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[jelly]

I imagine the people at Black Tusk have to be sweating after seeing those Halo numbers.

Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

 

[Bruno MB]

I wonder how Tomb Raider ended up surpassing 6 million units worldwide by April 2014 (one year after its release) while actual tracked sales not including digital in Europe + US + Japan were barely over 2 million as of June 2013.

Tomb Raider sales to consumers as of June 30, 2013.

Europe - 1,363,611
United States - 808,000
Japan - 63,512

Total - 2,235,123

Source: Enterbrain, GfK Entertainment and NPD Group.

 

[Primethius]

Just wanted to say, thanks George!

 

[glassgannon]

I imagine the people at Black Tusk have to be sweating after seeing those Halo numbers.

No shit. After that meh showing of GOW4, they should know that the name alone wont carry them anymore.Xbox simply doesnt have those numbers either

 

[Toki767]

Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

Should probably wait to see how much Rise of the Tomb Raider even sells before assuming they'd make an offer for it.

 

[PanicFreak]

I imagine the people at Black Tusk have to be sweating after seeing those Halo numbers.

I don't think there is as much competition for Gears of War as there is for Halo. Halo really ought to be releasing on a different year than the Treyarch Call of Duty games.

Gears of War will probably be ok for the rest of the generation.

 

[Somnia]

I will start off with saying I feel the Halo 5 sales are a disappointment obviously and it proves consumer loyalty and trust is a very needed thing. However... I feel Halo 5 is rebuilding that trust in the Halo community with its multi-player for sure. Halo 5 sales will be lower in November, but I bet it still does 500-700k due to Black Friday + free games w/ consoles, etc.

Halo 5 will more than likely keep selling long term (though in much smaller #'s obviously) and I still think it will end up with 5+ million in the end. Nothing compared to past mainline Halo's, but still really good. It just is not the pure juggernaut it use to be.

Though I think with Halo 6 it will be up over 5, but below 3/4 again. Halo 4 and MCC really hurt the trust/loyalty of the fanbase and just like MS as a whole has been with XB1, they are having to do the same with Halo and I think Halo 5 is a step in the right direction.

I also feel this way about AC: Syndicate, Unity clearly hurt them bad, but I think Syndicate being as good as it is will help the next games sales.

Just my 2 cents, feel free to disagree as it's just my opinion

 

[allan-bh]

Hello, NeoGAF forums.
I really do apologize for not being able to respond to every one of you. I am unfamiliar with the nuances and intricacies of the NeoGAF community and forums in general, so there is a lot I do not really understand.

Hi George, thanks for doing that and sorry for have doubts about the truth behind your numbers, but you know, a new member... confirmation was needed.

You participated in the prediction thread, so have 3DS numbers would be nice for the results, can you share with us?

 

[Japanmanx3]

I wonder how Tomb Raider ended up surpassing 6 million units worldwide by April 2014 (one year after its release) while actual tracked sales not including digital in Europe + US + Japan were barely over 2 million as of June 2013.

Tomb Raider sales to consumers as of June 30, 2013.

Europe - 1,363,611
United States - 808,000
Japan - 63,512

Total - 2,235,123

Source: Enterbrain, GfK Entertainment and NPD Group.

Lets ask George.

 

[EGM1966]

NPD_George is like creamsugar sober

Hmm. Coincidence?

Also thanks George!

 

[ethomaz]

I wonder how Tomb Raider ended up surpassing 6 million units worldwide by April 2014 (one year after its release) while actual tracked sales not including digital in Europe + US + Japan were barely over 2 million as of June 2013.

Tomb Raider sales to consumers as of June 30, 2013.

Europe - 1,363,611
United States - 808,000
Japan - 63,512

Total - 2,235,123

Source: Enterbrain, GfK Entertainment and NPD Group.

6m from SE are shipped or sold?

 

[BadWolf]

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

Dump trucks of cash won't save X1.

 

[Kagari]

6m from SE are shipped or sold?

Shipped. Note they also sold a bunch on PC heavily discounted.

 

[RibMan]

I think they decided to sacrifice units in favor of ASP because Tomb Raider shipped over 8.5 million copies, but had a very poor average selling price.

They're probably hoping the holidays and the guaranteed bundle sales (Microsoft essentially just purchases X number of copies from the publisher to put in bundles and as an exclusive, helps with their marketing costs as well) will make back most or all of their money up front, and then go for the long tail sales with the ports and low price cuts later.

It's a very conservative strategy from a publisher who was not feeling very confident in themselves at the time.

I just primarily don't get why you'd do this with your most promising franchise, though no one might have been offering to do the same for anything else.

