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[prag16]

[3DS] 520K
[PS4] 1430K
[WIU] 325K
[XB1] 1480K

 

[Primethius]

[3DS] 520k
[PS4] 1070k
[WIU] 455k
[XB1] 1120k

Predictions based solely off retailer musings that I've read, which suggest that while both the XB1 and PS4 are selling out, the XB1 has more stock on hand. The Adobe data also suggests a XB1 lead but I'm not sure how accurate that data is.

Only a few stores had real price parity between the two consoles (e.g. Best Buy with no gift cards) so I just don't see the PS4 taking the lead when the gift cards from other retailers, such as Wal-Mart, come into play.

Edit: Predictions updated, reasoning no longer relevant.

 

[Javin98]

Also am I correct in assuming Donny2112 (OP) is Aquamarine's alt account?

LOL, that's one hell of a conspiracy theory. On a more serious note, I highly doubt it. Aqua and donny were both together in threads before Aqua was banned. I don't think she had the time to create a secondary account just to act more in line with the rest of us, basically I mean non-insider. But if it were true, it'd be better than Darth's "I am your father!" scene.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

[3DS] 425K
[PS4] 1250K
[WIU] 255K
[XB1] 1000K

 

[noobie]

[3DS] 480K
[PS4] 1180K
[WIU] 295K
[XB1] 1070K

Spoiler

I feel after October results that XBOX is again going to dominate November and December.. So is going to loose their lead again due to being complacent.. they are going for profit margins instead of market domination

 

[watdaeff4]

Not going by that link. Article was posted yesterday at 8:47 PM EST which would mean what the remaining three plus hours on the east coast and the six plus hours on the west coast doesn't count? A lot of stores were open to 10PM local time if not to midnight in order to be open for the entire day. And even if it's true, top selling is good but by how much? If Microsoft doesn't dominate this holiday season, then all hope for them is lost because 2015 is most likely the last chance that they will get to catch up in NA.

It's the 2000 US presidential election all over again

 

[Javin98]

I feel after October results that XBOX is again going to dominate November and December.. So is going to loose their lead again due to being complacent.. they are going for profit margins instead of market domination

Oh, great, even in the predictions thread, we get the "Sony is getting complacent" statement. Where's our bingo sheet again?

Predictions based solely off retailer musings that I've read, which suggest that while both the XB1 and PS4 are selling out, the XB1 has more stock on hand. The Adobe data also suggests a XB1 lead but I'm not sure how accurate that data is.

Only a few stores had real price parity between the two consoles (e.g. Best Buy with no gift cards) so I just don't see the PS4 taking the lead when the gift cards from other retailers, such as Wal-Mart, come into play.

Hey, I don't mean to be questioning your predictions as you can be right and I could be wrong, but are you making predictions for November as a whole or just Black Friday based on your reasoning?

 

[Final Verdict]

[3DS] 480K
[PS4] 1340K
[WIU] 290K
[XB1] 1075K

 

[robo]

[3DS] 480K
[PS4] 980K
[WIU] 315K
[XB1] 1120K

I feel after October results that XBOX is again going to dominate November and December.. So is going to loose their lead again due to being complacent.. they are going for profit margins instead of market domination

When did they loose the lead last time?, the gap shrank but Sony has never lost the lead.

 

[Elandyll]

[PS4] 1350k
[XB1] 1100k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 400k

Based on what we've seen and heard all month long, as well as current monthly Amazon ranking.
XB1 deals were too few and sparse during BF to turn anything around imo, I even see it down YoY (though still doing quite good in the US).

 

[Conduit]

[3DS] 550k
[PS4] 1130k
[WIU] 445k
[XB1] 1240k

The Adobe data also suggests a XB1 lead but I'm not sure how accurate that data is.

How is that when nearly every retailer has 2-3 PS4 bundles ahead of the first X1 bundle in their online best sellers ranking? It doesn't line up.

Adobe is one thing, online charts for every retailer is another thing.

 

[Primethius]

Oh, great, even in the predictions thread, we get the "Sony is getting complacent" statement. Where's our bingo sheet again?


Hey, I don't mean to be questioning your predictions as you can be right and I could be wrong, but are you making predictions for November as a whole or just Black Friday based on your reasoning?

November as a whole based largely on Black Friday. I think the majority of the sales will be on BF and if October is any indication (of people waiting for the bundles/deals in November) then BF will end up determining who wins.

I'll probably revise it a bit. Those are prelim numbers. It's going to be close either way I think (which would be a good result for Sony).

