Support NeoGAF

[AwakenedCloud]

you might want to read Satya's email again. They are doubling down on mobile + cloud while removing the word devices from the motto. xbox platform will find it's future there.

I think you misunderstood. The new head of the Xbox division has been pushing the message that the Xbox is a game platform first and foremost. That's why it wasn't much of a surprise when they canned the original programming and focused exclusively on games during E3.

 

[BeforeU]

People are talking about the sales of this particular quarter...

So people are assuming it will keep doing worse and actually twice as worse as it did this quarter despite the big Xbox exclusives coming out this holiday.

It might do 1.5:1 in the US, meanwhile outside the US it will continue to outsell the Xbox One 6:1 or worse.

Yeah this makes sense XO 6:1 outside of EU and NA. But there is no way this is going to be like 6:1 overall worldwide as some people suggesting.

Is Xbone creeping on PS4? June NPD was supposed to be the occasion and yet it was outsold by 70k. Destiny and GTA will basically be marketed as PS4 exclusives.

No, PS4 is still easily outselling in states. And even though Destiny will be marketed towards PS4, I still don't expect the sales to be anywhere near 2:1. Microsoft is doing their best to let people know with all kinds of community gathering and stuff. But at the end, this is just my opinion. And we don't know the specifics of GTA5. Wasn't it marketed towards PS3 last gen. Did it do so much better than 360? I don't know. Truth is, franchises like GTA, Assassins, Battlefield, COD are too big now and lot of people would know by now its not a console exclusive.

I think your overstating the worldwide audience of Xbox, outside the US and UK which may well end up with similar sold numbers at the very best end of the spectrum for MS, the rest of the world has historically favoured Sony consoles which could easily give it a 2:1 ratio or greater.

I am absolutely not objecting the 2:1 ratio. Its clear at this point. I was objecting 6:1 LOL

Your Delusional...

Thanks.

You said it yourself. XB1 is around 5 million and ps4 is around, possibly above 9.1 million. How you can go from acknowledging that to suggesting destiny and gta might do around 1.5:1 is beyond me. For a start, ps4 is around 1.8:1 in sales compared to the Xbox. On top of that, you have the exclusive marketing deal to further sway potential buyers. I could easily see destiny doing 2:1 on that alone.

Also, don't forget that a lot of people are waiting on destiny before purchasing a new system. That should further skew the figures in Sony's favour for the foreseeable future.

Lot of people are also waiting for MCC to get Xbox One. But yes you are right, and again I agree with everything you said, my objection was 6:1 worldwide.

 

[Plinko]

Microsoft brought this on themselves with their pre-launch hubris and complete anti-consumer attitude.

It will go down as one of the most botched launches in history.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

The 2:1 gap with the Bone is going to accelarate these coming months.

I mean its happening right now with TLOU: Remastered boosting PS4 sales while there hasn't been any major release on Xbone for over a month.

 

[Bgamer90]

but this time MS might ended up thrid

Highly doubt it if the Wii U continues on selling less than 100K during many months for NPD.

 

[crinale]

And all this with the console completely bombing in Japan.

Pushing Japan back to 2nd tier countries was a smart move after all. In other words they must have known it's not worth the effort to gain that market. Instead they have concentrated on NA/EU and here's the result.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

So neither console has surpassed even 10 million sold through units but the gen is already over? LOL okay.

The sales battle was over when it became clear Microsoft wouldn't have a head start and Sony was competitive on price.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Highly doubt it if the Wii U continues on selling less than 100K during many months for NPD.

Well there's Mario Kart and... Mario Kart for now. NPD could be outweighed by Europe & Japan's Wii U sales, which you can't say for The One..

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Highly doubt it if the Wii U continues on selling less than 100K during many months for NPD.

XBOne was able to achieve 80% of the Wii U's WW LTD in like 8 months, before Halo and the holiday.

