• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

Somnia

Member
I would take a huge bet that halo will be bigger than gears any day of the week. Halo is T; gears is hard M. That alone matters. Maybe not launch month due to hardcore but over time no question.

Oh sorry if you're responding to me saying Gears will be bigger, I meant at launch not life to date.
 

FX-GMC

Member
Neither of those sound particularly appealing to the average consumer.

I'm assuming you know for a fact that the average consumer:

  1. Has heard nothing positive about the game and only knows that it has Microtransactions and no local co-op
  2. Will not buy the game because of these things.

Or are you going around

posting your opinion as if it were gospel that everyone unanimously agrees with.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I would take a huge bet that halo will be bigger than gears any day of the week. Halo is T; gears is hard M. That alone matters. Maybe not launch month due to hardcore but over time no question.

But at 935k it's not taking advantage of that T rating, Gears has a chance of selling better.
 
Chû Totoro;185335553 said:
Yeah I know he's good but I think that it's a big surprise even for Mods. That's why I think they are so silent. They've checked the guy... and they are like :eek:

I just hope NPD_George will keep giving us a few numbers every month and even if he can't answer to everything at least give main games and hw numbers. It's a good thing, very good thing that we can have all this :)
Good Guy George.

I legit think he's sitting at his desk at the NPD headquarters...name badge and all. George. Smile because you are our hero. On thus day, you've become GAF legend.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
But in a way Black Ops is a treyarch IP. They basically got free license to go crazy with the base CoD toolset and came out with zombies and all other manner of original content. I'd argue it's exactly that freedom that has lead to their success. I don't really get the impression that 343, Turn10 or Coalition have that level of freedom or flexibility with their respective IPs.

I really hope Microsoft changes their view on studios once their IP is dried up.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Great numbers for Fallout. All signs point to a nice rebound for COD. BF has everything going for it.

Mega winners, everyone else loses. More AAA consolidation, more homogenization, less risk taking, fewer titles released as a result. Even more shooting to get into the top 5 with huge budgets and huge forecasts in place to try and get there. Many more titles will fail than succeed, those that succeed will do so gloriously. Winners and losers, winners and losers.

Ugggh. Horrible. Here's hoping you're wrong and Tomb Raider ruffles enough feathers that a few publishers wise up as unlikely as that may be.
 

Somnia

Member
But at 935k it's not taking advantage of that T rating, Gears has a chance of selling better.

I think what Y2K is getting at is Halo will sell over time more than Gears will, the rating helps with that too. Halo may not move a ton of units every month, but its a series that typically has pretty good legs and word of mouth on 5 is good so that'll help. The problem is the competition is insane around it's release. MS HAVE to move it back to September range.
 
But in a way Black Ops is a treyarch IP. They basically got free license to go crazy with the base CoD toolset and came out with zombies and all other manner of original content. I'd argue it's exactly that freedom that has lead to their success. I don't really get the impression that 343, Turn10 or Coalition have that level of freedom or flexibility with their respective IPs.

It's kind of hard to be flexible with a driving simulation game.

343i added tons of enemies that are completely new to the franchise, added Warzone, and drastically shook up the multiplayer. I Halo 4, they added a widely panned multiplayer campaign too.

We haven't seen enough about Gears but I didn't see any grubs in the demo they showed.
 
It kind of takes the fun and mystique out of it when someone just posts the actual numbers in plain sight. You don't even need a protractor to decipher it.

Anyways, thanks for the insight George. Hope you've got special permission to release those numbers, because you're playing a dangerous game if not.

Have we gotten any details on PS4 sales? Last I recall seeing was an estimated 275-300K.
 

Bruno MB

Member
You have to consider PC sales, it sold very well on that platform (3.5M according to steamspy). That and the SE figure is probably shipped (+ DD sales).

Thanks, I wasn't aware of that. I would have never expected such a big figure even if most of sales were at a heavily discounted price. Console retail versions were quickly discounted too, although evidently they weren't as cheap as their PC counterpart.
 

Coxy100

Banned
Yeah, I wouldn't surprised if Gears 4 has a lukewarm reception as well. It's just slightly more fresh than Halo but perhaps unique enough to get people more excited.

