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[Sammy Samusu]

PS4closure doing work.

I still think it's going to be the best selling system this year, and it will easily beat PS3's best selling year in Japan too.

 

[Eolz]

I still see the 3DS being the best selling system (not by much), even with an eventual late/fall 2016 NX handheld release.

 

[horuhe]

Rakuten Daily Chart (2016.02.10)

01./00. [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final <RPG> (Atlus)
02./00. [PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered <SLG> (Sega)
03./01. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
04./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter X <ACT> (Capcom)
05./07. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games)
06./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
07./10. [WiiU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
08./03. [PS3] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
09./05. [WiiU] Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash <SPT> (Nintendo)
10./13. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)

* 60k for SMTIVF and 10k for VCR are expected during this first day.

 

[Nyoro SF]

Rakuten Daily Chart (2016.02.10)

01./00. [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final <RPG> (Atlus)
02./00. [PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered <SLG> (Sega)
03./01. [PSV] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
04./04. [3DS] Monster Hunter X <ACT> (Capcom)
05./07. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games)
06./02. [PS4] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
07./10. [WiiU] Splatoon <ACT> (Nintendo)
08./03. [PS3] Dragon Quest Builders <ADV> (Square Enix)
09./05. [WiiU] Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash <SPT> (Nintendo)
10./13. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch Busters: White Dog Squad <ACT> (Level 5)

* 60k for SMTIVF and 10k for VCR are expected during this first day.

10k... well, that's not totally unexpected.
That means they've really limited their Azure Revolution demo feedback population though. I feel like they're trying to imitate successful betas and doing a pretty awful job of it. Like they're 15 years behind.

 

[Vena]

Now to question if we're even going to get to that 20k...

 

[crinale]

SMT4 Final seems to be received well (better than the original) buy early buyers so it may effect the sales positively (it did for DQ Builders too), in the long term at least.

 

[Dash Kappei]

The reason ?

Spoiler

Feb.25 :

I have it on my wishlist and I'm debating if I should place an order this week but I'm kinda scared it'll get an Overkill-kinda release on PS4 later like they also did for Caladrius with Blaze (Blaze/IV Overkill kinda rendered the vanilla releases useless and this Raiden V ain't cheap to import as usual), although Moss are supposedly doing a bunch of cool things with Azure/MS Cloud and the jury's still out if those features can be easily replicated on Sony's console but maybe they can do it for the (probably coming down the road) PC port.
I wish One would at least get Cave's release as BC titles, but my hopes are slim.

 

[Pancake Mix]

PS4 steady at over 30k. Hang in there, the titans are coming, including FFXV this year. DQ may be larger, but it's expected later and has a 3DS version which Japan will probably take to.

This situation is ridiculous.

WII U's been a failure in sales all around the world, and now there's not stock in the only territory that had "it's not so bad" to "ok" to "this is somewhat good" sales.

Nintendo kicking itself in the butt, thanks to region locking.

Spoiler

Somebody page cheesemeister3k

Despite the success of Splatoon in Japan the Americas is by a decent margin the #1 region for Wii U sales overall and it's been over three years. That region will receive the lion's share of shipments.

 

[hiska-kun]

As I said before, today February 11th is a national holiday in Japan. Last year some games increased sales. We can expect the same this year, with similar games:

Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2015 (Feb 09 - Feb 15)

08./05. [3DS] Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2014.11.21} (¥4.937) - 12.922 / 2.513.921 (+6%)
10./10. [3DS] Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.09.13} (¥5.616) - 9.532 / 2.149.794 (+7%)
18./15. [WIU] Super Smash Bros. for Wii U # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2014.12.06} (¥7.776) - 6.118 / 587.913 (+8%)
20./17. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke <RPG> (Level 5) {2014.07.10} (¥4.937) - 5.226 / 3.103.815 (+9%)
21./16. [WIU] Mario Kart 8 # <RCE> (Nintendo) {2014.05.29} (¥6.156) - 5.222 / 916.489 (+9%)
22./18. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 4.977 / 3.918.824 (+6%)

 

[TreasureHunterG]

Mario Maker and Minecraft are slowing walking into the 1M territory.

 

[hiska-kun]

Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final sold 62% of the shipment and Valkyria Chronicles Remastered 46% in these stores:

http://gekicore-gamelife.com/ranking/13693.html

Note that this isn't the national sell-through, that will be posted tomorrow.

