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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

Anyone who works in retail saw it coming, Best Buy was holding back their Battlefront bundles black friday weekend (huge numbers in distribution centers very few in-stores). It was planned for sure

Damn. I guess someone didn't want to lose the playoffs.

So console market in the US was very healthy in november, right?

It was probably the biggest November ever for Gen 8, so I'd say yeah.
 
In order to monetize Windows with things like ads + Windows store + mobile/cloud integration, they have to move away from having an open general computing platform. I wish there were competing alternatives.

I wonder what Windows would look like now if GW Bush had not stole the election in 2000 and therefore could not stop the doj from splitting MS into two parts.
And that's why Microsoft Game Studios is proud to announce that those same pennies a day will also disable the ads in their new games, Fourtris and Candy Crack, available exclusively on Windows Phone, today!!

And there's more! For a limited time, every month you'll also get five Master Cheats to use in Spartan Assault! That's a $9.99 value, every month! You can't afford not to join!!


It's really not that hard to monetize people.

NDC bundle discontinued, 299 w/no games in Feb/March is my guess.

Continue with 349 new game bundles throughout the rest of the year.
/nod


It likely will anyways. This much promotional pricing and offers will pull some demand forward that would naturally come later. You add a price increase and the drop will be steeper. But separating what's seasonality vs pulled forward demand via promotion vs price increase sensitivity is impossible.
This. I think Sony will release an unbundled console for $299 after the holidays to maintain the price point and help ease some of the drop.


Highly doubt this will happen. Nintendo hasn't been relevant when it comes to core third party games and online play for more than a decade. The NX isn't going to impact the Xbox brand to that level in my opinion.
That's what would make it the preferred choice as a secondary console, as opposed to your primary console, no? Why get a Bone to compliment your PS4 when it caters to mostly the same tastes? Seems like something that offered something unique would be a better investment of your money.


I do wonder if they are still profitable at the $299 price point or if they are taking a bit of a hit. Knowing whether or not they are still making a profit @ $299 would certainly help. To bad we don't really have anyway of knowing either way.
They've been at like $290 with no game for a while in Japan and they said that was profitable for them. I don't think they'll have any trouble hitting $299 unbundled in the US.
 

mo60

Member
Amazon December monthly finally up:

#1 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 ( o_O )
#11 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#16 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake collection
#39 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate
#40 / XB1: Holidays bundle
#61 / XB1 + Kinect
#90 / 3DS XL
#97 / XB1 Elite

I find it weird how halo5 is at #6. I thought it would be lower.Maybe amazon is a poor indicator on how well that game is actually doing, but maybe the price drop on Amazon is helping it a bit.Also everything will be represented by MAU's in the NPD in the future. :)
 
I find it weird how halo5 is at #6. I thought it would be lower.Maybe amazon is a poor indicator on how well that game is actually doing, but maybe the price drop on Amazon is helping it a bit.

Everyone wants it for their new Xbox and it wasn't bundled with any of them.
 

Bolivar687

Banned
I find it weird how halo5 is at #6. I thought it would be lower.Maybe amazon is a poor indicator on how well that game is actually doing, but maybe the price drop on Amazon is helping it a bit.Also everything will be represented by MAU's in the NPD in the future. :)

XBone and even 360 versions of multiplats beating PS4 SKUs, The Order at #15 and Xenoblade rounding out the top 20 ahead a lot of holiday titles...

This is why we take Amauzon with a grain of salt.
 

noshten

Member

#20 Xenoblade Chronicles X

tumblr_inline_np1t3dvLvp1rqq9hf_500.gif
 

RexNovis

Banned
They've been at like $290 with no game for a while in Japan and they said that was profitable for them. I don't think they'll have any trouble hitting $299 unbundled in the US.

I live in Japan. I don't remember it ever being ¥29000. Do you have source for this with them saying it's still profitable? This is news to me.
 
Even if Sony drops to $299, I don't think it's going to be without a bundle. I do think that the NDC bundle is going to be phased out around the time Uncharted 4 comes out, but I think that'll just get replaced by another bundle with first party software. Especially since, just like with NDC, there's a game they have a remaster of that could be used to drive interest to the next game in the series coming out soon (God Of War 3: Remastered). Heck, they could even attempt to throw in Gravity Rush as well, if they want.
 

stryke

Member
I find it weird how halo5 is at #6. I thought it would be lower.Maybe amazon is a poor indicator on how well that game is actually doing, but maybe the price drop on Amazon is helping it a bit.Also everything will be represented by MAU's in the NPD in the future. :)

Really? You looked at that list and that stuck out as weird?
 

