Virtual Console I'll give you, but it really irks me when people say it's overpriced. Their games HAVE to be RRP else retailers will stop stocking their products. The RRP is also lower than the RRP of PS4 and Xbox One games, even many PS3 and Xbox 360 games.
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The Real Possibility of Imminent Change to Nintendo's Strategy (at Q3 Results)
- Thread starter Aquamarine
- Start date
Virtual Console I'll give you, but it really irks me when people say it's overpriced. Their games HAVE to be RRP else retailers will stop stocking their products. The RRP is also lower than the RRP of PS4 and Xbox One games, even many PS3 and Xbox 360 games.
I was talking to my hairdresser today and she mentioned getting a Wii U this Christmas for when her grandson comes to visit, and that they had had a lot of fun playing just dance on it. I was shocked since this is UK where most casuals don't know what the thing is. So perhaps not all hope is lost!
Me too but I don't see how they can do this in the near future without either dropping the gamepad or eating an enormous loss.
WrenchNinja
Member
Maybe in the UK stores.
Is it really at parity to the PS4/Xbox One in the US? That's ridiculous.
Here, Nintendo's offerings are £34.99, £39.99 with the occasional ridiculous £49.99. On the PS4 store, it was £52.99 as an absolute lowest, except for Angry Birds which was £39.99
Yeah, it is definitely in Nintendo's interest to keep selling hardware. Doing almost anything on mobile wouldn't help at all. Not only would it make Nintendo's hardware less appealing, I'm not sure mobile would actually make Nintendo any real money. Nintendo's only real path forward is pretty much try to make more appealing hardware, even if that makes this current console cycle a "sit-out" for them.
People are talking about ARM consoles and the possibility of Nintendo putting out a single software platform that runs on both handheld and console, which sounds like a good idea. I'm not sure about a tablet though. People buy tablets for general use which just happens to include games. Perhaps having the only tablet that plays Mario and Mario Kart might be a draw if Nintendo could get the general support of existing mobile developers, but that's a big if, and how would Nintendo compete with Apple and other tablet manufacturers feature-wise? They already refuse to compete with Microsoft and Sony in terms of sheer tech.
I think Nintendo's next pieces of hardware should be something in the middle, like what the Kindle Fire is -- obviously meant for one main purpose, but great at other tasks too. It's frankly what Sony should have done with the Vita -- marketed it as a 4" tablet that can play games way better than any other tablet. If Nintendo did this it should bring it out alongside a console running on the same OS and architecture that also makes for a great streaming box. No media streaming box has nailed gaming yet, much less family living room gaming. Market that thing as an Apple TV alternative that your family can use to play Mario Kart together (the same Mario Kart you bought on Nintendo's handheld), and we might have something here.
Manmademan
Member
The WiiU isn't (only) competing with the PS4. It's competing with the PS3 and Xbox 360, both of which are still viable consoles with the same specifications, better third party support, and lower price points across the board.
I can't speak for Xbox live, but PS3 games are on sale (via plus) all the goddamn time, well below MSRP.
H_Prestige
Banned
If they go that far in creating a small console, they would be better off with a "3DS TV". At least that way they won't have to create separate software for it.
WrenchNinja
Member
I feel this sort of thinking skirts the real software issue with Wii U. It's not that Nintendo's franchises have inherently lost selling power and mainstream appeal, the problem is that diminishing returns have finally caught up to Nintendo and 3DS now offers a similar enough experience for most people to be content with. There's just not much need for the majority to spend $300+ on a Wii U for NSMB, Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Smash Bros and so on when they can get something pretty similar (plus Pokémon) on a $130 device already. This dynamic is something relatively new for Nintendo too as all their previous console and handheld ecosystems (SNES & GB, N64 & GBC, GC & GBA, Wii & DS) had enough of a technology difference that it often forced relatively different core game designs within the same series of games or kept some games exclusively on one side.
Comparisons to PS3/360 sort of miss the point, Wii U was never going to compete with mature 8 year old systems on those terms and shouldn't have been expected to sell on those merits. The biggest problem with Wii U is that Nintendo already offers something significantly cheaper that already delivers basically the same thing.
