Last year had destiny but there was little PS4 bundling last year and this year it was bundled continuously. PS4 also had some huge bundles/game releases this year like Batman, Bloodborne and MGS4
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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Last year had destiny but there was little PS4 bundling last year and this year it was bundled continuously. PS4 also had some huge bundles/game releases this year like Batman, Bloodborne and MGS4
My conclusion is like I said, they waited too long for a price drop and lost sales because if it. Those sales maybe just delayed instead of lost forever, we'll see in Nov results
They collected data and presented it. The problem is the timing of release and how that reflects on the reliability on the info. I don't think it's as reliable ab indicator as people seem to be treating it given what we know so far from other sources and the release's time of publication.
So basically our information is far too limited right now to judge the veracity of their report and since we have no knowledge of their reliability historically speaking some skepticism is in order.
slavesnyder
Member
It always depends on what they wanted.
Of courde they could have sold more with lower price, sacrificing profit.
They decided to earn money and STILL were the best selling console. That's awesome!
Also keep in mind that Ps4 is dominating in all other regions worldwide, sometimes 4:1, earning money on every console sold.
Last: we don't even know if they could serve higher demand. So far I have the impression they sell what they produce. That's quite healthy. Lowering price and creating demand you cannot meet would be completely silly.
None of those were even close to pulling the release figures that Destiny enjoyed. The biggest factor here is the presence of a record breaking AAA release and an accompanying marketing campaign that successfully affiliated with the console in question. We haven't had this same level of release yet this year. That changed this month. The difference in sales between this year and last is really really small (less than 100k) in the US and is actually up significantly WW.
You're just declaring that the only cause for the differential between this year and last is price point. What myself and others are trying to explain is that there are lots of other factors to consider. You're basically ignoring them because they don't suit you're argument.
Do you really think that those three games you mentioned are anywhere near as close to the appeal Destiny had on PS4 sales? The PS4 selling even better last September than the 360 did when Halo 3 launched just shows you how well the Destiny marketing worked and what kind of games Americans love. Neither of the games you mentioned are FPS, by far the biggest genre in the US.
Also, this may an NPD thread, but WW, the PS4 is up YOY for this year. Why some only look at the US sales to judge how well or poorly a console is doing is beyond me. The latest info we got shows that the US contributes only ~30% to the PS4's global sales. Honestly, this US=World mentality is one of the worst things on the Internet.
CosmicQueso
Member
Making stuff up based on whatever source you want is the easiest way to get quoted by data starved sites. And Adobe's thing they're doing is still miles better than Superdata and those clowns get quoted all the time.
Try it. Seriously. Whip up a logo, put up a URL, throw some stock photos of young, smart looking people pointing at pie charts on your splash page.
Say "based on our detailed analysis of the market, we think Fallout 4 sold 3.2 million copies digitally last week". Throw on a bar chart. Someone would pick it up and run with it and next thing you know you're on the front page of Polygon.
980k is doom and gloom?? Or are you referring to something else?
Try it. Seriously. Whip up a logo, put up a URL, throw some stock photos of young, smart looking people pointing at pie charts on your splash page.
Say "based on our detailed analysis of the market, we think Fallout 4 sold 3.2 million copies digitally last week". Throw on a bar chart. Someone would pick it up and run with it and next thing you know you're on the front page of Polygon.
980k is doom and gloom?? Or are you referring to something else?
This is US sales thread so I don't know why you keep bringing up WW sales. When I say they waited too long for a price drop I obviously mean in the US.
The reason why PS4 sold less with several big games and many bundles instead of just Destiny has more to do with saturation at $400 rather than the games not being as big IMO.
If you switched the game lineups of 2014 and 2015, I think 2015 sales would still be down. We are getting off topic though. So we should probably take this to PM if you want to continue discussion
CosmicQueso
Member
[PS4] 1000k
[XB1] 1000k
[3DS] 390k
[WIU] 250k
More fun, Software:
Gotcha. People been saying some crazy stuff lately. Everyone's got the fever. MAUs and digital substitution and youtube math. All is chaos.