 

[Chris1964]

400k increase would put it around the same numbers as PS3 did during its best years. While not of course ''saving Japan'' numbers those would be in line with home console market since 2009 so I would call them good at least.

Coming close for once to PS3 best years doesn't mean anything long term if it can't repeat these yearly sales, like PS3 did.

PS3 is dead in Japan now, brah. Has been since Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain had been released over there since September 2nd of last year.

Even games like Star Ocean 5 & Persona 5 will sell more on PS4.

If PS3 was dead these and previous games should sell zero copies on PS3.

 

[Pennywise83]

Indeed - platform transition is happening and PS4 is becoming the leading one, but PS3 still has a good chunk of overall sales. DQ Builders sold 15% on PS3; Yakuza Kiwami around 40%.

 

[Chris1964]

There are people who still fail to understand that when there isn't a Vita version PS3 usually gets an big share of software sales. Shrinking as time passes but still very important for Japanese publishers.

 

[L~A]

SMT4 Final seems to be received well (better than the original) buy early buyers so it may effect the sales positively (it did for DQ Builders too), in the long term at least.

From what I've read, SMTIVF really does fix most (all?) of the "issues" players had with the original, so not surprised here (especially since SMTIV already had a positive reception itself).

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Coming close for once to PS3 best years doesn't mean anything long term if it can't repeat these yearly sales, like PS3 did.

Even so, the numbers would still be good.

 

[Darius]

Even so, the numbers would still be good.

no, mediocre at best.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

no, mediocre at best.

Why mediocre?

 

[Darius]

Why mediocre?

Because PS3 sales in Japan aren´t any indication of actual good sales.

 

[notaskwid]

Because PS3 sales in Japan aren´t any indication of actual good sales.

I mean, an actual sales volume of nearly 1/10 of the total population of a country with a sharp decline in demography for what is essentialy a toy are mediocre sales lol.

 

[Darius]

I mean, an actual sales volume of nearly 1/10 of the total population of a country with a sharp decline in demography for what is essentialy a toy are mediocre sales lol.

What? You expect 10m PS4 units sold just this year in Japan? /jk It would be a great start to actually follow a discussion before you chime in, since it´s evident that we were talking about yearly sales and not lifetime sales. Also interesting to note that PS3 barely broke the 10m mark only thanks to an extended lifespan its yearly performance on their own have been even less enticing, and even then, 10m lifetime sales are pretty mediocre in my book regardless.

Anyway most importantly this excuse isn´t convincing at all, considering that Japan bought this gen in just the first two years 10m 3ds units and we actually have a current gen system (namely 3DS) that sold 20m+ units so far with further million units to follow.

 

[test_account]

I mean, an actual sales volume of nearly 1/10 of the total population of a country with a sharp decline in demography for what is essentialy a toy are mediocre sales lol.

It really depends on what you compare it to. No console is ever likely to come close to what the PS1 and PS2 sold, so if comparing it to that, all console sales after PS2 can be put in a "less than good" category. In that case, it saves much discussion at least. However, the market can change, and then the norm also changes. What once were concidered as "not that good" might be concidered as good later on, or vise versa. The NES sold like 6-7 million units in Europe for example, and i guess that was concidered as good back in the days. So it depends on what its being compared to.

 

[1st Course]

via ZhugeEX

BANDAI NAMCO: The Dragon Ball IP is expected to see an increase in revenue across all business segments.

BANDAI NAMCO: As noted, Toy segment will be down this year. YoKai Watch the main reason for the decline.

BANDAI NAMCO: Europe is leading the way in Video Game sales for the company. Thanks to 'The Witcher 3' & others.

Total software sales are expected to grow in Europe & America, offset the decline seen in Japan. Total 25.7m for full FY vs 21.7m last year

Bandai Namco doing really well in western markets lately. Witcher 3 certainly helped driving sales in Europe but notice that they made big gains in the U.S too (where they didn't publish Witcher). The growth in U.S was probably driven primarily by Dark Souls 2 and Dragon Ball Xenoverse.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Here is the situation about PS4, PS3 and GC after 104 weeks :

GC : 2.391.903
PS3 : 2.384.292
PS4 : 2.356.098



for week 105 :
Tales of Symphonia week 2 on GC (23k units sold)
GTAIV released on PS3 (36k units sold)
WiiU is gonna "saved" by Smash

 

[Cassovia]

Here is the situation about PS4, PS3 and GC after 104 weeks :

GC : 2.391.903
PS3 : 2.384.292
PS4 : 2.356.098

for week 105 :
Tales of Symphonia week 2 on GC (23k units sold)
GTAIV released on PS3 (36k units sold)
WiiU is gonna "saved" by Smash

Thanks for this, it helps put things into perspective.

