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PlayStation 4 hits 20.2 million units sold worldwide (high sodium content warning)

There'll never be any way to officially mark this as a statistic, but I'm starting to think that increasing digital sales are creating a growing market of "slowburn console sales". There is legitimate convenience in the All Digital Future™ for -some- people and they shouldn't be ignored. In previous generations you could more easily write this off as more standard month-to-month stuff with other metrics measurable in the open.

What makes things different this time is inability to track any specific software from selling more units over time if this market progressively leans more digital in sales. Hell, hidden digital data is what gives us hope for more niche games. We can only estimate based on tie ratio, but that -is- data that the hardware makers would have. Of course, NPD could solve much of the mystery if they could wrangle the corporations into releasing their digital data for NA. Boo.

In other words, it turns other games into long-runners without ever being seen in NPD and the effect slowballs over time despite physical software revenue dropping Y/O/Y and more first-party games looking like they're in "bomba" territory. This probably adds a bump of a few hundred k globally every month that are essentially sold in the shadows and do not contribute to any public data other than +1 NPD console sale. Or, even harder to track would be the fact that these sorts of players could be more likely to buy used hardware.

This is probably the largest current sales expansion area and it's a shame we know so little of it. Good grief I have no idea why I find sales numbers so interesting. I'd give a kidney for access to the big reports. Twisted hobby.
 
How are the numbers in Japan?

Getting better now that they've started to release games that actually appeal to Japan. It sold 46k last week, which made it the best selling hardware for that week. Dragon Quest Heroes helped push the numbers up. Yakuza 0 releases this week.
 

Kosma

Banned
Persona 5 is exactly the type of game that has given the Playstation brand such broad appeal in the last 20 years.

Will it sell millions? No.

Will it be yet another reason to get a PS4 over an xbox for hundreds of thousands of jrpg fans? Yep.
 
COD will be up YOY this year. That should help somewhat.

Next 2 years after that though is probably gonna be another huge decline.

Would you mind telling us how bloodborne pre order numbers are looking now that we are less than a month away from release? I recall you or another retail gaffer saying the numbers for bloodborne were well below past dark souls games and also well below the order. Bloodborne shows more than any other game that hype on gaming forums means shit all in the real world and people don't care about the majority of exclusives. It's all about those multiplatform games. :p
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
Well, when one implies something is a system seller by stating that we should 'wait and see when these big titles hit', they're implying that it is at once elevated to the realm where other's of its ilk reside. System sellers are the CoDs and FIFA titles. The third party annualized franchises that sell millions and draw people into the new generation in earnest. Sure, P5 might sell a fair measure of systems in Japan. In Europe and North America, though? I don't foresee it performing any worse or better for the system's sales than LBP3 did, or DC, or Infamous. They're fundamentally blips in the data, things we can't actually quantify as being the main draw for a vast majority of those purchasing.

inFamous and Driveclub are games that sold units. I'm not sure what your definition of a "system seller" even is at this point, if those games are somehow excluded. Only AAA, big budget titles count, of which inFamous and Driveclub would be included? Is Uncharted 4 also going to be excluded from your list, for some reason? Or are you just dismissing the relevance of the games you personally don't care about?
 
Getting better now that they've started to release games that actually appeal to Japan. It sold 46k last week, which made it the best selling hardware for that week. Dragon Quest Heroes helped push the numbers up. Yakuza 0 releases this week.
i hope this isn't the beginning of the end for yakuza. I haven't been keeping up with sales but I think sega was disappointed with how the most recent installments were selling.
 
You'll have to provide a source on that. Yakuza is still selling very well in Japan.

Yeah, Yakuza 5 was the second best selling game in the series and Yakuza: Ishin, which is a spinoff, sold only slightly less than of the End, which was the best selling spinoff title. It sold much more than the first spinoff (Kenzan).
 
A genuine question: What can save PS4 in Japan? Morpheus? Yakuza? Eroge and VN? Idolmaster? Final Fantasy XV? Or none? I am a bit depressed when seeing that Japan has evolved into a mobile game market recently.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Thought you guys here may be interested in this.

Shows how each console generation (6,7,8) has sold over it's first 7 years. Gen 7 sales were lead by the explosion of the Wii. My predictions are in green.

shipped_zpsllsk31mb.jpg


LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m
 
A genuine question: What can save PS4 in Japan? Morpheus? Yakuza? Eroge and VN? Idolmaster? Final Fantasy XV? Or none? I am a bit depressed when seeing that Japan has evolved into a mobile game market recently.

1 game isnt going to do it. It needs consistent support from the big japanese publishers.

XV will help alot but it needs help.
 
i hope this isn't the beginning of the end for yakuza. I haven't been keeping up with sales but I think sega was disappointed with how the most recent installments were selling.


