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[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Nintendo: Strong first place, double the other two in sales. I think Wii U is going to be the lead platform for multiplat games much like the PS2 was for games in it's generation. I think Nintendo will have a minimum of 10 million units on the market by a year from it's release and I think Nintendo is going to build a very strong relationship with indie developers and build their E-Shop. I think we're currently seeing at least some movement from developers in Nintendo's direction and some movement can lead to more movement if those result in more sales.

Microsoft: I think Microsoft is going to have another solid generation and move into a clear second place. I think they helped themselves a lot this generation building on the last one and there is little indication that will not continue. I see MS as kind of a bridge between Nintendo and Sony's philosophies with the strengths and weaknesses of each. I think MS is going to benefit from their Xbox Live user base and building a strong community of core gamers that is willing and able to pay for the service. I also think they're going to benefit from their Kinect audience they've been building but I think the true test is how well they synthesize these audiences and show a value proposition to cause more overlap between the two. I think that Japan will still be a struggle as well, but Europe is going to move a bit closer to MS's direction compared to Sony.

Sony: it's going to be a struggle. I look at the position Sony is in this generation compared to last gen and I have a lot of issues with them. It doesn't seem like they're 6 years removed from being a completely dominant force in the industry about to launch a highly anticipated followup to the most successful console of all time. It feels more like 20. Everything has been changed from Sony's position. They don't have the same instant cache they have by just being Sony. They aren't going to have developers just jumping on with early exclusives, why should they when there is no guarantee the userbase will be there? I think that instead you're going to see more exclusives go to MS and to Nintendo rather than to Sony.

I think that Sony still doesn't truly accept the idea that they need to regain and rebuild trust. Its not about humbling Sony, its about Sony understanding the position they're in and reverting to what works and making a developer friendly environment at a price consumers are willing to buy into early to build that userbase up as quickly as possible. Its about having that killer game at launch or as early as possible that will FORCE consumers to jump on board... and I don't know that Sony gets that. I don't think they succeeded with doing that with the Vita and I think that is a serious problem.

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

I made it to "Nintendo becoming the lead platform for 3rd parties" before I stopped reading and spent the next minute laughing.

 

[Usobuko]

Rather than the prediction itself, that 2012 thread has a subtle obnoxious tone to it that is almost akin to celebrating their own wishes ( however influenced by current predicaments of the console market ).

 

[Death2494]

This makes me even more excited for PSVR. Sony could offer those who purchase the headset an unparalleled experiece from the comfort of their living room. People would have the best seat in the house. It would be just like being there. E3, Gamescom, TGS, PSX, and ect.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

My point is you had Microsoft's Xbox 360 as the lead console for multiplats and they are swimming in money. And you had Sony's PS3 which stumbled out of the gate, but managed to right itself at a huge cost to Sony's bottom line.

Next gen was seriously anyone's game at that point, before we knew what Xbox One and PS4 were going to be.

Next gen was never MS own since they suck in EU all Sony had to do was come out the same time and they would have won .
Yes Sony got there ass kick last gen in NA last but this is the same company that sold 50 million PS2 in NA .
Even if MS did not mess up there brand does not have the WW power of Sony .
People that paid attention to world wide sales and not only NPD should have seen certain things .
MS was never going to beat Sony by a large margin without EU .

 

[Omnistalgic]

Rather than the prediction itself, that 2012 thread has a subtle obnoxious tone to it that is almost akin to celebrating their own wishes ( however influenced by current predicaments of the console market ).

that's pretty much all it was. My favorite company will be in this position because "reasons".

I never made predictions, but almost every gen some type of roles change. It seems most people predictions were "this gen will be a continuation of last" for some reason. This was after the WiiU had debuted too wasn't it? I remember thinking this is not going to be anywhere near as successful as Wii the moment I saw it.

 

[zsynqx]

That prediction thread makes it so clear how much people believed the concept that the USA=the world. Media sites (Largely US based) were just as guilty with all of them assuming this generation was Microsoft's to take, when in reality it was anyone's to take.

 

[Pathfinder]

Next gen was never MS own since they suck in EU all Sony had to do was come out the same time and they would have won .
Yes Sony got there ass kick last gen in NA last but this is the same company that sold 50 million PS2 in NA .
Even if MS did not mess up there brand does not have the WW power of Sony .
People that paid attention to world wide sales and not only NPD should have seen certain things .
MS was never going to beat Sony by a large margin without EU .