H_Prestige
Banned
sörine;95837683 said:
And for certain games (Wii series), the Wii is already adequate.
As a person who has been gaming since the C64 era, you're not representative of the mass market. You're also familiar with Nintendo, their past glories and the quality of their output, so you're more inclined to take them seriously than a fledgeling gamer weaned on the iPad and seeking out new experiences.
I don't think that Barkley's Justice was saying that Nintendo fans are blinded by nostalgia (the games are still great) but that Nintendo will suffer when they can't play the nostalgia/tradition card that remains at the core of their strategy.
How well will Mario sell to a generation that could well view him as irrelevant? What happens when parents no longer associate Nintendo with early gaming experiences in childhood and stop buying the systems for their kids?
Nintendo have evidently decided on a strategy of ultra-specialisation. For the most part they've focused on a handful of franchises that are all in similar genres and all targeted at more or less the same demographic. I can understand the reasoning for this - they're going after the casual/kid/platformer audience that drove the Wii's biggest hits and seeking an uncontested niche. However, doing this at the cost of neglecting their less popular franchises that appeal to additional demographics, or (God forbid) creating fresh IP targeted at the tastes of the new generation, is a big mistake. If one of their current titles falls out of favour, they all will, all at once. We're already seeing this to an extent with the Wii U. And with more and more children and casual gamers having their first experience of video gaming through touch devices, their niche is turning out to be much more contested than they thought.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
The problem with Nintendo only releasing a console/tablet/mobile hybrid device is that it completely eliminates a source of revenue and basically admits defeat on the console front.
Instead of Nintendo possibly selling two Mario Karts (one on a handheld, one on a console), they now only sell one, Ditto for Mario and Zelda games.
I don't see that as anything other than a short term stop gap while their core business continues to erode from both high end consoles and tablets/mobile. It's just delaying the inevitable.
Instead of Nintendo possibly selling two Mario Karts (one on a handheld, one on a console), they now only sell one, Ditto for Mario and Zelda games.
I don't see that as anything other than a short term stop gap while their core business continues to erode from both high end consoles and tablets/mobile. It's just delaying the inevitable.
I would agree with that. The audience that ate up Wii Sports and Fit probably isn't too eager to spend $300+ on just HD graphics and online play when Wii was already good enough. Nintendo really fumbled this transition on both ends and it's hard to really see a good solution to it right now. The diminishing returns problem also gives us a pretty compelling argument for the hybrid approach next gen (one spec/software library for both markets).
Putting together a PS4/XB1 level console wouldn't have really helped with this either, though it may have at least garnered them Gamecube level 3rd party support on Wii U to fill the gaps.
Schrödinger's cat
Banned
What a fantastic, enlightening OP. Thank you!
I believe something needs to change because the current direction doesn't appear to be serving Nintendo very well at the moment.
Personally, I think leveraging smartphones and tablets in order to raise Nintendo's profile would be a decent idea. I'm not talking about putting Zelda on Android. But making companion apps or promotional gadgets for these platforms that engage the user and keep Nintendo's brands visible.
I believe something needs to change because the current direction doesn't appear to be serving Nintendo very well at the moment.
Personally, I think leveraging smartphones and tablets in order to raise Nintendo's profile would be a decent idea. I'm not talking about putting Zelda on Android. But making companion apps or promotional gadgets for these platforms that engage the user and keep Nintendo's brands visible.
soulassssns
Banned
Who cares about the UK Top 40? Are there not other regions that matter more?
The problem with this argument is that, if the hybrid is a big success, then it's plausible for the Mario Kart to earn more money than the Wii U and 3DS instalments combined. It's better to have one system people are tripping over each other to get instead of two that sit on shelves. Mario Kart on Wii alone will sell more than Mario Kart on 3DS and Wii U combined, guaranteed.
You could even argue that it's more likely that a game like Mario Kart becomes a genuine phenomenon when there's just one game and everyone's playing it and recommending it to their friends.
