Its a respected name, that i think will get into the headlines once it coes out and gets critical acclaim. Being on a console this time(most importantly an exclusive of a newly released one) instead of a handheld i think will give the opportunity to grow its install base significantly. Only AAA big budget games usually get the amount of attention and word of mouth the Persona 5 trailers get every time one shows up. I think there is a lot of potential there for growth
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PlayStation 4 hits 20.2 million units sold worldwide (high sodium content warning)
- Thread starter JehutyRunner
- Start date
Its a respected name, that i think will get into the headlines once it coes out and gets critical acclaim. Being on a console this time(most importantly an exclusive of a newly released one) instead of a handheld i think will give the opportunity to grow its install base significantly. Only AAA big budget games usually get the amount of attention and word of mouth the Persona 5 trailers get every time one shows up. I think there is a lot of potential there for growth
GloriousBagel
Banned
A little bit of an overstatement but Persona 5 has gotten a good amount of attention. For good reason too. Being on the PS4 will definitely help P5's sales.
XxRampage07xX
Member
which might be a good thing. I really want this generation to last shorter than last-gen
which might be a good thing. I really want this generation to last shorter than last-gen
7th gen was an outlier in more ways than one. Sony and MS blew more their budgets way more than they should have in the effort to go bleeding edge, and thus the consumers paid for it because they had to make up their loss leading strategies.
This gen, they did not go that route, so outside of just wanting to make money, there's no reason the gen should not go back to being 6-7 years instead of 8-9 years. Especially since the parts are so standardized, it should be easy to make a new console with BC enabled too, which is good for people who want that sort of thing
Even with the decline in sales, I would guess that Advanced Warfare is the second biggest game to ever come out in the first year of a PlayStation or Xbox platform, after Grand Theft Auto III. You have to keep in mind that it was not previously routine for massive franchises to appear so early in a console's lifespan, because the most popular ones outside of Madden were not annualized. Nothing that came out in the first two years of Xbox 360 or PS3 were as popular, despite how many of them may have reviewed better.
Throw in some big new franchises like Watch Dogs and Destiny, which seemed to have not been impacted at all by review scores, and you've got a system that has no problem selling to mainstream consumers before it even gets an initial price cut. Obviously, you could argue that something like Bloodborne will be the first game that is held in really high regard among enthusiasts the way an Ico or Devil May Cry was, but that is really just supplemental to what is moving hardware. The software that was going to sell a reasonably priced system in droves was already there (and largely from the same two third parties). Sony's goal should be to maintain some variety in the lineup, which hopefully stuff like Bloodborne, Until Dawn, and some other games can accomplish.
Throw in some big new franchises like Watch Dogs and Destiny, which seemed to have not been impacted at all by review scores, and you've got a system that has no problem selling to mainstream consumers before it even gets an initial price cut. Obviously, you could argue that something like Bloodborne will be the first game that is held in really high regard among enthusiasts the way an Ico or Devil May Cry was, but that is really just supplemental to what is moving hardware. The software that was going to sell a reasonably priced system in droves was already there (and largely from the same two third parties). Sony's goal should be to maintain some variety in the lineup, which hopefully stuff like Bloodborne, Until Dawn, and some other games can accomplish.
Bare Grills
Member
I wonder what treyarch has in store for the next call of duty. I haven't enjoyed a call of duty since black ops. I want the next one to be good so I can return to the franchise.
Final Verdict
Member
I agree.
I think that there are 2 different ways things could play out:
1). Sony continues to sell well at the pace they are at, makes some game bundles throughout the year, and does a pricecut to $350 for the holiday. Their 1st party games do good, but the only real standout is UC4.
2.) Sony cuts the price to $299 at E3, and capitalizes off of marketing with 3rd party games like MGSV, Batman, and maybe Star Wars BF? First Party games all do really well with a few surprises hitting Holiday 2015, and NMS becoming a smash hit. Also they introduce a Uncharted Bundle for the Holiday for $330.