Well if you dive into the methdology they describe in the release, and you dig into the Adobe Marketing Cloud and Adobe Analytics, it's not like they're making up the data they are using to base their extrapolations on. But it is sample based data, heavily relying on mobile and web. Every data source should be treated with skepticism. And no one data source that is projecting off a sample should be relied on exclusively.
I'm pretty sure we're going to get varying predictions of Black Friday and how it did.
[XB1] 1000k
[3DS] 390k
[WIU] 250k
More fun, Software:
- BLOPS III
- Fallout 4
- Battlefront
- Madden NFL 16
- NBA 2K16
- Destiny: The Taken King
- Disney Infinity 3.0
- FIFA 16
- Assassin's Creed: Syndicate
- Grand Theft Auto V
Gotcha. People been saying some crazy stuff lately. Everyone's got the fever. MAUs and digital substitution and youtube math. All is chaos.
Well if you dive into the methdology they describe in the release, and you dig into the Adobe Marketing Cloud and Adobe Analytics, it's not like they're making up the data they are using to base their extrapolations on. But it is sample based data, heavily relying on mobile and web. Every data source should be treated with skepticism. And no one data source that is projecting off a sample should be relied on exclusively.
I'm pretty sure we're going to get varying predictions of Black Friday and how it did.
I'm referring to the people belaboring the point about PS4 being down YoY in US. All while ignoring the very small margin and the trends pointing to a massive increase YoY this month.
Just to be sure I'm not misreading you here (and I dint think I am) you're saying to treat all data points with skepticism and to not take Adobe's release as a concrete source right? Or am I misreading and you do think they should be held up as a meaningful point of reference?
What? MGS wasn't bundled in USA, bloodborne is a niche game compared to the real big hit.
This month they have COD and Battlefront so they'll have a big month for sure compared to last year bundle with GTA V.
I see you dropped Halo 5 from your top 10 prediction. I think you're right in that given the impressions we've been getting. I also agree on AC: Syndicate as it seemed to get a lot of deals and discounts this month and is sure to benefit from them along with positive WOM. I would place GTAV higher though. I reckon it will be 6th or 7th given the influx of new console owners many of whom will no doubt be picking it up thanks to GTA online.
Sorry i didnt mean that they will loose the lead.. just that their lead will be reduced.. thanks for correcting..
3rdamention
Member
Where does it say that? It literally lists Xbox twice, once as one of the Top 5 sellers (along with PS4) and the other time as one of the "Top Products and Inventory" for Thanksgiving day. I assume he is getting that out of the title? Seems weird to say it is a "Top Seller" in the title, then the actual article really doesn't go into that at all.
Should be interesting to see what happens come early next week when PR starts pounding their chest/
Sony is going to win this month because of the lead they gained in the first three weeks with the bundles (+ past months preorders).
Microsoft needed a big win at BF to overtake that, looking at online charts and anecdotal sales reporta by people it didn't happen, actually it's still questionable who won BF.
I guess the question is more about how much the gap is.
Waiting for BF press releases to make my predictions. Would be hilarious if all claimed victory using their own metrics
Microsoft needed a big win at BF to overtake that, looking at online charts and anecdotal sales reporta by people it didn't happen, actually it's still questionable who won BF.
I guess the question is more about how much the gap is.
Waiting for BF press releases to make my predictions. Would be hilarious if all claimed victory using their own metrics
Giriath_89
Member
I'm almost certain Zhuge and everyone else is misinterpreting that report. They list the best selling toys and electronics, but don't rank their sales in any order.
3rdamention
Member
Honestly, from what I observed, and even in the Retail Musings thread, it seemed Sony had a lot more stock. So its weird how we interpret things. I mean, Best Buy appeared to have the Uncharted Bundle nearly 2:1 stocked over the Gears and Tomb Raider Bundles, at least in the week leading up to Black Friday. Again, just my musings.
