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[Greigor The Fellhand]

It's the BRCA.

I'm not being a stickler, but want to make sure you aren't saying the wrong descriptor into the phone.

I think his offices should be smart enough to know though.

ahh thanks, I keep getting the damned thing confused -.-

 

[numble]

If this bill fails, it won't be because of one vote. Once it looks like it's sure to fail, more and more people will jump in the nos.

I think we're almost at that point. The momentum since yesterday has been towards the nos. As it stands, at the minimum, it doesn't look like a vote this week is happening (Collins + Heller + Johnson kills the bill). They get Johnson back just by waiting, but who else would they loose after a week long recess? Who knows at this point.

Of course, some kind of grand bargain could be found where medicaid gets 13 dollars in spare change added to it and everyone flocks to the bill, but it won't work like the house did, because rapid development of this bill isn't really possible with CBO estimates being needed at every step. So it might not be that easy, especially since every change just brings new numbers from the CBO into the spotlight.

The CBO can move very quickly if they are notified or if they have already considered alternative text before it was public. Look what happened in March, it took them 1 day to re-score with amendments introduced:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52516

Amendments introduced on March 22, CBO finished re-scoring on March 23.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The CBO can move very quickly if they are notified or if they have already considered alternative text before it was public. Look what happened in March, it took them 1 day to re-score with amendments introduced:
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52516

Amendments introduced on March 22, CBO finished re-scoring on March 23.

1 day is what I meant. That's time they don't have. 1 day here, 1 day there, and before they know it this thing isn't being voted on until mid July. The house could add stuff the morning of the vote because they didn't have to worry about another office writing up paperwork which could take a day or so. The senate doesn't have that luxury.

 

[Kevinroc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsaVDvrD9wc

Seth Meyer's Closer Look on the CBO score of the BRCA.

 

[Plinko]

Honestly tho employers can then stop paying for health insurance and that in and of itself SHOULD lead to a considerable to significant boost in take home pay... gotta sell it right which Dems never do

And this is why I think it won't work. I don't trust employers to pass that on to the employee.

 

[Teggy]

The president of our country called every mainstream press outlet besides fox fake news. This is insane.

And as was pointed out, a bad story on CNN resulted in an apology and 3 people losing their jobs. Lying from the WH results in...more lying.

 

[Gruco]

Dems need to think big and bold. Also that study isn't gospel, there are countervailing studies.

That's way too dismissive of a work that is as credible and important as this one.

The Seattle paper is completely consistent with Card and Krueger, etc., and is able to replicate their results using their methodologies. What makes this important is that it uses much higher quality data than the literature has to date. In fact, structural simulations have already shown that this data relationship exactly what we should have expected!

This is on top of the simple fact that people have been aggressively and irresponsibly abusing the minimum wage literature for years. The literature has consistently found small effects because increases have typically been relatively small and because they've been quickly eaten away by inflation. There has never been a study that has shown that a more than doubling of the minimum wage produces no effect because there isn't a proper setting to study a change of that magnitude.

 

[Diablos]

And this is why I think it won't work. I don't trust employers to pass that on to the employee.

It would have to be mandated. Which would no doubt go to the SCOTUS...

I still think pumping a fuckton of tax money into Medicaid and letting everyone buy in is the best solution today

 

[Barzul]

Your feel good story of the day. Trump supporter won't be able to afford insurance if the AHCA is passed:



http://www.rawstory.com/2017/06/wat...amily-wont-be-insured-if-obamacare-goes-away/

He'll probably still be alive, but seems like he'll be crippled with medical bills, so it's not a total loss.

This is what I mean by Fox News isn't all powerful. It's very hard to take something away from people and still expect them to play ball.

 

[Plinko]

Speaking of Fox News, Newt Gingrich was on today and apparently said under the BRCA, Medicaid spending increased 20%. Straight up lying to their constituents. Disgusting.

 

[skullmuffins]

And this is why I think it won't work. I don't trust employers to pass that on to the employee.