You can't just keep saying things like this with out sources. No wonder people don't take you seriously sometimes.
 

Jomjom

Banned
You can't just keep saying things like this with out sources. No wonder people don't take you seriously sometimes.

Hey it's OK he says he hasn't been keeping up with sales. Right there he's letting people know he doesn't expect them to take him seriously already.
 
If so, how come PS4 sales have been so bad in Japan? Maybe it is true that Japanese AAA games are gradually vanishing.

Because Japanese games have only recently started showing up. Japanese devs were much slower to transition to the PS4. But they seem to be getting things in place now.
 
Because Japanese games have only recently started showing up. Japanese devs were much slower to transition to the PS4. But they seem to be getting things in place now.

Because the vast majority of them are cross gen, no reason to buy a PS4 when you can play on a system you already own.
I see. I think Sony should have dropped support for PS3 in Japan already. Cross-gen is a thing of the past and need to die ASAP. If Sony really want to see a boost in PS4 sales, they should switch every 3rd party game development from PS3 to PS4. As consumers can't find their favorite games on their old console any more, they will have to jump to PS4 bandwagon to continuously play their games.
 

Skeff

Member
I see. I think Sony should have dropped support for PS3 in Japan already. Cross-gen is a thing of the past and need to die ASAP. If Sony really want to see a boost in PS4 sales, they should switch every 3rd party game development from PS3 to PS4. As consumers can't find their favorite games on their old console any more, they will have to jump to PS4 bandwagon to continuously play their games.

That's not really sonys decision though it's up to the third parties, at least they have gone cross gen now, p5 ps4 announcement indicates that was a late decision in some cases.
 
I see. I think Sony should have dropped support for PS3 in Japan already. Cross-gen is a thing of the past and need to die ASAP. If Sony really want to see a boost in PS4 sales, they should switch every 3rd party game development from PS3 to PS4. As consumers can't find their favorite games on their old console any more, they will have to jump to PS4 bandwagon to continuously play their games.

Thing is, if they do that they will have to pay huge amount of money to compensate the amount of lost sales from last gen. Just look at DQ Heroes, half of the sales are on PS3.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
The PS4 certainly will not do as well as the PS1, PS2 or PS3 in Japan.

In fact I'd be surprised if the PS4 is able to even achieve more than 2/3 of the PS3 lifetime sales.

There are a number of factors why sales of the PS4 haven't taken off. Last generation Japan saw some of the highest hardware and software revenue and figures, as did the west. However after almost a decade with no new consoles the pent up demand in the West meant that PS4 and Xbox One had the best first quarter sales of all time (Even the Wii U did well) where as in Japan we saw the opposite with the PS4, Wii U and Xbox One seeing much lower than expected opening week sales. Much less than say the PS2 or Wii.

So whilst the West has responded with open arms, Japan has not. In fact this last year saw the Japanese console market dip again YOY which has been happening since 2007 (Wii's first full year). The PS4 and Wii U have been out for some time now and as with last gen the console market saw a spike when the PS3/Wii was released, same with the PS2 as well. Yet this time, with the launch of Wii U and PS4 we can see that revenue has continued to decline.

The main reason why is because of the rise of portable and mobile gaming. The younger crowd prefers to play more social games on Mobile and Portable consoles compared to the home console. So it's not that gaming has declined in Japan it's that home consoles are no longer relevant whilst Portable consoles are (opposite in the west) and the global phenomenon that is mobile gaming has also taken over with the average consumer preferring to spend a lot less on a mobile game than buy a dedicated home console + expensive games.

Console gaming is not dead, but it is declining in terms of users and revenue. That being said, Japanese developers in the past were trying to cater to western tastes over Japanese tastes as they saw the decline in Japan coming. All this did was push the decline to an even faster rate. Japanese gamers will still buy Japanese orientated games in high numbers and so titles like Dragon Quest Heroes and Final Fantasy 15 will sell consoles, even western games have started to become somewhat popular and so these titles will allow console sales to increase but due to the reasons above they're not going to reach PS2 or even PS3 levels of sales.
 

ponziacs

Banned
Thought you guys here may be interested in this.

Shows how each console generation (6,7,8) has sold over it's first 7 years. Gen 7 sales were lead by the explosion of the Wii. My predictions are in green.

shipped_zpsllsk31mb.jpg


LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m

can you redo that chart without the wii u and it's ~1 year release before the ps4/xbox?
 

Game4life

Banned
Why?

Well if you exclude Wii U from Gen 8 then we track PS4/Xbox One total sales for 2013 and 2014 as year 1 and 2. Prediction is again green X's.

