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[DasPenguin]

Despite how much hate Infinite Warfare got even by some COD fanboys, it still sells like hot cakes.

I wonder how many sales it got because of people like me. PSN had a xmas sale so I bought the COD4 remake. Didn't even bother to download the new one and have no interest in doing so. That multiplayer excites me as much as root canal.

 

[Nutter]

Just one correction you need to make, the Xbox number of 450k already included digital. So you need to multiply the 1,800,000 by the XBox percentage of .25

No where does anyone state that it does.

 

[allan-bh]

Ah, I'd estimate like 200 more

Can you clarify if close to 450k for Xbox One is the total or just retail sales?

 

[Branduil]

man, it's insane how 2K has overtaken Madden as the top sports franchise. I thought the day would never come.

EA needs to lose the exclusive rights to the NFL yesterday. They've destroyed American football gaming.

 

[CCIE]

I'm pretty sure Square and the rest of the Japanese companies are ready to pull the plug on Microsoft in general. 29% of the market, which isn't really that good, probably doesn't make up the costs to port it in the first place. And with Switch selling out in minutes in Japan, I'm pretty sure where a LOT of their effort is going from now on

Switch, and mobile. PS4 for the "premium" graphic games. XBox will be lucky to get KH3, much less any of the other KH titles on PS4. Too much effort, for too little return - they don't want or need that market anymore unless a port is quick, dirty, and cheap. None of that applies to RPG's... I would also expect everything PS4 to make it's way to Switch. I think you might even see less support for PS4, except that it is the market leader by a really wide margin.

Meanwhile, they can make a fortune with quick and easy Switch games - look at their support for the platform before it even comes out for a clue of what they are thinking at a corporate level.


Square will be laughing all the way to the bank these next few years.



Just wait to see how much the make off of their new mobile gacha game

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Damn I lost the thread were the PS4 Pro sales were estimated for November + December, I think that was based on a 19% ratio.

Can someone confirm PS4 Pro sales were around 480K (for 2,6 million PS4) for november and december ?

 

[viHuGi]

correct. marketshare is one aspect
and when do you have a bigger marketshare?

A: you getting outsold by the marketleader 4.5:1 and the third competitor has 20% share
B: you getting outsold by the marketleader 4:1 and the third competitor has only 10% share

A: you have 14.5% marketshare
B you have 18% marketshare
you could even be outsold by a higher margin as 5:1 in scenario B and still have a bigger marketshare in 15%



and that was the whole point i was making in my statement. xbox is doing better in the northern countries in europe compared to middle europe. and further into the south it's getting way worse.

UK and Scandinavia (geographically) are doing good / okayish
it gets worse going into denmark, belgium and germany
and it's really bad when you look at spain, portugal, italy and greece

of course this is a simplification and some markets are stronger or weaker.
NL as example. Xbox was always doing better in the netherlands compared to other european markets.

But the main rough tone stands true.
Xbox gets stronger from the south to north. or vice versa weaker from the north to south
nintendo is the exact opposite
sony is strong across the whole of europe


and sometimes i have the feeling people here get offended, when you say xbox is doing good. all is just black or white. nothing in between or a mixture is possible...

yes first time ever in recent history
EA really needs to expand and grow the madden franchise. Bring it finally to PC with the change to frostbite engine and cut the last gen version?
Maybe add the story mode from Fifa?
Bring back manager only mode?

Football is still the by far dominant sport in the US, but people play more basketball on console (and pc)

Sony European sales always have been massive, Ps3 still outsold 360 here rather fast and it came 1 years and many months later with a insane price launch, barely no software and bad reputation, that's how strong the brand is on EU.

It's hard to fight Playstation on a bad day on EU, impossible on a great day.

 

[Asd202]

So do we know how 3DS sold?

 

[On Demand]

So the XB number you mentioned before was incl. digital?

Can you clarify if close to 450k for Xbox One is the total or just retail sales?

Pretty sure he added digital with his estimates

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228740320&postcount=320

He would need to clarify this of course.

 

[onemanasylum]

EA needs to lose the exclusive rights to the NFL yesterday. They've destroyed American football gaming.

Madden is beyond stale, and the animations are still subpar, which ruins a game so reliant on movement. Despite the change they make it feels like the same game every year, they need a shake up.

 

[Mrbob]

Madden really has become boring. If it wasn't for the online league is stop playing.

