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[The Last One]

I said "around", and 78 to 80 is basically the same to me. If they can even hit close to 75 by the end of March i'll be blown away by their momentum. I'm expecting them to maybe just hit 70m by the end of March as is.

They only need to ship 7M units till March to hit 70M, which is less than 2.5M per quarter.

Are you serious?

 

[bombshell]

They only need to ship 7M units till March to hit 70M, which is less than 2.5M per quarter.

Are you serious?

I think he has either never heard of the holiday season or never looked at how much PS4 does in that quarter.

 

[originalshez]

Gran Turismo will shift consoles
FIFA advertising deal will shift consoles in EU especially.

I see no reason for Sony to end the current generation for a while yet. I can't see X1X making a big dent in the market, and why rush a new gen when dominating the current one

 

[Inuhanyou]

It's usually wise to be precise in sales threads.

They're up this (calendar) year...

The target is shipments, last year they shipped 9.7 million in the Oct-Dec quarter. The same this year will put them at 73 million, with the remaining 6 months only needing to do 5 million shipped. Why is that impossible?

lol maybe hit 70 million, are you clueless?

I think its more weird that some people point out a single game that will do well in a single territory(GT) and two other games that don't even have launch dates as a reason for Sony to sell 15 million units between now and next March!

Again, every single like minded person i've heard in these sales threads has basically said 2016 was peak year, so how even with that in mind is it possible?

 

[SolidSnakex]

Aside from the games, you can also bank on them having the standard PS4 at $200 for at least some period this holiday. And $200 is one of those key mass market pricepoints. The Pro will also likely drop during that period as well.

 

[Ammogeddon]

Does this include pro sales?

Sure they haven't shifted millions of them yet but it would be interesting to see a breakdown between, OG, slim, and pro.

 

[stryke]

Sony are fools for thinking they can hit 80 million units by early next year

I don't mean to be rude to their bean counters or whoever it is they have analyzing sales, but they have just barely shipped 63 million units as of last month. How much do they really expect to sell for the rest of this year? Even at the absolute optimistic scenario, they are not selling even 10 million between now and next march, even their most profitable holidays in previous years have only given at most around 5 mil

I said "around", and 78 to 80 is basically the same to me. If they can even hit close to 75 by the end of March i'll be blown away by their momentum. I'm expecting them to maybe just hit 70m by the end of March as is.



So your saying they could stuff the channel to make their target? I guess that's plausible, but that's a serious amount of stock left on store shelves. MS tried to the same thing a few years ago IIRC

You act like you follow Sony's numbers closely but you don't have a grasp on their numbers at all.

 

[RayCharlizard]

Does this include pro sales?

Sure they haven't shifted millions of them yet but it would be interesting to see a breakdown between, OG, slim, and pro.

Surely it does. I can't remember where I read it (might have been a previous share holder briefing) but I think it was either 1-in-5 or 1-in-4 PS4s sold right now are Pros.

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Last, but not least, the press release includes the forecast for the current fiscal year – ending on March 31st, 2018 – for Sony Corporation as a whole and split by segment. Notably, Sony Interactive Entertainment predicts to ship 18 million units, which means that the company expects lifetime PS4 shipments to reach 78 million by the end of March.

PS4 peak 2016 basically confirmed.

 

[noobie]

I think its more weird that some people point out a single game that will do well in a single territory(GT) and two other games that don't even have launch dates as a reason for Sony to sell 15 million units between now and next March!

Again, every single like minded person i've heard in these sales threads has basically said 2016 was peak year, so how even with that in mind is it possible?

So from 9.7 million in 2016 Holiday Quarter (3 months) how much of a fall you are expecting? are you saying sales will fall to 3 million this time during Oct-Dec Holiday Quarter?

 

[bombshell]

I think its more weird that some people point out a single game that will do well in a single territory(GT) and two other games that don't even have launch dates as a reason for Sony to sell 15 million units between now and next March!

Again, every single like minded person i've heard in these sales threads has basically said 2016 was peak year, so how even with that in mind is it possible?

You know they have marketing for CoD, Destiny 2 and Battlefront 2, right?

