CelticVegas
Banned
Congratulations to Sony and Playstation. They deserve this success.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Sony FY2015 Q2: PS4 shipment 4 million, cumulative sell in at 29.3 million
- Thread starter noobie
- Start date
I believe they are expecting 39 million shipped in by the end of march and next year is looking really good for Sony as far as software goes. It's very possible.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
One's a platformer and the other's a beat 'em up, so you can't even compare them like that lol.
serversurfer
Member
lol True enough. Hence my pondering.
Nope, but it seems intuitive to me that "A game of your choice" would generally be more appealing than "A game of our choice." That's why I asked if anyone had some evidence that the latter was just as appealing as the former, thereby eliminating the need for unbundled consoles.
Well, they are buying the game and hoping it's the right one though I suppose that's less obvious if there's no gameless option sitting next to it. Still, the "free game" angle may have some merit, I suppose. Perhaps that actually serves to subtly increase overall spending. For example, let's assume the average console buyer typically buys 1.7 games along with their new system, so they have something to play. My assumption would be that including a game with the console would reduce that tie ratio by ~1, but perhaps it's significantly less. Maybe rather than selling 0.7 games with the average bundle, it's closer to 1.2 or something. Again though, that seems somewhat counterintuitive to me, so I'd be interested in seeing those numbers sometime, if they exist.
Well, it would include UC4, but I seriously doubt retailers are paying $45 for TLoU, since it's retailing for $20 or less. And yes, as I said initially, Sony will profit a few bucks more on the bundles, but that seems like a comparatively small gain if it involves turning their back on anyone not interested in the bundled games. Yes, a few may go ahead and buy the system with the game they don't care about, but I imagine most would rather just wait, especially when they've already waited this long. And I'm not arguing we should eliminate the bundles, but rather that they shouldn't be the only "option" for the consumer.
Well, it's a bit more than a possibility, which is sorta central to my point. The system isn't much good without at least one game, and the general assumption is that the user is going to end up buying several throughout the life of the machine. The only question is whether Sony pick my first game with a $10 discount, or I ignore the discount and choose my own game. Except for some reason, Sony have seen fit to eliminate the latter choice. And no, a DQ fan obviously isn't going to defect, but they may continue to wait to jump in to Gen8 if their only bundle options are shooting, shooting, or shooting. How does that benefit Sony?
-------------------------------------------------
Another possibility that occurred to me is that the bundles help keep retail happy. We've been discussing how much money goes to the publishers and platform holders, but keep in mind that Walmart was hoping to make $15 themselves selling that copy of Uncharted. Since Walmart make nothing on the hardware, "selling games" was the only reason they stocked the damned thing in the first place. By bundling, Sony would effectively be stepping in and intercepting any chance at profit on that game from new users, and there will be millions of new users over the next few months. So perhaps any margins on these bundles are going to retail rather than Sony. A TLoU bundle that wholesales for $310 and retails for $350 would be quite appealing to retailers indeed.
RetailGAF, do you have any insight here? I know console hardware is effectively zero margin for y'all, but do the bundles grease your wheels at all?
The Artisan
Member
I heard that while Ps4 is still outpacing Ps2, that that's by worldwide standards, and that the NA Ps4 numbers have already slipped behind Ps2's. Is this true?
Yup.
November 2016.
PS4 sold 1.9 million last holidays in the US ( Holidays = Nov and Dec, don't include October).
I predict 2.7 million this holidays. So, +800k compared to last holidays.
Some like 1.3 million in November and 1.4 million in December.
Call of Duty, Star Wars, and Fallout will sell insane numbers of PS4.
Eh, my first PS4 prediction for this quarter was 7.8 million, but i also predicted 3 million last quarter.
They shipped WAY more than what i expect... this mean that maybe they sold more than what i expected, but most likely that they overshipped the quarter wayting for the PS4 boost in October / November with the pricedrop and the bundles incoming.
So, i don't know... since they overshipped this quarter, maybe i will decrease a bit my prediction. So, i say 7.5 million and not 7.8 million.
But maybe you should see this... xD
gundamkyoukai
Member
I don't think it's overshipping i remember last year that after xmas period people were having problems finding PS4 in certain parts of EU .
If anything unlike last year i just expect the rest of the world going to get a better supply .
The USA only makes up around 35% of Sony numbers but they got way more supply that any where else last year .
The only reason the ps4 is ahead of the ps2 ww is because for ~1/3 of the time the ps2 was only out in japan.
If you compare both beginning with the us start of the ps2 it's not even close ww.