Another thing to consider is that in this current generation Nintendo appear to be competing with themselves, with their very similar handheld and console franchise instalments eating into each other's sales. How much revenue would truly be lost?
Ultimately you're right though. A console/handheld hybrid would only be a temporary solution. In the long term they need to find a way out of the eroding hardcore/dedicated machine market they're entrenched in.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
Wii U is a false starter. Let's compare DS/Wii numbers, because that's where Nintendo wants to be aiming, to beat what they accomplished in 2006-2009. They're not going to get there on a hybrid device.
They could very well get there and exceed those software sales, and also still be able to release both mobile and console versions, if they went multiplatform on iOS/Android and consoles.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
You mean who cares about the third biggest market in the world?
Is not like US/JP sales has been stellar either...
He really does have control of the board. His nice guy image on the Nintendo Directs hides a very savy political power player.
Fourth Storm was nice enough to link this thread, also an Aquamarine thread, earlier:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=699964
If lost revenue is an issue, are smartphones really the solution? In general there's still much more profit in dedicated handheld software.
It can't hurt Nintendo to try expanding their reach though.
Hero of Legend
Member
There was an OP a couple weeks ago that proved the vast majority of Nintendo's profits over the past 20 years have been from hardware, not software, sales.
This rings true even on failing consoles.
Mobile is not the answer for Nintendo. And is obviously not even working for other Japanese companies that have embraced the medium and are hemorrhaging money.
D
Deleted member 752119
Unconfirmed Member
That's definitely true. If they could have BOTH a successful console and portable that's best for them as they can sell each franchise twice and have two hardware revenue streams.
However, other than the Wii fad, they've been diminishing greatly in the console arena after the SNES. N64 sold a lot less than it, GC sold a lot less than N64 and Wii U is looking likely to sell less than GC.
So some type of hybrid system might be a better option as it would probably be better to have one very successful platform they can focus all their development resources on and have even more strong first party games out to really maximize hardware sales. As is, with development split between console and portable we're getting 5 or so major third party releases per year on each. That's not enough for a lot of gamers to take the plunge and buy the console--3DS is more ok as it has better third party support to up the number of games worth playing per year.
If they had one platform and could get 10 or so first party games out a year, a lot more people would take the plunge. They have the better third party support in the portable arena where they've continued to dominate sales, so that's probably the stronger avenue to pursue.
I suppose another option besides having a hybrid system is to have a console and portable, but put out every game for both. Full HD version on the console, downscaled version for the portable. Then they still have the two revenue streams and can sell hardware to people who prefer portables, people who prefer gaming on the TV and sell both to people who want to play their games both ways, while upping the number of first party games per year available to anyone who owns one of the pieces of hardware.
Looks plain and boring like a commieblock there should be a huge neon sign like this
but with "BUY NINTENDO GAMES"
That sounds hard to believe, anyone have a link?
eighty(one)
Member
I'm beginning to think the next handheld will evolve from the WiiU. It's almost seeming as if WiiU is the testing ground for latency streaming and handheld ideals (DS like 2 screen console gameplay), within the home format.
I'm not expecting a handheld console hybrid, (one system as a dual device) sense, that a lot if Gaffers predict. I'm expecting the next handheld will communicate with the console, evolved from how the WiiU Gamepad communicates (with WiiU) currently, with a chip built into the handheld allowing similar streaming features.
I hope Iwata can steer the ship better (I do like his charisma); I'd like to also see him have Nintendo create or expand IPs, that cater to the core crowd - because that's part of where they're missing the mark.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
The future isn't the same as the past. Nintendo is no longer able to sell consoles or handhelds at a huge markup like they used to. There's simply too much competition for devices all around for them to make this a viable business strategy going forward.
iirc, it was just revenue, not profit.
Fourth Storm
Member
Another bonus of unifying handheld/home consoles is that it frees up time and resources. So the Mario Kart team could either work on a different game between installments, or some quality dlc. This content has the potential to bring in more revenue than what is lost for people who double dip on each NSMB, Mario Kart, etc.