 

[hanspampel]

Pretty sure he added digital with his estimates

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228740320&postcount=320

He would need to clarify this of course.

how? afaik he can't know digital unit sales for certain
there is the classic old npd report with physical unit sales
there is the new npd report with digital revenue sales
so it would've been the usual digital attachrate estimate of 30% industry average and between 15% and 50% depending on the actual game, sales region, platform and other driving factors

imho that statement was just for the sake of arguing. why would you exclude digital sales, they are still sales and very important these days...

With more accurate info.

Final Fantasy XIII: 1,322,100
PS3: 828,200 (63%)
360: 493,900 (37%)

Final Fantasy XV: ~1,573,000
PS4: ~1,123,000(~71%)
XB1: ~450,000 (~29%)

PS3: 12,075,600
360: 19,719,400

PS4: ~17,500,000
XB1: ~15,850,000

Tie Ratio

PS3: 0.0686
360: 0.025

PS4: 0.0642
XB1: 0.0284

Basically the same % of people buying on each platform compared to last gen. Xbox One being behind in install base hinders its overall share, but more people bought FFXV on XB1 than FFXIII on 360 when you account for digital, so that is a success. I know I am a +1 for digital XB1 when I didn't buy XIII at all.

this is physical units only
i bolded the numbers, that are without a question correct, tho

 

[On Demand]

He would know more than anyone else.

I see your point though.

 

[Unknown?]

I'm pretty sure Square and the rest of the Japanese companies are ready to pull the plug on Microsoft in general. 29% of the market, which isn't really that good, probably doesn't make up the costs to port it in the first place. And with Switch selling out in minutes in Japan, I'm pretty sure where a LOT of their effort is going from now on

Switch, and mobile. PS4 for the "premium" graphic games. XBox will be lucky to get KH3, much less any of the other KH titles on PS4. Too much effort, for too little return - they don't want or need that market anymore unless a port is quick, dirty, and cheap. None of that applies to RPG's... I would also expect everything PS4 to make it's way to Switch. I think you might even see less support for PS4, except that it is the market leader by a really wide margin.

Meanwhile, they can make a fortune with quick and easy Switch games - look at their support for the platform before it even comes out for a clue of what they are thinking at a corporate level.


Square will be laughing all the way to the bank these next few years.



Just wait to see how much the make off of their new mobile gacha game

I mean that has already happened, now it may be the bigger games that never come. 450k is better than one would expect from Xbox but PS4 still sold 1.1M more, it's still only 29% and in the U.K. It's only 20%. I wouldn't be surprised if out of the 6M sold so far the Xbox version wasn't even at 1M. I don't see square announcing any games for Xbox anytime soon and they haven't for a few years.

 

[hanspampel]

He would know more than anyone else.

I see your point though.

yes i know. more than anyone without access to the NPD reports
but not more about FF sales than the NPD Group, unless he works for Square Enix.
and if he does not work for any of the participant publisher, he just knows the numbers from the old physical retail report and the stuff NPD is sharing publicly.


so this would be a question for Matt
do the participant publisher report digital revenue AND units to the NPD and the shared report across all participant publisher is just revenue only?
do they report digital revenue AND units to the NPD and everything is shared across those publisher?
or do they just report digital revenue sales and not units to the NPD?

but i guess this is all heavy NDA stuff i should not ask.

I'm pretty sure Square and the rest of the Japanese companies are ready to pull the plug on Microsoft in general. 29% of the market, which isn't really that good, probably doesn't make up the costs to port it in the first place. And with Switch selling out in minutes in Japan, I'm pretty sure where a LOT of their effort is going from now on

great bait

 

[synce]

I think 3DS growth was only due to that huge price drop, not Pokemon. There was also some modding developments last year which finally got me to buy one

 

[slavesnyder]

We have some early contenders for this year's fan fiction award here.

 

[hanspampel]

We have some early contenders for this year's fan fiction award here.

3DS growth not due to Pokemon, or 29% of FF sales not enough to cover costs of the port?

edit:
ahh nvm. you said contenders not contender.
you're right

 

[Unknown?]

.

great bait

Sure that part was incorrect, they weren't hurt by an Xbox version but the question is how much did they make and was it enough for them to consider the effort in the future? Square Japan has no games for Xbox in development except KH3 but that was announced before the gen started. The KH remasters and all other FF games aren't coming to Xbox. When asked why 2.8 wasn't multi platform they didn't even mention Xbox.