15 million shipped from now and next March is less than they usually do, think about that for a sec... You expect them to "maybe just" hit 70 million shipped by end of March. There's no end to how dumb that expectation is.

 

[Shin]

I think its more weird that some people point out a single game that will do well in a single territory(GT) and two other games that don't even have launch dates as a reason for Sony to sell 15 million units between now and next March!

Again, every single like minded person i've heard in these sales threads has basically said 2016 was peak year, so how even with that in mind is it possible?

For one they lowered their forecast for the year by 2 mill, yes?
There are bigger games of which they pretty much have all the exclusive deals, games that are bound to push units, yes?
Combine everything that's in play, BF2, GTS, Crash (yes Crash), Fifa18, CoD:WW2 and Destiny 2, do you honestly and realistically see them struggling to sell 18M?
Oh and God of War which tends to release in March, I expect that won't change and it will be in time to be counted for their FY18 results along with the units it moves.

 

[wapplew]

I think he has either never heard of the holiday season or never looked at how much PS4 does in that quarter.

Or he lowballing it just to act impress when Sony actually hit it.

 

[Sangetsu-II]

So we have Destiny, CoD, Star Wars and First Party bundles NA and UK + Fifa Bundle and GT: Sport in EU + DQXI bundle and White PS4 in Japan + Holidays + Q1 2018 Sony Games and people still think they can't reach their goal?

 

[Behlel]

For one they lowered their forecast for the year by 2 mill, yes?
There are bigger games of which they pretty much have all the exclusive deals, games that are bound to push units, yes?
Combine everything that's in play, BF2, GTS, Crash (yes Crash), Fifa18, CoD:WW2 and Destiny 2, do you honestly and realistically see them struggling to sell 18M?

They haven't lowered nothing, that was the original projection and they have confirmed the same number even this quarter.

 

[Fdkn]

Or he lowballing it just to act impress when Sony actually hit it.

lol. not him

 

[Shin]

They haven't lowered nothing, that was the original projection and they have confirmed the same number even this quarter.

In comparison to the previous year, it's 2m lower not that they adjusted their forecast this year.

 

[Inuhanyou]

They only need to ship 7M units till March to hit 70M, which is less than 2.5M per quarter.

Are you serious?

That's just my rough estimate. It could be 70 million, could be 72 or a bit more. Again, i'll eat my hat if they can sell 75 million by the end of March. That's basically saying they would sell 12 million units from now to then

You act like you follow Sony's numbers closely but you don't have a grasp on their numbers at all.

I do have a grasp on their numbers. Don't be mad just because i am extremely skeptical of them selling such a crazy amount when for all intents and purposes they should be down from previous years.

And 'well they have this game that doesn't even have a release date to make up the difference' isn't an answer to that

So from 9.7 million in 2016 Holiday Quarter (3 months) how much of a fall you are expecting? are you saying sales will fall to 3 million this time during Oct-Dec Holiday Quarter?

I don't see them doing last year's Holiday numbers period considering that was when the pro sales were likely at their highest to inflate PS4's sales. And they will have Switch and Scorpio to contend with this holiday season as well. I'd personally take off 2 million sales this year.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I think its more weird that some people point out a single game that will do well in a single territory(GT) and two other games that don't even have launch dates as a reason for Sony to sell 15 million units between now and next March!

Again, every single like minded person i've heard in these sales threads has basically said 2016 was peak year, so how even with that in mind is it possible?

You have no idea what you are talking about .
Sony will reach 70 million with just there 3rd quarter even if lower than last year .

I don't see them doing last year's Holiday numbers period considering that was when the pro sales were likely at their highest to inflate PS4's sales. And they will have Switch and Scorpio to contend with this holiday season as well. I'd personally take off 2 million sales this year.

Even if you take 2 million off they will still shipped 7.7 million which already bring them to 70 million .

 

[bombshell]

That's just my rough estimate. It could be 70 million, could be 72 or a bit more. Again, i'll eat my hat if they can sell 75 million by the end of March. That's basically saying they would sell 12 million units from now to then

I don't see them doing last year's Holiday numbers period considering that was when the pro sales were likely at their highest to inflate PS4's sales. And they will have Switch and Scorpio to contend with this holiday season as well. I'd personally take off 2 million sales this year.

