Support NeoGAF

[SuperSah]

Goodnight, sweet prince...

LOL.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

ETA?

PR might start trickling in any time now, about an hour for a thread to go up, 2 minutes beyond that for GAF to go down. Hardware numbers might make it into PR or just be softly leaked in the next few hours.

 

[leroidys]

You guys should stop comparing year 1 release lists. Wii U has been doing terribly since month 3. The problem really isn't the software (beyond not having a single game that is a system seller).

 

[Father_Brain]

Regardless of the actual numbers, I don't think that a figure of 150k or 250k will change much. A dreadful end of the year for Wii U don't make me happy, but hopefully it will force Nintendo's execs to act drastically.

Not that I'm not looking forward to NCL's response to the current disaster, but per my post above, there's very little in the way of drastic action that could be taken in the very short term. The most drastic thing they could possibly do in the next few months would probably be to launch a Game Pad-less SKU, and it's difficult to say how much the attendant price cut would actually boost sales.

 

[Roshin]

Well, I have to go to bed. I hope GAF will be back up tomorrow morning.

 

[Calamari41]

The very interesting thing will be to see what happened with Mario 3D World. If that game bombed, then it can be argued that the actual Wii U owners themselves have given up on the system. That will be when Nintendo really needs to make some tough decisions. It's one thing to ride out a console that is selling poorly but which the loyal 5, 10, or 15 million users are regularly buying games for. It's another thing entirely when a console is selling poorly both hardware and software-wise. I was shocked when it turned out that Sonic sold sub-20k. That, in my mind, was a terrible sign.

Just so we're clear: I am not saying Mario bombed, or that I even expect it to have bombed. But that is the key thing that I will be looking at.

 

[Kandinsky]

If this thing sold less than 500k on its second November then yeah we can call it dead D:

 

[Sammy Samusu]

No way Wii U sold 150k because that would put Vita at less than 100k.

150k is what you would expect from Vita.

Either way, 300k would be bad too, so bomba status is all but confirmed.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

As a business, acting drastically is actually not a good thing.
They're probably already ramping up development to games, but that still takes time. There's nothing they can do immediately to change anything.

Well, isn't it their fault in the first place? I think that when people bring a product that has some heavy deficiencies in its presentation or quality, and it sells well, it's worrying - because this somehow authorize them to lower their efforts to a bare minimum.

Nintendo thought to play it safe after the Wii. The market proved they were wrong. Sane people makes mistakes. Sane people do not repeat them.

 

[theprodigy]

If this thing sold less than 500k on its second November then yeah we can call it dead D:

so in other words, it's dead
(even GC didn't pull 500k though, did it)

 

[Riki]

Well, isn't it their fault in the first place? I think that when people bring a product that has some heavy deficiencies in its presentation or quality, and it sells well, it's worrying - because this somehow authorize them to lower their efforts to a bare minimum.

Nintendo thought to play it safe after the Wii. The market proved they were wrong. Sane people makes mistakes. Sane people do not repeat them.

I never said it wasn't their fault.
I'm simply saying that there are no drastic measures that can be taken. They'll stay the course, like all good businesses, hopefully learning from their mistakes.

 

[Celine]

150K?
Bold prediction by Pachter.

 

[Taker666]

I'm still not sure what to expect

I expect it to sell more than Vita...Vita outselling it is the only thing that would shock me (I also expect the press to talk up the Wii U doom while largely ignoring that Sony has a platform in an even worse state).

I wouldn't actually be that surprised if Pachter over estimated the Wii U.

 

[Griss]

The very interesting thing will be to see what happened with Mario 3D World. If that game bombed, then it can be argued that the actual Wii U owners themselves have given up on the system. That will be when Nintendo really needs to make some tough decisions. It's one thing to ride out a console that is selling poorly but which the loyal 5, 10, or 15 million users are regularly buying games for. It's another thing entirely when a console is selling poorly both hardware and software-wise. I was shocked when it turned out that Sonic sold sub-20k. That, in my mind, was a terrible sign.

Just so we're clear: I am not saying Mario bombed, or that I even expect it to have bombed. But that is the key thing that I will be looking at.

This is precisely the thing.

It's one thing for 3rd party software to die on Nintendo platforms. If their own software isn't performing, if they aren't making money on the software, then what is the point of the entire exercise?

The gamecube survived because the 20m people who had it bought the big games. That kept Nintendo in the black. If that doesn't happen with WiiU, then the combo of low install base + low attachment rate would force them to dump it early.

Assuming retail doesn't make that call for them, which here in parts of Europe appears pretty close to happening.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

(I also expect the press to talk up the Wii U doom while largely ignoring that Sony has a platform in an even worse state).

There's nothing left to be said about the Vita, while two new consoles were just released.

