-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Sony FY2015 Q2: PS4 shipment 4 million, cumulative sell in at 29.3 million
- Thread starter noobie
- Start date
Big Green Anus
Member
Verendus, why is there no new Crash?
There's no point in having a Crash game when there's Knack, which is MUCH superior in game design, but needs better character design.
Those consoles also had a good family presence (the 360 essentially got its biggest shot in the arm from Kinect) but we were talking about generational victors, not 2nd and 3rd place. This thread is about the current generational victor and my argument was that the huge breadth of software is not currently in the traditional console market. What little pieces of non-young-male focused software that remains aren't selling like they used to because of actual growth markets taking those customers away (mobile, PC). This is why predictions based on past numbers (such as predicting this generation's victor to pass the previous ones) may not be analogous because many segments aren't really currently engaged in the traditional market. The software that most major publishers are putting out is also very focused to one demographic for the most part, which is dangerous in many respects. Not just the lack of growth potential, but the very fact that the software being more expensive to produce means WE (that remain) are going to have to be monetized even more than we already are.
Chobel
Member
Only in US (and maybe UK). In other countries, PS4 (PS3) sells more family-friendly software, even though it's mainly because MS/Nintendo practically have no presence on these countries.
The Artisan
Member
this article suggests 15 million xbones sold, but I think it's shipped since it's talking about Ps4 being at 29.3 million.
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/ps4-sales-continue-to-rapidly-outpace-the-opposition/0158189
http://www.mcvuk.com/news/read/ps4-sales-continue-to-rapidly-outpace-the-opposition/0158189
Do we even know for sure? Even taking these at face value, PS4 is slowly increasing its lead. Now its about 2 to 1
The Artisan
Member
it just seems to be the common estimation for right now. here's another
http://www.ibtimes.com/ps4-vs-xbox-...ion-4-units-sold-q2-293-million-total-2161708
MCV is trade press so it's likely when they say 'sold' they're talking about sell in, not sell through since that's what trade readers will be most familiar with.
The interesting comment in that IBTimes article is that PS4 game & hardware sales are fully compensating for the decline in PS3.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
I think it's a motley assortment of PC purists, Nintendo loyalists who refuse to believe you can have a successful console without targeting grandma (see part 2 of this post), and armchair futurists enamored with the idea that "mobile is changing everything."
The top console in three of the last four generations has been a PlayStation targeting young male gamers. The flight of the casuals to mobile is a matter of grave concern for Nintendo, but clearly not for Sony.
The PS4 is selling comparably to the Wii and PS2 at a drastically higher price point. Either the PS4 is attractive to casuals or it doesn't need to be.
That's certainly something Microsoft can't claim with the decline in 360, that well's nearly dry.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Yeah, I'd say 15 million shipped is about right.
Yup and I'd say at years end 20 million is a good number with the PS4 being at about 35 million.
I was gonna say that I thought 5 mil to be a little high, but then I remembered it's the holidays and they have about like 10+ different bundles out or going to be out by the end of the year.
So yeah, 20 mil shipped by the years end sounds right.
Mikey Jr.
Member
Gap is widening, not shrinking or staying the same. So I doubt it's going to still be a 15 Mil gap. I expect more.
The gap in sales in the US is about 850-900k, right?
I'm really interested to see how that plays out by the end of this holiday season. Last year MS pulled out a lot of stops to close up the gap, and did really well. But in the end the PS4 is now in a better position that it was even one year ago going into that season.
And I really don't think MS is even considering another $50 drop at this point, it wouldn't make sense. They'd lose way too much dosh.
ninjablade
Banned
Every sinlge playstation console has targeted the traditional gamer,the p1, ps2, ps3 and ps4, back in the ps1 and ps2 days platformers and cartoony games were populer, things have changed. most gamers now prefer a mature theme in tbere games, the ps3 didnt lose cause the lack of family software, the main reason was the price, and on the subject about victory, its not really about victory its about domination, you wanna compare the wii to ps1 and ps2, those 2 consoles destroyed the competition, the wii is not even the best selling lastgen console in europe or noth america. Im still waiting to hear about these family friendly games on ps1 and ps2 that moved a ton of consoles.
Yea you guys are right. No doubt PS4 will sell as much as it can produce. Their marketing and bundles imo are just at another level.