Taking 2 million off from 9.7 million, they'll be at 71 million shipped.

That leaves 4 million to do in the remaining 6 months to hit your 75 million max expectation, when the PS4 shipment average monthly shipment for every quarter is 1M+.

Are you starting to see why they'll hit 78 and why your expectations are insanely ignorant?

You'll be eating your hat.

 

[Anarion07]

That's just my rough estimate. It could be 70 million, could be 72 or a bit more. Again, i'll eat my hat if they can sell 75 million by the end of March. That's basically saying they would sell 12 million units from now to then

Quoted for posterity. Does anyone have a remindme bot for GAF?

And 'well they have this game that doesn't even have a release date to make up the difference' isn't an answer to that

You keep ignoring the other plenty of games mentioned that do have a release date, plus the huge amount of marketing deals. Fifa bundles e.g. will sell tons.

 

[wapplew]

Oh yes, hat eating action! This thread need something to spice it up or else it's just Tuesday.

 

[Behlel]

Taking 2 million off from 9.7 million, they'll be at 71 million shipped.

That leaves 4 million to do in the remaining 6 months, when the PS4 shipment average for every quarter is 1M+.

Are you starting to see why they'll hit 78 and why your expectations are insanely ignorant?

Stop feeding the troll, just wait the video of him eating is hat when they announce the 78 million at the end of march.

 

[McMoneyman]

78m expected by next March? Holy shit PS4 you absolute monster.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

I don't see them doing last year's Holiday numbers period considering that was when the pro sales were likely at their highest to inflate PS4's sales. And they will have Switch and Scorpio to contend with this holiday season as well. I'd personally take off 2 million sales this year.

Wanted to focus on this last point, but does anyone actually believe Scorpio has a cat's chance in hell outside of North America and *maybe* some pockets of Europe?

 

[Inuhanyou]

For one they lowered their forecast for the year by 2 mill, yes?
There are bigger games of which they pretty much have all the exclusive deals, games that are bound to push units, yes?
Combine everything that's in play, BF2, GTS, Crash (yes Crash), Fifa18, CoD:WW2 and Destiny 2, do you honestly and realistically see them struggling to sell 18M?
Oh and God of War which tends to release in March, I expect that won't change and it will be in time to be counted for their FY18 results along with the units it moves.

Eh...marketing deals...look i'll be straight with you.

I fully get it okay? Its not like these commercial deals won't have an impact. I am not blind to the fact that some of those big games are tied to Sony's marketing strategy and it will give them some success.

But i just think your vastly overplaying how much commercials will do. It didn't do all that much for MS for the deals they have had this gen. I think it will have some sort of impact for Sony's sales, but its impossible to predict what that is.

Stop feeding the troll, just wait the video of him eating is hat when they announce the 78 million at the end of march.

How can you say i'm a troll? I have no reason to troll Sony threads, i don't have anything in particular against the company. I'm just saying, selling 15 million units from now to March is just over the pail considering this is the 4th year, and for all intents and purposes they WILL be slowing down and the competition is getting more fierce. Even with Sony's own small drop in expectations compared to last year, its still too much.

If they had that they expected 9 to 10 million from now to then, it would be much more plausible i think. That would leave them with 72 to 73 and while still strong would be a realistic prediction.

 

[wapplew]

Wanted to focus on this last point, but does anyone actually believe Scorpio has a cat's chance in hell outside of North America and *maybe* some pockets of Europe?

It will have an impact.
Anything to get money out of gamers pocket have an impact to the market. A Xbox one owner decide to upgrade instead of getting PS4 as second console, a PS4 owner decide to get Switch as second console instead of upgrade to pro.
More competitions in the market the harder Sony get money from our pocket.

 

[Card Boy]

Scorpio

Don't worry i understood that reference.

 

[Anarion07]

Eh...marketing deals...look i'll be straight with you.

I fully get it okay? Its not like these commercial deals won't have an impact. I am not blind to the fact that some of those big games are tied to Sony's marketing strategy and it will give them some success.