All in all, this year should be interesting for console manufacturers.

 

[Nirolak]

Since Japanese companies tend to upload their fiscal Q&A a few days later than their results, I went back and looked at a few.

Capcom: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/explanation/2015/3rd/explanation_2015_3rd_02.pdf
-They're now expecting to ship 3.2 million copies of Monster Hunter X by the end of March.
-They didn't move on their Street Fighter expectations (2 million units).
-Capcom noted that both Dragon's Dogma Online and Monster Hunter Explore are meeting expectations. They did revise their mobile and "PC and other" expectations down based on the performance of their other service games and legacy titles however.
-Capcom merged Beeline back into their main mobile branch because they realized the distinction was stupid. Previously Capcom launched (mid)core mobile games while Beeline did casual mobile games.
-For the most part they're still waiting until next fiscal year to comment on the performance of Monster Hunter Online (the online game for the Chinese market), but did note that initial player acquisition is ahead of targets.

DeNA: http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?template=ir_material&sid=49138&code=2432
-DeNA's overall new focus is still on making a profitable series of wholly owned IP mobile titles, but they will continue to dabble in partnership and licensed titles.
-The more DeNA talks about their role in Nintendo's mobile games, the more it sounds like they're just there to do things like supply a database backend that can handle 5 million users logging in on day one, downloading in-app updates, sending telemetry data, and making purchases in the store without collapsing, along with ensuring everything ties into the My Nintendo account successfully.

 

[Vena]

DeNA: http://v4.eir-parts.net/v4Contents/View.aspx?template=ir_material&sid=49138&code=2432
-The more DeNA talks about their role in Nintendo's mobile games, the more it sounds like they're just there to do things like supply a database backend that can handle 5 million users logging in on day one, downloading in-app updates, sending telemetry data, and making purchases in the store without collapsing, along with ensuring everything ties into the My Nintendo account successfully.

We've known this for a bit but its good to have another confirmation on the matter. Gives one hope that the My Nintendo account will actually be fairly modern too... lol.

 

[M3d10n]

For those wondering about Wii U numbers, there seem to be shortages due to CPU production problems.

It took so long for Nintendo to go through their initial Wii U stock they forgot how to build new units.

 

[DrWong]

It took so long for Nintendo to go through their initial Wii U stock they forgot how to build new units.

They lost the plan.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Because PS3 sales in Japan aren´t any indication of actual good sales.

So what would be "good" sales in this ravaged region? What is the measurement? I surely hope it isn't PS1 and PS2 because that would be a nonsensical comparison.

 

[ZSaberLink]

So what would be "good" sales in this ravaged region? What is the measurement? I surely hope it isn't PS1 and PS2 because that would be a nonsensical comparison.

Here is the situation about PS4, PS3 and GC after 104 weeks :

GC : 2.391.903
PS3 : 2.384.292
PS4 : 2.356.098

That comparison should say it all. It really depends on the longevity of the console. I think we can all agree the GameCube did terribly in Japan (4M), yet it was slightly ahead of both the PS3 & PS4 in the same timeframe. The PS3 hit its numbers (~10M) because it consistently sold well over a large number of years. I don't think the PS4 will even be Sony's main console as long as the PS3 was.

Sure if it actually hits 10M somehow, I'd say the PS4 did decently given the current climate and that nearly everyone's expectations are lower, but it's still a huge contraction of the general console market in JP.

 

[notaskwid]

What? You expect 10m PS4 units sold just this year in Japan? /jk It would be a great start to actually follow a discussion before you chime in, since it´s evident that we were talking about yearly sales and not lifetime sales. Also interesting to note that PS3 barely broke the 10m mark only thanks to an extended lifespan its yearly performance on their own have been even less enticing, and even then, 10m lifetime sales are pretty mediocre in my book regardless.

Anyway most importantly this excuse isn´t convincing at all, considering that Japan bought this gen in just the first two years 10m 3ds units and we actually have a current gen system (namely 3DS) that sold 20m+ units so far with further million units to follow.

