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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
whyamihere said:
Assuming we hold NV:

Hassan + Bayh + Feingold + Duckworth + (Kaine) = The Senate
Click to expand...
If we don't, add McGinty to that.

If we do, add McGinty and subtract Kaine.

Like really the path to 50/51 is pretty much laid out, but then we also have a very realistic shot in like five other states. Like I don't think Strickland or Murphy are nearly as bad as some of you make them out to be - I don't think they're particularly good but Generic D in a swing state in what's shaping up to be a Dem wave isn't a bad place to be. Even where they have small leads, Blunt, Burr, McCain, Portman and even Grassley are posting some weak ass shit numbers very reminiscent of Pryor and Landrieu last election. (Rubio's doing a bit better but right now I'd chalk that up to having like 100% name recognition from his presidential run, I think Murphy is gonna take him down).

Also Patty Judge will win Iowa believe. 57 seats.
 
R

royalan

Member
Kristoffer said:
Does it just collapse from here, GAF? Trump's numbers will plummet so far that Republicans just don't show up to the polls?
Click to expand...

Not quite yet, I don't think.

But it does feel like we're reaching a point of no return with his negative perception though. Coverage of him just feels different lately.

Trump sure picked a doozy of time to double down on his primaries strategy
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
royalan said:
Not quite yet, I don't think.

But it does feel like we're reaching a point of no return with his negative perception though. Coverage of him just feels different lately.

Trump sure picked a doozy of time to double down on his primaries strategy
Click to expand...

I fear that if the polls get too far apart, democrats will feel like they don't need to go out and vote--similar to what happened in '04 when media started reporting after lunch that Kerry was leading big in exit polls.
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
I can't wait for this election cycle to end and Trump to get his ass handed to him. Trump surrogates on the news are the most annoying spin artists I've ever seen.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
I fear that if the polls get too far apart, democrats will feel like they don't need to go out and vote--similar to what happened in '04 when media started reporting after lunch that Kerry was leading big in exit polls.
Click to expand...

I think this is more likely to happen with Republicans if leading up to the election, Trump is considered DOA.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
If we don't, add McGinty to that.

If we do, add McGinty and subtract Kaine.

Like really the path to 50/51 is pretty much laid out, but then we also have a very realistic shot in like five other states. Like I don't think Strickland or Murphy are nearly as bad as some of you make them out to be - I don't think they're particularly good but Generic D in a swing state in what's shaping up to be a Dem wave isn't a bad place to be. Even where they have small leads, Blunt, Burr, McCain, Portman and even Grassley are posting some weak ass shit numbers very reminiscent of Pryor and Landrieu last election. (Rubio's doing a bit better but right now I'd chalk that up to having like 100% name recognition from his presidential run, I think Murphy is gonna take him down).

Also Patty Judge will win Iowa believe. 57 seats.
Click to expand...

I'ma hate on Strickland again. He is NOT generic D, unfortunately. SIttenfeld would have been Generic D, I think. (And probably had a better chance tbh. At least I voted for him in the primary).

Portman has done a brilliant job of coopting Trump's talking points without tying himself to Trump, specifically on trade. Strickland has made some unforced errors, and is not running a semi-competent campaign. Portman is too good with raising funds and staying on message. Strickland is not going to get the blue collar turnout he needs, I don't think. Brown's apparatus will be helpful, but there's only so much we can do.

Add todays stupid comments about Scalia to the mix.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
Plinko said:
I fear that if the polls get too far apart, democrats will feel like they don't need to go out and vote--similar to what happened in '04 when media started reporting after lunch that Kerry was leading big in exit polls.
Click to expand...

Is there any reason to suspect that voter complacency on the Dem side wouldn't be matched by apathy on the Rep side?
 
A

atr0cious

Member
CNN Trump supporter looks like this right now:
ji6Dz6P.jpg
Click to expand...

It didn't happen...

Yeah, but imagine if it did!
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
So... when is Trump (and the GOP, or, hell, even their SuperPACs) going to start spending any money? It's important to keep some advertising out at all time, regardless, even if it's just a tiny but, but it's been a month+ of all-out Clinton stuff with absolute zero rebuttal. Not to say that's the reason Trump has collapsed, but it sure doesn't help when new ads can continue to hammer home new stupid crap he does.

Since the campaign actually has some money now, why are they sitting on all of it? Is the campaign going through an internal struggle of Trump trying to find a way to pay himself back for the ~$50M of his own cash he claimed to have put up, maybe? Is it actually being spent behind the scenes on stuff like staff and GOTV efforts? Because I don't think we've seen any evidence of that, either.
 
R

Retro

Member
Kristoffer said:
Does it just collapse from here, GAF? Trump's numbers will plummet so far that Republicans just don't show up to the polls?
Click to expand...

We should be so lucky; History is already going to look back at this as an insane election, and the GOP completely blowing it would serve as a warning to all who would follow. "This is what happens when you build your house on the quagmire of white nationalism. Bitches."
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Kristoffer said:
Does it just collapse from here, GAF? Trump's numbers will plummet so far that Republicans just don't show up to the polls?
Click to expand...