But i just think your vastly overplaying how much commercials will do. It didn't do all that much for MS for the deals they have had this gen. I think it will have some sort of impact for Sony's sales, but its impossible to predict what that is.

Yeah you can totally make conclusions about PS4 advertising performance coming from Xbox advertising performance.

Edit: When do they usually announce numbers? On March 31st or sometime later? Gonna set an alarm for hat eating.

 

[kyser73]

Considering everyone and their mother's conventional wisdom has been saying 2016 was Sony's peak year and its downhill from there, your saying they will sell that many units from now until March?



That's just ridiculous and a very unbelievable prospect to me.

Its hard enough to imagine sales like that in march, and yet you cut off 3 months and expect for it to be plausible?

1 or two games will not do anywhere near the business for hardware some people seem to expect, i don't get it.

Don't listen to conventional wisdom as it's usually wrong.

Their target is 18m shipped by EoFY, a drop of 10% on 16/17 and in line with 15/16 targets, so Sony agree with you that peak is passed.

 

[Neith]

Spiderman has a chance to be absolutely huge if the game is good. Like 10m strong huge if everything goes its way.

Bundles will be insane this fall/winter guaranteed if they want 78m.

 

[kikiribu]

It's well deserved.

Where can I buy this.

 

[bombshell]

Yeah you can totally make conclusions about PS4 advertising performance coming from Xbox advertising performance.

Edit: When do they usually announce numbers? On March 31st or sometime later? Gonna set an alarm for hat eating.

About one month later, similar to how this thread is for Apr-Jun quarter.

 

[Fukuzatsu]

It will have an impact.
Anything to get money out of gamers pocket have an impact to the market. A Xbox one owner decide to upgrade instead of getting PS4 as second console, a PS4 owner decide to get Switch as second console instead of upgrade to pro.
More competitions in the market the harder Sony get money from our pocket.

I'm not saying it won't sell at all, because it certainly will. Upgrading XO owners alone will demonstrate that.

I'm saying, among console game players who don't already own an Xbox, this thing is looking to be small beans. PS4 owners thinking about maybe getting an Xbox is a pretty small minority, I feel confident of that, let alone a premium Xbox at $500.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

So what do we think? Will it ultimately surpass the PS2?

No, but it should pass PS3 (easily) and PS1 (harder, but still very doable).

 

[gundamkyoukai]

How can you say i'm a troll? I have no reason to troll Sony threads, i don't have anything in particular against the company. I'm just saying, selling 15 million units from now to March is just over the pail considering this is the 4th year, and for all intents and purposes they WILL be slowing down and the competition is getting more fierce. Even with Sony's own small drop in expectations compared to last year, its still too much.

If they had that they expected 9 to 10 million from now to then, it would be much more plausible i think. That would leave them with 72 to 73 and while still strong would be a realistic prediction.

There is nothing realistic about your prediction if you follow sales .
You are saying Sony will only shipped 10 million consoles in 9 months .
They sell 1 million consoles a month WW and you always have few million going to places around the world .

 

[Anticol]

well shipped. any numbers on sold-through?

Get the xbone number multiply it by 2 and add a couple more millions, in that ballpark.

 

[Inuhanyou]

There is nothing realistic about your prediction if you follow sales .
You are saying Sony will only shipped 10 million consoles in 9 months .
They sell 1 million consoles a month WW and you always have few million going to places around the world .

Don't listen to conventional wisdom as it's usually wrong.

Their target is 18m shipped by EoFY, a drop of 10% on 16/17 and in line with 15/16 targets, so Sony agree with you that peak is passed.

Fair enough....again, they can always stuff the channel to make their targets so its not as if predicting shipped numbers makes much sense for me to attempt regardless..

And its not as if i haven't been wrong about their production capacity in the past of course.

 

[Shin]

Eh...marketing deals...look i'll be straight with you.

I fully get it okay? Its not like these commercial deals won't have an impact. I am not blind to the fact that some of those big games are tied to Sony's marketing strategy and it will give them some success.

But i just think your vastly overplaying how much commercials will do. It didn't do all that much for MS for the deals they have had this gen. I think it will have some sort of impact for Sony's sales, but its impossible to predict what that is.