3rdamention
Member
Yeah, that is what I noticed, they just threw out their top sellers, but never said "this was the highest selling console" or "outsold all other consoles" it just appeared they were saying both consoles were top 5 in electronic sales.
CosmicQueso
Member
Bottom 5 is a crap shoot. Last year the difference between #6 and #10 was < 30k units.
I mean, look at the distribution from November of last year:
The reports of the death of Call of Duty have been greatly exaggerated.
Giriath_89
Member
I'm going to be boring and suggest there's not enough information to tell who had the most stock. Guessing is fun, but I'll just wait for the PR.
Bottom 5 is a crap shoot. Last year the difference between #6 and #10 was < 30k units.
I mean, look at the distribution from November of last year:
The reports of the death of Call of Duty have been greatly exaggerated.
Wow I had no idea they were that close last year. I don't know why but I just feel like GTA is gonna sell more than AC: Syndicate. GTA online is incredibly popular on last gen consoles and we will see a lot of people converting from last gen this season. But it's basically just a gut feeling more than anything else.
How do you think Battlefront will perform? I'm a bit torn on what to expect from Battlefront personally. I think it'll come in below Black Ops and Fallout like you have listed but I do think it will sell better than a lot of people seem to think it will. I'm predicting >2million retail and near 3 million including bundles myself.
RespectThySole
Member
[PS4] 1100k
[XB1] 1050k
[3DS] 470k
[WIU] 350k
Software:
1. Black Ops 3 ~ 4.5-5 million
2. Fallout 4 ~ 3-3.5 million
3. Battlefront ~ 1.5-2 million
4. NBA 2K16
5. Madden 16
6. Destiny: The Taken King
7. FIFA 16
8. Disney Infinity 3.0
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. Syndicate (not sure about this spot)
I think XB1 won Black Friday by a decent amount, but pre-orders for Battlefront & CoD bundles will give PS4 a narrow victory.
[XB1] 1050k
[3DS] 470k
[WIU] 350k
Software:
1. Black Ops 3 ~ 4.5-5 million
2. Fallout 4 ~ 3-3.5 million
3. Battlefront ~ 1.5-2 million
4. NBA 2K16
5. Madden 16
6. Destiny: The Taken King
7. FIFA 16
8. Disney Infinity 3.0
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. Syndicate (not sure about this spot)
I think XB1 won Black Friday by a decent amount, but pre-orders for Battlefront & CoD bundles will give PS4 a narrow victory.
Indeed. GAF always finds a way.
Understood and agreed. Thanks for clarifying. Even more important in this case is the propensity for people to misread the results/conclusions of these sort of reports as it has been widely stated that this report declared XB1 the sakes leader when, after reading over the report myself, I don't actually see that statement anywhere in the report. The lesson here being: consider the source in all its context and weigh it's merit according to the information therein.
I also hear Ps4 is slowing down in germany. Only 32 titles in the top 100 while X1 has gone up to 10. The tides are turning everywhere.
What is all the data so far that we can use to make a prediction, besides amazon hourlys, I heared some people mentioning PS4 doing a bit better at certain stores. Would be nice to have a bit of a collection of all data available at this moment. The adobe report seems to favour xbox for black friday, is there any other eidence that supports an xbox one win
I'd honestly wait until Tuesday for some PR. It's kinda hard to gauge things because technically the deals start happening around 6pm Thursday and I don't know if that's counted for Black Friday. And the console deals went up online that Wednesday night.
So far all we know is both consoles are selling well. Sony has their $299 PS4 deal extended through cyber Monday. But today is the last tracking for NPD for November. It should see quite the boost.
Hockeymac18
Member
I don't think there's any solid evidence to support a win on either side, other than Amazon charts.
Adobe report is ambiguous in its rankings - although it doesn't appear to be in alphabetical order, so is either totally random or listed in sales order.
Most everything else is pretty much completely anecdotal. And probably often heavily skewed towards biases (namely confirmation bias, people looking for what they want to see).
Enter at your own risk.
