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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

If they won black Friday wouldn't they say something about that ?

Not if it's too soon to make that call. We already know that XBOX and PS4 sales on BF were almost on par. 1% difference in a market study is literally nothing. Even with such a huge sample size the true results could be the other way around. That's why both are most likely waiting for "official" NPD numbers. (Point is: They know of course THEIR numbers, but not those from the competition).

Still, everything else than a clear win for Sony in November would be a very huge surprise now.
 

Kyougar

Member
What's noteworthy is how quickly Windows is claiming users. W10 just launched in July, and Windows already accounts for nearly as much Live activity as the consoles.



What? No, Live activity is counted separately from that stuff. Yes, it's really easy to get on Live if you're already a Microsoft user, but you aren't counted as one without a separate account.

Right? A Live account is separate from your regular MS account, yes?

Thats the Thing, we dont know. From an Account Standpoint, there is no difference between an XBOX Account, a Skype Account, a Windows Account or an Office Account.
They would have to flag the Account internally, that he used Xbox services, to be counted truthfully.

Lets look from this Perspective: You are using your Microsoft Account for Skype, Office and as a Windows 8/10 Login. If they dont already be used you as a MAU Metric, you will be 99% included in the metric if you open the Microsoft Store on Windows.

Maybe thats really what Microsoft ever cares about, but that doesnt do sh*t for XBOX or the XBone.
 
Thats the Thing, we dont know. From an Account Standpoint, there is no difference between an XBOX Account, a Skype Account, a Windows Account or an Office Account.
They would have to flag the Account internally, that he used Xbox services, to be counted truthfully.

Lets look from this Perspective: You are using your Microsoft Account for Skype, Office and as a Windows 8/10 Login. If they dont already be used you as a MAU Metric, you will be 99% included in the metric if you open the Microsoft Store on Windows.

Maybe thats really what Microsoft ever cares about, but that doesnt do sh*t for XBOX or the XBone.

After Xbox family* comes the MS account family*.
 
Thats the Thing, we dont know. From an Account Standpoint, there is no difference between an XBOX Account, a Skype Account, a Windows Account or an Office Account.
They would have to flag the Account internally, that he used Xbox services, to be counted truthfully.

Lets look from this Perspective: You are using your Microsoft Account for Skype, Office and as a Windows 8/10 Login. If they dont already be used you as a MAU Metric, you will be 99% included in the metric if you open the Microsoft Store on Windows.

Maybe thats really what Microsoft ever cares about, but that doesnt do sh*t for XBOX or the XBone.
Oh, so it is a global ID? That makes sense. I use my AppleID to access both the App Store and iCloud, but the actual usage is still tracked separately. Ditto for GameCenter usage, which would be most directly comparable to Live.
 

samar11

Member
Not if it's too soon to make that call. We already know that XBOX and PS4 sales on BF were almost on par. 1% difference in a market study is literally nothing. Even with such a huge sample size the true results could be the other way around. That's why both are most likely waiting for "official" NPD numbers. (Point is: They know of course THEIR numbers, but not those from the competition).

Still, everything else than a clear win for Sony in November would be a very huge surprise now.

Well Sony did have COD and BF bundles and marketing during the month, I say PS4 got Nov.
 

dolemite

Member
so much rumor and speculation in this thread, it feels like a "Kardashian" episode. The numbers are out next week, a little patience please.
 
Just wish MS would keep 100% keighley tbh. But Sony Too during PS3 & vita eras, so whatever.

No worries tho. I'm a patient man. NPD is coming. And with it, thread of the forever.

I figured MS would take Oct and BF, with Sony taking Nov as a whole and Dec. I still think Sony has Dec on lock, but Nov seems to be really up in the air. Thread gonna be glorious.
 

allan-bh

Member
I figured MS would take Oct and BF, with Sony taking Nov as a whole and Dec. I still think Sony has Dec on lock, but Nov seems to be really up in the air. Thread gonna be glorious.

For now december will be a massacre because PS4 will be $299 between 12/06 and 12/19 and Xbox One remains $349.

But is hard to believe that Microsoft will not respond Sony's move.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Just wish MS would keep 100% keighley tbh. But Sony Too during PS3 & vita eras, so whatever.

No worries tho. I'm a patient man. NPD is coming. And with it, thread of the forever.

I figured MS would take Oct and BF, with Sony taking Nov as a whole and Dec. I still think Sony has Dec on lock, but Nov seems to be really up in the air. Thread gonna be glorious.
What's possibly up in the air (with hints of PS4 winning it) is BF. Immo it looks like Nov is a lock for Sony, and so will Dec unless something unexpected happens (MS dropping to $299 during the same period is expected).
 