I'm not overplaying anything, just simply pointing out things that could boost their sales, after all that's the point of deals.
The deals did have an impact for Xbox as well in a positive way just to a lesser extent due to a lot of other factors (install base, lack of first party games).
PlayStation have a stronger brand awareness it's not unthinkable that games (incl. exclusive deals) might sell better on their platform for this generation.

 

[stryke]

Taking 2 million off from 9.7 million, they'll be at 71 million shipped.

That leaves 4 million to do in the remaining 6 months to hit your 75 million max expectation, when the PS4 shipment average monthly shipment for every quarter is 1M+.

Are you starting to see why they'll hit 78 and why your expectations are insanely ignorant?

You'll be eating your hat.

When he said "take off 2 million" I knew it wasn't worth it anymore.

 

[Shin]

60m shipped March 31st, 63.3 shipped June 31st.

 

[eerik9000]

60m shipped around April 28th, 63.3 shipped June 31st.

No. 60m shipped as of March 31st, 63.3 shipped June 30th.

 

[Xando]

60m shipped March 31st, 63.3 shipped June 31st.

Still shipping 1.1m consoles per month is pretty impressive

 

[Shin]

No. 60m shipped as of March 31st.

Yeah, too quick to quote
I re-checked to make sure it made sense, articles went up in April but the result was for their FY17 which ended March 31st.

 

[samar11]

Sony are fools for thinking they can hit 80 million units by early next year

Perhaps you should go tell Sony that so they can re-adjust their numbers, they might even hire you!

 

[Bucket-o-roadkill]

Can see at least one more revision in the PS4's lifetime like a cheaper psOne, that'll shift a few if it's cheap enough. Life in this for a few years.

 

[bombshell]

Fair enough....again, they can always stuff the channel to make their targets so its not as if predicting shipped numbers makes much sense for me to attempt regardless..

And its not as if i haven't been wrong about their production capacity in the past of course.

I see you have your channel stuffing excuses ready to try to back out from eating your hat hehe.

Just remember that you started this thread with saying: "I'm expecting them to maybe just hit 70m by the end of March as is." Channel stuffing 8 million consoles would be unprecedented.

 

[Jarod McChicken]

Another notes about those results :

- Sony Corporation made an operating income of 157,6 billion yen (1,42 billion dollars) during april-june 2017, that's the new record of the company for any Q1.

- Sony Corporation is targeting an operating income of 500 billion yen (4,53 billion dollars) for the fiscal year. If it succeeds, this would be the second biggest operating income of its history since the 520 billion yen (4,71 billion dollars) in 1998, the year of Gran Turismo and Men in Black (the movie).

 

[samar11]

No way but will be Sony's second biggest console almost guaranteed, I bet it will also surpass Wii so all in all it will be the second best selling home console.

BTW we all love to look at selling figures but we sometimes forget what is the most important number for Sony and that is the profit: the PS4 alongside with PSN and all additional incomes is by FAR Sony's most profitable console, they bled a lot of money even during the very successful PS2 gen, not to mention PS3's. Now because they never lost on the hardware and they didn't fuck anything up (YLOD anyone?) and digital is stronger than ever they are making a HUGE amount.

Too bad other divisions in Sony fucks it up but you can't blame gaming on that. The PS4 is the main reason why Sony is in reasonable shape overall as a company.

IF it beats PS1 then it will beat Wii, PS1 sold more then Wii if the wiki numbers are correct.

 

[Shin]

Another notes about those results :

- Sony Corporation made an operating income of 157,6 billion yen (1,42 billion dollars) during april-june 2017, that's the new record of the company for any Q1.

- Sony Corporation is targeting an operating income of 500 billion yen (4,53 billion dollars) for the fiscal year. If it succeeds, this would be the second biggest operating income of its history since the 520 billion yen (4,71 billion dollars) in 1998, the year of Gran Turismo and Men in Black (the movie).

They do have Spider-Man: Homecoming and Baby Driver (not sure if they'll make more than MiB) and Gran Turismo Sport (though GT1 sold 10m+).