IAmRandom31
Banned
I still think the $50 price drop was a mistake. 2016 is the big software year and you want as many consumers with your equipment as possible. Dropping to $299 would of been a headline grabber and is the general point in which people think of a casual purchase. I think they could of killed during BF even moreso then they already will with the Star Wars and COD bundles. And the price drop would of kept sells high through into early 2016 and beyond. Setting them up for potentially 40m consumers ready to big software launches like Ratchet and Clank and Uncharted and Dark Souls 3 and such early next year. Would also increase potential profits of the potential sleeper hits like The Witness early in the year.
We will see how this holiday goes. I'm just still shocked they went with a $50 drop. $100 is like their staple drop. Trademarked even! Lol
We will see how this holiday goes. I'm just still shocked they went with a $50 drop. $100 is like their staple drop. Trademarked even! Lol
Imru al-Qays;183681269 said:
If you guys honestly both think playstation has been successful solely due to young male gamers, you're going to have a tough couple of generations watching what console gaming becomes over the next decade. And I don't think anything is going to change that trajectory. Not ps4+, not ps5, not nx, and not even initially VR due to its insane buy in price. And ninja blade stop trying to twist numbers already, it's tiring and unnecessary. Numbers are numbers. Look at total sell through and it is what it is.
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Banned
You are comparing game design from 2013 to 1998 (the last Crash platformer by Naughty Dog). Not exactly a fair comparison. A Crash reboot that has a big budget and takes gameplay inspiration from SMG, SM3DWorld, SM3DLand, SMSunshine and developed by SCEAJ with Naughty Dog overseeing it would be very successful IMHO (ice on the cake Andy Gavin, Jason Rubin and Mark Cerny hired as contractors to oversee the project).
I never played Knack. I don't have a PS4 yet and its low metacritic score has thrown me off the game. I think the character is charming though, but it's no Crash.
I think we'll see a $299 BF PS4 bundle of some kind. A $299 PS4 would have killed the competition, but I don't know if Sony could have kept up with demand. They probably decided on a more modest price drop so they could keep up with demand while still being profitable on HW alone (though I think at this point they would probably make a small profit at $299 on the PS4 hardware).
ninjablade
Banned
When i talk gamers, im talking casuals as well, i person who's doesnt really do much gaming might just buy a playstaion console on a impulse buy,just for one game like fifa, madden, ass creed, gtav, batman, cod,and because its the cool console to own, and hype. as for twisting numbers, im not, im giving you facts. You probably don't like it cause it makes your argument look silly. Ps3 sold better then wii in europe and 360 sold better in the usa those are facts. Try bringing facts instead of just your opinion. How can we talk about what moves consoles with out talking about regions? Since of course each region have different trends. Show me these family friendly games that push the ps1 and ps2 too sell so much units, fifa alone probably sold 40 million ps2 alone.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
No one ever said PlayStation has been successful solely due to young male gamers. But that's been its target demographic literally every generation since the PS1 launched.
So yes, numbers are numbers. Console gaming isn't dying, and it doesn't even really appear to be changing that much demographically.
Sony with the PS1 was just following Sega's Genesis marketing playbook, which was to market itself as the cooler, more mature console compared to Nintendo's more kid-friendly console. For example, Crash Bandicoot is pretty much a Sonic Expy, one of many Mascots With Attitude from that era, and that game's commercials had him dissing Mario as Sonic's did. The PS1 and PS2's biggest hits were generally the more mature, realistic games of those generations like GTA, Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, Resident Evil, Tekken, Metal Gear Solid, and Tomb Raider, with kid-friendly PlayStation successes like Crash Bandicoot and Kingdom Hearts being exceptions.
serversurfer
Member
I think MS have been making it fairly clear they don't consider their console business to be particularly relevant anymore. When Nadella took over, he said they'd be focusing on Windows, Office, and the cloud, and added that while gaming didn't seem particularly relevant to Microsoft's core interests, it was actually the biggest segment "in a mobile-first world" and he felt they could have an impact there. Note, he said mobile phones and tablets not consoles or even computers. Gaming is important to mobile, and mobile is important to MS.
When asked about the sales disparity with the PS4 recently, Phil said it didn't matter because he had users on 360, Bone, and Windows to worry about now. When asked about the recent trend of bringing XBox games to Windows, he basically said even MS can't afford to make exclusives for the Bone anymore, and if it weren't for the Windows versions, these games may not get made at all, so look for most or all of their games to appear on Windows in the future. In fact, I believe he said the only reason games like Halo and Gears aren't sim-launching on Windows is because they didn't realize until development was well underway. He recently told Polygon he's obliterating the distinction between XBox and PC. Everything is Windows now.