Death2494

Member
Huh? Best BF for Xbox one ever. I think they've got ps4 beat in November.
Nothing about screams vicotry. In fact they used the data from infoscout that said the Gears of war bundle was the besr selling console on black Friday. But infoscout also confirmed PS4 won BF by 1% (within the margin of error to be fair). Sorry there is nothing that suggests Xbox won November in the UK or US. But nothing is set in stone so we will have to see.
They're line-up was amazing this holiday season they need the win to keep the dream of exclusives alive. Poor Laura, game got amazing reviews too.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
MAUUUUUUSSSSS

maus.jpg
 
Hmm, so if MS seemingly did that well, what does that say about how well the PS4 may have done? If it is implying what I think it does, I am just glad November will seemingly more than make up for the lackluster October sales.

Time to readjust predictions!
 

Death2494

Member
Hmm, so if MS seemingly did that well, what does that say about how well the PS4 may have done? If it is implying what I think it does, I am just glad November will seemingly more than make up for the lackluster October sales.

Time to readjust predictions!
Yea Queso predicted this in the October NPD thread. I forgot the exact post but he and others definitely assumed this was the way November would go. Im expecting botb to sale over 1million.
 
Would love to see how predictions here developed over the past days.
I edited to push them up, especially WiiU and Xbox a little.
Can't say that I feel better now, though.
 

QaaQer

Member
What's noteworthy is how quickly Windows is claiming users. W10 just launched in July, and Windows already accounts for nearly as much Live activity as the consoles.



What? No, Live activity is counted separately from that stuff. Yes, it's really easy to get on Live if you're already a Microsoft user, but you aren't counted as one without a separate account.

Right? A Live account is separate from your regular MS account, yes?


Volume! VOLUME! VOLUME!

It costs $10/year to get rid of the ads in Solitaire. Yes, they get five times as much from a Gold sub, but soon they'll have five times as many users on Windows. Then ten times. Maybe fifty times. Maybe more.

Maybe nobody will pay to disable the ads. That's fine too. The Flappy Bird dude was pulling in $50,000 per day in ad views, after Apple got their cut. How many people do you suppose were playing that at any given time? Maybe a million, tops? How many people around the world do you suppose are playing Solitaire on Windows at any given time, or simply have it running in the background while they take a break to do some actual work? Maybe 100 million? So that'd mean Microsoft could harvest TWO BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR pushing ads through a fucking solitaire client. This is why you can only disable them via recurring payment.

This is where their focus is now. That's why console sales don't matter anymore. They can make more money with less effort on Windows, especially if they can ever get their phones to take off.

In order to monetize Windows with things like ads + Windows store + mobile/cloud integration, they have to move away from having an open general computing platform. I wish there were competing alternatives.

I wonder what Windows would look like now if GW Bush had not stole the election in 2000 and therefore could not stop the doj from splitting MS into two parts.
 

Talax

Member
So last thread someone (don't remember who) was arguing that MAU is a good measure for Microsoft considering where MS is going with the unified under Windows thing.

Rocket League was just announced for xbox one but no cross platform play with pc. It's getting really hard for me to see where this unification is actually happening with xbox....
 
So last thread someone (don't remember who) was arguing that MAU is a good measure for Microsoft considering where MS is going with the unified under Windows thing.

Rocket League was just announced for xbox one but no cross platform play with pc. It's getting really hard for me to see where this unification is actually happening with xbox....
Unification will happen whenever the publisher/developer agrees. The infrastructure is there and MS will do a lot to make this happen. How this works in each case can differ. If a game also runs on phone, tablet console or PC depends. I am sure this is also something where "unified" games can start on one platform and can expand over time.
Patience. They just started.
 
So last thread someone (don't remember who) was arguing that MAU is a good measure for Microsoft considering where MS is going with the unified under Windows thing.

Rocket League was just announced for xbox one but no cross platform play with pc. It's getting really hard for me to see where this unification is actually happening with xbox....

Microsoft wants unification but only within their ecosystem. Rocket League is already cross platform between the PS4 and PC. If Microsoft allowed PC/XB1 play they'd have to offer support for the PS4 too, and their business strategy can't allow that. They need for gamers to pay for Gold accounts in order to play online with XB1 players. Allowing PSN+ gamers access to XB1 players would be a huge loophole in that scheme.
 
Unification will happen whenever the publisher/developer agrees. The infrastructure is there and MS will do a lot to make this happen. How this works in each case can differ. If a game also runs on phone, tablet console or PC depends. I am sure this is also something where "unified" games can start on one platform and can expand over time.
Patience. They just started.

According to the devs, this one is because of Xbox policy. You're right about it taking some time for this to change. The policy will likely go away as an E3 announcement with several games being shown off. I can see it now
 
So last thread someone (don't remember who) was arguing that MAU is a good measure for Microsoft considering where MS is going with the unified under Windows thing.

Rocket League was just announced for xbox one but no cross platform play with pc. It's getting really hard for me to see where this unification is actually happening with xbox....
Don't underestimate the MAU.
 

Kyougar

Member
You guys need to learn your'e, errr... your grammar! Seriously!

This is a MAU (also referred as a "DAU" or "dümmst anzunehmender User"):

ITJB-Die-lustigsten-DAU-Geschichten.jpg



THIS is a MAUS:

maus-rechts-600.jpg



And THESE are MÄUSE:

be4cbc278.jpg


This Post is sponsored by the Holy Church of MAU.
 