Who ever expected anything else but #2 for MS? Doesn't mean it's doing bad. They'll likely end up #2 or possibly #3 for last generation (Wii3/60) as well.

 

[Brad Grenz]

Highly doubt it if the Wii U continues on selling less than 100K during many months for NPD.

It's a real possibility so long as WiiU continues to outsell Xbox One everywhere else in the world.

 

[Bgamer90]

The 2:1 gap with the Bone is going to accelarate these coming months.

I mean its happening right now with TLOU: Remastered boosting sales while there hasn't been any major release on Xbone for over a month.

Is TLOU: Remastered a post-game launch system seller? I mean, I can definitely see people getting the system for the game but not that many; it seems more like a game that people who already own PS4s would get if they missed out on last year's PS3 version. Guess we will see though. Would be surprised if monthly PS4 sales in July are higher than June even with TLOU.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Well there's Mario Kart and... Mario Kart for now. NPD could be outweighed by Europe & Japan's Wii U sales, which you can't say for The One..

Japan accounts for an extra 40k at most per month.

XB1 vs WiiU in EU is something we don't know. I don;t se why people are thinking WiiU is outselling XB1 in the entirety of EU.

 

[PdotMichael]

It's a real possibility so long as WiiU continues to outsell Xbox One everywhere else in the world.

The WiiU is outselling the Xbox One in Europe?

 

[AyaisMUsikWhore]

No losses aside from the Mobile Division.

Green as a whole.

It's because they made 230 million in profit.

This is good news. I guess them getting rid of the fat is working out for the best. However, I am still have my doubts. Sony has been making a barrage on non-sense that is either way ahead of this time, something no one asked for, and only for enterprise markets.

^ This is the shit I don't like. I wish they would look at the market as is and compete on just that, by innovating on just that. For example, the time they take making this ink book document watchamacallit, they could of used it to make a more competitive more richer smart-watch or something now, that needs to be innovated on. In theory, most of those things do have a following, but at the prices they are selling it for, typically - they are not worth it.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I think you misunderstood. The new head of the Xbox division has been pushing the message that the Xbox is a game platform first and foremost. That's why it wasn't much of a surprise when they canned the original programming and focused exclusively on games during E3.

God you'd hope so, wouldn't you. What was the focus of the Xbox platform before, TV?

We all know they completely ballsed up and I don't actually think much will change from a games perspective now either.

 

[Impeccable]

Is TLOU: Remastered a post-game launch system seller? I mean, I can definitely see people getting the system for the game but not that many; it seems more like a game that people who already own PS4s would get if they missed out on last year's PS3 version. Guess we will see though. Would be surprised if monthly PS4 sales in July are higher than June even with TLOU.

Of course it's a system seller.

 

[Freeman]

So people are assuming it will keep doing worse and actually twice as worse as it did this quarter despite the big Xbox exclusives coming out this holiday.



Yeah this makes sense XO 6:1 outside of EU and NA. But there is no way this is going to be like 6:1 overall worldwide as some people suggesting.



No, PS4 is still easily outselling in states. And even though Destiny will be marketed towards PS4, I still don't expect the sales to be anywhere near 2:1. Microsoft is doing their best to let people know with all kinds of community gathering and stuff. But at the end, this is just my opinion. And we don't know the specifics of GTA5. Wasn't it marketed towards PS3 last gen. Did it do so much better than 360? I don't know. Truth is, franchises like GTA, Assassins, Battlefield, COD are too big now and lot of people would know by now its not a console exclusive.



I am absolutely not objecting the 2:1 ratio. Its clear at this point. I was objecting 6:1 LOL



Thanks.



Lot of people are also waiting for MCC to get Xbox One. But yes you are right, and again I agree with everything you said, my objection was 6:1 worldwide.

Get ready to be disappointed this holiday, no way MCC can move enough consoles to change the current trend.

 

[gamechanger87]

The 2:1 gap with the Bone is going to accelarate these coming months.