If the Switch is successful I really don't see them making games for Xbox ever until maybe next gen.

 

[Metfanant]

GTAV is amazing lol...and obviously CoD is dead...

 

[Chmpocalypse]

PS5 will come out and GTAV will still be selling .
That game is a monster.

Well-deserved. Great game.

 

[slavesnyder]

GTAV is amazing lol...and obviously CoD is dead...

CoD needs a refresh. The brand is still one of the biggest around. They should stop with sci-fi nonsense and go back to realistic settings.
Expect WW2 for the 2018 release latest.

 

[Humdinger]

Final Fantasy XV: ~1,573,000
PS4: ~1,123,000(~71%)
XB1: ~450,000 (~29%)

Ok, so about 2.5 to 1 in the US, then. That's lower than the 4 to 1 some people were expecting, based on the UK figures. But if it's 4 to 1 in the UK, it'll be well above that in the ROTW, so the overall, global split will be at minimum 4 to 1, probably higher.

250 K for TLG didn't sound all that great at first glance, but these guys helped to put it in perspective:

Ico managed to sell 127k after 10 months on the market.

Shadow of the Colossus sold 94k in its launch month.

Quantum Break was around ~140k. Rise of the Tomb Raider opens at 200k for 360/XBO. TF2 ~180k.

This is a single player linear game with no DLC, no add ons or expansions, no multiplayer, no open world, no RPG mechanics, and it doesn't involve any form of typical gameplay like guns, wanton violence, beautiful men or women, and so on.

Yes, and it's a quiet, fairly slow-paced game, not one that grabs your attention. It's an unusual outlier, in this day and age.

I'm glad it's doing well, especially considering the hell it went through to get to market. I did my part and bought a copy, but I haven't gotten around to playing it yet.

 

[Ravage]

Ok, so about 2.5 to 1 in the US, then. That's lower than the 4 to 1 some people were expecting, based on the UK figures. But if it's 4 to 1 in the UK, it'll be well above that in the ROTW, so the overall, global split will be at minimum 4 to 1, probably higher.

Keep in mind that those figures you are quoting are slightly off (hopefully John Harker will clarify his comments again).

3x ps4

Okay so my eye ball rounding was a little off, closer to 450

Where did you get that 1.5 from?

Ah, I'd estimate like 200 more

Total sales is 1,700,000 ~ 1,773,000
Xbone < 450,000
PS4 > 1,250,000

 

[Welfare]

Wait, so John Harker has been including digital in his numbers this thread?

 

[joecanada]

CoD needs a refresh. The brand is still one of the biggest around. They should stop with sci-fi nonsense and go back to realistic settings.
Expect WW2 for the 2018 release latest.

They should treat it like the flagship series it is. Needs proper servers and hit detection, etc . I'm never going back the way it performs currently. They could literally release ghosts with dedicated servers tomorrow and I'd play it .

 

[Forkball]

Call of Duty will die any second now.

Any second now....

ps Pokemon should higher

 

[Nirolak]

And these changes are happening incredibly fast. It's a pretty fascinating time.

Thanks for the info, though this quoted part in particular is something I've been wondering about.

Games seem to take about 3-4 years to make now, but major industry changes seem to happen faster than that, leaving a lot of products in very awkward situations by the time they come out.

Do you think that might cause the industry some significant issues, especially given the cost of games (and the associated pressure of every title having to be a hit), and the continual rise of expectations that could end up lengthening development time even more?

 

[Inuhanyou]

We have some early contenders for this year's fan fiction award here.

Square Enix are gonna jump ship from PS4 to Switch believe it!

Not that i don't think a decent portion of Japanese devs won't host multiplatform games on the respective systems, but i guess that's slightly less eyecatching of a claim.

 

[ethomaz]

Wait, so John Harker has been including digital in his numbers this thread?

Probably.

He was using about 200k more (than 1.57m) for < 450k for Xbone.

Your math is only wrong on PS4 part that is around 1.3m... the split continues to be 75/25 (3:1).

 

[chromatic9]

Damn I lost the thread were the PS4 Pro sales were estimated for November + December, I think that was based on a 19% ratio.

Can someone confirm PS4 Pro sales were around 480K (for 2,6 million PS4) for november and december ?

For Nov/Dec 18% were Pro units so that's around 480k out of ~1.1m and ~1.568m

 

[MatPiscatella]

Thanks for the info, though this quoted part in particular is something I've been wondering about.