A Poem about the great god of MAU

I noticed two sets of footprints in the sand,
One belonging to me and one to the MAU God.

But I noticed that during most troublesome times of this console generation,
there was only one set of footprints.

When I asked the MAU God about this, he replied, "My precious paying customer, I value your subscription.
But, those were the times when the Master Chief Collection first launched. "
 
For now december will be a massacre because PS4 will be $299 between 12/06 and 12/19 and Xbox One remains $349.

But is hard to believe that Microsoft will not respond Sony's move.


If Microsoft is going to respond to Sony's extended price drop, they sure didn't let the retailers know in time to get it in print....Microsoft may have to rely on their own PR and communication channels to get any deals out there, at least for next week...


Right now, here is Target's ad for this coming Sunday though next Saturday..

 

watdaeff4

Member
I am predicting ~400K more PS4 sold in Nov. If the prices/sales stay the same, it will be about the same in Dec. (my prediction that is)
 
There once was a Gaffer, somehow

one day he was raising a brow,

stating: "Units don't matter

because we have better."

Lost his soul to the Church of MAU.
 

panda-zebra

Member
Given MS' Black Friday PR, what do you all think is the minimum for PS4 and X1 for NPD?

All anyone can really say for sure is:

ps4* > xb1 > 750k

...and even then that > 750k could include the small number of 360 sales as well.

*(probably, given no "we won" statement in their PR)


Anki Overdrive present for my nephews is what me and my boy are looking forward to xmas day, but yea, that's not a lgood look for microsoft (given what obliterator said about their counter move plans).
 
If Microsoft is going to respond to Sony's extended price drop, they sure didn't let the retailers know in time to get it in print....Microsoft may have to rely on their own PR and communication channels to get any deals out there, at least for next week...


Right now, here is Target's ad for this coming Sunday though next Saturday..

image36.jpg

I'm actually kind of surprised that they haven't responded already.

More on the lines of this very topic, does anyone know what period of time the Christmas shopping hits its peak? Or is it relatively spread throughout the month with the peak being right near the end?
 
I'm actually kind of surprised that they haven't responded already.

More on the lines of this very topic, does anyone know what period of time the Christmas shopping hits its peak? Or is it relatively spread throughout the month with the peak being right near the end?

Pretty steady throughout the month, but there is a moderate spike towards the late second week/early third week with last minute shoppers.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
If Microsoft is going to respond to Sony's extended price drop, they sure didn't let the retailers know in time to get it in print....Microsoft may have to rely on their own PR and communication channels to get any deals out there, at least for next week...


Right now, here is Target's ad for this coming Sunday though next Saturday..

image36.jpg

Yeah, this may be a problem. There needs to be at least one $299 SKU on shelves to compete. We'll see what happens.
 
If Microsoft is going to respond to Sony's extended price drop, they sure didn't let the retailers know in time to get it in print....Microsoft may have to rely on their own PR and communication channels to get any deals out there, at least for next week...


Right now, here is Target's ad for this coming Sunday though next Saturday..

OMG, that juxtaposition between price and additional content is going to kill the XB1. PS4 comes with Battlefront and costs $299.99, while the XB1 comes with a remastered Gears of War Ultimate Edition and a battery charger at $349.99. I also see that the XB1 deal is only in limited quantities with no rain checks while the PS4 has no such restrictions. Ouch! I seriously can't see anyone even a little bit undecided looking at that ad and deciding to get an XB1.
 
Stupid ad, hiding the free game in the text instead of showing it in the image. I'd smack the guy who made this.

I find it extremely odd MS has not announced their price drop yet, what are they waiting for?

Nadella's permission. Guess he is tired of Phil always coming around, asking for just one more discount.
 

Tubie

Member
If Microsoft is going to respond to Sony's extended price drop, they sure didn't let the retailers know in time to get it in print....Microsoft may have to rely on their own PR and communication channels to get any deals out there, at least for next week...


Right now, here is Target's ad for this coming Sunday though next Saturday..

I find it extremely odd MS has not announced their price drop yet, what are they waiting for?
 
I find it extremely odd MS has not announced their price drop yet, what are they waiting for?

Nadella and Phil Spencer's signature.

Price drops don't happen at a whim. If you didn't allocate the budget for it, you have to ask permission from your boss to either :

- utilise unplanned trade marketing funds to reduce the price beyond initial plans
- ask for permission to reduce your margins which will impact your profitability

Even when PS4 dropped to 349, it's not like Xbox suddenly immediately dropped to 299 in response, but instead kept with their original 4-day deal only. Business is complicated, not everything can be reactive.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If it's a free game promotion, I think that will be like somewhat effective but they'll be downhill.
 
I feel like if they can afford to do a free game promotion, they might as well drop it to 299. =/

Unless they're really, really against dropping the price below a certain threshold for more than a few days.
 
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