I know you were talking about yearly sales, and the user you replied to was saying that if the PS4 managed to sell as much or more this is than PS3's 2009 it would be a good result to which you replied that that would be mediocre at best, like PS3 sales were.
I simply stated that given the actual circumstances I don't think the PS3 numbers were mediocre, they were good. Sorry if it wasn't clear.

 

[KillerMan91]

The point was about known quantity releases, I could have picked Mario or anything else for that matter except Splatoon. The crux is that titles like this are known and the more spin-offs and minor titles that precede them, the less the affect of the ultimate release of the mainline because of granular transitions over time. Not every spin-off appeals to every fan but with enough spin-offs, you'll rope in a sizable chunk of the base to upgrade (and the spin-offs/remakes aren't exactly earth shatteringly unique). This is coupled with the belief in a decline of the series in Japan.

The original point I was trying to make was that Y6, alone and from compounding factors, was/is not going to match to what MGSV did alone even though it was cross platform. MGSV is a unique beast with many of its fans not exactly having a reason to shift or pick up a new platforms before its arrival. It had a "demo" release early on but it generally has little else like it as a point of moving audience. That's why when it launched it shot the system up by nearly 40k in hardware that week.

I may ultimately be wrong but this is my reasoning.

Well I guess we will see who is right when the game launches. After looking at hw sales of PS3 when Yakuza 3 launched (from 16k -> 36k) Yakuza 6 should not really compare to MGSV when it comes to hw impact so you will be probably right lol. Actually Yakuza 4 gave PS3 bigger boost than Yakuza 3.

Coming close for once to PS3 best years doesn't mean anything long term if it can't repeat these yearly sales, like PS3 did.

Well yeah obviously PS3 sold what it sold because it was able to sell decently year after year. Hard to say how PS4 will fair after this year (and will it hit the peak sales of PS3 this year in the first place) but I don't see why it couldn't have kinda similar life to PS3. It's selling based on same strengths as PS3. Sure this time around the gen will be probably shorter so it will not hit the LTD numbers of PS3 without some mainstream fad happening with VR.

 

[Chris1964]

Since Japanese companies tend to upload their fiscal Q&A a few days later than their results, I went back and looked at a few.

Capcom: http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/explanation/2015/3rd/explanation_2015_3rd_02.pdf
-They're now expecting to ship 3.2 million copies of Monster Hunter X by the end of March.

When did this report come out? Capcom has shipped 3,2M until Dec 2015.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Wow Wii U was destroyed this week. The NX better make it out this year and it better be a damn good system or Nintendo is in for an extended period of darkness.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Wow Wii U was destroyed this week. The NX better make it out this year and it better be a damn good system or Nintendo is in for an extended period of darkness.

It's always better to give a quick look to at least the first couple of pages before posting on a new thread.

 

[Nyoro SF]

It's always better to give a quick look to at least the first couple of pages before posting on a new thread.

Should be put in big red flashing letters above every thread haha

 

[perfectchaos007]

It's always better to give a quick look to at least the first couple of pages before posting on a new thread.

I'm skeptical of the shortages. I can't help but to think back during the PS3 "shortages" Sony claimed were effecting sales when any store I went to had plenty in stock. Maybe the shortages are real but I'm not in Japan to go store to store on my own so...

 

[hiska-kun]

I'm skeptical of the shortages. I can't help but to think back during the PS3 "shortages" Sony claimed were effecting sales when any store I went to had plenty in stock. Maybe the shortages are real but I'm not in Japan to go store to store on my own so...

&#12362;&#21697;&#20999;&#12428;&#20013;=>Out of stock

 

[DriftingSpirit]

I think the sentiment is still valid. The Wii U is done and the NX needs to come sooner rather than later.

 

[Nirolak]

When did this report come out? Capcom has shipped 3,2M until Dec 2015.

The conference call was January 28th, but the Q&A being posted online was February 8th, so both were after December.

If they already hit that number, then presumably they're answering that they don't expect to ship any new copies (in notable volume) this fiscal year.

 

[Chris1964]

The conference call was January 28th, but the Q&A being posted online was February 8th, so both were after December.

If they already hit that number, then presumably they're answering that they don't expect to ship any new copies (in notable volume) this fiscal year.

I don't think it's possible they didn't ship other copies after December with the rate MHX is selling, more like the specific person didn't have knowledge of current and future forecast.