So, when do Microsoft panic and bring out the dump trucks of cash? I think they'll make an offer for the Tomb Raider IP.

Can't see that - but they should have a developer who is able to compete with Uncharted - so Microsoft has an equivalent franchise. I was also surprised they didn't fight more (or if they did who knows) to get Respawn as well - imagine Titanfall being exclusive forever (and whatever else they do)

Also as for GoW 4 - it depends on how good it is for me. If it's stunning then I can see it selling bucket loads. If the reception is lukewarm like Halo 5 then I guess people won't be excited.

I personally don't get tired with franchises - if the game is fantastic, I'll buy it.
 

Bolivar687

Banned
You say that but I don't think it's true. Just look at Black Ops. It's not made by the visionary but it's regarded as the best Call of Duty. Plus it's not like a single franchise is ever handled by the same group of people. People move on and change jobs all the time.

Treyarch carved out their own brand of brutal campaigns and close quarters multiplayer years ago. The studio also had some of the personnel at Gray Matter, who developed United Offensive, the expansion to the original Call of Duty that introduced much of the staples of its multiplayer today. They're not a developer specifically created to carry on another studio's legacy; they're the other side to the franchise and have been perfecting their craft for over a decade.

While some of the original Bungee is at 343 and it looks like they made a great game, it's clear that Microsoft cannot carry Bungie's and Epic's past work into perpetuity. Nor are third parties likely to sign on to anymore of these lineup-bolstering deals after Ryse, Sunset Overdrive, and now Rise of the Tomb Raider. Microsoft is really going to have to step up and start making new IPs themselves, like Rare is doing with Sea of Thieves.
 
Nope, September belongs to Destiny, or Bungie rather

There is certainly overlap in those two fan-bases (When Halo overtook Destiny in the most played charts suddenly Destiny was bumped down into 4-5th place rather than 2nd which was the norm) I do think the two could both work in the same Month - especially if both games stay on the same alternating schedule of mainline release and spin-off/large DLC.
 
I would take a huge bet that halo will be bigger than gears any day of the week. Halo is T; gears is hard M. That alone matters. Maybe not launch month due to hardcore but over time no question.

Does it ?
I mean a lot of the best selling games with legs are M .

EDIT not saying gears will out sell halo .
 
I agree Y2Kev. Halo anyday over Gears . Especially with the T rating now. Gears would need some serious marketing. The reveal didn't turn many heads at all it seems.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I think what Y2K is getting at is Halo will sell over time more than Gears will, the rating helps with that too. Halo may not move a ton of units every month, but its a series that typically has pretty good legs and word of mouth on 5 is good so that'll help. The problem is the competition is insane around it's release. MS HAVE to move it back to September range.

Even that I'm not sure of, it sold 1.1 million on retail in its two biggest markets, and let's be generous & say it's 2 million WW including digital, how many more units can it sell without heavy bundling? 4 million? Gears can possibly do better than that.
 

arevin01

Member
It kind of takes the fun and mystique out of it when someone just posts the actual numbers in plain sight. You don't even need a protractor to decipher it.

Anyways, thanks for the insight George. Hope you've got special permission to release those numbers, because you're playing a dangerous game if not.

Have we gotten any details on PS4 sales? Last I recall seeing was an estimated 275-300K.

He's posting numbers that people pay money for. I kinda doubt he has permission.
 

Miles X

Member
Yes I do.

As of October 4th 2011 (less than one month before UC3's launch), the franchise sold 8 million copies.
http://www.jp.playstation.com/info/release/nr_20111004_uncharted3.html (Use Google translate)

It has since sold 21 million units (NOT including the Vita title):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1057088

So 13 million additional units since the launch of UC3, you do the remaining math yourself.

I can't, because I don't have a clue what they sold in the last four years and neither do you. It's more likely Uncharted 2 (which was far more praised) sold very well for the last few years.

Your guess is 11m+ mine is something like 5 / 7 / 9 in series order.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Thanks, I wasn't aware of that. I would have never expected such a big figure even if most of sales were at a heavily discounted price. Console retail versions were quickly discounted too, although evidently they weren't as cheap as their PC counterpart.

