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January 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 10th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I just think at some point when the price went down, The x1 would have increased sales. Yet ps4 continued to lead even after the price drop. I just feel a large portion of The xbox demographic Are teenagers. Simply because it's the brand they grew up with. I personally think that demographic Got their X1's for Christmas.
Not necessarily. There were still people going in stores shortly after the 3rd assuming the price was still $350.
It seemingly did increase a bit; just didn't go over the PS4.
You are right though that a huge portion of people got their consoles for Christmas -- same is true of the PS4. Sales of the XB1 and PS4 for January combined probably won't be half of what the PS4 did in December.
I could also see the average age of Xbox owners being a bit younger than PS4 owners due to system features (PS4 is a bit more of a traditional/straightforward console) and the number of years the brands have been around as you've mentioned.
Nightengale
Member
Regular shop-goers, sure.
One would assume that those who go to Amazon to buy consoles would be more on-touch with those kind of stuff. Me, at least.
slavesnyder
Member
Do not compare yourself with normal people. you are a gaf-member. for that, you are gifted...
Really? Are you forgetting the insane deals MS had? Those are all gone. Then they raised the price back up then changed it again. But it seems PS4 is still selling more.
bananafactory
Banned
X1 rode the price drop/bundle train in Nov and Dec. Many of those bundles are gone now and a lot of people who were on the fence for one jumped in over the holidays, demand seems to have tailed off a bit.
PS4 now has the benefit of two big upcoming exclusives they're promoting heavily, so it's not a stretch to think they'll be back on top for the near future at least.
spatenfloot
Member
Any idea how The Order is doing?
Aquamarine
Member
This is it, guys.
Final stretch.
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jan-2015
1. PS4 - 237K
2. XB1 - 180K
3. 3DS - 81K
4. WIU - 56K
Wonder how much 3DS will go up in February for the n3DSXL release?
Wonder how much it'll drop in March once the launch rush is over (though Easter sales increase, however little that bump is, would be in the March NPD period)?
1. PS4 - 237K
2. XB1 - 180K
3. 3DS - 81K
4. WIU - 56K
Wonder how much 3DS will go up in February for the n3DSXL release?
Wonder how much it'll drop in March once the launch rush is over (though Easter sales increase, however little that bump is, would be in the March NPD period)?
bananafactory
Banned
We had another bish-checked employee say it was tracking very well, roughly on Witcher 3 levels (despite being on only one platform), and much much higher than Bloodborne.
I'll try to dig up the quote
Edit:
From OsirisBlack
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=150843020&postcount=855
Price never went back to $399 on Amazon and actually went down to $329 at the beginning of the month but then this was already covered on the first page
.anexanhume
Member
I think you're caught in the GAF bubble.
Price never went back to $399 on Amazon and actually went down to $329 at the beginning of the month but then this was already covered on the first page
Yes, it did. Was there for 11 days.
bananafactory
Banned
Bloodborne is a pretty niche game, The Order has been getting far more marketing and will appeal more to the shooter crowd, which is a bigger audience.
It's not that surprising.
This. There's a good chance that many outside GAF don't even know what Bloodborne is.
Bloodborne has way less appeal than the Order. Yeah, the Order may get bad press on Neogaf, but it is wayyyy more appealing than the soul series to probably most people.
anexanhume
Member
And Bloodborne didn't have a super bowl commercial. It's gotten basically no advertising outside of the hardcore game locations.
I'd be very curious to see a pre-order curve for big commercial titles vs. niche titles like BB. I'd bet one ramps up a lot more before release than the other, though I can't decide which. I know I haven't pre-ordered BB yet but definitely will sometime in early March.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
It won't be as fast as The Order out of the gate, but it will have legs. Bloody stumps for legs, but it will still have them.
It won't flop.
DustyVonEric
Member
Haha!!! My thoughts exactly!
BB better not bomb. I want more Souls experimentation and spin-offs to go with my steady helping of Dark Souls, which is a sure thing.
Don't make the mistake of thinking NeoGAF represents the general gaming market, if it did, Bayonetta 2 and other titles would be top sellers. We are the hardcore, we get hyped for games the vast majority of gamers have never heard of, look at the Persona 5 thread for example, over 100 pages. I'm a GAF member, and I'd never even heard of the series until a couple of months ago lol
Aquamarine
Member
Never mind.
bananafactory
Banned
I think they mean that the XB1 could be found readily at $349 or under via third party sellers on Amazon throughout the end of the price cut.