That being said, I believe and Iwata has indicated that they will still be looking to sell multiple hardware in different form factors. Thus, no hybrid. But I predict that the next home console will be able to play the same games as their next portable. This boosts their home console, in that market where they are suffering the most from lack of support.
As another thread pointed out, Nintendo make more money on hardware than software, so any talk of going multiplatform or reducing the types of hardware they sell must take that into account. With Wii U, Iwata must ask himself now if he is fine selling ~20 million or less units. If not, ideas like a rebranding and selling the Gamepad as an accessory only should be considered. Actually, I like the idea of the latter more and more as long as they then make off-tv play a default hardware feature.
That being said, I believe and Iwata has indicated that they will still be looking to sell multiple hardware in different form factors. Thus, no hybrid. But I predict that the next home console will be able to play the same games as their next portable. This boosts their home console, in that market where they are suffering the most from lack of support.
As another thread pointed out, Nintendo make more money on hardware than software, so any talk of going multiplatform or reducing the types of hardware they sell must take that into account. With Wii U, Iwata must ask himself now if he is fine selling ~20 million or less units. If not, ideas like a rebranding and selling the Gamepad as an accessory only should be considered. Actually, I like the idea of the latter more and more as long as they then make off-tv play a default hardware feature.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
A great write up as per usual Aqua.
Nonetheless, Nintendo will not be achieving their current forecast as their 3DS business is simply not at the heights Nintendo wishes it to be and the Wii U, at the time of writing, still affects Nintendo's earnings negatively.
Furthermore, Nintendo's moneymaker, 3DS, has suffered a severe drop in its home country, Japan (edit:In terms of shipments). In Q3 of last year, Nintendo was able to ship over 2.94 million 3DS units in Japan alone - this number will be halved. If one observes Nintendo's current shipments LTD of the 3DS as of Q2, they stand at 13.3 million. According to Media Create, sales of the 3DS currently stand at 14.4 million. Nintendo has barely sold 1.1 million for their current quarter - 2.9 million 3DS shipments are not happening.
In addition, although 3DS sales have increased in the NOA and European markets due to the successful 2DS release, the partial rise will simply not outweigh the loss of the Japanese market as Nintendo is more profitable in their homeland, than overseas.
Furthermore, Nintendo struck gold in Q3 of last year with the successful release of Animal Crossing in Japan, selling over 2.7 million (700k were digital, increases profitably + greater revenue). In current Q3, Nintendo released Pokemon X & Y and has sold tremendously well; however, Nintendo was not alone in its publishing duties, The Pokemon Company was also involved. Hence, Pokemon revenue are shared between two parties as oppose to Animal Crossing, which is only claimed by one, Nintendo.
The Wii U on the other hand like mentioned previously still is sold at a loss and Wii U software sales have been lackluster to say the least. As a result, Super Mario 3D World sales and the revenue derived from it will most likely cover the loses incurred for hardware sales.
In the end, Nintendo will have a profitable Q3 however to which extent, that remain to be seen. I will be patiently awaiting Nintendo's Q3 results until then.
Nonetheless, Nintendo will not be achieving their current forecast as their 3DS business is simply not at the heights Nintendo wishes it to be and the Wii U, at the time of writing, still affects Nintendo's earnings negatively.
Furthermore, Nintendo's moneymaker, 3DS, has suffered a severe drop in its home country, Japan (edit:In terms of shipments). In Q3 of last year, Nintendo was able to ship over 2.94 million 3DS units in Japan alone - this number will be halved. If one observes Nintendo's current shipments LTD of the 3DS as of Q2, they stand at 13.3 million. According to Media Create, sales of the 3DS currently stand at 14.4 million. Nintendo has barely sold 1.1 million for their current quarter - 2.9 million 3DS shipments are not happening.
In addition, although 3DS sales have increased in the NOA and European markets due to the successful 2DS release, the partial rise will simply not outweigh the loss of the Japanese market as Nintendo is more profitable in their homeland, than overseas.