Games seem to take about 3-4 years to make now, but major industry changes seem to happen faster than that, leaving a lot of products in very awkward situations by the time they come out.

Do you think that might cause the industry some significant issues, especially given the cost of games (and the associated pressure of every title having to be a hit), and the continual rise of expectations that could end up lengthening development time even more?

Sorry to respond so late!

By things happening so fast, I was referring more to consumer adoption rates of the games as service model. At the moment, games with the GaaS model are selling more, and at a higher price, than games that do not. In addition, they're selling much more mtx and virtual currency than I think anyone expected.

Consumer adoption has been so strong that I think it is going to accelerate how much and what kinds of GaaS offerings will be in place.

I don't think this is going to impact development time too much. Games were already going this way, but now it's accelerating. I just think that there will just be more and more of everything that can be charged for in games, and support extending much longer than we've seen in prior years.

 

[RexNovis]

Sorry to respond so late!

By things happening so fast, I was referring more to consumer adoption rates of the games as service model. At the moment, games with the GaaS model are selling more, and at a higher price, than games that do not. In addition, they're selling much more mtx and virtual currency than I think anyone expected.

Consumer adoption has been so strong that I think it is going to accelerate how much and what kinds of GaaS offerings will be in place.

I don't think this is going to impact development time too much. Games were already going this way, but now it's accelerating. I just think that there will just be more and more of everything that can be charged for in games, and support extending much longer than we've seen in prior years.

As someone who prefers largely single player style RPGs it's gonna be a rough few years for me isn't it?

I get why publishers are going all in on GAAS (they all see the big $$$) but surely they also realize that these longer evergreen style games mean even fewer game purchases for the average consumer every year. If they're siebding more time and money in a single title why would they bother buying something else. IMO all this does is raise the stages even higher for publishers. There's really only room for a handful of these sorts of titles on the market to be successful so with all of them competing with so many of these sorts of games coming there are going to be a lot of very expensive losers and I can't possibly see that going over well with the often thin profit margins on development this gen. It all just seems incredibly short sighted to me.

 

[blakep267]

As someone who prefers largely single player style RPGs it's gonna be a rough few years for me isn't it?

I get why publishers are going all in on GAAS (they all see the big $$$) but surely they also realize that these longer evergreen style games mean even fewer game purchases for the average consumer every year. If they're siebding more time and money in a single title why would they bother buying something else. IMO all this does is raise the stages even higher for publishers. There's really only room for a handful of these sorts of titles on the market to be successful so with all of them competing with so many of these sorts of games coming there are going to be a lot of very expensive losers and I can't possibly see that going over well with the often thin profit margins on development this gen. It all just seems incredibly short sighted to me.

I think there's plenty of room for more than a handful TBH. Like let's take a look at the Xbox top 20 most played games. All but 2 are not mp games with monetization(fallout and skyrim). I'd say those top 20 games stay the same for the most part and the 20th game is Halo 5 and as were to believe From stinkles still has good engagement. So if you can get a game into that area it can be successful. Now if you take a closer look you'll see that there's 3 COD games in the top 20(that's not gonna happen again next year)? And stuff like Halo 5, gears 4 etc aren't going to continue to stay in that range. So there's going to be players out there to go after

 

[Messofanego]

my wife left me.

Damn, dude. Hope you get through this. Best of wishes.

 

[MatPiscatella]

I get why publishers are going all in on GAAS (they all see the big $$$)

Actually, I think it's more trying to survive and thrive. Really hard to make a decent profit outside the top 10 or so on AAA (generally, but dev budgets vary so the occasional outlier title can turn a profit outside the top 10). These are the games that are selling and delivering revenue over a period of time. A single player story campaign game isn't selling very well at all. (Yes, everyone can name one or two outliers).

but surely they also realize that these longer evergreen style games mean even fewer game purchases for the average consumer every year.

They certainly do realize that. But, as a publisher, as long as MY game is the one being bought and is generating long-term revenues, then that's fine.

If they're siebding more time and money in a single title why would they bother buying something else. IMO all this does is raise the stages even higher for publishers.

You're absolutely right. Stakes have never been higher, will continue to go higher. It's why you'll see a continued decrease in the number of AAA being published, with those that are published featuring more prolific GaaS models, and perhaps even more homogenization (if that's even possible at this point).