Shipped%202_zpstasrgv1x.jpg

The reason is Nintendo's target audience may have moved on but not necessarily Sony's and Microsoft's. So Nintendo's poor performance should not necessarily drag down growth predictions when it comes to the health of the traditional gaming market.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
The reason is Nintendo's target audience may have moved on but not necessarily Sony's and Microsoft's. So Nintendo's poor performance should not necessarily drag down growth predictions when it comes to the health of the traditional gaming market.

The gamecube and Xbox didn't exactly do amazing either but I've still included them in Gen 6.

If we start excluding stuff then it defeats the object of what I'm trying to track. Take out the Wii sales and Gen 6 never goes under Gen 7 as an example.

Sure we can break down sales per console but that's not really what I'm trying to show in the graph.
 

Rymuth

Member
How to save the PS4 in Japan:


  • Release an exclusive game with the collect-a-thon nature of Youkai Watch coupled with the treadmill system of Monster Hunter
  • Make the grind brutal
  • Include a digital companion app that can be downloaded on the Vita. This app consists of a match-3 game ala Puzzle&Dragon that you can play on the way to and from work, to gain resources and in-game currency to level up faster. This app is completely optional, so those without Vita will not be denied late-game content but it will take them ages to get there. Please understand.
  • Include an optional, optional waifu element ala Kantai collection.
  • Have an anime on stand-by to air on the same day of the game’s release
 

Portugeezer

Member
Thought you guys here may be interested in this.

Shows how each console generation (6,7,8) has sold over it's first 7 years. Gen 7 sales were lead by the explosion of the Wii. My predictions are in green.

shipped_zpsllsk31mb.jpg


LTD for each generation-
Gen 6 - 200m
Gen 7 - 280m
Gen 8 - +41m

I would be interested in Gen7 without Wii figure, it's bloated by casual/non-gamer sales, which it deserved and I owned one, but I personally I felt like it catered to a different market and didn't get big third party games like Fallout, ME, GTA, AC, etc.
 

Past

Member
Persona 5 is exactly the type of game that has given the Playstation brand such broad appeal in the last 20 years.

Will it sell millions? No.

Will it be yet another reason to get a PS4 over an xbox for hundreds of thousands of jrpg fans? Yep.

You don't think it will sell millions? Persona 4 Golden on the Vita sold 900k. Persona 5 will definitely sell millions on the PS3/PS4, especially with the lack of JRPGs on the PS4.
 

BigDug13

Member
People who see this gen having less sales then last gen as an indicator that consoles are dying are not being realistic.

The Wii created a console market out of thin air. Grandpas and soccer moms were not game console buyers in the past. Wii created a NEW console market out of thin air and did nothing to cater to that same crowd with the Wii-U.

I predict that overall console sales will decrease, but that the PS4/XBO total sales numbers will be similar to PS360 total sales numbers, leaving Nintendo as the console that truly got burned this gen. (and to a lesser extent, Xbox getting burned by being outsold by PS4 2:1 compared to close to 1:1 for PS360)

The fact that the Wii made a market out of nothing means there's no possible way this gen doesn't see a contraction in overall sales. But that doesn't mean the console market is suddenly dwindling or is unhealthy. It just means that market Nintendo got onboard for one and only one generation is gone now.
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
You don't think it will sell millions? Persona 4 Golden on the Vita sold 900k. Persona 5 will definitely sell millions on the PS3/PS4, especially with the lack of JRPGs on the PS4.

Multiple millions worldwide is insane. Persona 5 will definitely sell over 1 million copies, but 2+ million is very unlikely.
 
1 game isnt going to do it. It needs consistent support from the big japanese publishers.

XV will help alot but it needs help.

FFXV, Resident Evil 7, Street Fighter V, Persona 5 (on PS3 too though), Deep Down. Funny most of those are Capcom games. SE is almost completely focused on the Western market.
 

FluxWaveZ

Member
FFXV, Resident Evil 7, Street Fighter V, Persona 5 (on PS3 too though), Deep Down. Funny most of those are Capcom games. SE is almost completely focused on the Western market.

FFXV isn't coming out anytime soon, Resident Evil 7 hasn't been announced, SFV is also not releasing anytime soon, Persona 5 is on the PS3 (as you mention), who knows when Deep Down is happening... That's kind of the problem he was pointing out.

At least recently, there's Dragon Quest Heroes, Yakuza Zero and Bloodborne. It's that kind of consistent support the PS4 would need over there, and only one of those three games is a PS4 exclusive.

Persona 4G sold 800k on Vita. 2 million on PS3 and PS4 is not that unlikely.

2 million LTD is possible, but I'm mainly talking any amount much more than that. The franchise has been growing in renown over the 7 years since its last mainline release, but I don't think it's going to explode that much. Persona 5 could be the series' true watershed moment where it becomes much more recognized, particularly in the west, though.
 
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