They are both sort of extreme scenarios of what could happen, and Sony will probably land somewhere in the middle here, but depending on which scenario they are closer to will determine just how well PS4 sales will do with the absolute minimum sales for the end of year being around 33M, and the absolute maximum being around 40M.
I think digital plays a role in those numbers. Very small sample but all my friends Bought AW digitally. It was the 1st time any of bought Cod digitally.
XxRampage07xX
Member
Pretty much my thought. Given the fact that Sony already get profit from selling PS4 since the first year of the console cycle, I hope they will keep this strategy and follow it with their next console in the future: same architecture, more advanced specs while still being affordable. There really is no point releasing a beast for a few years along with a huge loss of cash. Maybe consoles are always meant to be cheap and affordable
6 years will be perfect for this generation IMO. 5 years seems too short and I don't wanna be buying new consoles too soon.which might be a good thing. I really want this generation to last shorter than last-gen
Looks like I'm not the only one who only care about P5 and not MGS
To be clear though I don't dislike/hate MGS, just indifferent because I haven't extensively played a MGS title yet. My only experience with it is the MGS4 demo and playing half way through Ground Zeroes.
I'm really surprised you guys actually think Persona 5 is going to move systems in North America or Europe.
Aren't you guys just so adorable.
When Persona 4 Golden most likely moved PlayStation Vita systems? Yes. Again, not everything has to be a huge blockbuster to matter; that's an absurd train of thought. They won't be crazy numbers, but it will matter.
Grinchy
Banned
I'm pretty excited to see what MS and Nintendo do next time around. They both need to do something really awesome. Nintendo especially needs to pull out something amazing after this gen's disaster.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Probably not enough to make them break even, but yes, I agree that the drop is a good deal less than first glance suggests. For my group we went from all 5 physical with BLOPS2, to 2 digital and 3 physical with Ghosts, and 2 physical and 3 digital with AW. The 10USD off plus spend 100USD get 15USD back deal hitting in December kind of sealed it for at least a few of us. Destiny was over 20% for digital if I remember correctly (Aqua please set me straight if I am mis-remembering it), so COD pulling something a little south of that is not impossible. That being said, any drop is still something Activision must explain to investors and those conversations are only going to get worse as the Gen goes on...
XxRampage07xX
Member
If next-gen console still keeps the same architecture as the PS4, I won't worry too much about it. Knowing Sony, they always keep their constant support for their console even in the last years of the console cycle. Launching a new console doesn't mean they will halt every game development of the old console. Besides, I call it a win-win solution for both gamers and Sony as to those who decide to jump early to next-gen, they won't miss any game of the old console. Likewise, gamers sticking with the old console can keep their console if they cannot afford the new one.
I hope Nintendo will pull out a new Wii with new specs on-par with that of other competitors(Sony and Microsoft). It seems like Nintendo always underestimate 3rd party support as a factor of success. Hopefully, they will change their approach with their next game console.
The Vita never hit the mainstream the way the PS4 has, so I'm not sure what lessons we can accurately pull from that scenario. Not to mention the fact that folks bought into the Vita the moment the game came, but were not swayed before then. Nevermind the fact that slow Vita sales being boosted by a single release still doesn't mean anything to the success of the platform. The current sales pace for the PS4 suggests that this won't happen.
Persona isn't going to light the world on fire, no matter how much GAF wants it to. I just think it's silly to put it in a list with CoD or FIFA.
So you're saying that Persona 5 will have absolutely no effect on PS4 sales, when a fair number of people have been saying they've been waiting for Bloodborne and Persona 5 to purchase a PS4? I don't think Persona is as insignificant as you're making it out to be. It's not going to be an AAA game with the biggest of marketing budgets behind it, but it's still an exclusive, highly anticipated JRPG (one of the first on current generation platforms) that will move units for that audience.