If they're banking on bundle sales + long tail sales then I can sort of understand why they launched it when they did.

The last part of your post is why I believe something soured between the Microsoft/Square deal. There's no way that somebody from Square didn't raise their hand (during a meeting with Microsoft) and ask "With Fallout 4 coming out on the same day, shouldn't we reconsider the launch date?". I cannot imagine a scenario where that question didn't come up in a meeting/email/phone call/text. Square must have realized that they would be significantly devaluing the IP by going up against FO4.

I honestly think Square wanted to change the release date, Microsoft said no because they needed it for their greatest games lineup™, and then Square proceeded to announce the release dates for the other versions. It's conspiracy territory, but crazier things have happened.

 

[RexNovis]

Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

I find the whole idea of creating new studios for the sole purpose of producing new entries in existing IPs from a separate studio to be baffling in general. Doubly so when you cancel already in development new IPs in order to continue development of said existing franchise. I just don't see how it could ever live up to or exceed the original creator's vision for the franchise. It's basically destined to fall short with the existing fanbase. Not exactly a recipe for success.

But I digress, I don't think there is any way that MS is buying the Tomb Raider IP. That is just insane. Even damaged as it might be it is still a classic gaming IP and as such it holds inherent value. SE is not gonna let that go any time soon.

 

[Elios83]

Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

They certainly need to improve the game compared to the disappointing E3 2015 demo just to begin with.
But GOW is certainly an other fatigued franchise. I doubt it will do better than Halo although it will launch on a bigger installed base.

 

[Japanmanx3]

Another mod spotted. Dude must be clean as a whistle. We love you George. I love you. The Neo Gaf embraces you!

 

[crinale]

The FO4 did make me a little more optimistic about November sales overall (I know it's just one game).

 

[1st Course]

I wonder how Tomb Raider ended up surpassing 6 million units worldwide by April 2014 (one year after its release) while actual tracked sales not including digital in Europe + US + Japan were barely over 2 million as of June 2013.

Tomb Raider sales to consumers as of June 30, 2013.

Europe - 1,363,611
United States - 808,000
Japan - 63,512

Total - 2,235,123

Source: Enterbrain, GfK Entertainment and NPD Group.

You have to consider PC sales, it sold very well on that platform (3.5M according to steamspy). That and the SE figure is probably shipped (+ DD sales).

 

[Primethius]

Shipped. Note they also sold a bunch on PC heavily discounted.

3.5 million copies on PC according to Steam Spy.

 

[Infernostew]

Shipped. Note they also sold a bunch on PC heavily discounted.

Seen it for $3 on sale on steam. Probably a few hundred thousand chilling in people's library unplayed.

 

[jelly]

Should probably wait to see how much Rise of the Tomb Raider even sells before assuming they'd make an offer for it.

Get it while it's not so hot. Still a valuable IP.

 

[wapplew]

They certainly need to improve the game compared to the disappointing E3 2015 demo just to begin with.
But GOW is certainly an other fatigued franchise. I doubt it will do better than Halo although it will launch on a bigger installed base.

It's been a while since last Gear release, I'm not sure about fatigued yet.

 

[Chû Totoro]

I think mods have disappeared because they may be afraid. George is BIG, real BIG.

 

[PanicFreak]

I find the whole idea of creating new studios for the sole purpose of producing new entries in existing IPs from a separate studio to be baffling in general. Doubly so when you cancel already in development new IPs in order to continue development of said existing franchise. I just don't see how it could ever live up to or exceed the original creator's vision for the franchise. It's basically destined to fall short with the existing fanbase. Not exactly a recipe for success.

You say that but I don't think it's true. Just look at Black Ops. It's not made by the visionary but it's regarded as the best Call of Duty. Plus it's not like a single franchise is ever handled by the same group of people. People move on and change jobs all the time.

 

[Ombala]

You have to consider PC sales, it sold very well on that platform (3.5M according to steamspy). That and the SE figure is probably shipped (+ DD sales).

Yeah but at what price?

 

[Fady K]

Amazing numbers for TTK second month, incredible shipment for FO4!!!
Thanks George ^^

 

[Japanmanx3]

I think mods have disappeared because they may be afraid. George is BIG, real BIG.

Nah man. Both Nirolak and now Kagari are in here. They aren't even mentioning his name but he's still posting hard numbers. Dudes good. Gotta be.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

Hello, NeoGAF forums.

I really do apologize for not being able to respond to every one of you. I am unfamiliar with the nuances and intricacies of the NeoGAF community and forums in general, so there is a lot I do not really understand.

I didn't expect such an overwhelming response! This NeoGAF topic has thousands of posts! Thank you very much for all of the positive support! I really do appreciate it!