Tomb Raider was basically given away for free in a lot of humble bundles.
 

Hanmik

Member
Good Guy George.

I legit think he's sitting at his desk at the NPD headquarters...name badge and all. George. Smile because you are our hero. On thus day, you've become GAF legend.

ehh...
do not look for a George on npd.com 8o() wauw.. I´m mind blown.. I even found an interview with him.. he speaks like he writes.. damn
 

Alo0oy

Banned
I can't, because I don't have a clue what they sold in the last four years and neither do you. It's more likely Uncharted 2 (which was far more praised) sold very well for the last few years.

Your guess is 11m+ mine is something like 5 / 7 / 9 in series order.

Uncharted 2 sold 3.8 million in its entire first year, people don't suddenly go back and buy the game in droves years after release, games have legs, but not this much. Uncharted 3 was still at #1 in a lot of European charts even 6 months after release (when UC2 was nowhere to be found in the charts).
 

Tubie

Member
Hello, NeoGAF forums.

I really do apologize for not being able to respond to every one of you. I am unfamiliar with the nuances and intricacies of the NeoGAF community and forums in general, so there is a lot I do not really understand.

I didn't expect such an overwhelming response! This NeoGAF topic has thousands of posts! Thank you very much for all of the positive support! I really do appreciate it!

I am rather pressed for time with my full-time job, so I deeply apologize for not being able to respond to the numerous people who have 'quoted' me. As I previously mentioned I am unfamiliar with the nuances and intricacies of Internet forums, and the NeoGAF is especially perplexing, so I humbly request your patience as I learn about this community.





Hi Deku Tree! That's a very interesting name you have there.

Activision Blizzard's marquee expansion 'Destiny, the Taken King,' successor to the wildly popular 2014 juggernaut 'Destiny,' is an expansion which enjoyed robust physical retail sales in its debut month.

Within the September 2015 U.S. Games Industry NPD Report, the expansion sold 713K unit sales in its debut month. Please note that this figure includes all PlayStation 4 Bundles. Although this is lower than the significant debut of the original 'Destiny,' it has undoubtedly enjoyed a high digital adoption rate that reaches far beyond the 700K sales threshold because the existing owners of the Destiny game are encouraged to upgrade digitally for a lower cost.

In the October 2015 U.S. Games Industry Report that came out on Thursday, Destiny: The Taken King remained Activision Blizzard's best-selling title at U.S. Retail, slightly above the 200K sales threshold. Again, these figures include unit sales for all Bundles.

On the other hand, the original 'Destiny' Software SKU didn't fare nearly as well, selling only a small fraction of 'The Taken King' equivalent.

Wow that is impressive for just an expansion.

Destiny 2 is going to be HUGE.
 

Somnia

Member
If he's the George when searching on NPD's site, he has a pretty high position and probably knows what he can and can't post.

Notice how professional and company sounding his posts are? He more than likely is doing this on behalf of NPD to reach out to communities, don't underestimate a company to do that kind of thing to get publicity, etc.
 

jelly

Member
Agreed but wasn't it a ploy by MS to try counter what they assumed was a Holiday 2016 Uncharted 4 release?

-e- I mean Holiday 2015

Yeah, that's what I presumed and then they could only change it to going against Battlefront which is insane with Star Wars hype and waiting to 2016 wasn't on the cards.
 

watership

Member
It is the lowest rated mainline Halo game ever, so by one metric it is the worst.

Metacritic is a snapshot of a impact of a game at the time of release. So if we go by Metacritic, Halo 4 is better than Halo 5. Yet If you ignore the scores, the reviews for Halo 5 easily read as a better game than 4 and even Halo: Reach, especially in multiplayer. I honestly just think people have moved on from Halo, regardless of it's quality. And that's why it's a shame.

I think there is one lesson to learn. You can buy lightning in a bottle. Games like Halo was the right game at the right time, but that never lasts and you can't simply buy talent to reproduce it. These dev houses that seem to exist to revive the past; 343i, CD, The Coalition (Black Tusk) are all trying to reproduce past franchises instead of creating something new. I'm not sure it is ever going to be a successful model and I feel bad they are made to work on other people's IP instead of making their own.