That's my point though. With all the goodwill and momentum that Microsoft managed to build up with Xbox 360, if the Xbox One was the more powerful system this gen and had the lead console spot for multiplats and sports titles, and they didn't totally squander their opportunity, then EU would have been a bloodbath with both consoles fighting neck and neck instead of the cakewalk that it is now.

 

[Ishida]

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

And posts like that are the main reasons I NEVER do predictions like that.

 

[Omnistalgic]

Back then, no one knew that Microsoft would royally fuck up the Xbox One as much as they did. I could see the PS4 still being in first place but you think the gap would be this big had the Xbox One matched the PS4 in both price and hardware and with none of the bad rap?

People do that a lot in GAF, but it's just reacting to what you currently know.

A few months before the PS4 came out, people thought it was going to be as strong as high-end PC's of the time.

I bet a few people now think it's going to sell more than the PS2 did due to this thread. It's all about reacting to the current news and not really thinking in the long term.

True, but it was very very knee-jerk. There were a number of reasons PS3 failed early on and loss significant market share that had little to do with X360. Those predictions were just reiterating what was currently going on, Nintendo sold a bunch of consoles, X360 gained significant market share, Sony loss significant market share. Almost zero effort was even put into predicting lol. It was a bunch of Nintendo going to do it again (it = catching lightning in a bottle), MS going to keep on trucking ahead, Sony going to bow out. Pretty ridiculous not just in hindsight, but if you just looked at European PS3 numbers.

 

[AmFreak]

Nah they were out of touch you see it often on gaf .
I mean PS3 sold that well with all of Sony fuck ups .
Did people really see sony was going to mess up that badly again .
Just them coming the same time as X1 in EU was a sure bet the would win over there by a good amount.

People expected an Xbox 720 and if Ms had done that they very likely would have won.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

I doubt you know this or you wouldn't have picked this post in particular, but Gaborn is gone now. Leave him be.

 

[Boke1879]

And posts like that are the main reasons I NEVER do predictions like that.

There is a reason people make predictions on this forum and aren't analysts for some global firm.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

That's my point though. With all the goodwill and momentum that Microsoft managed to build up with Xbox 360, if the Xbox One was the more powerful system this gen and had the lead console spot for multiplats and sports titles, and they didn't totally squander their opportunity, then EU would have been a bloodbath with both consoles fighting neck and neck instead of the cakewalk that it is now.

EU was never going to be a bloodbath. The market is firmly Sony and PC. The chances of making any headway would have only occurred if there had been a long delay between the release of the Xbox and the PS4. Even then, it was highly unlikely.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

I doubt you know this or you wouldn't have picked this post in particular, but Gaborn is gone now. Leave him be.

Gone as in....

Spoiler

the big sleep

?

 

[Pathfinder]

There is a reason people make predictions on this forum and aren't analysts for some global firm.

Right, like Pach.... err, wait a second...

 

[GnawtyDog]

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

People are prisoners of the moment. It happens in all facets you could think off. Sony as a company overall was struggling, the PS3 hardware wise wasn't doing great vs. its chief competitors etc... specially in the U.S ( I wager most folk here are American - so they usually tend to look at things with an NA bias).

Those things add up to create an unfavorable image of the future prospects of the next PS. Elaborating with some sort of convince-able verbiage etc is to be expected from anyone trying to give a semi-educated guess.

I've made shit predictions too with "convicing" verbiage that has turned out to be baloney.

 

[FranXico]

Yep it was a big case of Sony Too .
The games media leading up to X1\PS4 launch was the worst i have ever seen in all my years of gaming .
Sony Too , res don't matter , etc etc...

Some outlets went from that to the "PS4 has no games, Microsoft is the one and only true pro-gamer company" narrative. Not most, though. Things have gone back to "normal" in a sense.