Furthermore, Nintendo struck gold in Q3 of last year with the successful release of Animal Crossing in Japan, selling over 2.7 million (700k were digital, increases profitably + greater revenue). In current Q3, Nintendo released Pokemon X & Y and has sold tremendously well; however, Nintendo was not alone in its publishing duties, The Pokemon Company was also involved. Hence, Pokemon revenue are shared between two parties as oppose to Animal Crossing, which is only claimed by one, Nintendo.
The Wii U on the other hand like mentioned previously still is sold at a loss and Wii U software sales have been lackluster to say the least. As a result, Super Mario 3D World sales and the revenue derived from it will most likely cover the loses incurred for hardware sales.
In the end, Nintendo will have a profitable Q3 however to which extent, that remain to be seen. I will be patiently awaiting Nintendo's Q3 results until then.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
I do not think Nintendo makes more money on hardware. They make more revenue, as was pointed out previously. Software has much bigger margins.
Giant Panda
Member
Even if Nintendo somehow made more profit on hardware than on software, the Wii is the only home console from them recently that realistically could have contributed significantly to that. Any videogame company that bases their plans on making Wii levels of money is setting themselves up for failure. Just because Nintendo made more money from hardware in the past doesn't mean they will be able to do so in the future.
Like the PS3, I feel that the 3DS has stagnated in Japan.
PS3 is 7 years old and has every right to stagnate. 3 year old handhelds should not be stagnating.
EDIT: Nintendo systems tend to be frontloaded in Japan though.
Dreams-Visions
Member
I wonder if it looks like Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory in there
The OP points out how Nintendo has made some definitely mistakes this last year and needs to correct them going forward but it's a bit presumptuous imo that it means they are doing major shifts such as going heavily into cellphone development or firing Iwata, especially when they just have put their studios in a new building, have just the last few months have mad more shifts in management such as Iwata taking over running NOA, and they are just now hitting a stride with simultaneous Wii U and 3DS development after difficulties adopting HD development. Those are all changes that haven't really been able to be implemented/gain traction well into 2013, so I don't think we've see the benefits of those changes until the end of 2013 (increased game production, increased advertising of the Wii U with a more focused message, potential improved relationships with Western 3rd parties with Iwata learning more about the market and what those publishers/developers might want from Nintendo, etc.)
I know people are getting a little trigger happy with other new consoles having successful launches but IIRC so did the Vita. The sales trends/predictions of the Wii U don't look great but they can improve with more titles coming more frequently with more advertisement (which will be more effective with more software to back the system). The 3rd party situation will continue to be pretty lackluster imo, even with better sales of the console just due to prevailing attitudes in the industry. Short of Nintendo releasing a paradigm shifting game for the system, I don't see much changing any time soon on that front.
I think 2014 will be a more vital year because the Wii U had a headstart and regardless of how poorly Nintendo took advantage of that, they still have a lead despite the strong start of the other consoles meaning they are still in the race despite what others want to claim. 3rd party support seems like it favors the other consoles over the Wii U already but the games aren't there yet. The Wii U is stronger in that regard than people want to give them credit for and if anecdotal evidence is worth anything, it would seem they still had a good December and the Xbox One may have already begun stalling. A lack of 3rd party support might not really hurt their hardware sales until the other consoles have build up an actual, not hypothetical, difference in software support. That means Nintendo has a chance to turn things around like they did with the 3DS.
OP brought up Japan having consistent number but other parts of the world being more important but I'd say downplaying the Wii U having an upturn in the Japanese market is overlooking how much that market can help the system. The 3DS has been successful predominately from being successful in Japan, from getting Japanese developers on board to just having support that can be localized for other parts of the world and with Nintendo increasing their localization efforts to even help 3rd parties localize games, if they had to do the same with the Wii U, it would mean there would be more games for the system. The Wii U might not be as successful in the West if they had mostly 3rd party support from the East, but it would at least help give the Wii U more of identity and therefore a niche to cater to. Nintendo already has build good relationships with most Japanese publishers and if they give them good reasons to support the console and continue to build a rapport with partnerships, it could start some much needed momentum. There already is an opportunity for Nintendo to capitalize on often neglected genres on consoles such as character action, JRPGs, in some ways survival horror these days, etc. Maybe these genres aren't necessarily past their prime, and having one platform that is dedicated to catering to audiences that want to see those games and allow for budgets and business models that make more financial sense than AAA/multiplatform development probably did for those same genres, than maybe the quality that used to be associated with Japanese development can flourish in this modern industry. We know that there are still audiences for these games, they just need to be tapped.