 

[TheOfficeMut]

How is that when nearly every retailer has 2-3 PS4 bundles ahead of the first X1 bundle in their online best sellers ranking? It doesn't line up.

Adobe is one thing, online charts for every retailer is another thing.

Yea, I don't understand this. How reliable is Adobe, considering what we see from online retailers ourselves?

 

[Purest 78]

With the SW and Cod bundle X1 would have to dominate Ps4 on BF to have a chance. I don't think that happened ps4 wins easily imo.

 

[Primethius]

How is that when nearly every retailer has 2-3 PS4 bundles ahead of the first X1 bundle in their online best sellers ranking? It doesn't line up.

Adobe is one thing, online charts for every retailer is another thing.

Yea, I don't understand this. How reliable is Adobe, considering what we see from online retailers ourselves?

Have other online rankings been reliable? I've only seen Amazon ever being used and only for hardware.

And Adobe was just just supplementing the basis of my prediction. Mine is based more of the retailer musings I've read that suggest that both XB1/PS4 are selling out but that the XB1 has/had more stock.

 

[RexNovis]

Sony and ms both made a mistake it isn't what comes with your system of you want to move everything it. Throw in digital codes for knack, the order and something. That doesn't hurt them. Just get the lower price as ms showed last year. 269 WITH very big promotional materials for all the retail stores and. Little black Friday musings would have been donation along with a bigger supply for the push. This 299 thing was ok but it simply wasn't the push people were wanting. 349 is going to be rough next year... They better do 299 ASAP.

I have no idea what I just read. What on earth are you trying to get at? Are you trying to say the deals weren't good enough? Just because MS went bundle crazy last year in order to hold on to a semblance of relevance in their primary market dies not mean that is suddenly the status quo of what to expect from here on.

 

[Javin98]

November as a whole based largely on Black Friday. I think the majority of the sales will be on BF and if October is any indication (of people waiting for the bundles/deals in November) then BF will end up determining who wins.

I'll probably revise it a bit. Those are prelim numbers. It's going to be close either way I think (which would be a good result for Sony).

Oh, I know. It's just that your reasoning seems to be based on Black Friday alone and not November as a whole. My post wasn't entirely serious anyway. But the way I see it, even if Microsoft wins BF by a small margin, I think Sony could take November by a small margin in return (50K or less). If Microsoft wins BF notably, they most likely won November as well. But if Sony wins BF and November as a whole, I don't think the gap will be smaller than 100K. Just my two cents.

 

[Purest 78]

Have other online rankings been reliable? I've only seen Amazon ever being used and only for hardware.

And Adobe was just just supplementing the basis of my prediction. Mine is based more of the retailer musings I've read that suggest that both XB1/PS4 are selling out but that the XB1 has/had more stock.

Seems like the Gears bundle is the only one doing really well. While sony banked on the UC bundle. So it depends who shipped more of those bundles imo.

 

[Primethius]

Oh, I know. It's just that your reasoning seems to be based on Black Friday alone and not November as a whole. My post wasn't entirely serious anyway. But the way I see it, even if Microsoft wins BF by a small margin, I think Sony could take November by a small margin in return (50K or less). If Microsoft wins BF notably, they most likely won November as well. But if Sony wins BF and November as a whole, I don't think the gap will be smaller than 100K. Just my two cents.

Oh yes, I agree with those scenarios. I simply think from those, it's between the first and second scenario. MS wins BF while the rest of the month leans Sony but not enough to secure Sony a win. I just need to revise numbers a bit later when I get time to match that.

 

[ptuck874]

kk first time trying this, hope I am close....

[PS4] 1495k
[XB1] 929k
[3DS] 249k
[WIU] 210k

 

[1.21Gigawatts]

[XB1] 980K
[PS4] 880K
[3DS] 390K
[WIU] 250K

 

[Jack The Nipper]

I have no idea what I just read. What on earth are you trying to get at? Are you trying to say the deals weren't good enough? Just because MS went bundle crazy last year in order to hold on to a semblance of relevance in their primary market dies not mean that is suddenly the status quo of what to expect from here on.

Price isn't good good enough. There was not one major deal that people were really wanting imo

250 would have been this years 300 for ms last year


Sales were way down all year. Way below 360... 350 really isn't going to cut it. 300 doesn't do it either imo

 

[Kill3r7]

[3DS] 500K
[PS4] 1175K
[WIU] 450K
[XB1] 1175K

 

[Javin98]

Oh yes, I agree with those scenarios. I simply think from those, it's between the first and second scenario. MS wins BF while the rest of the month leans Sony but not enough to secure Sony a win. I just need to revise numbers a bit later when I get time to match that.

