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[Chobel]

I'm leaning towards:

PS4 pricedrop at PGW = PS4 wins holidays
No PS4 pricedrop at PGW = XB1 wins holidays

It's not any price drop though, it has to be $100 (and MS doesn't undercut them). MS will surely goes $299 in Fall.

Of course there are other factors, but matching XBO price is the only way for Sony to have a chance to win this Holiday.

 

[Loudninja]

It's not any price drop though, it has to be $100 (and MS doesn't undercut them). MS will surely goes $299 in Fall.

Wow you expect another price drop?

 

[Miles Quaritch]

It's not any price drop though, it has to be $100 (and MS doesn't undercut them). MS will surely goes $299 in Fall.

I think value adds will reign this holiday. We might see some temporary price cuts/offers, but value adds will be top dog.

I can see both MS and Sony pushing three/four games along with one big new release. Maybe throw in some free gold/psplus.

 

[Chobel]

Wow you expect another price drop?

Yes, MS will anticipate the most likely $50 price cut of PS4, and will surely go $299 to maintain $50 advantage.

 

[Sweep14]

This happens to almost every AAA game that isn't GTA or Call of Duty tier.

Most console games on PS4/XB1 are very much Flavor of the Month.

And every time I see the NPD's I just cant see why they would even consider it.

Should Sony have a reactive attitude or a pre-emptive one regarding sales ? IMHO, a pre-emptive one is more efficient in sales and image terms than being forced to react to your opponent's price manoeuvres.

 

[lord_lad]

Worldwide? That second option has no chance in happening. Remember those huge bundles, free games and price cuts Microsoft did last year? Sony did almost nothing notable and in bulk and still massively outsold Xbox.

NPD, yeah I would agree. Depends if Sony really give a damn about remaining on top there. If they don't drop the price this year, it'll happen next year and they could possibly go back on top as a result of that.

like i mentioned somewhere, the only chance the Xbox can overtake PS4 worldwide is for Jesus to rise from the grave, holding an Xbox and pimping and even then, it wouldn't work on the non-christian asian countries.......LOL..so no chance for that to happen.

For NDP numbers though, i am incline to believe sony is more interested to make a profit (and increase the margin) from its playstation division than being 'number one'. I mean.........being number one is cool and all and make for great marketing PR but what's the point of being number one when you lose money.

I'm sure nobody knows but i am more interested to know how much money Sony made from the PS4 versus how much money Microsoft loses from the Xbox pricedrop/kinect unbundling since the consoles debut.

Phil Spencer and the Xbox team needs to be thankful that they have the backing of Microsoft and its moneybank to support them because any other company would've just call it a day from the initial Xbox One fiasco. It is through sheer force of will (and plenty of cash backing) that the Xbox One has achieved what it got now (for US & UK, the rest of the world is still gg for Xbox though).

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Both good numbers from Microsoft and Sony.

 

[lord_lad]

Yes, MS will anticipate the most likely $50 price cut of PS4, and will go $299 to maintain $50 advantage.

Can i expect Microsoft to pay for my mortgage and student loans too if i buy an Xbox One next year?

Going by the trend since its launch....in 2017, buy an Xbox One and it will comes with a $2000 PC will be inevitable.

 

[OléGunner]

TR will have big sales in the UK, will be interesting with it releasing on national Fallout 4 day. In mainland europe sales will bomb hard, there are just not enough Xbox Ones to drive sales. I could see TR selling more on 360 in mainland Europe.

I think I said it in this thread, Microsoft should release a vault themed Fallout 4 Bundle, it would be massive.

Hmm yeah, mainland Europe it's likely a guaranteed bomba.

Should do alright in the UK but the release date coinciding with Fallout 4 is madness.
In fact that will surely hamper it in the USA too.

 

[Surface of Me]

Yes, MS will anticipate the most likely $50 price cut of PS4, and will surely go $299 to maintain $50 advantage.

This will only be for certain deals on Black Friday I think. Maybe everywhere Black Friday it's $299, but I cant see them doing it as a price drop again.

 

[Ambition]

Is this a meme or joke that I don't recognize?

I think he's serious lol

 

[Aceofspades]

Did we get PS4 numbers?

 

[Loudninja]

Did we get PS4 numbers?

218.

 

[Rymuth]

Because usually that's what they do. I mean you should have known by now.

I'm familiar with Wapplew's posts. Never came across as anything but sincere.