I mean its happening right now with TLOU: Remastered boosting PS4 sales while there hasn't been any major release on Xbone for over a month.

That is a joke post right? People are rushing out to buy consoles for a game they could have played last year on the PS3?

It's a nice bonus for people new to the console, but no one is going out to buy one specifically for it.

If anything the gap should close, MS has a strong lineup in the next few months. PS4 has DriveClub.

 

[Kosma]

I looked up the PS3 numbers for Q1 2007, and it seems like it was roughly in the same position as the X1. According to the source, it sold roughly .71 million in that Q1 time frame, and picked up considerably in the following year. I'm not saying that's going to be the case for the X1, but it's way too early to write it off completely.

http://www.play.tm/news/12089/worldwide-ps3-sales-at-448-million/

PS3 didnt even launch until Q2 really in Europe (march 23rd 2007)

What does MS have left to close the gap? Japan?

 

[mejin]

Sony is playing the right cards. Well deserved.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The CEO stated that Xbox isn't going anywhere so I'm sure they are willing. MS is also in a much better position to support the Xbox then Sony is to the PS4. People keep talking about how great these numbers are for Sony but some folks still don't realize that the gaming division pulled in only $41 million, the second worst performing segment.

You have to take into context that the division includes "Networked Services" which has very little revenue and spends a lot of money, it was taken out of "All other" and added into "Game" at the start of this year. Additionally you must also take into context that hardware gross margin is squeezed by the launch of the PS4. If you had told Kaz, Andy and Shu that they would be making an operating profit of $41m 6 months into the launch of the PS4 I think they would have bitten your hand off. As the PS4 ramps up and the cost reductions feed through the hardware gross margin will increase and the operating profit will slowly increase also.

That is the nature of the business model, start up loss for a long term gain. With the PS3 the loss was too great (>$5bn) to overcome, but with the PS4 the have struck the right balance, and given it's popularity they may even have been overly conservative with pricing. The PS2 was a loss leader for about two years, the PS4 has swung into gross hardware profitability already and will continue to increase its margins over the coming year as mentioned in their outlook and increased profit forecast for the division.

The PS4 is a really well designed console, it will benefit from cost reductions faster than the Xbox One, it is cheaper to produce, even without Kinect included and it is more powerful. Cerny = GOAT.

 

[Xis]

PS4 is certainly doing better than the XB1, but I wouldn't read too much into the 3:1 ratio. Microsoft overstocked store shelves last year, and stores are still burning through that initial shipment. Sold-through numbers are closer.

 

[Fdkn]

The WiiU is outselling the Xbox One in Europe?

Nobody knows for sure but I think is possible judging on my experience alone.

 

[ethomaz]

So neither console has surpassed even 10 million sold through units but the gen is already over? LOL okay.

Yeap first place is already defined.

Now we ca look at 2nd place battle... so more interesting... yeap this gen battle is over for Sony.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Japan accounts for an extra 40k at most per month.

Which is greater than the NPD gap in the last 2 months.

 

[ClearData]

I wonder if we will get a sales update for PS4 at Gamescon.

 

[MUnited83]

No, PS4 is still easily outselling in states. And even though Destiny will be marketed towards PS4, I still don't expect the sales to be anywhere near 2:1. Microsoft is doing their best to let people know with all kinds of community gathering and stuff. But at the end, this is just my opinion. And we don't know the specifics of GTA5. Wasn't it marketed towards PS3 last gen. Did it do so much better than 360? I don't know. Truth is, franchises like GTA, Assassins, Battlefield, COD are too big now and lot of people would know by now its not a console exclusive.

.

GTA V PS3 outsold Xbox360 version for quite a bit, and the marketing that made it seem like a PS3 exclusive worked pretty damn well. Same with Watchdogs PS4. And same will happen with GTA V PS4.

 

[Freeman]

So neither console has surpassed even 10 million sold through units but the gen is already over? LOL okay.