Yep, I'm also waiting for PR from either Sony or Microsoft to make more accurate predictions. Initially, I didn't even want to type in my predictions yet, but it was too fun to be left out.

 

[Primethius]

Price isn't good good enough. There was not one major deal that people were really wanting imo

250 would have been this years 300 for ms last year


Sales were way down all year. Way below 360... 350 really isn't going to cut it. 300 doesn't do it either imo

MS had 329 last year, not 300. And sales for the PS4 weren't even down in every month compared to 2014, let alone, way down compared to the 360.

 

[RexNovis]

Price isn't good good enough. There was not one major deal that people were really wanting imo

250 would have been this years 300 for ms last year


Sales were way down all year. Way below 360... 350 really isn't going to cut it. 300 doesn't do it either imo

The cheapest PS4 was $100 more expensive last year. That's a significant price differential. Obviously the price differential is less for XB1 but that's not 0 either. Also I have no idea how anyone could say a drop in price of $100 isn't a good enough deal to draw interest. That's just daft.

PS4 sales were not ever below 360 sales. Where the hell did you get that? Not only that they sold MORE consoles this year than they did last year in the same timeframe WW. Sooo...

 

[OfficerRaichu15]

[3DS] 525K
[PS4] 1250K
[WIU] 350K
[XB1] 1025K
Feeling confident about this month!

 

[Mister Megative]

[3DS] 435K
[PS4] 1300K
[WIU] 400K
[XB1] 1136K

Based on retail insiders, anecdotal evidence, online rankings and the fact PS4/X1 were apparently two of the five top selling electronics online, I feel confident both broke one million.

 

[slavesnyder]

I am so happy this thread finally starts.
We will have good fun, drama, meltdowns, shills, awful insider jokes, gifs, pies, analyses and tales from asses in boatloads.
Let's go!

[3DS] 444K
[PS4] 1200K
[WIU] 352K
[XB1] 850K
Basically I think BF will be a tie/close PS4 win. But then on top will be huge preorder numbers for the new PS-bundles.

Anything but a clear win for our friends from Japan would surprise me.

Software: Halo will chart at #09. Tomb Raider won't.

 

[Ombala]

Will be an interesting month

 

[damisa]

The cheapest PS4 was $100 more expensive last year. That's a significant price differential. Obviously the price differential is less for XB1 but that's not 0 either. Also I have no idea how anyone could say a drop in price of $100 isn't a good enough deal to draw interest. That's just daft.

Also PS4 sales were not ever below 360 sales. Where the hell did you get that? Not only that they sold MORE consoles this year than they did last year in the same timeframe WW. Sooo...

PS4 did sell worse Jan-Oct 2015 compared to Jan-Oct 2014. It's the only console I know of that sold worse in it's second Jan-Oct. Even struggling systems like Wii u had improved sales in their second Jan-Oct

So I do think Sony waited too long for a price cut. However pent up demand should make it have good sales in Nov at least
[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 1200K
[WIU] 450K
[3DS] 450K

 

[Primethius]

PS4 did sell worse Jan-Oct 2015 compared to Jan-Oct 2014. It's the only console I know of that sold worse in it's second Jan-Oct. Even struggling systems like Wii u had improved sales in their second Jan-Oct

So I do think Sony waited too long for a price cut. However lent up demand should make it have good sales in Nov at least
[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 1200K
[WIU] 450K
[3DS] 450K

Do you mean from Jan through October cumulatively or just Jan and Oct? Because the former can easily be explained with Destiny month last year which was simply massive sales.

Otherwise, the PS4 has been both up and down from 2014's numbers, but nothing as consistent as an across the board decline every month.

 

[RexNovis]

PS4 did sell worse Jan-Oct 2015 compared to Jan-Oct 2014. It's the only console I know of that sold worse in it's second Jan-Oct. Even struggling systems like Wii u had improved sales in their second Jan-Oct

So I do think Sony waited too long for a price cut. However pent up demand should make it have good sales in Nov at least
[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 1200K
[WIU] 450K
[3DS] 450K

The big releases 3rd party marketing deals for PS4 are happening this month this year. Last year Destiny skewed the numbers thanks to a massive launch. Combining the total figures only tell part of the story. Looking at the figures for the whole year should give us a much better indication thanks to the profile of the releases happening this month. Besides, if you look at figures month to month it was up above last year the majority of the time. Context is important.

 

[Conduit]

Have other online rankings been reliable? I've only seen Amazon ever being used and only for hardware.