As known/estimated sales numbers have shown, thankfully consumers are too intelligent to fall for that.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

At the time I thought Sony was going to release another expensive console, and I really expected them to double down on cell.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

That's my point though. With all the goodwill and momentum that Microsoft managed to build up with Xbox 360, if the Xbox One was the more powerful system this gen and had the lead console spot for multiplats and sports titles, and they didn't totally squander their opportunity, then EU would have been a bloodbath with both consoles fighting neck and neck instead of the cakewalk that it is now.

You see that is your problem MS did not really build up any good will in EU .
PS3 came out 18 month later in EU and more expensive and still kick there ass other than UK .
It was a given if Sony came out the same time as MS in EU they would win EU easy ,
Since most people going to buy PS4 and they friends will follow .

People expected an Xbox 720 and if Ms had done that they very likely would have won.

Won USA\UK sure ( and price would be a major factor in those countries ) , ROTW was never going to happen .


I mean seriously this is a company that destroy everyone 2 gens in a row and there worst selling consoles still do well .
Did people really think Sony was going to be late to the party again and over price there console .

 

[Warablo]

Yeah I have seen no proof that Sony was planning anything like Microsoft's DRM scheme.

Originally, I thought Microsoft had to know that Sony was doing it also. I didn't think they were that stupid. It seems they were.

I am sure though the PS4 was gonna bundle the camera and launch at $500, but saw the Xbox Conference beforehand, and dropped the camera and price.

 

[kyser73]

That's probably why it didn't sell that much at launch.

But it DID sell at launch, just not in the U.S..

How is it this narrative still persists? PS3 outsold the 360 globally almost every month from launch - IIRC the Kinect launch spike to 360 sales was the only time it outsold the PS3 globally.

The PS3 LTD is on a par with the 360 and it launched a year later.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

That's my point though. With all the goodwill and momentum that Microsoft managed to build up with Xbox 360, if the Xbox One was the more powerful system this gen and had the lead console spot for multiplats and sports titles, and they didn't totally squander their opportunity, then EU would have been a bloodbath with both consoles fighting neck and neck instead of the cakewalk that it is now.

Highly doubtful. Xbox 360 had those things and still got trounced in Europe.

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Yup. A lot of bias was exposed during that time.

I still dont think it was bias short of some known shills.

Last generation did a number on alot of folks who really didn't have a dog in that race but saw that generational transistion result as "abnormal" to what was drilled into them by their environment.

 

[GameAddict411]

Holy smokes. almost everyone predicted PS4 to be last place! Neogaf was seriously out of touch in 2012.lol

"NeoGaf" assumed the logical thing which is releasing a proper next gen Xbox console. Microsoft worked REALLY hard to destroy everything they gained last gen. It's fucking unbelievable how many stupid decisions MS made a couple of years ago. It seems that MS managed to salvage their current console a little bit, but it's far too late now.

 

[AmFreak]

Highly doubtful. Xbox 360 had those things and still got trounced in Europe.

The 360 had a bunch of disadvantages in comparison to the ps3 the 720 never would have had against the ps4.
- the ps3 was (seen as) the more powerful console
- expectations for games were higher cause it came after ps2, which had endless exclusives, everything is multi these days
- free online

They also don't need to win Europe, to win ww.
If last gen happened with the japanese market as it is today Ms would have already won last gen.
So i don't see why the ps4 would have won against a more powerful 720 for the same price.

 

[The Artisan]

holy fucking fuck.

 

[Schrade]

Gone as in....

Spoiler

the big sleep

?

Gone as in he sadly died

 

[RexNovis]

Unfortunately we still have Kuchera and Gies

Unfortunately indeed. I get the impression Polygon is crumpling fast under the weight of its own ego though. They have a third of the staff and 80% of their content is just covers of articles from competitors. Stunts like buying out gaming Internet domains prior to the games announcement certainly hasn't helped matters either.

Agreed. It's kinda funny, that all the effort some of the media put into damage control had ultimately no effect whatsoever. Other than putting their impartiality and integrity into question.

All the "damage control" paled in comparison to the insanity surrounding Titanfall. Never in my life have I seen so much hyperbolic hype about a game. It was seriously something to behold and then the game released...

 

[Schrade]

All the "damage control" paled in comparison to the insanity surrounding Titanfall. Never in my life have I seen so much hyperbolic hype about a game. It was seriously something to behold and then the game released...

There was as much hype for Titanfall as there was anti-hype for The Order. (From gaming "journalists")

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

Congrats Sony, insane performance and well deserved.