MS was the one who stated that the first console to reach 10m sold wins the generation, PS4 will hit that mark any day now.

 

[Melchiah]

If you told me two years ago that both the PS4 and Xbox One would release at pretty much the same time then I pretty much would say a similar ratio for Q1. PlayStation brand has a greater presence worldwide than Xbox.

Yep. It was expected now that they launched simultaneously. Only a major screw up on Sony's part would have turned things around. If Microsoft hadn't tarnished their image, they would have sold more in the US and UK, but still lost in the continental Europe. That's why I think Microsoft will try to launch their next system before Sony.

 

[Pie and Beans]

The WiiU is outselling the Xbox One in Europe?

A strange new narrative thats emerged this past month with no basis in fact. Pay it little heed.

 

[dolemite]

The gaming division is doing phenomenally well. In fact, the biggest danger to the long term
growth is coming form Sony Headquarters: they are particularly brilliant at losing billions over and over and dragging well performing divisions down.

 

[MUnited83]

That is a joke post right? People are rushing out to buy consoles for a game they could have played last year on the PS3?

It's a nice bonus for people new to the console, but no one is going out to buy one specifically for it.

If anything the gap should close, MS has a strong lineup in the next few months. PS4 has DriveClub.

Man, I hope you like the tast of crow.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

The WiiU is outselling the Xbox One in Europe?

Are we doing that "Guy on twitter said Wii U > Xbox One in one store so lets extrapolate that to all of Europe" thing again?

 

[Solaire of Astora]

Lot of people are also waiting for MCC to get Xbox One.

Yeah, but you could say that about any major exclusive for any platform. Take bloodborne, for example.

But yes you are right, and again I agree with everything you said, my objection was 6:1 worldwide.

Yeah, 6:1 is quite a long shot. Sony would have to have a ton of surprises up their sleeves ready to reveal in order to reach that kind of domination. 3:1 ww is probably unlikely, but not completely so.

Is TLOU: Remastered a post-game launch system seller? I mean, I can definitely see people getting the system for the game but not that many; it seems more like a game that people who already own PS4s would get if they missed out on last year's PS3 version. Guess we will see though. Would be surprised if monthly PS4 sales in July are higher than June even with TLOU.

GOTY 2013 and one of the highlights of last gen? It's definitely possible. The recent announcement of 7m sold on ps3 alone shows that this game still has some legs. It wouldn't surprise me if the ps4 version has considerable legs due to those who are switching from xbox, but still waiting to do so.

MS was the one who stated that the first console to reach 10m sold wins the generation, PS4 will hit that mark any day now.

Yeah, but looking at ww ltd for both ps3 and 360, it seems like they were wrong about that.

 

[ethomaz]

BTW this shipments numbers holds PS4 with a good margin in the fastest selling console ever ahead Wii and PS2.

Wii will pass it but I can't see that in 2014 anymore.

 

[BeforeU]

Get ready to be disappointed this holiday, no way MCC can move enough consoles to change the current trend.

It wont, and I am not expecting. Come on guys, thats all you took away from my post. People are suggesting its going to continue doing worse than it is and reach 6:1 ratio and more. I am saying it wont, MCC wont change the trend and nothing will. But it will only get improved from now on. At least thats how I see it.

GTA V PS3 outsold Xbox360 version for quite a bit, and the marketing that made it seem like a PS3 exclusive worked pretty damn well. Same with Watchdogs PS4. And same will happen with GTA V PS4.

Numbers please? I didnt think it makes that much of a difference.

 

[Freeman]

Yeah, but looking at ww ltd for both ps3 and 360, it seems like they were wrong about that.

They were wrong about themselves begin able to win a generation by reaching 10m first, they much have got their data somewhere.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Highly doubt it if the Wii U continues on selling less than 100K during many months for NPD.