Literally no one is doing this.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Ah! You see, this is where you are mistaken; we are not expecting a Fifa nor COD level of success. Rather, PS4 is still going to get a Fia and COD this year, so every single gamer coming over to PS4 because of Persona is ON TOP OF the success the PS4 will already be enjoying^^ Every little bit is just adds more folks to the party^^
OccamsLightsaber
Regularly boosts GAF member count to cry about 'right wing gaf' - Voter #3923781
First amazing JRPG for ps4 is enough for it to move consoles in the Japan and the US for people who still use their PS3s, of course.
Yeah, I can concur with this. It's amazing how much more supported Sony's last consoles are even after a new one is released compared to Microsoft. I still remember back in 2013 the 360 had almost no exclusive AAA games while the PS3 had GOW:A, Beyond, TLOU and GT6. Regardless, I can't wait to see what's in store for this generation if The Order is anything to go by (visually).
And I remember many wondering if TLOU was gonna be next gen only early on at the time. Even offering GTA 5 bundles for PS3, knowing full well it was coming to the PS4. Looking back now.....Sony should not be under estimated when it comes to releasing games, supporting a console with games nearing end of life.
Yep, well said.
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
which might be a good thing. I really want this generation to last shorter than last-gen
It'll probably be shorter just because Nintendo and (to a lesser extent) MS are getting taken to the woodshed. One of them will want another chance and then the other companies will have to follow.
Fine with me. I'd rather have a short gen any time.
Well, when one implies something is a system seller by stating that we should 'wait and see when these big titles hit', they're implying that it is at once elevated to the realm where other's of its ilk reside. System sellers are the CoDs and FIFA titles. The third party annualized franchises that sell millions and draw people into the new generation in earnest. Sure, P5 might sell a fair measure of systems in Japan. In Europe and North America, though? I don't foresee it performing any worse or better for the system's sales than LBP3 did, or DC, or Infamous. They're fundamentally blips in the data, things we can't actually quantify as being the main draw for a vast majority of those purchasing.
Sure.
But is it a 'big title'? I think the jury is still out on that.
I totally understand GAF loves Persona (for some reason), but it's pretty invisible.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Um.... didn't Infamous move enough PS4s to beat Xbox1 in its best non holiday month of last year? If that is not a "System seller" then I think the point of contention is your definition of the phrase...
The Shogun
Banned
COD will be up YOY this year. That should help somewhat.
Next 2 years after that though is probably gonna be another huge decline.
Next 2 years after that though is probably gonna be another huge decline.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Are you basing this of a "Reverse ghosts effect" or do you have additional insight into what this November has in store?^^
Myself, and 4 of the people i play COD with, all bought ghosts and AW digital day one on ps4. NPD is not a good gauge on declines on a series at this point, since digital is not accounted for in any reliable way by npd.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I don't think digital is big enough to off set the decline on COD numbers .
Yes i sure we are missing some sales and i would love to see the data for it .
But we are looking at a decline of millions of units .
Aquamarine
Member
Here are my impressions that I've taken away from discussing CoD sales with lots of people:
1) Digital share is indeed rising with CoD every year. But that doesn't mean NPD isn't totally irrelevant. Maybe 10 years from now, but not in 2014-2015.
2) There is still a decline when you factor in digital. CoD didn't grow last year. That's worrisome for ATVI management who thought the decline from BO2 to Ghosts was a fluke. As aforementioned, ATVI is sensitive to franchise declines.
3) The good majority of CoD sales continue to occur through physical sales. We're not at a situation where digital is even close to getting a majority of total sell-through for big titles like CoD.
4) Declining Call of Duty retail presence affects Activision's relationships with retailers, and many of ATVI's titles (like casual titles, Skylanders, etc.) are extremely physical retail-oriented, so keeping retail happy is important
I think that people tend to overestimate digital's impact on major titles like Call of Duty.