I think it works with franchises where the fans aren't as picky. Sports and other annualized franchises like Assassins creed. And COD is still doing well and they changed the game in 100 different ways, the only thing that stays the same it seems is zombies.

But in terms of 343i and CD they seem to be making games that are still extremely high quality.

No one is made to work on games. They get paid for it :).
 
3PTMZhz.png


Either your chart is wrong or Nintendo gave out faulty data.
They say Wii U sales saw a 40% increase over October 2014 yet your chart says sales decreased by 4k.

"The Wii U console also saw an increase in sales of 40% over last October."
www.ign.com/articles/2015/11/13/wii-u-sales-way-up-amiibo-sales-at-800000-for-october
 
Treyarch carved out their own brand of brutal campaigns and close quarters multiplayer years ago. The studio also had some of the personnel at Gray Matter, who developed United Offensive, the expansion to the original Call of Duty that introduced much of the staples of its multiplayer today. They're not a developer specifically created to carry on another studio's legacy; they're the other side to the franchise and have been perfecting their craft for over a decade.

While some of the original Bungee is at 343 and it looks like they made a great game, it's clear that Microsoft cannot carry Bungie's and Epic's past work into perpetuity. Nor are third parties likely to sign on to anymore of these lineup-bolstering deals after Ryse, Sunset Overdrive, and now Rise of the Tomb Raider. Microsoft is really going to have to step up and start making new IPs themselves, like Rare is doing with Sea of Thieves.

So, given the success of Halo, what was the alternative? There was no one that had been "perfecting their craft for over a decade" to pick up the slack.

Personally, I don't think 343 will make Halo games in perpetuity if the sales of Halo 6 remain at Halo 5 levels, so at that point, they will have been perfecting their craft for over a decade and would probably make a new IP.
 

RexNovis

Banned
I'm assuming you know for a fact that the average consumer:

  1. Has heard nothing positive about the game and only knows that it has Microtransactions and no local co-op
  2. Will not buy the game because of these things.

Or are you going around

Well I said most consumers heard those things as they were the biggest WOM. Going by various tracking metrics across consumer reviews, popular online consumer facing forums, and news coverage leading up to release these were by far the most discussed topics. Microtransactions especially saw a lot of play.

Also I never said they've heard nothing positive about the game I said they heard mostly negative things. That's a big difference.
 
How does someone who doesn't know anything about gaf or the community think to make an account on gaf? I'm calling bs lol.

If the numbers are true, I've got to wonder what the Halo 5 sales numbers would have been like if TMCC had never come out. A lot more people would have been having their Halo withdrawals by Halo 5's release date, and the negative impacts of TMCC having so many issues wouldn't be fresh on everybody's minds. Maybe I'm naive, but I still think digital sales for Halo 5 were a lot higher than normal for a console game. Wrong or right, Halo 5 will have some legs and I think additions of BTB and Forge, plus new maps will help game sales long-term.
 

YoodlePro

Member
What is going on here!?!?

Last time I checked we had almost no numbers, and now we have a new NPD JESUS!

Where's my popcorn dammit?!
 
If he's the George when searching on NPD's site, he has a pretty high position and probably knows what he can and can't post.

Notice how professional and company sounding his posts are? He more than likely is doing this on behalf of NPD to reach out to communities, don't underestimate a company to do that kind of thing to get publicity, etc.

If this actually is an NPD spokesperson . . .

Iff so to dude I was debating with. You da real winner brohan :)
 

watership

Member
Well that's fine and I think you'd find plenty of people who I would agree but that doesn't change the fact that it's an opinion and not a fact. You can't go around posting your opinion as if it were gospel that everyone unanimously agrees with. That's all I'm saying.

I don't think anyone confused my opinion for a fact. Except those who are telling me that my opinion is not a fact, with great alacrity.

btw, Halo 5 is pretty awesome.
 