Maybe we should start with requiring employer share of benefits to be listed on pay stubs. It'll be harder for them to get away with pocketing the difference if it's very clear how much that is.

 

[Plinko]

Maybe we should start with requiring employer share of benefits to be listed on pay stubs. It'll be harder for them to get away with pocketing the difference if it's very clear how much that is.

As Diablos said, it would have to be mandated. Companies would just pocket the money otherwise.

 

[Wilsongt]

The president of our country called every mainstream press outlet besides fox fake news. This is insane.

And as was pointed out, a bad story on CNN resulted in an apology and 3 people losing their jobs. Lying from the WH results in...more lying.

Becauase Fox is the only one washing his balls.

And with CNN retracting a story and getting rid of 3 people, it does nothing but embolden him.


From Faux News itself:

North Korea’s state media on Tuesday published a report describing President Trump’s “America First” policy akin to “Nazism in the 21st century.”

Broken clock and all that.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Ultra conservative groups don't like the bill for being Obamacare-lite

This is literally following the same exact time line of how the first bill died in the house.

McConnell needs to think of something quick if he wants this, he's letting this slip away.

 

[JWiLL]

we were until JWiLL set us straight

Leave me out of this. I understand now that I must agree with everyone in this thread on all things or be called "alt right".

I've been set straight myself, don't worry.

 

[teiresias]

And this is why I think it won't work. I don't trust employers to pass that on to the employee.

Immediately, probably not. But such a system essentially frees people from employer-based insurance, which means employers are then competing with each other on ACTUAL salary levels and other perks. At that point it's up to the American employees to get their head in the game and start accepting jobs with proper wage levels appropriately. Of course, the problem is that many employees don't take their health insurance costs into account as part of their compensation, and getting them to translate that into what they should expect as a rise in salary is an education problem, but not really one the government can solve or mandate directly. Of course, if Unions were still a thing they could be educating their workforce on those issues if it came to that.

 

[nature boy]

So what's up with Capito and Flake?

Haven't heard what their position is.

 

[Greigor The Fellhand]

those of you who live in Ohio, Senator Rob Portmans D.C. phone line is no longer full.

Please call his D.C. Phone and leave your name and request he vote NO on the BRCA. If you are against it.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So what's up with Capito and Flake?

Haven't heard what their position is.

Flake's father died...so he has more important things to attend to.

 

[Teggy]

He just makes up easily disproven things. I don't know why anyone should believe a word that comes out of his mouth.

 

[BoogieWoogie]

God damn it, this MUST fail:

McConnell warns Trump that if vote fails, they'll have to work with the Democrats

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

 

[Pyrokai]

those of you who live in Ohio, Senator Rob Portmans D.C. phone line is no longer full.

Please call his D.C. Phone and leave your name and request he vote NO on the BRCA. If you are against it.

Thank you. I'm calling now.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

If you're trying to appeal to senators who know they will lose their jobs if they vote for this, what the heck does "but Chuck Schumer!!!" matter?

Way to undercut the current message that "Democrats just won't even work with us!"

There's been no consistent messaging at all between the White House and the Senate

Even the Senate can't quite figure out how to message this. Attack the CBO? Praise the CBO for finding extra money? They can't make up their minds.

 

[Tamanon]

God damn it, this MUST fail:



http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

Way to undercut the current message that "Democrats just won't even work with us!"

 

[KirbYuuYuu]

God damn it, this MUST fail:



http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

"Good thing I never said we'll work with them!" *ignores recent tweets*

 

[Maxim726X]

As Diablos said, it would have to be mandated. Companies would just pocket the money otherwise.

This has always been my concern.

There's no way they're going to pass the savings to their employees unless they're forced to.

 

[Lucky Forward]

The president of our country called every mainstream press outlet besides fox fake news. This is insane.

He did that once before back in February:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/...ws-media-the-enemy-of-the-people.html?mcubz=0

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

The FAKE NEWS media (failing @nytimes, @NBCNews, @ABC, @CBS, @CNN) is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People!

