I still think that Sony will not offer software BC for PS3 titles, while they will offer it for PSOne titles and maybe PSTwo titles. I think they might offload the cost onto consumers by selling HW BC kits like in some patents they filed for a while ago. If people want it, fine... if the demand is low, fine too. It could be a good solution, although people would bitch about it anyways.
There were many reasons why I speculated Sony would totally redesign the PS3 this refresh, that if not done this refresh imply a roadmap going forward that does not include the PS3 as a separate console.
It all depends on the cost of the PS4, if PS3 BC can be included economically and what it would cost Sony to refresh the PS3 to 22nm at the end of it's life. (22nm refresh would be released late 2014) Given Sony statements that they plan to support the PS3 till 2015, maybe more, a refresh in 2014 doesn't seem likely.
If the target price of the PS4 is close to $299 with a 500 gig hard disk and Sony keeps the PS3 price at $200 because they can't or do not want to spend the money for a complete redesign (that would allow for a cheaper PS3), who would buy a PS3 at $200 when they can get a PS4 at $299?
My mistake, if my speculation is wrong, was in believing that Sony would keep supporting the PS3 as a bottom end lower price game console primarily for the XMB/Browser front end. That they would redesign for a 1 chip SoC they could sell cheaper like Microsoft did with the 360S @ 45nm and is likely going to further reduce the price of the Xbox 360 refresh @ 32nm to be released this year.
Look at the press at the PS3 4K price; everyone is saying Sony is making a big mistake. Will Microsoft make the same mistake or can we expect a cheaper Xbox 360 this holiday season?
We still don't know the power usage of the PS3 4K....that will give us information, a tear-down and picture of the PS3 4K motherboard more information. If it's a one chip 35 watt at the XMB motherboard design (complete redesign using modern hardware or
Coreless (cheaper to manufacture) and more efficient) then it changes the PS3 endgame.
From NathansFortune, a Sony Software Developer's post on BY3D 5/2011
Yes, I've always thought that the 2009 model is what Sony wanted to launch in 2006. There is definitely another slim in the pipeline before PS3 is EOL'd. It will be 32nm Cell, 28nm RSX, 2x 1Gbit XDR chips at 32nm, 2x 1Gbit GDDR3 at 28nm, and 20GB NAND with an empty 2.5" HDD slot for people who want to upgrade. If Sony really want to monetise they could make it 1.8" and team up with Toshiba to sell standard 1.8" drives with PlayStation branding and a tidy markup.
That would be the final stage of PS3 cost-cutting, and it will give Sony access to the $149/129/99 market for times after PS4 launches.
The thrust of the ?speculation? is the same as mine (Cheaper PS3 refresh) but I could find no work by IBM on a 32nm Cell processor just Xbox 360 @ 32nm
International project with no mention of the elements in the CPU just the cache (could have included SPUs). RSX @28nm and Cell @32nm with both coreless might meet the 35 watts at the XMB for 3rd tier EPA Goldstar specs.
But there is a statement that Sony was skipping 32nm for Cell and the IBM Linkedin Employee post with work on Cell at 22nm.