The Artisan
Member
you wouldn't happen to know when it happened or how much of a slip it was would you?
I wonder if it can start getting back up & outpacing it again.
Gnam gnam.
As i said more times, the reason of PS4 > PS2 WW is because the firsts 6 months of comparation, the PS2 was released only in Japan...
So, for the firsts 6 months is: PS2 in Japan VS PS4 in US, EU, JP, and other countries.
That's why PS4 was WAY over PS2... but PS2 will inevitable beat PS4 in maximum 1 year. Even sooner.
About US, i really doubt PS4 back above PS2.
It was selling better for the firsts 4 months, but since the first March, PS2 is started to sell in beasting level.
The Artisan
Member
That really puts things into perspective. I wonder if Ps4 can even cross 100 million now.
I think it can. It'll no doubt do over 50 million next year and once it hits $299 you enter the mass consumer pricing.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I thin PS4 will end up being just over 100m when it is all said and done.
Gnam gnam.
As i said more times, the reason of PS4 > PS2 WW is because the firsts 6 months of comparation, the PS2 was released only in Japan...
So, for the firsts 6 months is: PS2 in Japan VS PS4 in US, EU, JP, and other countries.
That's why PS4 was WAY over PS2... but PS2 will inevitable beat PS4 in maximum 1 year. Even sooner.
About US, i really doubt PS4 back above PS2.
It was selling better for the firsts 4 months, but since the first March, PS2 is started to sell in beasting level.
the ps4 is also more expensive though
100 millions is definitive possible for PS4, and i'm not shocked if will sell that much.
But i honestly think those guys who said 100m is a given are too optimist... as for now i predict 90-95 million. We will see.
That's true, but this will not change for the years to come. Just like PS3 is still very, VERY expensive for be a 9 years old console... i think we will see a similar trend with PS4.
The Artisan
Member
Depending on when the nx releases, I wonder if it'll kill the Ps4's momentum. Because by that point, for anyone who hasn't bought an 8th gen system, the nx will be the newest, freshest piece of hardware on the martlet & may capture more potential consumer attention than the Ps4.
When it does come down to $299, I feel like the momentum won't be as strong if it were going from $399-->$299 since it's already $50 cheaper, so it'll be going from $349 to $299.
I don't know. The NX is going to have to have the third party support. I think as far as home consoles go Nintendo has become increasingly irrelevant. They have to really knock it out of the park with the NX.
gundamkyoukai
Member
PS4 will not past PS2 in NA .
When PS2 was around the xbox brand had no power .
PS4 has to share it's NA sales with Xbox and there is no way PS4 will sell 50 million in NA.
That will change unlike the PS3 it was design with that in mind .
You can bet PS4 will get to a lower price than PS3 did and faster .
Unless it keeps on selling at this pace.
When PS2 was around the xbox brand had no power .
PS4 has to share it's NA sales with Xbox and there is no way PS4 will sell 50 million in NA.
That will change unlike the PS3 it was design with that in mind .
You can bet PS4 will get to a lower price than PS3 did and faster .
Unless it keeps on selling at this pace.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Talking about perspectives: PS4 just had its first $50 price cut after almost 2 years. The PS2 was reduced by $100 in May 2002, 1,5 years after its launch in the US, giving it a tremendous market push.
So it's far too early to announce a winner. That said, it is highly likely that PS4 will have a shorter PLC than any of its predecessors.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
That's one of the things that Sony has explicitly set out to do differently this generation. The PS3 stayed expensive because of its eccentric hardware, not because Sony thought it was an optimal strategy.
We might not see a $100 PS4 super-slim anytime soon, but Sony aren't going to linger above $300 like they did with the PS3.
yurinka
Member
The exact WiiU numbers we had from last year were 93% of male, and 93% 18+ years old. So basically no kids, teenagers or female players there.
PS4 has a 2016 full of great games including the debut this gen of big seller frachises thanks to a great 1st party line-up, 3rd party and indie support. Recently had the price cut and until now had a great market share, so the friend factor for multiplayer or sharing games will favor it. Everything points next year PS4 will sell even better.
NX will have to fight against a giant installbase with a great library. If wants to fight for the same market than PS4, will need similar architecture and horsepower to ease multiplatform ports, get the attention of the 3rd parties and don't focus on bizarre controls. In addition to that, will need something appealing like a way cheaper price, extra horsepower, great exclusives and something extra the others can't offer that highly appeals a great number of players.