Thus, the Wii U doom articles.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Not that I'm not looking forward to NCL's response to the current disaster, but per my post above, there's very little in the way of drastic action that could be taken in the very short term. The most drastic thing they could possibly do in the next few months would probably be to launch a Game Pad-less SKU, and it's difficult to say how much the attendant price cut would actually boost sales.

You know, I totally agree. However, when I mentioned "drastic actions", I meant more of a paradigm shift in the way Nintendo operates than of sudden, immediate measures to save a system. Wii U is flawed to the point in the way it has been introduced to the public that the only remaining thing is to make the console profitable eventually. Probably Nintendo will be able to do it, somehow. Gamecube's numbers are not impossible with some efforts and some changes like dropping the tablet being compulsory.

What it would be nice to see afterwards is a Nintendo that understand that if you really want to target the hardcore, you have to bring more than a Wii U. It's not just about rude power. It's about online infrastructure, indie support, third party long term strategy, and a development friendly environment. And more.

If they want to stick with the casual they were so fond of during the Wii era - that's fine to me, but do it properly, by introducing a real new gameplay controlling scheme and not by copying the market oversaturated by Apple and Samsung. It's a suicide. Everyone has a tablet. What is the incentive to get it one for that price and only for playing games? Geez, sometimes I wonder what they smoke at Nintendo. Want to target the casual? Do it properly and don't target the hardcore at the same time. It's confusing and ineffective, as the Wii U is.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Either way, 300k would be bad too, so bomba status is all but confirmed.

I wonder if people realise this.

Whether it's 300K or 150K, it's still awful. The latter is just another degree of awful.

300K is PSP 2009 levels. And around the same as the 360 sold in January, this year, it's 8th year on the market.

 

[theprodigy]

I wonder if people realise this.

Whether it's 300K or 150K, it's still awful. The latter is just another degree of awful.

300K is PSP 2009 levels. And around the same as the 360 sold in January, this year, it's 8th year on the market.

hey, you never answered my N64 vs PSP question
what were the NPD sales for both of them?

 

[rahmz]

I don't know why they would ever believe people would hop on the "Wii U" brand without confusing it with Wii

I mean, if the selling point was the tablet they should have named the console something like Nintablet???

There are many reasons why Wii U is doing bad but I'm pretty sure that the confusion from the name is probably one of the biggest reasons.

Even now, people think the Wii U is a Wii with a tablet add on lolz.

 

[TheAngryMonkey]

I've had it since day one and for my kids it's clearly, to them, what the NES and SNES were to me growing up. It'll be remembered.

I'm enjoying it too but I'm not blind. Nintendo has no doubt messed up some stuff with Wii U and people have pointed all of it out in countless threads. It's perfect for my kids but they're not yet aware of what it can't do that they're eventually going to wish it did.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we see respectable numbers but Nintendo has nobody to blame but themselves if sales are bad. The games out there are great but Nintendo has done virtually nothing to tell people about them.

 

[eXistor]

If you're going to keep using the same characters, give me story progression, don't spin me a different version of the same basic fairy tale. [/Gross Generalization Over] I only need to buy that game once. When I miss that experience, I can replay the game I already have on the system I already own.

What are you even playing Nintendo games for? You want story in games, Nintendo doesn't really do that; their stories are a mere excuse for the game to exist. You play Nintendo for the gameplay and mechanics. Personally I'd love to see less story in games and maybe focus a bit more on proper game-design.

 

[BlackJace]

I wonder if people realise this.

Whether it's 300K or 150K, it's still awful. The latter is just another degree of awful.

300K is PSP 2009 levels. And around the same as the 360 sold in January, this year, it's 8th year on the market.

Fine, I'll open the champagne at 305k, then.

 

[shinra-bansho]

hey, you never answered my N64 vs PSP question
what were the NPD sales for both of them?

Oh, sorry, I don't have N64 numbers. Aquamarine or Road may be able to help you?

The PSP has sold around 20M though if that helps.

 

[plutoknight]

Oh, sorry, I don't have N64 numbers. Aquamarine or Road may be able to help you?

The PSP has sold around 20M though if that helps.

N64 did ~34M Lifetime, iirc

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I wonder if people realise this.

Whether it's 300K or 150K, it's still awful. The latter is just another degree of awful.

300K is PSP 2009 levels. And around the same as the 360 sold in January, this year, it's 8th year on the market.

Exactly. And december numbers won't differ much. Maybe the system will reach 300-400k if lucky.

The real question is if Iwata will keep his word and take some significant action during the new year. I may be wrong, but the fact that all Wii U's games scheduled are for Q4; the fact that all other major games have been announced long ago and remained kinda....hidden after it became clear Wii U had no bright future....