 

[Aceofspades]

218.

Thanks, its amazing that PS4 was able to outsell everything despite not having a price cut for almost 2 years now.

 

[allan-bh]

Not a big diff between PS4 and Xbox One.

Microsoft has a decent shot for win august, Sony will win september with MGS V and Destiny bundle, then Microsoft will win october with Halo 5. November and december are completely open at this point.

Interesting NPD months ahead.

 

[Lime_In_Da_Coconut]

Yes, MS will anticipate the most likely $50 price cut of PS4, and will surely go $299 to maintain $50 advantage.

At this point they have to remain cheaper I think. Whenever the price has been even the PS4 has handily won. MS really painted themselves into a corner with last holiday's sales. Now everyone expects them to be the cheaper console for the rest of the Gen.

 

[Loudninja]

Not a big diff between PS4 and Xbox One.

Microsoft has a decent shot for win august, Sony will win september with MGS V and Destiny bundle, then Microsoft will win october with Halo 5. November and december are completely open at this point.

Interesting NPD months ahead.

I have to agree.

Lots of back and forth in the coming months I think.

 

[EGM1966]

At this point they have to remain cheaper I think. Whenever the price has been even the PS4 has handily won. MS really painted themselves into a corner with last holiday's sales. Now everyone expects them to be the cheaper console for the rest of the Gen.

TBH the market has pretty much demanded the XB1 be cheaper since just after launch. The market view is clearly that the XB1 is essentially a slightly weaker PS4 and plays games a little worse so it has to be cheaper.

MS initially tried to alter this perception - sensibly enough - but it never really worked. Since then they've focused on value as that's the only thing that's truly delivered results and allowed them (in US) to improve demand and stay in range of PS4. Unless MS finally manage via Halo 5 and other exclusives to get market to see the two consoles as more or less equal in value (which I think is impossible BTW as third party titles are simply too dominant over exclusives for general public now and they almost always favour PS4 performance wise) the XB1 will have to be cheaper than PS4 at all times to stand a chance.

On another note does anyway have the total amount MS took back last holiday period in US to hand? Curious to see how that compares to the likely 850 to 900k ish gap going into this holiday season.

 

[RespectThySole]

TR will have big sales in the UK, will be interesting with it releasing on national Fallout 4 day. In mainland europe sales will bomb hard, there are just not enough Xbox Ones to drive sales. I could see TR selling more on 360 in mainland Europe.

I think I said it in this thread, Microsoft should release a vault themed Fallout 4 Bundle, it would be massive.

I don't think Tomb Raider will do particularly well on Xbox in the U.S. either. A Fallout 4 bundle would definitely do numbers though.

 

[allan-bh]

On another note does anyway have the total amount MS took back last holiday period in US to hand? Curious to see how that compares to the likely 850 to 900k ish gap going into this holiday season.

Around 630k

 

[anothertech]

I think 3rd party content is selling the ps4. In a much bigger way than most thought it would.

With so many great 3rd party AAA games coming in the Holliday, ps4 is still in a great position. Ps4 is where console fans of Battlefront, COD, Fallout, Destiny, will want to play.

Even casual gamers know about the resolution and performance difference by and large at this point.

And knowing tomb raider will come in a year or so, along with the next titanfall, and promises of FF7 and shenmu somewhere on the horizon, I think it has a pretty steady place in gamers minds atm.

 

[DryvBy]

I don't think Tomb Raider will do particularly well on Xbox in the U.S. either. A Fallout 4 bundle would definitely do numbers though.

I agree. Fallout bundle, maybe even a limited Fallout themed Xbox.

 

[Chobel]

I don't think Tomb Raider will do particularly well on Xbox in the U.S. either. A Fallout 4 bundle would definitely do numbers though.

I think TR2 will do well thanks to massive bundling this Holiday (just like ACU last year). Yes, Fallout 4 bundle makes way more sense, and until recently I thought Fallout 4 well get the default bundle instead of TR2, but... the way SE and CD keep defending this deal makes me think they're sure TR2 will do well, which will only happen if it's heavily bundled.

Also I have this crazy prediction that MS default SKU this holiday will be TR2+Fallout 4 bundle.

 

[eerik9000]

Ps4 is where console fans of Battlefront, COD, Fallout, Destiny, will want to play.

Xbox gets Fallout mod support earlier though.

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

Xbox gets Fallout mod support earlier though.

...and PC earlier than them.