I mean if they can maintain the differential in America that the last month saw we could see a rebound of sorts for a few years. I'd still put it's top end marketshare around 17-18 million units units though. That's if this differential is maintained through all months going forward for a couple of years. Which is just amazingly unlikely. We've seen just how low the floor can go with the WiiU. As bad as One's performance was pre Kinect removal it's nowhere near as low. Leading me to believe it's likely a modest bump caused by quality software. And won't lead to any real sustained higher momentum.

Microsoft at their minimum will glean a good 20 million units in America alone. And that's if just about everything continues to go badly for them. One at best I see more as a 30-35 million unit seller in America. And a 20 million unit seller in Europe at best. I don't expect their total marketshare to be over 55 million units worldwide.

I think Sony's minimum in America is at least 30-35 million units. I really think with intelligent price drops throughout the generation culminating in a $99 model in year seven or eight can lead to the console eclipsing both Wii and 360 in total marketshare in the north american market. Along with a good 50 million units in Euroland.

But hell I'm basing this off nonholiday numbers and hope.

 

[Jigolo]

Holy crap I never would've thought 3:1. That's BIG. Not to mention from here on out the sales are going to grow for both platforms but probably PS4 more than Xbone.

August - TLoU boost
September - Destiny spike
October - shit ton of games month which means ton's of systems sold
November - Black Friday month + CoD
December - Christmas


Will PS4 be at 15 million before January? Who knows.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Is TLOU: Remastered a post-game launch system seller? I mean, I can definitely see people getting the system for the game but not that many; it seems more like a game that people who already own PS4s would get if they missed out on last year's PS3 version. Guess we will see though. Would be surprised if monthly PS4 sales in July are higher than June even with TLOU.

It's as much of a system seller as MCC for Xbox One. More so given that MCC comes out just after Destiny which could fill the Halo shaped hole for a lot of people. There is no game like TLOU on PS4 currently and as Sony have said many, many times over half of the current PS4 installed base didn't have a PS3 and TLOU will broaden it's appeal to those people. Destiny will significantly clip the wings of MCC on XB1.

I mean if they can maintain the differential in America that the last month saw we could see a rebound of sorts for a few years. I'd still put it's top end marketshare around 17-18 million units units though. That's if this differential is maintained through all months going forward for a couple of years. Which is just amazingly unlikely. We've seen just how low the floor can go with the WiiU. As bad as One's performance was pre Kinect removal it's nowhere near as low. Leading me to believe it's likely a modest bump caused by quality software. And won't lead to any real sustained higher momentum.

Microsoft at their minimum will glean a good 20 million units in America alone. And that's if just about everything continues to go badly for them. One at best I see more as a 30-35 million unit seller in America. And a 20 million unit seller in Europe at best. I don't expect their total marketshare to be over 55 million units worldwide.

I think Sony's minimum in America is at least 30-35 million units. I really think with intelligent price drops throughout the generation culminating in a $99 model in year seven or eight can lead to the console eclipsing both Wii and 360 in total marketshare in the north american market. Along with a good 50 million units in Euroland.

But hell I'm basing this off nonholiday numbers and hope.

Where are they going to unload all these units? In the UK they sold just under 9m Xbox 360s, they won't get anywhere near that figure this time around. No way do they get anywhere close to 20m in Europe, 12-13m is more like it, maybe even as low as 10m if they can't get a foothold in Germany.

 

[ethomaz]

Numbers please? I didnt think it makes that much of a difference.

I will put that way.

360 had a 32 record in a row being the best selling console in US.

GTAV PS3 made PS3 win the first time after 32 months.

It was pretty big difference.

 

[Canis lupus]

No, PS4 is still easily outselling in states. And even though Destiny will be marketed towards PS4, I still don't expect the sales to be anywhere near 2:1. Microsoft is doing their best to let people know with all kinds of community gathering and stuff. But at the end, this is just my opinion. And we don't know the specifics of GTA5. Wasn't it marketed towards PS3 last gen. Did it do so much better than 360? I don't know. Truth is, franchises like GTA, Assassins, Battlefield, COD are too big now and lot of people would know by now its not a console exclusive.