Nintendo it seems has also begun to take a few more chances with their franchises that have been paying off. I think the most obvious example to me is LoZ: ALBW. It rethought conventions, had a smaller team, had a younger director and lots of fresh new ideas, etc. It was a great example of Nintendo sort of trusting these developers they have been grooming for years and seeing them be able to have big success because of it. Nintendo has been sort of slow to do this but they've had success with recognizing someone like Masahiro Sakurai to have lots of talent at an early age. Hopefully they continue to let their developers do more smaller games as well as slightly bigger scale games I think an injection of new ideas could help the game development side more than the managerial side of things since creativity is the name of the game.
Not to mention many indie games being developed for the Wii U aren't hitting until next year. These are all developers that have been on board and in many cases, the sales don't have to be huge to be a success in the way AAA development does. That scale of development benefits greatly from Nintendo's approach in a way it couldn't on the Wii (but should have been able to). People keep saying indie development is the future of the industry and Nintendo has seemingly created a pretty good environment for them to thrive in. It may or it may not be enough to sustain a console due to the price point, but in combination with existing support, it can fill the gaps between big releases nicely. It already has for the 3DS.
In conclusion, there is no need for Nintendo to throw the baby out with the bathwater. We know they need to continue to make necessary changes for the Wii U to be as successful as it can. I think revising their sales estimate for the fiscal year is all but guaranteed, regardless of how well they did in December, but their future isn't only 1st party games and nothing else on the horizon. The have a lot of work to do, but I don't think the console it in danger of having to be discontinued like people think it is.
I know people are getting a little trigger happy with other new consoles having successful launches but IIRC so did the Vita. The sales trends/predictions of the Wii U don't look great but they can improve with more titles coming more frequently with more advertisement (which will be more effective with more software to back the system). The 3rd party situation will continue to be pretty lackluster imo, even with better sales of the console just due to prevailing attitudes in the industry. Short of Nintendo releasing a paradigm shifting game for the system, I don't see much changing any time soon on that front.
I think 2014 will be a more vital year because the Wii U had a headstart and regardless of how poorly Nintendo took advantage of that, they still have a lead despite the strong start of the other consoles meaning they are still in the race despite what others want to claim. 3rd party support seems like it favors the other consoles over the Wii U already but the games aren't there yet. The Wii U is stronger in that regard than people want to give them credit for and if anecdotal evidence is worth anything, it would seem they still had a good December and the Xbox One may have already begun stalling. A lack of 3rd party support might not really hurt their hardware sales until the other consoles have build up an actual, not hypothetical, difference in software support. That means Nintendo has a chance to turn things around like they did with the 3DS.
OP brought up Japan having consistent number but other parts of the world being more important but I'd say downplaying the Wii U having an upturn in the Japanese market is overlooking how much that market can help the system. The 3DS has been successful predominately from being successful in Japan, from getting Japanese developers on board to just having support that can be localized for other parts of the world and with Nintendo increasing their localization efforts to even help 3rd parties localize games, if they had to do the same with the Wii U, it would mean there would be more games for the system. The Wii U might not be as successful in the West if they had mostly 3rd party support from the East, but it would at least help give the Wii U more of identity and therefore a niche to cater to. Nintendo already has build good relationships with most Japanese publishers and if they give them good reasons to support the console and continue to build a rapport with partnerships, it could start some much needed momentum. There already is an opportunity for Nintendo to capitalize on often neglected genres on consoles such as character action, JRPGs, in some ways survival horror these days, etc. Maybe these genres aren't necessarily past their prime, and having one platform that is dedicated to catering to audiences that want to see those games and allow for budgets and business models that make more financial sense than AAA/multiplatform development probably did for those same genres, than maybe the quality that used to be associated with Japanese development can flourish in this modern industry. We know that there are still audiences for these games, they just need to be tapped.