Rymuth

Member
So Pachter predicts there's nothing Microsoft can do to close the gap or re-take the US.

Michael Pachter said:
&#8220;We should start every console cycle assuming Sony&#8217;s going to outsell Microsoft 2 to 1, because they have twice as many people who know what their console is and like.&#8221;<..>. &#8220;My guess is Microsoft is gonna really try hard to win in the U.S. and they&#8217;re probably going to fail. They&#8217;re gonna hope to win globally and they&#8217;re pretty definitely gonna fail.&#8221;

Source


Microsoft set to re-take the US confirmed?
 

N.Domixis

Banned
So Pachter predicts there's nothing Microsoft can do to close the gap or re-take the US.


Source


Microsoft set to re-take the US confirmed?

I think we have reach the critical point of no return. After this year ps4 will most likely remain ahead for the rest of the gen in the states.
 
I live in Japan. I don't remember it ever being ¥29000. Do you have source for this with them saying it's still profitable? This is news to me.
The $290 was just whatever the newest price point in Japan was worth in real money at the time. ($292 and change, as I recall.)

At the time, they said they were profitable in all regions at the newer price points. I'm headed out, but I'll dig up a link if nobody beats me to it.
 

Elandyll

Banned
If the PS4 gets an official price drop early next year (it's imo possible, but might not happen immediately, I think more like either Feb or early March), there's no reason why a 1st party title wouldn't be thrown in.

Of all the candidates, the one that makes the most sense to me is Infamous SS+ First Light, and it would also possibly set the stage for Sucker Punch to announce their next title at E3.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
I can easily see Microsoft announce the same $300 price tag for the next two weeks tomorrow at around 10am PST. :p :)
 
GCN vs. PS2. Power is not the main thing that drives console sales, even at a lower price.

I don't think that proves that power isn't a factor. All that proves is that if you're super late to the market and your console is a purple lunch box you're probably going to struggle. That plus they had no 3rd party support or DVD player. By the time the GC even released the PS2 had already one that generation.

Also when the PS2 released it was the most powerful console and that was the perception of it at least amongst people I knew.

The comparison to the PS2 era when discussing the importance of a powerful console is a poor one.
 

Tubie

Member
Yea, standalone PS4 at 299 makes no sense.

It costs Sony nothing to bundle in a first party game, doesn't matter the cost.

Their $299 NDC bundles are still profitable because they don't have to pay a third party for the cost of the bundled game.
 
I live in Japan. I don't remember it ever being ¥29000. Do you have source for this with them saying it's still profitable? This is news to me.
I can't seem to find the original source anywhere, but here's where Zhuge said Sony Japan said it. It's possible the original source is in Japanese.

Sony Japan stated that the price cut is to push adoption of the console even further and they said that PlayStation 4 is profitable even at the new price point.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I can't seem to find the original source anywhere, but here's where Zhuge said Sony Japan said it. It's possible the original source is in Japanese.

Oh I see you were converting ¥ to USD. Not exactly a fair comparison though. The ¥ is basically the lowest value it's been in a decade thanks to the artificial inflation policies of the JP Prime Minister. I also wouldn't be surprised if the costs associated with the console were significantly less than in the US thanks to tariffs, taxes and shipping costs associated with the latter.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
That's what would make it the preferred choice as a secondary console, as opposed to your primary console, no? Why get a Bone to compliment your PS4 when it caters to mostly the same tastes? Seems like something that offered something unique would be a better investment of your money.

I agree that having a Nintendo system alongside an Xbox or a PlayStation is far better in terms of game variety than having an Xbox with a PlayStation but the NX will be facing an uphill battle in terms of content as well as online userbase as its releasing right in the middle of the life of the PS4 and Xbox One. The NX isn't going to just burst out and cause the Xbox brand to fade out in areas outside of the U.S. -- especially if the system isn't priced right for what it will offer.

