thought. What percentage of NPD do they cover again?
EDIT-
Oh VVVVV
Aquamarine
Member
Actually....Pachter collates the top-selling video games from Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Gamestop in his predictions.
Which makes the fact that his predictions are contrary to Amazon even more ridiculous.
It could be he puts more weight into his retail contacts of Wal-Mart and Gamestop who offer a different picture (which may or may not be accurate). I don't know...
1970 Chevelle SS
Neo Member
I really hope he doesn't quit his day job.
Aquamarine
Member
~5-6%, more for niche titles
FF Seraphim
Member
Woah... I would be surprised if either of them sold 300k+ in hardware for the month of January. Unless this drop in fuel price across the nation caused everyone to want to buy videogames...
metalslimer
Member
[PS4] 237K
[XB1] 189K
[3DS] 79K
[WIU] 51K
Part of me thinks that many people didn't know the new 3DS was launching for a good bit of the month. I'm also not entirely sure how the 199 new 3DS XL is even going to do anyway.
[XB1] 189K
[3DS] 79K
[WIU] 51K
Part of me thinks that many people didn't know the new 3DS was launching for a good bit of the month. I'm also not entirely sure how the 199 new 3DS XL is even going to do anyway.
AstuteClass
Banned
You missed the point. I'm not saying Amazon's numbers contribute the most sales. I'm saying their best sellers list has been 1:1 with every NPD result, in terms of who sold the most overall.
Welfare
Member
That XB1 number is higher than any January the 360 had. PS4 number is also ridiculously high.
Wii U looks normal lol
Why do you all think PS4 is gonna beat Xbone this month? Since the price-cut Xbone has been winning 2 month in a row, in january they'd raised the price up again to 399$ but just for a week, it came back to 349$ quickly, so i guess the trend could easily continue with Xbone outsell PS4 again in the USA at least.
Okay, my mistake. You described them as the biggest web store (which they are) so I thought that you expected that actually has more of a bearing on NPD than one might expect compared to other retailers.
It just so happens their 6% contribution has fallen in line with XB1/PS4 ranking trends but I was trying to reason why Pachter may not put incredible weight into that 6%.
A combination of Amazon rankings which has been a good predictor and some retail impressions that seem consistent with it.