To Microsoft, I like all the apps and movies on the X1 but next time just focus some real coin behind the hardware for gaming specifically. Considering it's a 5+ year platform it would be nice to go back to the days of loss leading hardware to get the best performance going.

 

[slade]

That prediction thread makes it so clear how much people believed the concept that the USA=the world. Media sites (Largely US based) were just as guilty with all of them assuming this generation was Microsoft's to take, when in reality it was anyone's to take.

Yeah, this was a big factor. People couldn't look past their own noses. There's a reason that the PS3 launched at 600 dollars and went on to arguably take second place. Prior to the PS3, that type of price was the death knell for any console. But all anybody could see was that the PS3 was not as big a success as the PS2.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

The 360 had a bunch of disadvantages in comparison to the ps3 the 720 never would have had against the ps4.
- the ps3 was (seen as) the more powerful console
- expectations for games were higher cause it came after ps2, which had endless exclusives, everything is multi these days
- free online

They also don't need to win Europe, to win ww.
If last gen happened with the japanese market as it is today Ms would have already won last gen.
So i don't see why the ps4 would have won against a more powerful 720 for the same price.

What the hell are you saying? Microsoft doesn't need Europe (only the United States) in order to sell more than a Sony console, which would undoubtedly have the United States and the rest of the world?

What?

 

[AmFreak]

What the hell are you saying? Microsoft doesn't need Europe (only the United States) in order to sell more than a Sony console, which would undoubtedly have the United States and the rest of the world?

What?

I'm saying they don't need to win in Europe to win worldwide.
Don't really get what's hard to understand?

 

[TheOfficeMut]

I'm saying they don't need to win in Europe to win worldwide.
Don't really get what's hard to understand?

It's hard to understand that because as of right now they only have the US now and they aren't winning shit. Whereas the console that does have Europe is obliterating it.

 

[Fdkn]

People expected an Xbox 720 and if Ms had done that they very likely would have won.

that wouldn't make sense because 360 never won over ps3 worldwide.

 

[BeforeU]

that wouldn't make sense because 360 never won over ps3 worldwide.

People keep saying this over and over. Looking at pure hardware number, then sure ya it did not. But 360 was a juggernaut with the software sale. those software sales and subscription made shit load of revenue for MS than PS3 did for Sony.

So at the end you also have to look that at what cost Sony sold PS3 to match and exceed 360 numbers.

1). Loss on every console (not a small loss either)
2). Free PSN
3). Shit ton of amazing games in second half (this cost a lot of money, really respect Sony for investing in such a great games) made people more comfortable buying PS4.

So ya, to sum up. Even though PS3 sold more than 360, it was a colossal failure from financial point of view. But great console nonetheless.

Sony deserves all the success from PS4. Not only they made a great hardware but also stood by the fans.

 

[TheOfficeMut]

People keep saying this over and over. Looking at pure hardware number, then sure ya it did not. But 360 was a juggernaut with the software sale. those software sales and subscription made shit load of revenue for MS than PS3 did for Sony.

So at the end you also have to look that at what cost Sony sold PS3 to match and exceed 360 numbers.

1). Loss on every console (not a small loss either)
2). Free PSN
3). Shit ton of amazing games in second half (this cost a lot of money, really respect Sony for investing in such a great games) made people more comfortable buying PS4.

So ya, to sum up. Even though PS3 sold more than 360, it was a colossal failure from financial point of view. But great console nonetheless.

Sony deserves all the success from PS4. Not only they made a great hardware but also stood by the fans.

...didn't Microsoft sustain losses on Xbox 360 for a long time?

 

[AmFreak]

It's hard to understand that because as of right now they only have the US now and they aren't winning shit. Whereas the console that does have Europe is obliterating it.

Maybe read my post and the one before that?
I was talking about a hypothetical Xbox 720 and was just saying that it's not necessary to win in europe to win world wide.

that wouldn't make sense because 360 never won over ps3 worldwide.

My other post:

If last gen happened with the japanese market as it is today Ms would have already won last gen.

Also what kind of argument is this?
360 never won so a successor never could win?!?!?

 

[Fdkn]

So at the end you also have to look that at what cost Sony sold PS3 to match and exceed 360 numbers.