Very few are going to get a Nintendo console for third party core multiplats. Nintendo needs to price the home NX at no more than $250 if they want it to do well in my opinion.
 

samar11

Member
I agree that having a Nintendo system alongside an Xbox or a PlayStation is far better in terms of game variety than having an Xbox with a PlayStation but the NX will be facing an uphill battle in terms of content as well as online userbase as its releasing right in the middle of the life of the PS4 and Xbox One. The NX isn't going to just burst out and cause the Xbox brand to fade out in areas outside of the U.S. -- especially if the system isn't priced right for what it will offer.

Very few are going to get a Nintendo console for third party core multiplats. Nintendo needs to price the home NX at no more than $250 if they want it to do well in my opinion.

Knowing Nintendo that's not going to happen, unless it's super gimped lol.
 
Oh I see you were converting ¥ to USD. Not exactly a fair comparison though. The ¥ is basically the lowest value it's been in a decade thanks to the artificial inflation policies of the JP Prime Minister. I also wouldn't be surprised if the costs associated with the console were significantly less than in the US thanks to tariffs, taxes and shipping costs associated with the latter.
Well, shipping a console from China wouldn't cost more than a couple of bucks. Taxes are taken at point of sale. I don't think the US has tariffs on consoles, do we?


I agree that having a Nintendo system alongside an Xbox or a PlayStation is far better in terms of game variety than having an Xbox with a PlayStation but the NX will be facing an uphill battle in terms of content as well as online userbase as its releasing right in the middle of the life of the PS4 and Xbox One. The NX isn't going to just burst out and cause the Xbox brand to fade out in areas outside of the U.S. -- especially if the system isn't priced right for what it will offer.
Well, I don't really know that Nintendo need to "take users from" MS, as Sony are already doing that pretty effectively. Also, I think you may have misunderstood the term "secondary console." (Or perhaps I have.) I don't think the idea was so much that it would become #2 in sales — though it may — but rather, if you already have a PS4, the NX would be a pretty good should should you ever hanker for a second console.

Very few are going to get a Nintendo console for third party core multiples. Nintendo needs to price the home NX at no more than $250 if they want it to do well in my opinion.
If Nintendo are smart, they'll make iOS and Android games, and make their handheld an Android phone. The console should be relatively cheap and complement the handheld/phone nicely. Think iPhone/Apple TV.
 
Yea, standalone PS4 at 299 makes no sense.

It costs Sony nothing to bundle in a first party game, doesn't matter the cost.

Their $299 NDC bundles are still profitable because they don't have to pay a third party for the cost of the bundled game.

The whole reason to do something like a standalone 299 is to manage the value perception of their product at different price ranges, broaden their bundling options, and not piss off owners who were told 299 was a limited price offer only 2-3 months ago.
 
Amazon December monthly finally up:

#1 / WIU: Mario Kart 8 ( o_O )
#11 / PS4: Star Wars Battlefront
#16 / PS4: Uncharted The Nathan Drake collection
#39 / XB1: Gears of War Ultimate
#40 / XB1: Holidays bundle
#61 / XB1 + Kinect
#90 / 3DS XL
#97 / XB1 Elite

About that, given the fact that the Uncharted NDC bundle hasn't left the #1 spot for a single moment, something is broken in the monthly chart (or in the hourly, but that doesn't fit).
 

RexNovis

Banned
Well, shipping a console from China wouldn't cost more than a couple of bucks. Taxes are taken at point of sale. I don't think the US has tariffs on consoles, do we?

Actually yes I'm fairly sure the US does have tariffs for electronics. I think I read that they have been reduced a few times in the past 10 years at the behest of companies like Apple and Amazon.

I have no idea what cost is associated with shipping but, all factors considered, I could see consoles being a bit more expensive to ship and sell in the US than in Japan when they actually manufacture many of the consoles sold in Japan in Japan.
 
Again MS has deals with cards and etc. at some stores that equal or make it less than $299 outside an actual sign. They likely won't drop the price.
 

Shenmue

Banned
Yea, standalone PS4 at 299 makes no sense.

It costs Sony nothing to bundle in a first party game, doesn't matter the cost.

Their $299 NDC bundles are still profitable because they don't have to pay a third party for the cost of the bundled game.

It makes sense because of value perception versus the ones with bundled games and these would ensure that there is an extra game purchase when the console is bought.
 
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