I am rather pressed for time with my full-time job, so I deeply apologize for not being able to respond to the numerous people who have 'quoted' me. As I previously mentioned I am unfamiliar with the nuances and intricacies of Internet forums, and the NeoGAF is especially perplexing, so I humbly request your patience as I learn about this community.





Hi Deku Tree! That's a very interesting name you have there.

Activision Blizzard's marquee expansion 'Destiny, the Taken King,' successor to the wildly popular 2014 juggernaut 'Destiny,' is an expansion which enjoyed robust physical retail sales in its debut month.

Within the September 2015 U.S. Games Industry NPD Report, the expansion sold 713K unit sales in its debut month. Please note that this figure includes all PlayStation 4 Bundles. Although this is lower than the significant debut of the original 'Destiny,' it has undoubtedly enjoyed a high digital adoption rate that reaches far beyond the 700K sales threshold because the existing owners of the Destiny game are encouraged to upgrade digitally for a lower cost.

In the October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Report that came out on Thursday, Destiny: The Taken King remained Activision Blizzard's best-selling title at U.S. Retail, slightly above the 200K sales threshold. Again, these figures include unit sales for all Bundles.

On the other hand, the original 'Destiny' Software SKU didn't fare nearly as well, selling only a small fraction of 'The Taken King' equivalent.

we all love you

 

[Mass Effect]

NPD_George is the savior of the thread.

Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

That seems like a terrible idea if RoTR ends up severely under-performing. What would be the point?

And I think Gears will be fine. Like someone else said, it doesn't really have any competition, like, at all.

 

[watership]

That is completely subjective and opinion on your part. You are making a conclusory statement that is not supported by what is happening in the market.

I can do similar... True story, I was in a Game Stop on Wednesday and a kid was trading in a copy of Halo 5. I was surprised and asked him why he was trading it. His response was that he didn't like it and none of his friends wanted to play either. I joked about it with the manager of the store and she said that they were getting a lot of trade-ins on the game which was surprising for such a new game centered around multiplayer.

Now, that is a completely anecdotal story that may or may not be true of other Game Stops or trends nationally, but I witnessed it. Therefore, it must be true. That is no different than your statement that Halo 5 is the "best Halo game since 3 and may be the best MP Halo yet."

I am speaking in general terms about was talking about how the quality of a product doesn't always equal interest or sales. And I'm sure I'm not the first to say "shame about this game not doing better, it was a great game." in a NPD thread.

 

[CosmicQueso]

How far we've come in understanding the state of dedicated handheld that out of thousands of post, only like 4 ask about 3DS.

Fallout 4 is huge.

Gaming industry is not dying again.

Crazy talk .
This month COD , Fallout and BF going to clean up .

Great numbers for Fallout. All signs point to a nice rebound for COD. BF has everything going for it.

Mega winners, everyone else loses. More AAA consolidation, more homogenization, less risk taking, fewer titles released as a result. Even more shooting to get into the top 5 with huge budgets and huge forecasts in place to try and get there. Many more titles will fail than succeed, those that succeed will do so gloriously. Winners and losers, winners and losers.

#GeorgeTalk.

Be cautious on how close to the sun you fly, my friend!

 

[piccio_ssl]

And I think Gears will be fine. Like someone else said, it doesn't really have any competition, like, at all.

Mass Effect?

 

[Alo0oy]

Do you have any sort of data to back this up? Nobody believes Uncharted 3 sold north of 10 million dude. Are you taking into account what 1 and 2 sold after 3 released, the PSP version ect?

Yes I do.

As of October 4th 2011 (less than one month before UC3's launch), the franchise sold 8 million copies.
http://www.jp.playstation.com/info/release/nr_20111004_uncharted3.html (Use Google translate)

It has since sold 21 million units (NOT including the Vita title):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1057088

So 13 million additional units since the launch of UC3, you do the remaining math yourself.

 

[Infernostew]

It's been a while since last Gear release, I'm not sure about fatigued yet.

It's probably not fatigued but I guess we'll find out if people still care about the IP.

 

[crinale]

Great numbers for Fallout. All signs point to a nice rebound for COD. BF has everything going for it.

Mega winners, everyone else loses. More AAA consolidation, more homogenization, less risk taking, fewer titles released as a result. Even more shooting to get into the top 5 with huge budgets and huge forecasts in place to try and get there. Many more titles will fail than succeed, those that succeed will do so gloriously. Winners and losers, winners and losers.

Sounds like quite common thing for any industry as they mature, ever since capitalism was introduced..

