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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Thanks for confirming.
PS2 is PS2 tbh.
The fact that 360 didn't hit 400k at all shows me how optimistic this prediction is. Not saying it's impossible, just very very high and personally I don't see it happening.
slavesnyder
Member
Thank for this answer. First of all: i like this chap. He is not only smart and knows games, but he also never backs up from saying unpopular stuff. I like that.
Of course he is doing these predictions just for fun, but nevertheless i cannot believe that someone with his experience and knowledge (and internet) can be so clueless...
And, not least, he has a sense of humor. And posting these numbers by himself would be like explaining a joke. Not funny.
He knows that enough people on gaf care about him and his statements, so he can be sure that he will be mentioned. And that's perfectly fine. He even mentioned you once on gametrailers (good at maths" or something). And that was nice of him.
So, just now he might be sitting there with a nice mug of coffee and smiling about the kids, grampa pach.
slavesnyder
Member
The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
Not really going to relevant until next month but any idea of how Final Fantasy Type-0 HD is doing?
Aquamarine
Member
small44
Member
I'm excited it's the first time i predict NPD result
Sangetsu-II
Member
Me too!
I concur. I've always liked Pachter, he looks like exactly the kind of guy with whom I'd enjoy drinking a few IPAs and talking crap about video games, business, politics and whatnot. Therefore I am a bit disappointed, when I see predictions that must be way off the mark.
I'd hate to call him biased, but this is at least the third time I remember him showing this kind of optimism for Xbox One. First one was a year ago, when he said in an episode of Bonus Round, that MS will drop Kinect (correct) to bring price down to PS4 level (also correct) and that this will result in them selling as well as (or was it even better than) PS4. The problem with Xbox image was well known at the time, and while pulling even in the US was certainly a possibility, globally nobody believed in Microsoft's chances.
Of course, in the bigger picture Xbox sales don't amount to a hill of beans. They are hardly a rounding error in MS corporate results, so it's not like his clients are losing any money because of these weird predictions. I just find it curious.
joostvandreunen
Superdata
[3DS] 75K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 300K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 300K
Was just browsing Amazon top sellers after reading some of your posts. Popped onto .uk to see where PS4 and XB1 are at and they are very low now. Not saying I'm surprised, just interesting.
The bundles you can get is also a little nuts. XB1 is "bundurus everywhere" whilst PS4 is like "just buy the console". Not sure if there is anything to read into? Maybe just nothing.
XB1
PS4
Yes, both are low, especially Xbone. Black PS4 around 50th place, white PS4 around 95th, but Xbone is not even in top 100.
It's hard to gauge though 20 XB1 bundles below 100 all added together may equal 2 PS4 bundles in the top 100. I'm annoyed at M$ for making it hard for me to follow their sales
FunkyPajamas
Member
I love it.
Dedication Through Light
Member
[3DS] 240K
[PS4] 500K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 400K
[PS4] 500K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 400K
Aquamarine
Member
It's almost here...
And last chance to predict, guys. Only two and a half hours until predictions close for good.
Pinkman_ABQ
Member
[3DS] 97K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 72K
[XB1] 174K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 72K
[XB1] 174K
Gbpackers31
Member
[3DS] 80k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 185k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 185k
The Last One
Member
[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 190k
[PS4] 260k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 190k
Aquamarine
Member
No more predictions after this post will be counted.
That's it...predictions are now closed.
That's it...predictions are now closed.
The Last One
Member
lol You're right. I almost didn't made it though.
Well, so far, not great, but not miserable. I have to wonder if it will pick up once more people realize it is even coming out. I talk with a lot of people, who don't realize that it is the first JRPG-ish game releasing on the system here in the US for the new systems, let alone the first Final Fantasy title (spinoff or otherwise) releasing on the new systems. PS4 preorders laugh at the XB1 though. Not even close.
Sangetsu-II
Member
That's a given though, don't you think Abdiel?
In terms of my expectations? Yes, I do think it is a given. The customer base for JRPG type experiences are far more likely to follow Sony, from my experiences; however, I've seen some comments on here where people speculate that that impression might be exaggerated or just an assumption.
MS brining the price of the system back up during the first half of last month. Caused some to simply wait (possibly until the Holiday season) to get one since some still think the console's $400. Hurt it more than expected (which is why I'm guessing it went back down to $350 shortly after December NPD).
Can't see the console winning a month this year until August at the earliest; Depends on when the system's exclusives release + what third party game bundles they have planned.
2 weeks of $399 killed off whatever momentum XB1 had. Same trend just going off the Hourly charts.
Aquamarine
Member
The sudden, incredibly stupid decision by Microsoft to raise the MSRP back up to $399.99 had a profound impact on consumer demand.
Consumer demand for video game consoles is quite elastic, so Xbox One demand plummeted to the extent that it completely reversed Xbox One's holiday momentum.
The $349.99 drop 13 days later wasn't enough to compensate for the impact of the stalled momentum.
So naturally, PS4 pulls ahead.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Well people might assume it's exaggerations but just by pointing them to bare sales numbers of past JRPG type games they can clearly see the games always sell better on PlayStation formats, heck I might assume if the game was on Wii U it may sell better than the Xbox One version but that's just my assumption.
Welfare
Member
Late bro.
Aahhh, even here I can't escape my Econ studies!
(This post mainly serves as a subscription to the thread, since I forgot to sub earlier.)
oh, thanx for clearing that up guys. It will be interesting to see how much an impact that had on sales for this month. I'm also curious about software sales, to see if they were affected as well.
I feel like the decision wasn't as sudden as it seems. Not just because they announced it as a temporary price cut - It seems like most of the decisions made by MS regarding the system have come in either too-long delays that cause things to fester a bit, or very impulsively. With the price cut, it seemed inevitable that they'd try and see if they could keep that same momentum even after putting the price back up. And then when it crashed and burned so abruptly, they threw it right back down to try and salvage what they could. Contradictory reactions causing messaging issues and perception problems.
I'm baffled by how badly Microsoft just keeps messing things up. I'm just doing a marketing course, and I've been reading some really basic papers about pricing, and it really looks like I would already be far more proficient at making pricing decisions for Xbox.
The concept of price anchors is probably the most fundamental way of manipulating people, and these jumps from $499 to $399 to $349 (or even $329) and then back to $399 back to $349 within a span of 15 months is really ideal way to confuse anybody paying any attention. By keeping the price at 349 for two months, Microsoft effectively guaranteed that the reservation price (i.e. "The maximum value an individual is willing to pay for a product") has crashed pretty damn close to that. Also, the bundles made consumers expect that they get more for that price point.
You'd have to be insane to imagine that the sales momentum could be continued after you have anchored the price to some level and then jump up from that while dropping the value of the offering. And I don't think that there are studies about the effects of this kind of yo-yo-pricing, since nobody in their right minds does that.
They essentially threw a Hail Mary pass, hoping that they'd have a self-sustained momentum ala PS4 circa 2014.
Not sure what put that idea in their heads, considering the games that came out in January,
Jimmyfenix
Member
We are back to pre season
IIRC, the system was still above the PS4 on sites like Amazon during the first three days of the year. Started changing a lot though when the price went up.
Nightengale
Member
FWIW, it was the last days of the lower price. People who already were looking to buy an XB1 in January, and was price-sensitive would've gotten one in those last few days.