Imo, the return to the regular $399 might have "stopped the momentum" a bit, but it's also factoring that MS had set a period (up to Jan. 3rd) during which you had to go and buy the console, which possibly made people buy ahead of time as they anticipated the price to go back up at the end of said promo.
Those extra buyers were taken off the pool of buyers you would normally have in Q1 this year.
Other factors:
- ACU is not a hot title anymore
- Current buyers are not swayed by a $50 off and are planning their purchase with other factors in mind (exlcusives, friends...), while during the Holiday buyers often aim for the best "bang for the buck" it seems
- The PS4 now has its own "bonuses": TLOU/ + second game for free (and free PS+ for a bit)
- The XB1 does not have any big exclusive planned any time soon (afaik), whereas the PS4 has two of the biggest it will have this year within Q1
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
fuck, i share the same sentiment as another gaffer in that thread. ill have to buy a second copy of BB. i guess this validates the CE i want to buy for safe keeping since i pre-ordered the digital edition last year.
hopefully though, most sales are digital and sony is focusing on The Order 1886 right now regarding the lack of marketing push which makes sense if this is the reason
Honestly. Bloodborne selling 2-3 million lifetime sales would be pretty good. It's a niche game that has potential to do well mainstream.
The Order also comes out next week. Bloodborne still has a over a month left before Sony starts that marketing blitz.
And I think the word of mouth is what will drive Bloodborne to having longer legs. I can promise you this game will be HUGE on twitch. So we'll see.
The Order also comes out next week. Bloodborne still has a over a month left before Sony starts that marketing blitz.
And I think the word of mouth is what will drive Bloodborne to having longer legs. I can promise you this game will be HUGE on twitch. So we'll see.
The speed running community alone will keep the game alive well past The Order.
Welfare
Member
Its not just gaf, BB has over a million views for every one of the bigger videos on youtube, and consistently gets in the hundreds of thousands for even the smaller segments. Yeah youtube isnt an indicator of sales, but i've seen hype way beyond gaf for that title
Jimmyfenix
Member
Europe Bloodborne bundle was very smart from SCEE
Also It is coming out in a good time in japan
Also It is coming out in a good time in japan
The Shogun
Banned
The Order has more reserves than Bloodborne yes.
Welp. Guess that's that. What a buzzkill
The Shogun
Banned
Keep in mind The Order is also closer to launch though. Bloodborne needs a marketing push before launch that may help.
Hmm
Man-is-Obsolete
Member
This. Bloodborne's best days are ahead of it still. It will get a March almost all to itself, twitch streams, and word of mouth will all be great.
Go on...
StrongBlackVine
Banned
It is not a megahit, lowest common denominator mainstream game , but it's popularity is much than stuff like Bayonetta or Metal Gear Rising. Bloodborne videos get tons of hits on YouTube.
Is a game that will sell probably 2 to 3 million copies really niche? Says a lot about the industry expectations if so.
Welfare
Member
You have no idea if the game will sell that much. On 3 different systems Dark Souls 1 sold over 2.3 million copies and Dark Souls 2 sold 1.2 million copies back in April. Bloodeborne isn't going to sell as much as 3 million units.
go on...
bananafactory
Banned
Dark Souls 2 only sold 1.2 million units on PS3/360/PC? A userbase of 200 million?
God damn.
Yeah Bloodborne will be lucky to hit 500k if that's the case.
Given the amount of replayability I expect from Bloodbourne, the online, and co-op, I could also see a LOT of people going digital for this title as they would plan to keep this on the system easily accessible with being 1 click away
I know I'm generally buying physical but for Bloodborne I'm considering going Digital.
Jimmyfenix
Member
I think Sony knows what to expect from a souls like game.
The Order seems like it will shock people commercially if the pre order numbers are true
The Order seems like it will shock people commercially if the pre order numbers are true
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Demon's Souls did at least 740K on just PS3 in the US and Japan with hardly any marketing or hype. So yeah Bloodborne doing worse than that is unlikely.
anexanhume
Member
Bloodborne in Japan is a huge question mark though. The userbase there is just now creeping past 1M total.
1.2 million in a 3 week span from it's launch. 3 million by the end of 2014 is possible.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Only 230K of that was from Japan. Increased recognition of the brand in the other countries(especially those in Europe) should mitigate that. Demon's did very poorly there and I think Bloodborne improves on that. Don't see it doing worse than Demon's.
anexanhume
Member
Did EU do very poor for Demon's at launch?