Average sales per game in the packaged space was down in 2016. This measure had been flat from 2009-2015. The decline in market sales over the period could be directly attributable to change in release count. Even accounting for COD, however, the sales of the average packaged game was down. This data point in a vacuum doesn't prove your point (for example, digital may finally be cannibalizing packaged, which wasn't the case up until 2015), but it certainly doesn't contradict it either.

 

[Humdinger]

[Re. GaaS] These are the games that are selling and delivering revenue over a period of time. A single player story campaign game isn't selling very well at all. (Yes, everyone can name one or two outliers).

[....] you'll see a continued decrease in the number of AAA being published, with those that are published featuring more prolific GaaS models, and perhaps even more homogenization (if that's even possible at this point).

*sigh* That is depressing. I will hang up my controller if the future is a bunch of multiplayer oriented, increasingly homogenized "games as services." I've just got zero interest in that.

I'm currently loving all the quirky SP-oriented experiences coming out on PS4. Pretty much the complete opposite of the direction the industry is heading, from what you say.

 

[MatPiscatella]

I'm currently loving all the quirky SP-oriented experiences coming out on PS4. Pretty much the complete opposite of the direction the industry is heading, from what you say.

The direction AAA is heading. All the quirky SP stuff that is coming out digitally is a different story altogether. I'm referring to the big budget, 3+ years of development mega titles.

 

[Horns]

All those GTA sales and still no singleplayer DLC.

 

[Square2015]

Also FFXV is the first FF to sell more in the U.S. than Japan.

 

[Syrus]

I dont get how 30% of marketshare is bad for a game. 450k is physical only. Probably another 100k or so digitally.

Half a million sales im sure makes up for the port.

I dont know why people want everything exclusive to PS4.

 

[Fdkn]

I dont get how 30% of marketshare is bad for a game. 450k is physical only. Probably another 100k or so digitally.

Half a million sales im sure makes up for the port.

I dont know why people want everything exclusive to PS4.

The 450k figure supposedly included digital and the profitability of a port is decided on a worldwide basis.

It's not much about wanting the game exclusive and more about asking if they were going to make their money back on the XB1 version.

I guess they did, but probably not by a long shot seeing the worldwide split.

 

[Humdinger]

The direction AAA is heading. All the quirky SP stuff that is coming out digitally is a different story altogether. I'm referring to the big budget, 3+ years of development mega titles.

Oh good, that's a relief. I thought you were speaking more generally.

 

[KawabataSan]

The 450k figure supposedly included digital and the profitability of a port is decided on a worldwide basis.

It's not much about wanting the game exclusive and more about asking if they were going to make their money back on the XB1 version.

I guess they did, but probably not by a long shot seeing the worldwide split.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Xbox One version sells over 1 million worldwide when all is said and done.

Worth it for Square Enix.

 

[Syrus]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Xbox One version sells over 1 million worldwide when all is said and done.

Worth it for Square Enix.

I would think so.

How much was WW split.

I pray more jrpg comes to X1. I know its easier to port this gen so hopefully it vosts less.

I need KH3 though. Better stay on X1.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

The big mainline Final Fantasy games will likely stay on xbox, its the smaller stuff that they likely wont be seeing.

 

[SargerusBR]

IW was the best selling game of 2016? Jesus, the CoD train has no brakes.

 

[Inuhanyou]

I dont get how 30% of marketshare is bad for a game. 450k is physical only. Probably another 100k or so digitally.

Half a million sales im sure makes up for the port.

I dont know why people want everything exclusive to PS4.

If we're talking about globally, that half million is chump change compared to 6 million that we know of.

If your looking for JRPGs on Xbox, you might not want to hold your breath on that.

Of course you could pick up the new Valkyria Revolution if your that desperate

 

[Syrus]

If we're talking about globally, that half million is chump change compared to 6 million

True but im sure makes profit and mindshare.

 

[Loudninja]

I would think so.

How much was WW split.

I pray more jrpg comes to X1. I know its easier to port this gen so hopefully it vosts less.

I need KH3 though. Better stay on X1.

Germany
Final Fantasy XV (PS4) >200K
No XB1 milestone yet
https://www.biu-online.de/blog/2017...en-computer-und-videospiele-im-dezember-2016/

UK launch week

So

Final Fantasy XV - 115,000 - 135,000
Final Fantasy XV PS4 (79%) - 90,850 - 106,650
Final Fantasy XV One (21%) - 24,150 - 28,350

Japan
PS4 -923,632
XB1- 3.791 * No updated numbers after first week*
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1337568