Sure, for super-niche PS Vita games, digital is king. But for retail mainstays like Call of Duty and Madden? Not so much.
Its the Treyarch effect. They are gonna light the world on fire
I was absolutely floored by 360's non existent library in 2013. Literally only GOWJ for basically the whole year. They dumped it almost as fast as Nintendo dumped Wii
Something tells me Microsoft will do it again for the XBox One when they are about to launch the next XBox
(XBox Two)? LOL
CambriaRising
Member
Bingo
Welfare
Member
They're going to drop the Xbox One like the Xbox 1 when a successor comes out.
Xbox 720 to save Xbox.
Mendax
Member
because it will run circles around the competition? two of them? lol
Welfare
Member
I'll send this to MS.
Stilton Disco
Member
Nah. Xbox 1080! Just to hammer home it's really capable of full HD this time!
I think XBox 720 will be incredibly weird name to give when the consoles by then are likely able to output 4K resolution already XD
Welfare
Member
Xbox 4000 will be an apt name in that case.
I doubt we'll get 4k next gen.
Those Black Ops 2 numbers say otherwise.
Agreed. XBox 4000 to save the XBox brand!
It was partly a joke. But in reality, it really depends on how fast technology is evolving and how willing the big three are to take a loss for stronger hardware. Still, am I the only one who thinks it's weird to still stick to 1080p a few years down the line?
RoyaleDuke
Banned
Wow, I still can't believe they've done this much and honestly it sounds like they really need that PS2 success right now. Good for them.
I think a game like COD favors digital quite a bit more then you'd think, its a game someone plays for a year strait till the next one hits, might as well buy digital and always have it on the hdd.
Even tho i agree that COD is declining, Ghosts was putrid and had horrible WOM. People were more cautious going into AW.
1 - I never said it was irrelevant, but i would say that it is hard to judge actual decline when you do not have the actual digital sales figures.
2 - The amount of decline has not been mentioned AFAIK. Ghosts was garbage and really turned people off, MW3 before it was also horrible. AW tends to have much more favorable WOM. And with the PS4 being much more of a sales monster worldwide, COD has a chance to sell more outside of the US as time goes on and more people outside the US are buying ps4s. Yes, i know this is a NPD comment, i just wouldn't turn a blind eye to the realities of sales outside of the US. As far as activision is concerned, i doubt they care if they sell 2 million less in the US but sell 2 million more overseas. They might actually prefer that due to games costing more in europe.
3 - Do you have the breakdown for the COD series by physical and retail? That would be very interesting to see. Obviously the vast majority is buying physical, its CALLADOODY, but with sales numbers so high, digital is a large chunk of sales i would think.
4 - I honestly don't really know much about that kind of stuff. I'm sure you're 100% right, but i would just say, they have destiny too.
I'll also mention that i sold my PS4 just recently since i never played it and am just playing old classic games now. I was a hardcore COD guy since COD4, but i've finally hit the wall where i can truly do without the series. I still have a gaming PC that runs COD Games just fine, i can always buy the next game on steam if it blows my mind, but i'm not holding my breath. If i find a great deal on AW on steam, i will likely buy it since i thought the game was really fun.
End result, i think COD is on a decline for sure, but i don't think it is fatal as many hope it is. Especially if black ops 3 is the next one with a killer zombie mode.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Not necessarily you but its funny how people are jumping through hoops to explain how first month sales of COD have been declining significantly each year and how this doesn't actually mean the series is on the wane.
Remember that first month of release sales are important as its when publishers make the most money off a title as its selling for full RRP.
And it's BS to assume everyone is in fact waiting for BLOPS 2 as the reason for much lower sales. The original BLOPS represented a decline on what was released a year before it so it isn't going to make a big difference.
gundamkyoukai
Member
I agree , it really depends on the title we talking about .
For eg on console i would think something like GG Xrd digital sales could effect it by a good amount.
Even more so since it not out in Europe yet .