1:48 PM - 17 Feb 2017

 

[Daria]

He did that once before back in February:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/...ws-media-the-enemy-of-the-people.html?mcubz=0

is this the tweet he did two of because he forgot to add ABC the first time?

 

[Lucky Forward]

is this the tweet he did two of because he forgot to add ABC the first time?

Yes, it's in the linked NYT article.

 

[Pyrokai]

What's the best summary/write up article about what this monstrous bill does that I can send to my mom to convince her to call our Senator?

 

[Plinko]

God damn it, this MUST fail:



http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/27/republican-health-care-bill-mitch-mcconnell-trump-239998

I absolutely despise the fact that this is the point we are at in our country.

 

[Kai Dracon]

He just makes up easily disproven things. I don't know why anyone should believe a word that comes out of his mouth.

He's physically incapable of not performing for his perceived audience.

If he thought standing in a field at noon and saying "the sun is down, the moon is up" would make him look good to his marks, he would do so.

Worse, a lot of his marks would nod eagerly and say that the sun is a liberal lie.

 

[Daria]

holy-- i missed this gem from March. Michigan working class is getting rammed. http://www.mlive.com/auto/index.ssf/2017/03/gm_cuts_1100_jobs_in_michigan.html

General Motors will cut its third shift at a Lansing, Michigan-area assembly plant in May after a product line moved out of state.

Employees at the Delta Township stamping plant were told on Monday, March 6, that the plant will go down to two shifts.

The move affects 1,100 positions. Most are hourly workers, with about 14 salaried.

Here's is where the jobs went: GM announced in 2016 that it chose its plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee, to build the new GMC Acadia.

About 800 new jobs were created in that state as a result - and GM announced in January that it was adding a third shift in Spring Hill.
[...]
The shift cut is the second for GM in Michigan this year. The automaker announced in late 2016 that it would cut the second shift at the Hamtramck Assembly plant in Detroit.

It also cut 839 jobs at its Grand River Assembly plant, also near Lansing, in 2016.

 

[Crocodile]

those of you who live in Ohio, Senator Rob Portmans D.C. phone line is no longer full.

Please call his D.C. Phone and leave your name and request he vote NO on the BRCA. If you are against it.

Thx for the heads up - gave another call, got through left a message

Hopefully Kasich coming on TV to slam the bill will help light a fire under Portman's ass

 

[Y2Kev]

Rand meeting with trump to flip today

 

[balladofwindfishes]

GOP governors must be fuming at this bill. When Medicaid comes crashing down, they'll be blamed, with no funding or help from Washington to fix it.

I imagine Kasich's call to Portman will matter quite a lot. Hopefully he can pull a Nevada and get Portman to vote no, despite Portman not being up for election for awhile.

Rand meeting with trump to flip today

Paul met with Trump over the weekend as well, couldn't get anything decided.

Trump isn't very good at this.

 

[Diablos]

Rand meeting with trump to flip today

Lol

 

[Thaedolus]

Rand meeting with trump to flip today

It's like poetry...or Groundhog Day...

 

[Maxim726X]

Forgetting the public 'no's right now, there are still many who are refusing to publicly state a position... i.e. 'no'. And as we've all argued for months, if you make drastic changes to the bill you risk losing either the moderates or the hard liners.

This may die on the floor.

 

[Lo-Volt]

Forgetting the public 'no's right now, there are still many who are refusing to publicly state a position... i.e. 'no'. And as we've all argued for months, if you make drastic changes to the bill you risk losing either the moderates or the hard liners.

This may die on the floor.

I think this gives a little credence to the "McConnell would be happy to smother this in an alley and move on" school of thought.

I don't doubt that this bill could beat the odds but the Senate is also different from the House. Party discipline doesn't necessarily work the same way, especially for senators who aren't up for reelection next year or got to their seats on their own (Sen. Murkowski, namely).