 

[maxiell]

Given that Gears is already establishing a base on PC, I can't think there is any reason to separate the Windows and Xbox ecosystem, especially given that the former is more key to Microsoft's future. To bring Halo back to its heyday seems impossible now - too much competition.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

even with his full-time job he is able to make such thoughtful and articulate posts.

what a hero

 

[PanicFreak]

Great numbers for Fallout. All signs point to a nice rebound for COD. BF has everything going for it.

Mega winners, everyone else loses. More AAA consolidation, more homogenization, less risk taking, fewer titles released as a result. Even more shooting to get into the top 5 with huge budgets and huge forecasts in place to try and get there. Many more titles will fail than succeed, those that succeed will do so gloriously. Winners and losers, winners and losers.

It's almost as though you are describing some sort of entertainment industry.

 

[Somnia]

Remember with Gears, it's not coming off a Halo 4 or MCC... Judgement was too soon and didn't sell because of that, but it wasn't like a Halo 4 or MCC situation.

It's also been a long time since a mainline Gears title, it will sell and probably more so than Halo 5.

 

[Elios83]

It's been a while since last Gear release, I'm not sure about fatigued yet.

Fatigued in the sense that it has not much left to say as a concept.
Similarly to the other GOW (God of War), it needs a serious reboot to spur a huge amount of interest in it. More of the same just won't do it anymore even if a few years have passed since the last one.
At the moment I don't think what they showed at E3 2015 is in the right direction but we'll see at E3 2016 how the game has changed in the meantime.

 

[Japanmanx3]

Be cautious on how close to the sun you fly, my friend!

For he is young my dear Queso. Now please, if you will, guide him up. For the world is treacherous and full of ire. Prepare him to steel himself in the salt laced winds of the valleys hidden in the deep shadows of Salesgaf.

 

[nib95]

It's been a while since last Gear release, I'm not sure about fatigued yet.

I think it really depends on how good it is. The reveal was pretty lacklustre. A few franchises risk losing big steam if the new releases aren't up to par imo, including GT7 and God of War 4. I don't think they'll sell really well on just their names any more.

 

[RexNovis]

You say that but I don't think it's true. Just look at Black Ops. It's not made by the visionary but it's regarded as the best Call of Duty. Plus it's not like a single franchise is ever handled by the same group of people. People move on and change jobs all the time.

But in a way Black Ops is a treyarch IP. They basically got free license to go crazy with the base CoD toolset and came out with zombies and all other manner of original content. I'd argue it's exactly that freedom that has lead to their success. I don't really get the impression that 343, Turn10 or Coalition have that level of freedom or flexibility with their respective IPs.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Hope we will see you again in the nexts NPD george.

 

[Chû Totoro]

Nah man. Both Nirolak and now Kagari are in here. They aren't even mentioning his name but he's still posting hard numbers. Dudes good. Gotta be.

Yeah I know he's good but I think that it's a big surprise even for Mods. That's why I think they are so silent. They've checked the guy... and they are like

I just hope NPD_George will keep giving us a few numbers every month and even if he can't answer to everything at least give main games and hw numbers. It's a good thing, very good thing that we can have all this

 

[iceblade997]

I feel Fallout is a good representation of the feast or famine type scenario we see at retail these days.

While niche games are having okay results, you're either really knocking it out of the park like a lot of Warner's games this year, or you're getting notably dampened as everyone goes for the mega hits instead.

Like I look at Fallout 4, Black Ops 3, and Battlefront, then look over to Tomb Raider and go "What on earth were they thinking with that launch date?"

It could have instead been the standout game in a mostly dead month in the Spring.

Agreed but wasn't it a ploy by MS to try counter what they assumed was a Holiday 2016 Uncharted 4 release?

-e- I mean Holiday 2015

 

[CosmicQueso]

Sounds like quite common thing for any industry as they mature, ever since capitalism was introduced..

It's almost as though you are describing some sort of entertainment industry.

Exactly. Stuff's neither doomed nor saved by sales in one month or of one title.

Prepare him to steel himself in the salt laced winds of the valleys hidden in the deep shadows of Salesgaf.

Totally. I thought Kid Icarus Uprising was a bit hard to play too. Maybe my hands are just too big.

 

[Y2Kev]

I would take a huge bet that halo will be bigger than gears any day of the week. Halo is T; gears is hard M. That alone matters. Maybe not launch month due to hardcore but over time no question.

 

[Bluenoser]

Agreed but wasn't it a ploy by MS to try counter what they assumed was a Holiday 2016 Uncharted 4 release?

If it was, it backfired spectacularly, while UC4 will undoubtedly have tremendous success in the slow season when it releases.