I do think sales will be ~2:1 in the holiday quarter. PS4 to be around 7M(PS3 did 4.9M in same period), Xbone between 3-4M(360 YTD 1.2M). GTA and Destiny are just another system sellers for PS4, marketing does help, look at 360 CoD deal last gen, look Watch Dog sales breakdown (~2:1 PS4-Xbone), doesn't matter if a lot of people know that it's multiplat, people will get the version that's in the spotlight. Sony's even going as far as letting 360 people converting to PS4 keep their GTA saves.

 

[Bgamer90]

It's a real possibility so long as WiiU continues to outsell Xbox One everywhere else in the world.

Does "Outselling everywhere else in the world" really matter when neither system is really doing that well in many countries outside of the US? The Xbox One in the US though has been easily outselling the Wii U; Wii U has had multiple months under 100K in NPD where as Xbox One only had one -- May; and that was more than likely due to the $400 SKU announcement.

Xbox One NPD sales for November and December should crush the Wii U sales. Honestly don't see how the Wii U could be in second place for the gen. I mean, the XB1 is probably around 1.5 Million less in terms of worldwide sales in comparison to the Wii U but that's with the Wii U being out for twice as long and the system releasing many of its big titles (Mario, and Mario Kart). I just don't see how the system could stay in second place for worldwide sales 3-4 years from now. There will be an even bigger difference in the game libraries & game releases of both consoles by then. Night & day.

 

[sörine]

A strange new narrative thats emerged this past month with no basis in fact. Pay it little heed.

It was confirmed for France at least. But they've always loved Nintendo so not too surprising.

 

[MUnited83]

Numbers please? I didnt think it makes that much of a difference.

http://www.examiner.com/article/gta-5-pc-ps3-and-xbox-360-sales-compared-by-take-two-interactive

The PS3+GTA V bundle also helped PS3 outsell 360 in the US in that month for a fairly good margin.

 

[Steroyd]

Yeah, but looking at ww ltd for both ps3 and 360, it seems like they were wrong about that.

The Wii.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

That is a joke post right? People are rushing out to buy consoles for a game they could have played last year on the PS3?

It's a nice bonus for people new to the console, but no one is going out to buy one specifically for it.

If anything the gap should close, MS has a strong lineup in the next few months. PS4 has DriveClub.

Jeez man you sound like you are in denial.

'No-one' is going to buy a PS4 because of TLOU: Remastered? That's something else.

And I'll remember this post when July's NPD figures are released. The gap between the Bone and the PS4 will almost certainly grow compared to June in NA.

God knows how much it will increase world-wide in July, it has got to be something like 4:1 or something.

 

[Melchiah]

That is a joke post right? People are rushing out to buy consoles for a game they could have played last year on the PS3?

It's a nice bonus for people new to the console, but no one is going out to buy one specifically for it.

If anything the gap should close, MS has a strong lineup in the next few months. PS4 has DriveClub.

Pretty much the same could be said about the Halo collection as well. There's also LBP3 coming to the PS4 this year, and SingStar which is a big franchise in Europe, with over 20 million sales behind. Not to mention, that Destiny is heavily marketed for the PS4. The same thing lead to Watch Dogs selling far more on the PS4.

 

[Xando]

Get ready to be disappointed this holiday, no way MCC can move enough consoles to change the current trend.

The MCC hype kinda reminds me of the Titanfall hype.
And we all know how that ended.

 

[Graphics Horse]

But hell I'm basing this off nonholiday numbers and hope.

If you extrapolate non-holiday numbers then The one is only going to sell around 2.2m a year in the US!
Big question is how much they sell in the last few months of the year, they'll need to at minimum replicate their launch months to do the numbers you're talking.