It would be really, really difficult for NX so I assume they will choose again to find a separate, own market.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Yeah, you maybe right. But I for one can only see niche markets and no blue oceans. NX maybe Nintendo's biggest challenge ever.
serversurfer
Member
Well, it wouldn't really be an over-shipment, if shipments were increased to meet increased demand from the incoming price cut. Yes, to arrive in time for the price cut in early October, they'd need to start increasing shipments the last week of August*, but since the plan is for those units to fly off the shelves when the price cut is announced, so there's no "overstock" for them to work through in Nov/Dec, so similarly no need to reduce shipments for that quarter. On the contrary, the increased shipments that were likely fully underway in September would serve to forecast increased demand for the holiday quarter. So if they really did ship "an extra million" to sell in October at the new price judged against your pre-cut prediction of 3M then one would assume they also figure on selling quite a few at the new price in November and December, and even in to January.
*That would also mean the "29M before a price cut" talk isn't technically correct, but whatever, since that boast already ignores the bundling they've been doing since last Christmas.
Well, keep in mind the build costs on the PS4 have already dropped pretty significantly. They're selling it for ~US$290 in Japan, and they said they're profitable at that price point.
That said, it will have a higher price floor than the PS2, mostly because of the hard drive. If they can replace that with a decent amount of low cost flash at some point, that would reduce a fairly significant chunk of the manufacturing expense, I'd imagine.
The Artisan
Member
I thought the main reason the wii u (and the wii for that matter) lost 3rd party support was because its hardware was way, way, way behind in raw power when compared to the other consoles on the market. I heard a rumor that nx isn't supposed to be a huge step above the wii u, but as long as it's in the same ball park as the other 8th gen consoles (which again raises the question of if this'll be 9th gen or 8th gen replacement, but that's not what I'm bringing in here) wouldn't that be enough to garner 3rd party support?
why'd they cut the Ps2 price that soon? were they selling at a loss at that point?
I guess at that time sony could afford to bleed, that certainly can't be said now, although serversurfer did say above that sony's losing $40-$45 per every Ps4 sold after the price cut.
so...it won't be competing in the console market?
The Artisan
Member
Ps3 was also on the market for 7 years (before a successor). Do you think this generation will last as long?
Good point, forgot that, if it last as much i think 130m but maybe it won't so 110/115m.
joecanada
Member
Good point but say 100 million ps4 in 5 years would be considered a big increase on 90 million in 7 years for PS3.
Obviously total sales are of interest but sales per year is more important as long as you are still in the game ( releasing new hardware)
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
PS4 will hit sub $200 (even sub $100) at some point. So it won't simply die off like the PS3 did when new hardware comes to market. Sony's biggest problem with the PS3 was that it was unable to get the pricepoint down.
Imo price get underestimated in these type of discussions. PS4 is still $100 above Wii when it was wrecking havoc and $150 above the pricepoint where the PS2 was getting the majority of it's sales.
ninjablade
Banned
Ps4 is not gonna get destroyed in north america like the ps3 did by the 360, and then You have the wii, even though it mostly sold to a different audience, it still gonna help the ps4 get a few more sales, nothing major though. Ps4 should sell 115 million.
The Artisan
Member
for the record though, I do hope that this generation lasts at least as long as the last. the more years you get out of it, the greater the investment it was for how many years ago you purchased it.
that would definitely be a huge increase. as long as this momentum continues I think it can break 100 million. i wonder if at some point it'll cross the 3ds ltd as well.
when the new hardware (Ps5) comes to the market, that's what's going to get all of sony's promotion, though.
serversurfer
Member
Eh? I never said that. I said the bundled software costs Sony $40-$45 per copy, so bundling it with a $300 console for $350 only makes them an extra $5-$10 profit per console.
The PS4 is selling for ~US$292 in Japan, and Sony said that was profitable for them, so we know a PS4 costs "less than $292" to build. Shipping them shouldn't cost more than a few bucks a unit. So $300 with no game in the US should be break-even for them at worst, and anyone buying the unbundled console is all but certain to buy a game for it, meaning profit for Sony. Plus, they may get Plus, etc.
$100 is NEVER gonna happen.
Sub $200 will also be hard. Maybe if they yank HDD and BD drive out, but then they will still have to pay a lot for 8gigs of ram, 16nm finfet APU, complicated motherboard and ~80W PSU.
KurtSloane
Banned
Nintendo haven't had true 3rd party support since the GameCube and even then it lagged behind PS2 and OG Xbox.
I will put money on that it will not get the same level of 3rd party support as the rest.