I wonder if we are at a turnaround point. The system could get a relaunch next year by Mario Kart, a new tablet-less bundle and a massive price drop of 100-150k. Yeah, maybe I'm day dreaming, am I?

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I wonder how Reggie feels right now

was his body ready

Blackace pls

 

[Tookay]

I don't know, to me, it seems like Nintendo games are the ultimate comfort zone, except they want me to keep plunking down $40-60 to [Gross Generalization Incoming] keep playing as the same character rescuing the same damsel from the same distress over and over again. Nintendo games just seem to be the same story, if they bother having one at all, with maybe a new mechanism tossed in. That doesn't interest me. If you're going to keep using the same characters, give me story progression, don't spin me a different version of the same basic fairy tale. [/Gross Generalization Over] I only need to buy that game once. When I miss that experience, I can replay the game I already have on the system I already own.

As for Pikmin, I remember adoring the original on GameCube. It was an experience that was certainly new to me. 30 days to find all the pieces of a ship in order to survive and make it home? Cool enough. And the game was fun, too. And then Pikmin 2 came along and it was... collect for the purposes of collecting? Pay off some schmoe's debt or something? Why do I care about doing that? I played the game for a few "days," and just didn't particularly see the point in continuing. Maybe the point of the game changed after I quit playing, I don't know, but the premise up to that point just wasn't interesting. So it lost me, and Pikmin 3, whatever it's about, isn't going to grab my attention.

Edit: If I backtrack a bit and take myself out of the equation, I'd say that the way I see it from their point of view, is that every few years, they get to reintroduce their characters and their worlds to a whole new generation of gamers, and that has largely worked for them. To the degree that they continually appeal to past generations of players, that works out well for them, too. If it works for them, keep it up, what do I care. But it just isn't going to appeal to me.

Nintendo's stories might be generally be tired and stale, but there's more gameplay mechanics and ideas in a single level of Mario Galaxy than in most of the industry.

And what's incredible is that their best games are like that: taking a concept that most developers would have strung out as a full game, iterating on it by the end of the level to the fullest, and then moving on.

You want story progression? Fine. But Nintendo does things with gameplay progression few others do.

 

[Griss]

I don't know why they would ever believe people would hop on the "Wii U" brand without confusing it with Wii

I mean, if the selling point was the tablet they should have named the console something like Nintablet???

There are many reasons why Wii U is doing bad but I'm pretty sure that the confusion from the name is probably one of the biggest reasons.

Even now, people think the Wii U is a Wii with a tablet add on lolz.

I believe the problem is that Nintendo, in their labs, suffered tunnel vision when making the Wii U Gamepad. They never looked at it and said 'this is a kind of a crappy tablet', they never even thought it was a kind of tablet. They said 'this is the BEST gamepad ever made!' Which it might be! But the public never saw it that way. Rather than comparing it to controllers, they compared it to tablets, a war it is unequipped to fight. A red ocean, if you will.

I think if Nintendo thought that Wii U would have been fighting straight up against the iPad Mini and the likes then they never would have run with the idea.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

What are you even playing Nintendo games for? You want story in games, Nintendo doesn't really do that; their stories are a mere excuse for the game to exist. You play Nintendo for the gameplay and mechanics. Personally I'd love to see less story in games and maybe focus a bit more on proper game-design.

I thought it was obvious I'm not playing (new) Nintendo games. My post detailed the reason why.

 

[ultratruman]

Why is the gamepad so expensive? Is that LCD screen really such an added cost?

It's bewildering to me how they managed to fudge up the pricing so badly when they've been so aggressive in the past.

 

[Father_Brain]

You know, I totally agree. However, when I mentioned "drastic actions", I meant more of a paradigm shift in the way Nintendo operates than of sudden, immediate measures to save a system. Wii U is flawed to the point in the way it has been introduced to the public that the only remaining thing is to make the console profitable eventually. Probably Nintendo will be able to do it, somehow. Gamecube's numbers are not impossible with some efforts and some changes like dropping the tablet being compulsory.

What it would be nice to see afterwards is a Nintendo that understand that if you really want to target the hardcore, you have to bring more than a Wii U. It's not just about rude power. It's about online infrastructure, indie support, third party long term strategy, and a development friendly environment. And more.

If they want to stick with the casual they were so fond of during the Wii era - that's fine to me, but do it properly, by introducing a real new gameplay controlling scheme and not by copying the market oversaturated by Apple and Samsung. It's a suicide. Everyone has a tablet. What is the incentive to get it one for that price and only for playing games? Geez, sometimes I wonder what they smoke at Nintendo. Want to target the casual? Do it properly and don't target the hardcore at the same time. It's confusing and ineffective, as the Wii U is.