And if there was any doubt remaining whether they considered consoles to be significant for them going forward, their recent earnings report made it quite clear that they don't, because they'll no longer be reporting them, at all. Now it's all about Live logins. XBox's primary purpose is luring people on to Microsoft's servers.
XBox doesn't really have a future as a console. Its future is to be the brand name for gaming on Windows; primarily on phones and tablets, to hear Nadella tell it, though I suspect they have Steam in their sights in addition to Apple and Google. Much like the Vita, the Bone is basically a legacy product; a living relic from a time gone by. I actually have to hand it to MS. They've actually been pretty straightforward about their intentions, but have still managed to be subtle enough that many would say the idea that they've moved past consoles is crazy. lol
What baffles me is the $350 price point includes a game that Sony are likely paying like $40-$45 for, which is what Walmart would've paid EA/Acti for a copy. So the $350 bundle only profits Sony $5-$10 more than a $300 gameless console would profit for them, and as you say, the $300 price point is better in a number of ways, especially if you have little or no interest in the bundled games.
So yeah, $300 with no game is nearly the same from Sony's perspective, and has a much broader appeal for consumers. Maybe they're waiting until closer to Christmas, or for the PSVR launch. /shrug
DannyDanger
Member
WTF?! It's instant transmission you DBZ noob!
Maybe through the years they've found the exact opposite true, and that systems bundled with games perform better in the market than those without a game bundled in?
Instant transition can also be a separate phrase that means basically the same. They did instantly transition to console industry leader
hodayathink
Member
Two things:
First, as someone else already said, I'm not sure they'd have been able to keep up with demand at $300. Being able to sell a few more doesn't mean as much when you can't keep up with demand (i.e. if you can only make 8 million consoles for this quarter, would you rather sell 7 million at $350 or 8 million at $300)?
Second: You have to remember that Star Wars/COD is their primary holiday bundle, and this cut is going to last well past the Holidays. Once December rolls by, either Uncharted or TLOU: Remastered (or maybe both) will go back to being their default bundle, which since it's first party software costs them almost nothing to include, so it's back to pure profit.
Your argument is based on assumptions with absolutely no data, did you look at the demo data in the previous page?
EDIT: PS3 had a gender-neutral demo last gen and X360 was mostly male, but software sales for "family titles" were better on 360, proving that those games aren't bought by who you think.
Bitch Pudding
Member
As long as PS4 keeps its astonishing momentum Sony does not make a mistake.
I'm not sure but I don't think this is how it works, it's most likely far more complex to determine how much a single Battlefront copy actually costs Sony, given their exclusive marketing deal. But I just asume it's far below $50, which is why keeping that $350 price point makes sense.
serversurfer
Member
Perhaps, but I'd like to see that data if it's true. Sure, a bundle is great if you're in the market for that game anyway, but if you're not, being forced to pay $50 for something you don't really care about is a bit butt chaffing, even if it is "a $10 discount!!" It's easy to say everyone is interested in Star Wars, but since it's not going to sell 35M-40M on PS4, that's obviously not the case. The fact is, any given bundle will truly appeal only to a comparatively small cross section of users.
You have a point where $50 for TLoU is a fairly sizable markup, but if the user's plan is to buy Uncharted, it makes very little difference to Sony if they do so via bundle or retail purchase. Best for Sony would be a digital purchase at $60, but the bundle eliminates any chance of that. And again, if buying Uncharted wasn't in the user's plans because they care more about games like Dragon Quest or whatever, the bundle may eliminate the console sale entirely, meaning Sony get nothing at all, including the platform fee from the DQ sale. That seems a bit shortsighted of them.
I suppose it could be a supply thing, but I imagine they can crank them out pretty quickly by now if they choose to, and they've had the entire off season to build stock.
Retailers pay ~$45 for a copy of a game. It's unlikely Sony are paying EA much less than Walmart would for the same product. EA are looking to come out ahead on their deal with Sony, not behind. Maybe Sony are getting volume pricing of $40/copy or something like that, but they're not making tons of money on these bundles, especially when you consider the fact that anyone not forced to buy a bundle is still going to end up buying a game to go with it anyway. Sony are gonna get paid in the end either way, so you've really accomplished little apart from eliminating the user's ability to choose their first game.
I just can't figure out why they feel that's a good strategy at this time.
Nightengale
Member
CoD and Battlefront are also games that it's fair to assume >90% of those who pick em up will also pick up PS+, so it's not like Sony doesn't recoup from the get-go, even if they're pushing their margins extremely thin for those Battlefront bundles.