Nintendo it seems has also begun to take a few more chances with their franchises that have been paying off. I think the most obvious example to me is LoZ: ALBW. It rethought conventions, had a smaller team, had a younger director and lots of fresh new ideas, etc. It was a great example of Nintendo sort of trusting these developers they have been grooming for years and seeing them be able to have big success because of it. Nintendo has been sort of slow to do this but they've had success with recognizing someone like Masahiro Sakurai to have lots of talent at an early age. Hopefully they continue to let their developers do more smaller games as well as slightly bigger scale games I think an injection of new ideas could help the game development side more than the managerial side of things since creativity is the name of the game.
Not to mention many indie games being developed for the Wii U aren't hitting until next year. These are all developers that have been on board and in many cases, the sales don't have to be huge to be a success in the way AAA development does. That scale of development benefits greatly from Nintendo's approach in a way it couldn't on the Wii (but should have been able to). People keep saying indie development is the future of the industry and Nintendo has seemingly created a pretty good environment for them to thrive in. It may or it may not be enough to sustain a console due to the price point, but in combination with existing support, it can fill the gaps between big releases nicely. It already has for the 3DS.
In conclusion, there is no need for Nintendo to throw the baby out with the bathwater. We know they need to continue to make necessary changes for the Wii U to be as successful as it can. I think revising their sales estimate for the fiscal year is all but guaranteed, regardless of how well they did in December, but their future isn't only 1st party games and nothing else on the horizon. The have a lot of work to do, but I don't think the console it in danger of having to be discontinued like people think it is.
The Maverick
Member
Looking at the 3DS attach rate is very interesting when discussing where Nintendo should be concentrating their efforts for the future. Wii U is a failure and though the 3DS was turned around, it's looking to do less than the GBA. I'd hate to be the top dog over there right now.
Once again, great write up by Aqua.
Once again, great write up by Aqua.
I agree with most of your post OP. But the main reason Knack has outsold Mario is due to the lack of Wii U consoles in peoples homes. It has nothing to do with the quality of the games. Its all about market size.
People rushed out in droves to get the PS4.. and... well.. a game. By default, that game got sold. Mario 3d World is a fantastic game, but it isnt a game that will convince people on the fence to go out and buy a Wii U to play it. Like I said, its a great game... but It just isnt "system buying" worthy.
Lastly, Nintendo has become stale. As a long time die hard fan, its quite easy to see where things have started to go wrong.
What the company needs is change. Bottom line. The current group of decision makers in their business have let time pass them by. They no longer understand the wants and needs of consumers. Which is something a company that is struggling HAS to do.
I liken it to a struggling football team. The players take after the personality of their head coach. Once you start seeing players walk around instead of running, when you see losing efforts time and time again with zero accountability... the only answer is change.
Nintendo needs to clean house from top to bottom. I hope something changes soon.
I don't think so. The technology required for an acceptable hybrid experience would also push the hardware beyond the ≤$129 price range where Nintendo handhelds have historically seen most of their success.
I've said it many times on this board and I'll say it again; past Nintendo handhelds sold well because they were incredibly cheap and easily replaceable devices, on top of being home to a vast catalog of quality titles. Even the DS didn't really take off until its price was dropped from the initial $149. With the advent of smartphones and tablets, aggressive, impulse buy pricing is more vital than ever for a dedicated handheld to succeed on today's mainstream market.
The issue of development resources is a very real one, but could easily be addressed by building the next handheld and console on a similar architecture to allow for easy porting of software between the two. Which is something that Nintendo are seemingly in the process of doing. It's one of the few things that Iwata has gotten right in the last 5 years, and I'd be disappointed if that strategy was put on hold just because the Wii U is doing poorly.
theprodigy
Member
stagnating its way to the 2nd best selling system ever over there, behind the DS
You mix shipments with sales.