 

[PdotMichael]

People are overstating the effect of single software titles.

The right Battlefront and Cod bundles to a good price would be more than enough for Sony.

 

[dakun]

Xbox gets Fallout mod support earlier though.

I doubt mod support will sell any consoles.. anyone that puts any value (enough to make a console purchase) into mod support would get the PC version anyway.

The only thing I think it will have an effect on is the version people decide to buy who have both consoles .

 

[dead monkey uk]

I agree. Fallout bundle, maybe even a limited Fallout themed Xbox.

I have always found it strange that limited edition consoles are not released for RPGs. Fallout 4, Skyrim, Witcher 3 and Mass Effect 2 would have been perfect. RPG fans are some of the most dedicated and would snap them up, even if they were more expensive bundles.

 

[wapplew]

Ps4 is where console fans of Battlefront, COD, Fallout, Destiny, will want to play.

But Destiny sold better on Xbox one this month. Marketing deal or not, console of choice for those titles still undecided as least in NA.

 

[dead monkey uk]

Xbox gets Fallout mod support earlier though.

If you are into mods PC is the way to go. Looking forward to seeing how mods work on Xbox One (PS4 later) I imagine its going to be very limited due to testing, types of mods and quality control.

 

[Bioshocker]

Very close between PS4 and XBO. Wonder if Wii U even did 60k? Splatoon is doing OK but it doesn't seem to attract new buyers to the platform. At all.

Edit: Oh, 46K. So Splatoon really isn't doing a thing then.

 

[Hydrargyrus]

Worldwide?

This thread is for NPD numbers only.
When someone says "to win hollidays" is talking only about north America. I think that everyone is sure that PS4 will completely destroy during Christmas , as did the rest of the year in WW sales

 

[DieH@rd]

While we wait, I'll throw in a X1 chart with some data for us to discuss...

X1 January-July 2014: ~1,230k
X1 January-July 2015 ~1,457k

YOY rise: ~18.5%

Xbox One has been up every month this year in sales over the last except for March.

Do you have same chart for PS4?

Dat destiny bump.

 

[Lupercal]

Yes, MS will anticipate the most likely $50 price cut of PS4, and will surely go $299 to maintain $50 advantage.

Soon Xbone will be cheaper than a Wii U.

 

[SMOK3Y]

SMOK3Y
Generous Member
(Today, 09:53 AM)

Lol i offered to get her a PS4 but she prefers the older console as theres lots more games out for it

 

[blakep267]

People are overstating the effect of single software titles.

The right Battlefront and Cod bundles to a good price would be more than enough for Sony.

Ehh not really. I think people underestimate that shoppers during November go for cheap products and deals. If the ps4 has 399 COd and Bf bundles it'll do a million easily during November, but a 299 Halo, TR or Fallout bundle will do better than that

I think if Sony were marketing something like fallout it would matter more but these are shooters and in the U.S. COD is going to do major numbers on the 360 and the XB1. 1 year of marketing isn't going to change that. Battlefront is also going to do well

The goal imo is to get those 360 converts over. If your enticing me with s BF ps4 for $400 and I see a halo bundle for $299, I'm still saving $40 by getting the Xbox and a copy of BF. Like last year I would have much preferred GTA 5 than assassins creed, but I could find an Xbox for $320 in December with a $50 coupon.

I also don't think it will be a full 2 month period at a reduced price. Probabky BF week- 1st or 2nd week in December it'll be $50 discounted

 

[eerik9000]

This thread is for NPD numbers only.
When someone says "to win hollidays" is talking only about north America. I think that everyone is sure that PS4 will completely destroy during Christmas , as did the rest of the year in WW sales

NPD reports are USA only
USA =/= North America
Just saying...

 

[OléGunner]

But Destiny sold better on Xbox one this month. Marketing deal or not, console of choice for those titles still undecided as least in NA.

Like what, two third party games have sold better on Xbone?

Maybe Destiny and COD AW that's it.

The running theme is 3rd party splits favour PS4 due to install base. You can bet Fallout 4 and Battlefront will swing the way of Sony. COD Blops is an Xbox legacy game and will sell most on 360.

 

[eerik9000]

Like what, two third party games have sold better on Xbone?

Maybe Destiny and COD AW that's it.

I don't think the overall sales for Destiny are better on Xbox One. PS4 sold a ton of bundles and the regular unit sales were pretty close IIRC.

