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Pachter: PS5 to be a half step, release in 2019 with PS4 BC

lynux3

Member
Globally the PS3 outsold the 360 from launch - the only months it didn't were around the Kinect launch period IIRC.

It never 'came back' except for the US market, and the whole 'PS3 comeback' narrative needs to die in a fire.

Except it did come back and there's nothing you can say to change that.
 
Except it did come back and there's nothing you can say to change that.
His point is that when you compare sales the PS3 was always selling more than 360 did at the same point in its life.

It did of course increase sales a lot when the PS3 slim came out but it didn't 'come back' because it was always in front.
 
Globally the PS3 outsold the 360 from launch - the only months it didn't were around the Kinect launch period IIRC.

It never 'came back' except for the US market, and the whole 'PS3 comeback' narrative needs to die in a fire.

The whole point that I started with is that the PS3 gave their competitor MS a year on the market uncontested, giving up a 10m unit lead. This resulted in:

(i) The PS3 fighting back for most of its life to try to close that 10m unit gap which it only did manage 7+ years after the gen was over (that's hardly an achievement, and for most of the gen that mattered PS3 was behind the XB360 - in LTD console installed base).
(ii) The PS3 losing significant consumer and gaming media mindshare, which impacted sales in their biggest western territories

The PS3 should have been able to handily go on to sell 100m units, but it didn't because of the loss of initial sales momentum (due to both price and launch period) that caused it's sales trajectory to come in well under where Sony consoles had sold in the past (and well under where the PS4 will clearly land at the end of this gen.)

All of this is why Sony will NOT be looking to repeat that mistake.
 
His point is that when you compare sales the PS3 was always selling more than 360 did at the same point in its life.

It did of course increase sales a lot when the PS3 slim came out but it didn't 'come back' because it was always in front.

It was never "in front" until the very end of the gen.. That the PS3 was selling more globally since launch is hardly relevant, because they had already given up a 10+m unit lead to the 360 before they even hit retail stores.

Most of the gen. the PS3 spent trying to claw back at that gap, which it eventually succeeded in, but by that time the cycle was already over.
 
There was a strategic reason for PS3's late launch and high price. Yes, they took a beading by XBOX in some major countries, but then again, it is also thanks to PS3 that today you can buy Blu-Rays everywhere, not HD-DVDs. And Sony, together with some other major BDA members, earns royalties with every Blu-Ray and Blu-Ray player being sold. Which is not bad given that BR is most likely the last optical disc industry format.
 

DonMigs85

Member
There was a strategic reason for PS3's late launch and high price. Yes, they took a beading by XBOX in some major countries, but then again, it is also thanks to PS3 that today you can buy Blu-Rays everywhere, not HD-DVDs. And Sony, together with some other major BDA members, earns royalties with every Blu-Ray and Blu-Ray player being sold. Which is not bad given that BR is most likely the last optical disc industry format.
I wonder if there's enough videophiles to sustain 4K Blu-Ray, since the average Joe is content with Netflix quality.
 
I wonder if there's enough videophiles to sustain 4K Blu-Ray, since the average Joe is content with Netflix quality.

He, I think if there's a single company with enough customer insights to answer that question, it's the one who didn't put a 4K BR drive into their premium SKU...
 
There was a strategic reason for PS3's late launch and high price. Yes, they took a beading by XBOX in some major countries, but then again, it is also thanks to PS3 that today you can buy Blu-Rays everywhere, not HD-DVDs. And Sony, together with some other major BDA members, earns royalties with every Blu-Ray and Blu-Ray player being sold. Which is not bad given that BR is most likely the last optical disc industry format.

The PS3's late launch was NOT strategic. It was a major screw up that cost them a year.
This has been well documented.


After watching the DF video on Vega64 I'm not confident that anybody is launching a console with that tech before 2020 unless they can do something about the potential power requirements.
 
The PS3's late launch was NOT strategic. It was a major screw up that cost them a year. This has been well documented.

It was both. The strategy was to ship it with a Blu Ray drive to push the standard. It worked. The catastrophe is that they were only able to produce the drive is mass quantities by mid-2016, hence the delay from spring to fall release.
 

Widge

Member
I wonder if there's enough videophiles to sustain 4K Blu-Ray, since the average Joe is content with Netflix quality.

I think physical media was still a viable thing when BR first came out, so basing a machine around a drive like PS2/PS3 really worked. Now, though, not so sure.
 

Widge

Member
Talking about PS3/360. So the PS3 clawed it back at the end of the gen, this was a thing that happened.

Isn't the big tale about attachment rate for games though? Sony didn't ever manage to topple the 360 on that, and I feel that it only did as well as it did thanks to the consistent IP investment.
 

AmFreak

Member
There were several contributing factors to the cost of the system for sure. But the delay was down to the fact the cell was not ready.
Cell wasn't ready for the end of 2005 (their first launch target).
Their next target was spring 06.
They couldn't meet that either so it became end of 06 (spring 07 for europe).
Cell was ready somewhere between these dates (end of 05-end of 06).
The reason they launched at the end of 06 and 5 months later in europe was blu-ray, because it was never ready before that date.
 