And Adobe was just just supplementing the basis of my prediction. Mine is based more of the retailer musings I've read that suggest that both XB1/PS4 are selling out but that the XB1 has/had more stock.

According to Adobe :

Samsung TV > Ipad Air > XB1 > Ipad mini > PS4

You think that Samsung sold milions of 4k TV's? Adobe just showed the hot stuff, but not particulary in that order.

 

[Primethius]

According to Adobe :

Samsung TV > Ipad Air > XB1 > Ipad mini > PS4

You think that Samsung sold milions of 4k TV's? Adobe just showed the hot stuff, but not particulary in that order.

If you want to continue ignoring the rest of what I said, feel free.

 

[Loudninja]

If you want to continue ignoring the rest of what I said, feel free.

Sony deal last until Monday.

So I am sure they had plenty of stock.

 

[Somnia]

People don't forget MS had that insane deal on COD weekend (any free game + controller or gift card depending on retailer) then free game with system on Battlefront week.

Not saying those made them "beat" PS4 in early Nov. but do not forget the boost in sales that did for MS.

 

[RexNovis]

If you want to continue ignoring the rest of what I said, feel free.

Don't encourage him. For what it's worth, your reasoning is valid but I do think it's misguided given the limited information we have thus far for BF. At the very least the timing of the Adobe PR makes it a bit suspect so I wouldn't take it as gospel. All should be clearer once we start seeing some concrete info about the sales for the weekend. We should start getting more info Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[harrisk954]

[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 1050K
[WIU] 250K
[3DS] 550K

 

[slavesnyder]

What does Adobe have to do with all of this?

 

[damisa]

Do you mean from Jan through October cumulatively or just Jan and Oct? Because the former can easily be explained with Destiny month last year which was simply massive sales.

Otherwise, the PS4 has been both up and down from 2014's numbers, but nothing as consistent as an across the board decline every month.

Cumulatively. Usually a console sells way better in it's second year but PS4 sold worse. Like I said though pent up demand for a cheaper system may make up the lost sales

 

[Tsosie]

[PS4] 1250K
[XB1] 1100K
[WIU] 365K
[3DS] 425K

 

[Crimson_Gold]

[3DS] 467K
[PS4] 1410K
[WIU] 408K
[XB1] 1287K

 

[3rdbass]

[3DS] 480K
[PS4] 980K
[WIU] 315K
[XB1] 1120K

I feel after October results that XBOX is again going to dominate November and December.. So is going to loose their lead again due to being complacent.. they are going for profit margins instead of market domination

Huh? Being complacent when the lowered the price from $399 to $299 in 45 days. Also, having the 2 most wanted exclusive bundles(SWBF and CODBO3). I wouldn't call that being complacent. They had price parity this BF unlike last year were they had been $70 more. Most BF shoppers look at prices and not what system is better(unless it is the WiiU that nobody wants LOL!). Even if the XBOX1 wins BF they won't win by enough to overtake Sony the rest of the month with the great bundles they had.

 

[RexNovis]

Cumulatively. Usually a console sells way better in it's second year but PS4 sold worse. Like I said though pent up demand for a cheaper system may make up the lost sales

It sold slightly less in the US overall but again this is without factoring in the fact that last year the big 3rd party release had already happened (Destiny) whereas this year they're in November (Battlefront and Black Ops) and have thus been yet to be accounted for. I have 0 doubt sales will be up in US for the year after this month.

You're using deceptive data in order to make a point that ignores important context. Data is only useful when we consider all the factors involved. You're basically picking and choosing which factors to consider in order to serve your desired conclusion.

 

[anexanhume]

[3DS] 420K
[PS4] 1320K
[WIU] 425K
[XB1] 1200K

 

[slavesnyder]

Cumulatively. Usually a console sells way better in it's second year but PS4 sold worse. Like I said though pent up demand for a cheaper system may make up the lost sales

So what is your conclusion?
PS4 only selling better than competition and last gen because it was front-loaded and will fall behind soon?
Or is it more the policy ironically touted by Spencer: profitability is more important than sales. So PS4 at the same time managed to sell more AND stayed profitable.
Also: if 2015 to date is less than 2014 to date i'd say wait until the year is over.

 

[3rdbass]

What does Adobe have to do with all of this?

Some people think they are new NPD I guess. LOL!

 

[slavesnyder]

Some people think they are new NPD I guess. LOL!

Who is next? Kellogg's?

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Who is next? Kellogg's?

General Mills. Cinnamon Toast Crunch and French Toast Crunch are off the charts