1). Loss on every console (not a small loss either)
2). Free PSN
3). Shit ton of amazing games in second half (this cost a lot of money, really respect Sony for investing in such a great games) made people more comfortable buying PS4.

.

But that's exactly why it doesn't make sense to expect XB1 to outsell PS4 worldwide, even in 2012, because we all knew that:

1) PS4 wouldn't cost $600 while losing $200 per sale
2) That's irrelevant when X360 proved that people are willing to pay, in fact PS+ made it easier to swallow and live ended up copying it.
3) The shit ton of amazing games were going to come equally, because all those studios keep doing their stuff.

Expecting PS4 to fail and Xbox to take the world was just a myopic prediction from US and maybe some UK guys. The world is huge. Really

 

[Boke1879]

People keep saying this over and over. Looking at pure hardware number, then sure ya it did not. But 360 was a juggernaut with the software sale. those software sales and subscription made shit load of revenue for MS than PS3 did for Sony.

So at the end you also have to look that at what cost Sony sold PS3 to match and exceed 360 numbers.

1). Loss on every console (not a small loss either)
2). Free PSN
3). Shit ton of amazing games in second half (this cost a lot of money, really respect Sony for investing in such a great games) made people more comfortable buying PS4.

So ya, to sum up. Even though PS3 sold more than 360, it was a colossal failure from financial point of view. But great console nonetheless.

Sony deserves all the success from PS4. Not only they made a great hardware but also stood by the fans.

I don't think MS has been profitable at all in the Xbox division. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[BeforeU]

...didn't Microsoft sustain losses on Xbox 360 for a long time?

They did, also took a billion dollar write off on RROD. But Sony spent over a billion just on cell processing. Thats fucking nuts. Forget about the other loss they took on console. 360 wasnt profitable for a long time because of original Xbox (creating brand itself cost them couple of billions) + a billion of those RROD.

 

[The Artisan]

I don't think MS has been profitable at all in the Xbox division. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

i mean i'm sure they were profitable to an extent, but the rrod probably came off as a costly issue for them.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Also what kind of argument is this?
360 never won so a successor never could win?!?!?

The 360 had the 2 biggest advantages you can ask for price and launch date .
They were never going to get that this gen .

 

[Unknown One]

huh? How was NeoGAF out of teach?. Based on how 360 and PS3 were doing in 2012, everyone predicted Microsoft will again nail it in next gen given the money and how Sony as a company itself was struggling in every division.

No one saw it coming how Microsoft manage to fuck up. It was next level disaster. Bigger than RROD tbh. This is what I love about this industry. Anything can happen. I very much looking forward to next cycle. Whenever it happens.

They are out of touch if they couldn't see PS4 beating the next Xbox. PS3 despite launching a year later and at a higher price, sold more consoles per year than the 360. That's because of EU. Everybody should have known that PS4 would easily beat the next Xbox because of that.

 

[Silent Chief]

This makes me even more excited for PSVR.

GAF predicts failure, so instant success?

 

[Endo Punk]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=489769&highlight=next+gen+predictions

Always provides a fun read.

haha I really thought Sony would be rock bottom this gen.

 

[Unknown One]

GAF predicts failure, so instant success?

By that logic, GAF is Michael Pachter.

 

[ZeroMaverick]

One of my favorite posts from that thread. Simply for how you can pack in so much thoughtful conjecture, into such an absolutely wrong prediction. They made this shit sound very believable though, I'll give 'em that.

To be fair, Nintendo did look really good for a while before the Wii U actually came out. They were saying all the right things: "We are here for the hardcore." "We hear you." "More powerful than ps360." "Look at all these third parties."

I would have predicted the same, to be honest. They looked like they were actually starting to "get" it. Shame what really happened though.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

To be fair, Nintendo did look really good for a while before the Wii U actually came out. They were saying all the right things: "We are here for the hardcore." "We hear you." "More powerful than ps360." "Look at all these third parties."

I would have predicted the same, to be honest. They looked like they were actually starting to "get" it. Shame what really happened though.

I remember the two gaf threads that killed the Wii U.

1.Darksiders 2 director said Wii U version is same as PS3/360
2.Three hundred and forty nine US DOLLARS.