Mostly agreed, except for the bolded. I'm not sure if you mean a GC-level hardware LTD or GC-era profits, but both seem overly optimistic to me, given (a) the extremely low current levels of demand, which suggest to me that even a $100 price cut might not have the needed impact; (b) significantly higher software/OS development costs; (c) near-nonexistent licensing revenue from third parties.

 

[Riki]

Why is the gamepad so expensive? Is that LCD screen really such an added cost?

It's bewildering to me how they managed to fudge up the pricing so badly when they've been so aggressive in the past.

It has more to do with the unique video streaming they use than anything.

 

[theprodigy]

N64 did ~34M Lifetime, iirc

NPD only

 

[TAS]

Nintendo thought to play it safe after the Wii. The market proved they were wrong.

You have it backwards. Nintendo did the opposite of play it safe. They shifted their focus to the hardcore gamer and introduced an entirely new control interface. Playing it safe would have been following in the foot steps of its competition--pc friendly hardware and minimal changes to the last gen blueprint.

 

[Xun]

I don't know why they would ever believe people would hop on the "Wii U" brand without confusing it with Wii

I mean, if the selling point was the tablet they should have named the console something like Nintablet???

There are many reasons why Wii U is doing bad but I'm pretty sure that the confusion from the name is probably one of the biggest reasons.

Even now, people think the Wii U is a Wii with a tablet add on lolz.

Despite what people may say, I definitely agree that the name is the biggest issue with the system.

 

[Fourth Storm]

Why is the gamepad so expensive? Is that LCD screen really such an added cost?

It's bewildering to me how they managed to fudge up the pricing so badly when they've been so aggressive in the past.

It's not just the Gamepad, but the processor they've got, despite the hardware profile, is probably costing them. EDRAM and custom PPC CPUs aren't exactly cheap. Neither is a MCM with technology from several discreet companies.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I wonder how Reggie feels right now

was his body ready

Blackace pls

I wonder how much he cares you know. I think he's intelligent enough to know the current situation and also to accept the fact that he cannot operate without NCL authorizing him to do so. In the end people overestimate Reggie's power to change things and underestimate his actual marketing capabilities. Iwata being now in complete control of NOA businesses nails this point of view.

If I were Reggie, I would do my job, without getting too angry. He got a position and experience such that if the ship sinks, he can sure find another well paid job elsewhere. Sometimes I wonder why he didn't do that before - his career is stuck at this height now. Maybe he likes this crazy industry after all.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Sorry for the double post. GAF is currently obviously overused.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

Holy shit, GAF's going down before numbers are even posted.

 

[socialQ]

Man, reading the last few pages you would say Wii U is...doomed.

with these sales, this close to xmas? It's not a reach.

also see: super smash hit PS4.

 

[Cuburt]

There's nothing left to be said about the Vita, while two new consoles were just released.

Thus, the Wii U doom articles.

Well, Sony just tried to up the value of the system by giving it remote play compatibility with the PS4. If that doesn't move Vitas, what does the system even have to look forward to at this point?

It's been out a year longer than the Wii U but the media isn't calling for the death of the handheld like the Wii U nor are they predicting how it's going to weigh down the company in the coming years they still support it like they tend to do with Nintendo, like when the 3DS was struggling or the Wii U now.

 

[sphinx]

tomorrow is going to be a blood bath.... NPD day, right?

even if nintendo tries to hide it, some twitter account will splash the number across the internet (with creamsugar at it) and GAF will crash.

sad days for nintendo. I wish them well, I hope their 3DS business helps them survive this gen.

 

[metalslimer]

Everyone and their mom knows Vita is a miserable failure with no chance of ever recovering in the west. Of course everyone will discuss Wii U

 

[Graphics Horse]

tomorrow is going to be a blood bath.... NPD day, right?

even if nintendo tries to hide it, some twitter account will splash the number across the internet (with creamsugar at it) and GAF will crash.

sad days for nintendo. I wish them well, I hope their 3DS business helps them survive this gen.

Gaf crashed already, it's due now or in 35mins I'm not sure.

 

[Pop-O-Matic]

tomorrow is going to be a blood bath.... NPD day, right?

even if nintendo tries to hide it, some twitter account will splash the number across the internet (with creamsugar at it) and GAF will crash.

sad days for nintendo. I wish them well, I hope their 3DS business helps them survive this gen.

Today's NPD day. Haven't you noticed how many times GAF's gone down recently?

 

[Green Biker Dude]

it's doing worse than the dreamcast? wow. i didn't think it was doing that bad

 

[Downhome]

Still nothing specific for Wii U yet?

 

[fluffydelusions]

Nothing about Wii U yet? What is that they say about silence again?

 

[Cygnus X-1]

At least it seems fair now that 150k was indeed a very low estimate figure.

 

[Rafterman]

At least it seems fair now that 150k was indeed a very low estimate figure.

Not really. Actual amount is like 220k, which is still abysmal.