It could, it really could.

The RNC finds itself in an impossible situation. A huge amount of their resources are dedicated to the presidential election because Trump's organization is a dumpster fire, but they need to defend down ticket republicans as well. If they pull support from Trump, turnout could plummet. Low turnout could ruin the down ticket races as well.

It's almost like this Trump thing was a bad idea...
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Kristoffer said:
Does it just collapse from here, GAF? Trump's numbers will plummet so far that Republicans just don't show up to the polls?
Click to expand...

With any other candidate, I'd say no. They would right the ship, get party support and it least make it competitive. But with Trump anything is possible. If he's down eight with a month to go Trump could get even crazier or even attack the GOP for not supporting him more.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Sibylus said:
I was a straight girl in 2008. Eight years of radicalization under Obama has turned me into a rabid lesbian brazenly fornicating with a vile temptress in the sight of Almighty God Jesus wept where has America gone.
Click to expand...

Said radicalization also gave us Fun Home the Musical, so I am all good.

EDIT: Ohio Christian University ad again!
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Trump doubling down on saying the Secret Service didn't speak with him.

Brah? Pro tip...

When you have to tell people the Secret Service isn't investigating me for trying to encourage my supporters to assassinate my opponent...YOU'RE LOSING THE MESSAGING BATTLE.
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
America can't stand a third and fourth term of Obamamama. What will rabid lesbians like me do without the conversion therapy we need? Our catbabies will never have the chance of a normal, wholesome home environment to grow up in. How will they explain to the vet that their parents are two women living in sin?
 
G

gcubed

Member
He's dead in PA because the burbs of Philly are mostly surrounded by educated well of people. You can't win PA getting crushed in Philly and the burbs. He's as likely to win it as he is NY or NJ

And can we stop with the fake Nevada worry.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Fun hypothetical: PPPs TX poll comes out this weekend and shows the race in a dead heat. Hilldawg's internals agree. It becomes a battleground and in the miracle to end all miracles, Clinton wins it in November. What happens in the next election? Will the work done this season help keep it competitive or will it go back to being safe R with a better candidate?
 
N

nature boy

Member
Retro said:
"In Ohio we're doing well, in Florida we're doing well but we haven't really started yet."

Um... you, uh... might want to get started on that?
Click to expand...

Campaign starts in September, didn't you get the memo with the secret states strategy?

Gonna win bigly and easily, believe me!
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Bowdz said:
Fun hypothetical: PPPs TX poll comes out this weekend and shows the race in a dead heat. Hilldawg's internals agree. It becomes a battleground and in the miracle to end all miracles, Clinton wins it in November. What happens in the next election? Will the work done this season help keep it competitive or will it go back to being safe R with a better candidate?
Click to expand...

It will go back, at least for a while. If HRC wins, it will be narrowly and with a decent amount of Johnson defectors. And presumably the state party is way too powerful relative to the Dems.
 
R

Retro

Member
Bowdz said:
Fun hypothetical: PPPs TX poll comes out this weekend and shows the race in a dead heat. Hilldawg's internals agree. It becomes a battleground and in the miracle to end all miracles, Clinton wins it in November. What happens in the next election? Will the work done this season help keep it competitive or will it go back to being safe R with a better candidate?
Click to expand...

Back to safe R. Every time I see Blue Texas come up for discussion it's always a 2-3 elections out at least. If it flipped for Hillary this year, it's only going to be because of how awful Trump is. Whoever steps up to the plate in 2020, assuming they're not a Trumpian disaster, will win it handily.
 
B

bigwinnerx

Member
How many either existing or recently laid off/bitter steel and mine workers does he think are still in PA and holding this big of a grudge? There are like 80k total coal miners in the entire country. How are they going to flip the state?
 
E

Effect

Member
Kristoffer said:
All the hillary ads I've ever seen have been just clips of trump
Click to expand...

I wish that would stop or at least make it even. These attack ads on Trump is keeping him in the spotlight. So in some ways he doesn't have to run ads for himself. There needs to be a balance of what she's for and will do and against him. I don't think she should wait until later to do that.
 
F

Felix Lighter

Member
Based on Polls Trump only has the north west and central part of PA, he doesn't even carry the conservative T. The Northeast (Scranton, Wilkes Barre, Williamsport) is leaning Clinton in the polls. That was old coal country but I don't know how much coal mining is done there now. I think most is done in the Southwest now.
 
B

brianmcdoogle

Member
via 538:

One poll made a pretty big difference in our forecast today -- so what's the deal?

http://53eig.ht/2b5ezx2 http://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/763528303047282688/photo/1

The deal is your model sucks, Nate.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Retro said:
Back to safe R. Every time I see Blue Texas come up for discussion it's always a 2-3 elections out at least. If it flipped for Hillary this year, it's only going to be because of how awful Trump is. Whoever steps up to the plate in 2020, assuming they're not a Trumpian disaster, will win it handily.
Click to expand...

Why would we assume that?
 
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