And those who are up for reelection and somehow let this Frankenstein's monster of a bill pass with weird amendments might do well to remember what happened to the last guy who wheeled and dealed with healthcare: do Tom MacArthur's New Jersey constituents seem happy with him letting the AHCA through in return for a shitty side deal?

 

[Vestal]

I hate McConnell the person. But I respect the hell out of McConnell the politician. He is arguably the best politician in Washington right now. I just can't see him bringing this bill to the floor if he doesn't have the votes. Politically speaking it would be suicide, and would make the institution of the Senate seem broken as opposed to the house who were able to get the party in line.(I know its not true, but thats the optics of it)

 

[chadskin]

Rand meeting with trump to flip today

Rand will be flipping Trump.

 

[Wilsongt]

Forgetting the public 'no's right now, there are still many who are refusing to publicly state a position... i.e. 'no'. And as we've all argued for months, if you make drastic changes to the bill you risk losing either the moderates or the hard liners.

This may die on the floor.

Silent majority/silent Trump supporters.

They say they are a no, but fall right in line in a heart beat.

It's fucking sad that there aren't more people coming out and telling McConnell to fuck off, and instead we have to expect people like Rand Paul and Ted fucking Cruz to kill this thing.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I hate McConnell the person. But I respect the hell out of McConnell the politician. He is arguably the best politician in Washington right now. I just can't see him bringing this bill to the floor if he doesn't have the votes. Politically speaking it would be suicide, and would make the institution of the Senate seem broken as opposed to the house who were able to get the party in line.(I know its not true, but thats the optics of it)

There were rumors McConnell just wants this entire this over, and a failed vote on the senate floor would end it once and for all.

If he pulls the bill, there's that looming uncertainty that he should be working on it instead of something else, and he doesn't want that. Pass or fail, he wants closure.

 

[smokeymicpot]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Utah Sen. Mike Lee becomes 5th GOP senator to oppose starting health care bill debate in latest blow to party leaders.

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/879720322563538944

 

[Ernest]

God forbid they work on improving the health care plan we already have, instead of wasting time trying to supplant it with an inferior one all in the name of brinkmanship.

 

[Blader]

GOP governors must be fuming at this bill. When Medicaid comes crashing down, they'll be blamed, with no funding or help from Washington to fix it.

I imagine Kasich's call to Portman will matter quite a lot. Hopefully he can pull a Nevada and get Portman to vote no, despite Portman not being up for election for awhile.

You'd think that Portman not being up for re-election for another five years gives him more cover than someone like Heller or Flake, who will have to face voters over this just next year.

I hate McConnell the person. But I respect the hell out of McConnell the politician. He is arguably the best politician in Washington right now. I just can't see him bringing this bill to the floor if he doesn't have the votes. Politically speaking it would be suicide, and would make the institution of the Senate seem broken as opposed to the house who were able to get the party in line.(I know its not true, but thats the optics of it)

McConnell has already broken the Senate. Letting an unpopular bill die on the floor wouldn't inflict any further damage to its credibility, and if anything may actually help bolster it a bit as an institution.

 

[Teggy]

holy-- i missed this gem from March. Michigan working class is getting rammed. http://www.mlive.com/auto/index.ssf/2017/03/gm_cuts_1100_jobs_in_michigan.html

All I see in there is 800 new jobs created. MAGA!

 

[Lo-Volt]

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Utah Sen. Mike Lee becomes 5th GOP senator to oppose starting health care bill debate in latest blow to party leaders.

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/879720322563538944

If this passes, it'll be the Biggest Ugly. So ugly. The Republicans are just agonizing themselves passing this kidney stone of a bill.

I'd tell them to call a doctor, but if they crater the American health care system, well...

 

[Plinko]

holy-- i missed this gem from March. Michigan working class is getting rammed. http://www.mlive.com/auto/index.ssf/2017/03/gm_cuts_1100_jobs_in_michigan.html

Dat GOP control.

God forbid they work on improving the health care plan we already have, instead of wasting time trying to supplant it with an inferior one all in the name of racism.

Fixed.