BokehKing

Banned
There is certainly overlap in those two fan-bases (When Halo overtook Destiny in the most played charts suddenly Destiny was bumped down into 4-5th place rather than 2nd which was the norm) I do think the two could both work in the same Month - especially if both games stay on the same alternating schedule of mainline release and spin-off/large DLC.
Wouldn't have worked this past September with metal gear
 

Megatron

Member
It kind of takes the fun and mystique out of it when someone just posts the actual numbers in plain sight. You don't even need a protractor to decipher it.

Anyways, thanks for the insight George. Hope you've got special permission to release those numbers, because you're playing a dangerous game if not.

Have we gotten any details on PS4 sales? Last I recall seeing was an estimated 275-300K.

Huh? 'Its no fun when we get the numbers. Hey, can I have the numbers'?
 
I will start off with saying I feel the Halo 5 sales are a disappointment obviously and it proves consumer loyalty and trust is a very needed thing. However... I feel Halo 5 is rebuilding that trust in the Halo community with its multi-player for sure. Halo 5 sales will be lower in November, but I bet it still does 500-700k due to Black Friday + free games w/ consoles, etc.

Halo 5 will more than likely keep selling long term (though in much smaller #'s obviously) and I still think it will end up with 5+ million in the end. Nothing compared to past mainline Halo's, but still really good. It just is not the pure juggernaut it use to be.

Though I think with Halo 6 it will be up over 5, but below 3/4 again. Halo 4 and MCC really hurt the trust/loyalty of the fanbase and just like MS as a whole has been with XB1, they are having to do the same with Halo and I think Halo 5 is a step in the right direction.

I also feel this way about AC: Syndicate, Unity clearly hurt them bad, but I think Syndicate being as good as it is will help the next games sales.

Just my 2 cents, feel free to disagree as it's just my opinion :)


I raelly don't believe this. MCC is what fans wanted yes. They don't like halo 4 and maybe they do have something agasint 343.

There are a lot of people that aren't liking the mp as you say (obviously a lot of halo fans wouldn't even try it) especially after the beta. There will always be groups of people who like games and I'm not saying 100,000 people don't like the game but
there are a lot of people who also don't like the product that is halo 5.

Halo 1 did well on reviews and word of mouth because the game was good.

halo 5 doesn't even have btb maps (there is a whole thread of people not happy about the btb maps) It's missing basic things like ball, team doubles and social playlist. I know the maps are coming but boy it's just community forge maps. The game isn't going to sell on word of mouth that's for sure.

I was watching snipedown on twitch and half the maps the chat were all saying how this one sucks , I hate this map and oh this map again.... but this is what they made halo 5 to be.

I love halo and I sort of like halo 5 but I am just about 100 percent burnt out on the game already. I am tired of the map design, the same maps over and over and there just isn't things in the game that I really enjoy for what Halo is. This is such a blunder that it's impressive they worked on this for three year's. maybe too much warzone too much something but it's quite the mess even if it had great sales.


Halo 5 has a lot more problems than just mcc or halo 4, don't kid yourselves.
 

Kathian

Banned
I think based on the larger reveal of details NPD are wanting to address where digital is likely making more of the sales - i.e. Destiny expansion.

Suspect some sort of discussion around getting access to digital sales from digital stores (i.e. Ninty/MS/Sony) is driving this sudden change.

But nice to get numbers - really helps cut through the discussion and appreciate the further analysis.
 
So, given the success of Halo, what was the alternative? There was no one that had been "perfecting their craft for over a decade" to pick up the slack.

Personally, I don't think 343 will make Halo games in perpetuity if the sales of Halo 6 remain at Halo 5 levels, so at that point, they will have been perfecting their craft for over a decade and would probably make a new IP.

Thread needs more doom and gloom...

You guys make it sound like the game was a complete and utter financial failure. They still sold a crapload of games (most games would kill to sell ~1 million physical copies in one month in one territory), and (more importantly) made a lot of money.

As long as they can make a lot of money off the franchise, they'll keep making them.

Now, if the sales of the games fell to niche levels (out of top 10), then you might have a point.

But the game is still selling a lot - it's just not at top AAA levels like it once was. That doesn't mean it can't still be a very successful franchise, though (I'd bet Halo 5 has already sold and made enough money to make its investment worthwhile after less than a month on the market).
 
Top Bottom