 

[Moor-Angol]

That comparison should say it all. It really depends on the longevity of the console. I think we can all agree the GameCube did terribly in Japan (4M), yet it was slightly ahead of both the PS3 & PS4 in the same timeframe. The PS3 hit its numbers (~10M) because it consistently sold well over a large number of years. I don't think the PS4 will even be Sony's main console as long as the PS3 was.

Sure if it actually hits 10M somehow, I'd say the PS4 did decently given the current climate and that nearly everyone's expectations are lower, but it's still a huge contraction of the general console market in JP.

We should make some considerations :

GC - it didn't started bad at all, it was challenging with a system called PS2, the problem is Nintendo really dropped the ball fast, let's say after only 3 years, so an overall comparison can't be made in my opinion, but just as a 2-2,5 years

PS3 - opposite from GC, it lasted around ten years and most of the top seller games were released during 2010-2011, four years after the launch.
Still opposite from GC, PS3 started terrible, it was challenging a mass-market system called Wii with an astronomical price (things turned good when Sony first dropped the price, secondly introduced the Slim model)

So while GC can be used as "starting" comparison, PS3 can be used for an "overall" comparison.

I do not think PS4 will last less than 6-7 years, it's not a nintendo system, so reaching 10mln would be, considering the actual home market, a very good result.
Of course actually we can't say that result can/could be achieavable, but with Sony shifting all their own efforts towards PS4 and being PS4 probably the only good home system (I don't have faith in NX home version, Nintendo should focus on the only thing nowadays they can do : handhelds) I would say that 10mln should be a target for them.

This is my analysis, and not mixing apples with oranges as comparing PS4 with 3DS (how long before everyone gets tired about comparing an handheld with a home?)

 

[jariw]

I'm skeptical of the shortages. I can't help but to think back during the PS3 "shortages" Sony claimed were effecting sales when any store I went to had plenty in stock. Maybe the shortages are real but I'm not in Japan to go store to store on my own so...

Why not just visit the Japanese web stores?

 

[madstarr12]

Regarding the Wii U hardware shortages, is there any report on whether people are actively asking about the stock conditions and are actually interested in making a purchase?

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think the sentiment is still valid. The Wii U is done and the NX needs to come sooner rather than later.

Wii U never started lol. Outside of a christmas or two.

I mean, it's sales have been fairly consistent. Consistently horrible, but consistent.
I almost feel getting a 3DS replacement is more needed. This is gonna be a rough year. And NX handheld has more potential than NX console unless Nintendo pulls something special.

 

[flaviusconstantius]

Wii U never started lol. Outside of a christmas or two.

I mean, it's sales have been fairly consistent. Consistently horrible, but consistent.
I almost feel getting a 3DS replacement is more needed. This is gonna be a rough year. And NX handheld has more potential than NX console unless Nintendo pulls something special.

The place where a 3DS replacement is really needed is the West. Sales and mind-share are heading off a cliff, and if they wait until 2017 they may well be lucky to get Japan-Vita levels of success.

 

[Moor-Angol]

and thus SFV appeared on COMG chart, #19 with 19pt, 2 less than Bomba on Titan and 1 more than another new entry, Mario & Sonic in somewhere Olympic 2016 (looking forward to Mario & Sonic & Kaneda in Tokyo 2020 !!!)

 

[hiska-kun]

Media Create Sell-through

01./00. [PS4] Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4 <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2016.02.04} (¥7.600) - 64.446 / NEW <74,86%> [Units shipped => 86.089]

First Two Days Sell-Through {2016.02.10}

[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV: Final <RPG> (Atlus) (¥6.480) - 60%

[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered <SLG> (Sega) (¥4.990) - 60%

 

[Vena]

and thus SFV appeared on COMG chart, #19 with 19pt, 2 less than Bomba on Titan and 1 more than another new entry, Mario & Sonic in somewhere Olympic 2016 (looking forward to Mario & Sonic & Kaneda in Tokyo 2020 !!!)

Well, at least it showed up.

[PS4] Valkyria Chronicles Remastered <SLG> (Sega) (¥4.990) - 60%

I'm wondering if this is a shipment of 20-25k, putting the FDS at around 12-15k? Though I may potentially be overestimating retailer faith in the title and it could be like 15-20k and looking at something like an FDS of 9-12k.