 

[AmaterasuOni]

But Destiny sold better on Xbox one this month. Marketing deal or not, console of choice for those titles still undecided as least in NA.

There were great digital Destiny sales on EU PSN, I guess that goes for NA as well. NPD doesn't track digital sales.

 

[OléGunner]

I don't think the overall sales for Destiny are better on Xbox One. PS4 sold a ton of bundles and the regular unit sales were pretty close IIRC.

I agree that's even my point. The split for Destiny sales are beyond close.

Then you see big third party games like Witcher 3 where the split is damn near
60:40 in PS4's favour.

I think ESO is one of the rare instances an Xbox One game has outsold the PS4 version definitively?

 

[PdotMichael]

Ehh not really. I think people underestimate that shoppers during November go for cheap products and deals. If the ps4 has 399 COd and Bf bundles it'll do a million easily during November, but a 299 Halo, TR or Fallout bundle will do better than that

I think if Sony were marketing something like fallout it would matter more but these are shooters and in the U.S. COD is going to do major numbers on the 360 and the XB1. 1 year of marketing isn't going to change that. Battlefront is also going to do well

The goal imo is to get those 360 converts over. If your enticing me with s BF ps4 for $400 and I see a halo bundle for $299, I'm still saving $40 by getting the Xbox and a copy of BF. Like last year I would have much preferred GTA 5 than assassins creed, but I could find an Xbox for $320 in December with a $50 coupon.

I also don't think it will be a full 2 month period at a reduced price. Probabky BF week- 1st or 2nd week in December it'll be $50 discounted

So you are agreeing with me in that regard.

Isolated software titles aren't that important but the value of the complete deal. And if Microsoft basically must sell the system for a lot less than Sony and still can't outsell Sony over the year then is it pretty good for Sony, especially they have even more options to create momentum with a price cut than Microsoft.

 

[freefornow]

I'm thinking no price drop for XB1. I have a feeling MS will offer some sort of "trade up" deal for Nov/Dec/Jan. With back compat coming on line they will be trying to get current 360 owners to move over to XB1.

Some are downplaying back compatibility, but it may have some impact for MS and XB1 sales (with the right marketing/promotion/offers etc).

I still see no reason why Sony will price drop! is it 70/30 world wide? I know its closer in US, but overall Sony have nailed this generation to the wall!

 

[allan-bh]

I still see no reason why Sony will price drop! is it 70/30 world wide? I know its closer in US, but overall Sony have nailed this generation to the wall!

They cut PS2 price even with very comfortable lead.
Lower price = bigger install base = more games, PS Plus and accessories sold.

Pretty sure manufacture cost of PS4 is lower than in 2013, so there is no point in maintain the price if they can have more profits with lower price.

 

[KORNdoggy]

It's not any price drop though, it has to be $100 (and MS doesn't undercut them). MS will surely goes $299 in Fall.

Of course there are other factors, but matching XBO price is the only way for Sony to have a chance to win this Holiday.

i think bundling with some of the bigger third party hitters of the fall would do it for sony. no price cut needed. bundle with COD and you've got a winner for instance. it's been more popular then halo for a long time now.

 

[EGM1966]

Around 630k

Thanks!

I remembered wrong I thought it was around 800 K.

So if Sony can keep the gap above or around 800 K MS will have to do better to close the gap completely.

At this point that seems a big ask.

More likely they pull back another 600 to 700 K to end up close. Problem then is they're still behind after two years with Uncharted and other big titles starting to drop.

If Sony can hold them to a small win - sat 400 to 500 K then Sony will be in good position for 2016.

If Sony more or less draw or manage to outsell Xbox over holidays (something that seems unlikely to me) then I reckon MS will remain behind for the bulk or all of the gen in U.S.

Feels like this holiday season will be pivotal for the rest of the gen in U.S.

Consumers should come out on top overall which is good.

 

[Swass]

This will only be for certain deals on Black Friday I think. Maybe everywhere Black Friday it's $299, but I cant see them doing it as a price drop again.

You could get a barebones Xbox One new for $280 last black Friday so I could see $250 or less this year if Microsoft is as aggressive as last year. I'm just not sure they are going to be given Phil's recent comments, I think they are just going to let the software do the heavy lifting this year.

 

[lord_lad]

Soon Xbone will be cheaper than a Wii U.

soon...the Xbone console will be cheaper than the Xbone Pro Controller...

 

[Ricky_R]

Can't read OP. Did The Order chart?