ArchedThunder
Banned
I think it will stay at $349(excluding sales that retailers do themselves) until the launch of the PS4 slim next year. I also agree that it probably costs less than $299 to make a PS4 right now, so it will be interesting to see what the slim launches at, I'm thinking somewhere around $249-279
15 million sounds about right. I personally have the XB1 at around 15.2 million shipped by the end of September.
With the PS4 shipment numbers being 29.3 million by the end of September, I am quite confident the bare minimum of the shipment numbers by the end of 2015 would be 36 million. Assuming Sony produces and ships enough PS4's, 37 million could also be possible.
serversurfer said:
Because they have access to a ton of retail & consumer behaviour you don't and are making that decision in line with their business needs.
Can you provide any evidence at all that people - especially parent given the time of year it is - buying gaming systems see greater value in a standalone unit or a bundle that costs $50 more?
Also if it is a bundle with a physical disc, like the ones that GameStop sells, a person can just sell an unwanted pack-in to GameStop and buy a different game with that cash.
And if it is a bundle with a digital code, it gets people using the console's online service and hopefully encourages them to buy more off of the digital store which nets more money per purchase than selling at retail.
In either case, the bundled game either serves a strategic purpose in encouraging customers to eventually part with their money in a more lucrative way for the console maker, or can be exchanged by the customer to get another game effectively.
IAmRandom31
Banned
You know with the gaming division in the black by 190m+ that is plenty of money to get Kojima on board, build him and team and get a new project underway with him directing. 80 million budget wouldn't cut into those profits too much. And they are 190 in the black at the height of so many projects. 2016 will see them raking in the dough as all these projects get released and start pulling profits and all the other exclusive projects hit.
So yeah. Definitely could happen. Plenty to pay off Sakaguchi to collab with Sony Japan for an epic JRPG too.
So yeah. Definitely could happen. Plenty to pay off Sakaguchi to collab with Sony Japan for an epic JRPG too.
hodayathink
Member
I think what appeals to people isn't the specific game involved so much as the perception of value that comes with a free game. Especially if it's a newer one. Also, it can make people looking to buy it as a gift less afraid of the overall starting cost, as they don't immediately have to buy a game for the system when they purchase it.
You just said for yourself that you think retailers pay $45 for a game. Which would include games like Uncharted and TLOU. So if that were true, Sony would actually be making $5 by bundling it in with the added price as opposed to letting them buy it with the system. That, and you'd rather take a guaranteed $50 when they buy the system than the possibility of $60 later on. And the person looking for Dragon Quest, for instance, isn't going to skip buy the PS4 at all because it came bundled with a different game, especially since, you know, Dragon Quest isn't coming to Xbox (and will probably be a very different game on 3DS/possibly NX). As far as that's concerned, the only thing they'd have to worry about is if the competition is actually selling a bundle for the game (for example, a Fallout fan may be more likely to buy an Xbox One this holiday because that comes bundled with Fallout as opposed to having to buy a PS4 and Fallout 4 separately).
PS4 need to ship 7.7 million this quarter for be at 37 million shipped. Last year it shipped 6.4 million, and need a 20% YOY increase.
...Yeah, it seem likely. If not, will be definitive close.
DriftingSpirit
Member
This is also another important factor in these deals. It is a great opportunity for Sony to make their PS+ subs skyrocket. So, they may have no qualms with cutting at their hardware margins to make it up in pure profit with PS+.
Once 2016 begins, they go back to focusing on bundling their own software and even the profit on hardware goes back to a nice level.
I just think it benefits Sony and Microsoft more to go with value bundles rather than drop the price even more. For example, they have more room for cuts in the future.
The Artisan
Member
yeah I think it is possible considering there's a price cut now and Q1 and even Q2 for playstation is gonna be hella stacked
20% yoy increase is reasonable considering that last year PS4 had a relatively lukewarm holiday season in the US and yet they shipped 6.4m consoles.
This year they're in for very strong numbers in US and Europe and Japan will also be up compared to last year.
I'd say that 7.5m shipped for Q4 is really likely, which would put the total at the of the year at 36.8 millions.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
50 million when?
Q2 FY 2016 is my guess.
Q2 FY 2016 is my guess.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Calm waterfall
Banned
It should top last year easily. The price drop alone should guarantee that, not to mention Christmas offers and big franchise bundles. At least in the US i expect Sony to outsell last year´s October-December quarter by 500k.
inpHilltr8r
Member
Sony also pay in marketing.