Since you use Media Create 3DS hw was
Oct-Dec 2012: 2.236.171
Oct-Dec 2013: 1.573.242 with the last week of 2013 missing
The difference with be less than half million for the quarter.
So what kind of big sweeping changes can Nintendo do? Is it hardware, software or something else? We know that Nintendo cannot go H2H against MS/Sony on the hardware front. And I honestly don't see what Nintendo can do to make the Wii U and future consoles more attractive for 3:rd party developes
LegendofLex
Member
Sure, they weren't unprofitable. I would never argue that. What I mean is that New Super Mario Bros. and the Zelda franchise have not established a healthy growth trajectory or even managed to support the clear market demand. Could you enlighten me on how selling ten million copies combined across two platforms in a year is considered the path to good health when the last games BOTH sold more than that in during the same time period? Nintendo never struggled this hard to hit the same sales ballparks with Mario and Zelda during the NES and SNES days.
With NSMBU, you could argue that the massive Wii install base boosted the incredible momentum. And NSMBU was a launch title for Wii U. But NSMB2 dropped on a system that already had an install base, and its momentum was pretty weak relatively speaking. People saw it coming from a mile away, too. Everyone sensed they were phoned in.
And it's no secret that Nintendo hasn't been managing the Zelda series well. Sales have been falling, while games in the same kind of space (Elder Scrolls, Minecraft) have been dominating. Twilight Princess was the last time the series was "cool," and Nintendo seems disappointed by this and keeps trying other things like giving Wind Waker a second chance.
wildfire said:
What I describe as "Wii ambitions" = motion controls
"This narrative" = Nintendo abandoned "Wii ambitions" = Nintendo abandoned motion controls
You = Nintendo "misstepped" because they "pushed motion controls to the back" = Nintendo abandoned motion controls
What is it that you find about my description of the Wii --> Wii U narrative that is "bunk," exactly?
Karsticles said:
Support a direction that isn't driving them into irrelevance? Wii and DS were hugely relevant all of last generation (as long as Nintendo was working to advance the strategies that made them successful, which kind of dropped off in 2010 as they shifted focus to 3DS and Wii U), even if they weren't particularly loved by the kinds of people who would post on NeoGAF.
Father_Brain
Banned
I would love to be wrong about this, but I think Nintendo five years from now will be a shell of its former self regardless of whether or not they remain in the hardware business. The cultural dysfunction at NCL just runs too deep, and they needed to drastically reevaluate their approach by 2008-2009 at the latest, not after their biggest hardware failure to date has already cratered.
Maybe they'll continue producing hardware that's hopelessly out of touch with the market, maybe they'll dive into F2P microtransaction hell, but it's hard to be optimistic given their history.
Maybe they'll continue producing hardware that's hopelessly out of touch with the market, maybe they'll dive into F2P microtransaction hell, but it's hard to be optimistic given their history.
Trogdor1123
Member
I agree with most of this to be honest. I dont thiunk they are incompetent though, just set in their ways. They are the definition of a traditional Japanese company.
I dont think the wiiu is that badly powered either, its badly powered for its price. I really dont see how it costs that much to make it. I know the controller is expensive but certainly its not that bad is it?
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Depends on what you mean by H2H.
They definitely have no intention of competing on a technical specifications scale. But last gen did show that with an appropriate hook and accompanying software their hardware can not only compete, but eclipse MS and Sony's endeavors.
I've said it many times in the past and I still think it's the truth. Nintendo hardware isn't destined to flounder. It happens when their big ideas are just bad ideas.
They need to be in the hardware range of sony/MS consoles, not to do something particular crazy or out of reach for third party (well, for the next generation). They just need a system that can host most of multiplatform titles without additionnal constraints.
This doesn't mean a hardware as powerfull as the others, but in the same range, like was the GC for example. The bad examples are the N64 who hadn't a CD drive, the Wii who was SD when its generation was all about HD, and the Wii U who have 1GB of RAM for games when its generation is all about developers who can't optimize or even release a game without 8GB of it.