My money is still on the Raven Ridge APU, with modified gpu bits. Early benchmarks leaked, and are looking pretty good. Grey Hawk would be better, and is set for 2019, but i'm not sure if it would be ready to build a console around by that time.
 

Trago

Member
"Stuck with" is a little harsh, but correct.

AMD may be relegated to second fiddle, but they produce some excellent bang-for-buck hardware and play an important role in keeping the industry moving.

Maybe they'll make a decent jump with Navi.
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
It was both. The strategy was to ship it with a Blu Ray drive to push the standard. It worked. The catastrophe is that they were only able to produce the drive is mass quantities by mid-2016, hence the delay from spring to fall release.

It does help when your partner (IBM) sells the chip (the PPE core) you helped them build to the competition (MS) and the competition rushes to market without completing QA of the SoC (hello RRoD issue... :/)...
 
Pachter aside I wouldn't want the PS5 to be a half step

for me the number represents a full console cycle... and now that we went back to X86 architecture for PlayStation the better have BC
 

AmyS

Member
I honestly believe we will get something akin to a custom Zen APU with Navi or something similar in architecture.

That's pretty much a given.

The question is, how much semi-custom Zen and Navi silicon will PS5 be packing? (CPU cores & threads, GPU Compute Units / stream processors, etc) at what clock speeds, and how much RAM and memory bandwidth.
Those are the unknowns, this far out from 2019/2020 and without having any idea what Sony & AMD are working on. Edit: And more specifically, what Mark Cerny is figuring for target performance.
 

Bert

Member
I would love the PS5 had BC that ran games with the Pro patches, I would probably buy it at launch if that was the case.

Do we know how the engines are set up for PS4/Pro enhancements? Could the ability to run even better on more powerful hardware already be there or would each game need to be remastered or run at Pro levels?
 

Papacheeks

Banned
Do we know how the engines are set up for PS4/Pro enhancements? Could the ability to run even better on more powerful hardware already be there or would each game need to be remastered or run at Pro levels?

If they stay with similar architecture and write the API's for the OS it should in theory be able to scale once it goes out to dev kits. It would take some big software coding on Sony's part to make sure it would scale.
 

MutFox

Banned
Not interested in the PS4 at this point.
Only a few exclusives I want.
Though if the PS5 is BC,
I'll jump on, to play those games and beyond.
 

borges

Banned
PS3 -exclusively from a business standpoint- was a massive failure, no matter how you think about it. We are talking of a successor of a console that had nearly 90% of the market, and barely got to a bit more than 50% at the end of the generation.
 

c0de

Member
PS3 -exclusively from a business standpoint- was a massive failure, no matter how you think about it. We are talking of a successor of a console that had nearly 90% of the market, and barely got to a bit more than 50% at the end of the generation.

50%? Not even close. Wii won last gen and sold more than 360 and PS3.
 

Sulik2

Member
I wonder if Nvidia tries something crazy and makes a SOC to try and take advantage of AMD's massive technical failings on Vega and get more into the console space then just the Switch?
 

AmyS

Member
I wonder if Nvidia tries something crazy and makes a SOC to try and take advantage of AMD's massive technical failings on Vega and get more into the console space then just the Switch?

Well, I would definitely like to see more of a difference between PS5 and next Xbox in terms of architecture, with each console having different strengths, like it used to be in every past generation. It would not surprise me if Nvidia gets a design win for one or the other. Now while I do want full backward compatibility in PS5, it wouldn't bother me a bit if either Sony or Microsoft went with Nvidia's next GPU architecture after Volta, whatever they're working on for 7nm for 2019/2020.
 

DonMigs85

Member
Well, I would definitely like to see more of a difference between PS5 and next Xbox in terms of architecture, with each console having different strengths, like it used to be in every past generation. It would not surprise me if Nvidia gets a design win for one or the other. Now while I do want full backward compatibility in PS5, it wouldn't bother me a bit if either Sony or Microsoft went with Nvidia's next GPU architecture after Volta, whatever they're working on for 7nm for 2019/2020.
But what about the CPU? Other than Apple's chips no ARM design can approach the IPC and performance level of Ryzen or Intel's Core chips. I don't want a next-gen console with 16 Cortex A73 or Denver cores.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
But what about the CPU? Other than Apple's chips no ARM design can approach the IPC and performance level of Ryzen or Intel's Core chips. I don't want a next-gen console with 16 Cortex A73 or Denver cores.

I would love to see an Apple / Sony partnership on the PS5. Apple’s silicon teams have been on a tear for years. If their GPU work started with the A11 winds up being competitive then things get really interesting, though I don’t really see the necessary business synergies without being part of the same organization – and I’m afraid that’s only the stuff of fangirl dreams.
 

c0de

Member
I would love to see an Apple / Sony partnership on the PS5. Apple’s silicon teams have been on a tear for years. If their GPU work started with the A11 winds up being competitive then things get really interesting, though I don’t really see the necessary business synergies without being part of the same organization – and I’m afraid that’s only the stuff of fangirl dreams.

You can say goodbye than to bc.
 
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