In fact NX will remain a console for Nintendo gamers only, apart from Wii, Nintendo have been selling to the same base since N64, around 30m and even that has shrunk with Wii U.
Nintendo are totally irrelevant in the home console space in regards to market share.
The NX is going to sell to fans of Nintendo consoles & games. If they can milk their portable user base it'll do fine, if not it'll be another WiiU.
One of the things people forget about Nintendo is until the market breakout success of the Wii they'd never had a100m+ selling home console. Portables yes, but not living room boxes. IMO their historical market for consoles was ~50m at the peak and they've failed to retain those fans, many of whom I suspect as they've aged have gone to PC in search of the kind of deep minute-to-minute game mechanics associated with Nintendo, leaving only the real core supporters left to buy consoles.
One of the things people forget about Nintendo is until the market breakout success of the Wii they'd never had a100m+ selling home console. Portables yes, but not living room boxes. IMO their historical market for consoles was ~50m at the peak and they've failed to retain those fans, many of whom I suspect as they've aged have gone to PC in search of the kind of deep minute-to-minute game mechanics associated with Nintendo, leaving only the real core supporters left to buy consoles.
The Artisan
Member
My mistake. So if a Ps4 costs less than $292 to build, they would actually be fine with selling it at $299, but they want to make more profit.
I thought that was the point of nx, to try and become relevant in the console market again? So what's the point of them coming out with an early console if it won't make much difference?
Some say this is the last generation. What if it really is.
anexanhume
Member
you are already dead dot jpeg
Selling for $299 = loosing money, cause you have shipping cost (storage cost) + retailer mark-up.
The Artisan
Member
so they're just breaking even with $350?
The tendentious use of figures and doublethink continues from Kyle Orland and Ars technical. Several days later...
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/
The PlayStation 4 now controls roughly 52 percent of the worldwide console market (Fig. 4) and enjoys its largest ever relative lead over the Xbox One in this market.
vs
In other words, while the Xbox One is increasing its sales at a faster rate than the PS4, Microsoft still lost more ground to Sony this year than last on an absolute basis.
lol from a certain perspective (making up Xbo360 vs one split) Xbox is "increasing faster", but still losing on an absolute basis.
The fuckmuppetry is pure, so pure.
Don't read anything into it "fellow consumers".
http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2015/...-widen-its-console-sales-lead-over-microsoft/
The PlayStation 4 now controls roughly 52 percent of the worldwide console market (Fig. 4) and enjoys its largest ever relative lead over the Xbox One in this market.
vs
In other words, while the Xbox One is increasing its sales at a faster rate than the PS4, Microsoft still lost more ground to Sony this year than last on an absolute basis.
lol from a certain perspective (making up Xbo360 vs one split) Xbox is "increasing faster", but still losing on an absolute basis.
The fuckmuppetry is pure, so pure.
Don't read anything into it "fellow consumers".
In a few years he'll use the 10th derivation of sales to find a spin.
No, i only wanted to say that their actual bom has to be a chunk lower than $292 for them to sell it @ $292 and make a profit.
If they are profitable in japan @ $292 they should also be profitable in the us @ $300.
The Artisan
Member
but you just said they'd be losing money at that price point due to shipping costs.
LMAO. It's mental gymnastics
serversurfer
Member
A 40' container will hold 1980 PS4s, and it only costs ~$3300 to ship a container from Shanghai to Los Angeles, and that's as a one-off; contract rates will be substantially lower. Their shipping costs are pretty nominal; likely not much more than a buck a unit, if any. Retail likely absorbs any in-country distribution and warehousing costs, as they already have the infrastructure. I don't know about in Japan, but here in the States, retail gets effectively zero markup on the consoles themselves.
Yeah i meant if the bom is $292.
What i tried to say was that the bom has to be a good chunk under $292 for them so make a profit @ $292.
My mistake, was a badly written post.
Yeah, it's true that shipping and storing only accounts for a few $.
The big part is the retailer mark-up.
And i know it's always said that they virtually make nothing out of it but that's because the margin is far lower compared to software/peripherals.
But the absolute number is higher.
It's about 10% for Gamestop, so that would be $30 for a $300 ps4.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/23/3-things-to-watch-when-gamestop-corp-reports-ear-2.aspx
So for them to sell it for $292 and making a profit the bom should be <$260.
Chocolate Thunder
Banned
How many Xbones sold?
DriftingSpirit
Member
We do not know. MS is no longer reporting console sales. They are now measuring success based on Xbox Live.