The one thing that seems to be consistent is that consoles are selling well.
panda-zebra
Banned
lolol
Not a chance. The consoles are way more competitive this year. No matter who wins the month it won't be by a large margin at all.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I would say it is next to impossible.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
As far as I remember for npd ps4 and x1 are tracking well below of 360
Your hell isn't needed especially as I feel your wrong. Past consoles were having 400k months while this year it was common for ps4 and x1 to be well below 300k. Sales were not great this year npd. I admit maybe i read the numbers wrong. But I'm pretty sure this is right.
And it may be the Ps2 I was thinking of. But a gaffer had a nice comparison to show how the current systems were not doing ps2 levels anymore. Sorry, forgot the thread . I also forgot the year for the high 360 sales.
Yea they simply listed the best sellers but never said which one sold better than the other in that list.
So I'm being informed via Twitter and PM that the methodology behind Adobe's info is trustworthy but it is specifically about online sales only. The wording is also a bit imprecise when it comes to actually ranking these sales. Just about the only thing that seems sure from this report is that both consoles sold very well online.
Chobel
Member
I can't see ACS selling more than Halo 5.
Well AC was offered at a discount. So that COULD inflate sales a bit. Who knows though.
This is the most important thing to me. A decrease in YOY is not good for the industry =/
This goes for both systems.
RespectThySole
Member
Yeah I was thinking the same thing, but I think it was $35 nearly everywhere compared to Halo 5 at full price.
CosmicQueso
Member
Yep. No halo discounting means it might not crack top 10. Who knows.
Can somebody with access to the info please post monthly figures for 360 vs concurrent monthly figures for PS4 in their respective 2nd years so we can stop with this "it's down compared to 360" nonsense?
There is basically 0 chance XB1 will be up over last year. The price drops and bundles they were offering last year mean that the console is actually more expensive this time around. There's no reason to expect it to be up. Not to mention the fact that last year's sales were incredibly high to begin with.
Consequently PS4 will almost assuredly be up YoY by a very large margin and WiiU looks to be trending up YoY as well. So, in conclusion, no one console being down YoY does not a catastrophe make.
There is basically 0 chance XB1 will be up over last year. The price drops and bundles they were offering last year mean that the console is actually more expensive this time around. There's no reason to expect it to be up. Not to mention the fact that last year's sales were incredibly high to begin with.
Consequently PS4 will almost assuredly be up YoY by a very large margin and WiiU looks to be trending up YoY as well. So, in conclusion, no one console being down YoY does not a catastrophe make.
Chobel
Member
Fair enough, but I still believe Halo brand is bigger than AC brand (even with discount).
DriftingSpirit
Member
You may want to at least reconsider the impact of those two.
Chobel
Member
Yep, I doubt those two can even push their own sales, let alone consoles sales.
Plague Doctor
Member
[PS4] 1400K
[XB1] 1250K
[WIU] 400K
[3DS] 420K
So the main reason I am giving PS4 the lead is that with all things equal on selling out BF and even taking into account XB might have stuffed the channels more, TR bundle doesn't seem to be moving with some retail musings and PS4 had Amazon high ranking bundles for the past couple months that will be tallied for November (COD and SW). MS to sell over what those PS4 months long bundles ontop of a neck and neck BF race will take a lot.
FWIW, I have no idea what to assign numbers to with regards to the WiiU and 3DS.
[XB1] 1250K
[WIU] 400K
[3DS] 420K
So the main reason I am giving PS4 the lead is that with all things equal on selling out BF and even taking into account XB might have stuffed the channels more, TR bundle doesn't seem to be moving with some retail musings and PS4 had Amazon high ranking bundles for the past couple months that will be tallied for November (COD and SW). MS to sell over what those PS4 months long bundles ontop of a neck and neck BF race will take a lot.
FWIW, I have no idea what to assign numbers to with regards to the WiiU and 3DS.
Crimson_Gold
Member
Halo, maybe. The last 2 will have little to no impact on anything.